Global Ag News for Sept 27.24

TOP HEADLINES

Russia’s IKAR consultancy cuts wheat, grain crop forecasts for 2024

Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy has cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop to 81.8 million metric tons from 82.2 million tons and for the grain crop to 124.5 million tons from 125 million tons, it said on Thursday.

Dmitry Rylko, the head of IKAR, told Reuters the main reason for the lower forecasts was damage to crops in eastern regions of Russsia due to waterlogged soil.

In September, five regions in Siberia declared a state of emergency due to problems with crops caused by heavy and prolonged rainfall.

IKAR maintained its forecast for wheat exports in the 2024/25 season at 44 million tons, and for total grain exports at 53 million tons, but did not rule out future potential downward revisions.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $2.40; Soyoil down 0.38.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 12 in SRW, up 11 3/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 11 1/4; Soybeans up 35; Soymeal up $10.20; Soyoil up 1.50.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 28 3/4 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, up 8 in HRS; Corn is up 11 3/4; Soybeans up 43 3/4; Soymeal up $16.20; Soyoil up 0.51.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.6% in SRW, down 10.3% in HRW, down 15.7% in HRS; Corn is down 12.4%; Soybeans down 19.1%; Soymeal down 15.3%; Soyoil down 10.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 54 yuan; Soymeal down 8; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil up 86; Corn up 36 — Malaysian Palm is down 100.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 100 ringgit (-2.41%) at 4052.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 352 Soyoil; 126 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 26 were: SRW Wheat up 6,667 contracts, HRW Wheat down 337, Corn up 6,678, Soybeans up 4,280, Soymeal down 6,141, Soyoil down 10,135.

 

Northern Plains: The region should be dry through the weekend, favorable for maturing crops. Some areas that are further behind would like to see some rain, however. A front will move Sunday and Monday, but not bring much in the way of showers. Temperatures are forecast to be quite warm into next week, though another front will move through in the middle of next week and could bring a brief burst of cooler air. 

Central/Southern Plains: An upper-level low has moved into the eastern portions of the region. It will keep temperatures down for the next couple of days, but then they will rise going into next week. Though a couple of fronts may come through next week, precipitation is not forecast. The lack of rainfall is a bit of a concern for winter wheat establishment. 

Midwest: A front brought widespread showers and some areas of heavy rain the last several days. An upper-level low stalling to the southwest will bring the remnant low of Hurricane Helene up into the southern end of the region Friday, with areas of heavy rain near the Ohio River that will turn into lighter showers going through the weekend. A front should push the lows out early next week and could have some showers of its own. Harvest could be impacted by the recent and forecast rain, though winter wheat areas would like to see the increased moisture. And the water moving into the Ohio Valley should help to reduce the drought there and build water levels for the Mississippi River as well. 

Delta: An upper-level low is stalling out in the region and will pull up Hurricane Helene into the U.S. on Thursday and Friday. The remnant low of the hurricane is forecast to wrap back to the west on Friday, bringing potential heavy rain to northern areas before turning into lighter showers for the weekend. The pair of lows will be pushed eastward early next week. Any more bouts of heavy rain could further degrade quality of soybeans and cotton in the region awaiting harvest, but would aid water levels on the Mississippi River, especially with the rain moving into the Ohio Valley. 

Southeast: Hurricane Helene will make landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida late on Thursday. Though it should quickly dissipate from hurricane status as it moves northward, the remnant low and another upper-level low will spin around just off to the west for several days afterward, which could keep showers in the region into next week before getting pushed eastward. Heavy rain would likely degrade the remaining crop in the field, and open-boll cotton especially, but would obviously have a positive impact on the ongoing drought in the region. 

Canadian Prairies: A couple of disturbances and low-pressure systems will move over the next week, but potential for significant rainfall is low. Heavy rain from last week probably caused delays to the remaining harvest, however. 

Brazil: A front that had stalled over the far south will move northward Thursday, but fizzle out as it continues north on Friday. Some areas of heavy rain have fallen recently, good for increasing soil moisture for spring planting, but some areas are still very dry. Spotty wet season showers will start in central Brazil, and Mato Grosso specifically, by the weekend. However, they will not be very consistent and it may take until deeper into October for them to do so. With how hot and dry it has been over the last several months, producers will likely wait longer to start planting soybeans. If they have to wait too long, it could cause significant issues for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops. 

Argentina: Drought across the west and north has delayed corn planting and been damaging to developing to reproductive winter wheat. A front stalled in northern areas is moving north on Thursday, but showers have been very limited. The next significant system comes early next week, but rainfall is currently forecast to remain spotty as it moves through, largely missing the driest areas in the west. 

Europe: A strong system moving through Europe will continue to bring widespread rainfall and strong winds for the next couple of days, as well as a burst of cooler air. Another system will be possible early next week, spreading more rain through the continent. The heaviest rains are forecast for France, Germany, and the UK. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture, but could delay winter wheat planting where heavy. 

Black Sea: Western areas have adequate soil moisture, but the majority of eastern Ukraine and western Russia have endured heat and drought for several months, creating very poor conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment. A front produced very spotty rains in western areas Wednesday with another moving into that area over the weekend, with more limited rainfall. Eastern areas continue to be missed by systems. Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue to be unfavorable for wheat, which has a limited time before frosts and freezes start to become more likely in October. 

Australia: A system spread needed rainfall over eastern areas the last couple of days, which was needed, and continues with some showers in the northeast for Friday. The system is bringing in some cold air though and could cause frosts across the southeast, where crops are less developed but still vulnerable. Another system is passing through western areas with showers Thursday and Friday. The front to that system may or may not bring much precipitation to eastern areas this weekend and more systems are lining up to move through next week.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 26 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 115,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 112,580 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a tender seeking the same volume which closed on Sept. 25.
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from either South America or South Africa only
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley with an Oct. 2 deadline.
• FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have made no major purchase in a tender which closed on Sept. 24 for 120,000 tons of animal feed barley. 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued an international tender to purchase around 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 1.57M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 535K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Sept. 19.

• Corn sales fell to 535k tons vs 847k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 169k tons vs 258k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 1,575k tons vs 1,757k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Sept. 19, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 870k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Colombia with 168k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Chile with 83k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Sept. 19, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 13k tons of the 28k tons of pork sold in the week
• China led in beef purchases

 

Argentina exchange could trim corn forecast on lack of rain

Argentina’s Buenos Aires grains exchange could cut its forecast for the size of fields planted with corn this season if the South American nation’s farming heartlands do not receive rain in the coming weeks, it said on Thursday.

The exchange currently predicts that farmers in Argentina, a major global supplier of grains and the world’s third-largest corn exporter, will plant some 6.3 million hectares of corn for the 2024/25 season.

It also forsees a 47 million metric ton harvest.

“Contributing (farmers) say that their early planting plans may not be met if there is no rain in the next 15 to 20 days,” it said in a weekly report.

Northern and western parts of Argentina’s agricultural core have suffered from months of very low rainfall, slowing planting. So far, corn farmers have sown just 10.5% of the expected area.

Last month, farmers and technicians told Reuters that the lack of rain as well a leafhopper insect plague affecting corn fields were pushing growers to pivot to soybeans.

Argentina is also a major supplier of wheat, which is largely grown in the south of the agricultural area.

The exchange said that recent rains in this area was favoring development, and on Wednesday bumped up its harvest estimate to 18.6 million tons. Farmers will begin the wheat harvest in November.

 

India Considering Raising Ethanol Prices: Food Minister

The government is considering raising the price of ethanol, according to Food Minister Pralhad Joshi.

• The authorities are also examining a proposal to increase the minimum sale price of sugar, he said on the sidelines of a sugar and bio-energy conference in Delhi on Thursday
• NOTE: The current benchmark sale price of sugar is 31 rupees per kilogram
• The government will examine the industry’s demand to allow sugar exports in 2024-25 after assessing production and closing stockpiles, the minister said
• NOTE: Brazil Sugar Losses Make Thai and Indian Supply More Important

 

French Soft-Wheat and Winter-Barley Planting Underway: AgriMer

Some 1% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, in line with the five-year average, office FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• Winter-barley crop was 2% planted, compared with a five-year average of 1%
• Durum wheat was 1% planted, steady from a week earlier
• Some 79% of French corn was in good or very good condition, slightly lower than the week before; That compares with 82% a year earlier

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Sept. 24: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Sept. 24, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought fell by a percentage point from the previous week to 25%
• Soybean crops dropped by 3 points to 30% in drought

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 502k tons in the week ending Sept. 21 from 367k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 54.9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 14.5% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $29.37 per short ton, a decline of $2.99 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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