Global Ag News For Sept 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Australia Pledges $735 Million to Kickstart Biofuels Industry

Australia will spend A$1.1 billion ($735 million) over a decade to assist growth in a local sustainable fuel sector, an announcement likely to be welcomed by the grains industry, which has been seeking a boost from Canberra for years.

The funds will stimulate private investment to allow the first domestic production of cleaner fuels as soon as 2029, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in an emailed statement on Wednesday. Australia had all the elements required to make biofuels in abundance, including canola and sorghum, he added.

“Low-carbon liquid fuels are an enormous economic opportunity for Australia,” Chalmers said.

While many other major agricultural exporters, including the US and Brazil, have shifted toward production of sustainable fuels using produce to boost margins and cut emissions, Australia has often lagged, to the frustration of the sector.

Australian commodities trader GrainCorp welcomed the government’s announcement. Its head of agri-energy, Jesse Scott, said in a separate statement that about 70% of the nation’s canola is exported unprocessed before being used overseas in renewable fuel production.

“We want to bring that value-add home and turn our canola into renewable fuels, to ensure there’s a future made in Australia,” Scott said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, down 1 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil down 0.58.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 10 1/2 in SRW, up 7 3/4 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil up 0.44.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1/4 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/2; Soybeans down 9 1/4; Soymeal down $2.50; Soyoil up 0.48.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.2% in SRW, down 6.6% in HRW, down 3.3% in HRS; Corn is down 6.5%; Soybeans up 4.7%; Soymeal down 6.9%; Soyoil up 31.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 20 yuan; Soymeal down 27; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil up 10; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 3.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 3 ringgit (-0.07%) at 4442.

There were changes in registrations (-15 Oats, -35 Corn, -19 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 140 Oats; 91 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 48 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 16 were: SRW Wheat down 843 contracts, HRW Wheat up 556, Corn up 24,665, Soybeans up 9,179, Soymeal up 4,319, Soyoil down 1,688.

 

WARMTH TO SUPPORT NORTH AMERICAN SPRING CROP HARVESTS THROUGH LATE SEPTEMEBR

What to Watch:

• Warm conditions should dominate across the spring crop areas of U.S. and Canada through the next 2-3 weeks
• Rains in the northwest Corn Belt will continue for the next 7 days, causing local harvest disruptions and impacting crop quality

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the region over the last several days. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

Central/Southern Plains: Areas of showers moved through over the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain pushed back the drydown of corn and soybeans. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week and should push south and east out of the area this weekend. Rainfall in the southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

Midwest: Temperatures increased over the weekend and remain hot this week. Isolated showers continue over western areas early-mid week. The showers will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

Delta: Only spotty showers are in the forecast for the next couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to lower on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is possible.

Brazil: Spring planting is underway across the south, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. A front that moved through Sunday and Monday produced some more rainfall for these areas, but is losing its rainfall as it moves northward. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there.

Argentina: Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it in the middle of this week, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

Black Sea: Showers fell across far western Ukraine over the weekend and continue there early this week. The system responsible will bring showers eastward later this week with increasing rainfall for very dry areas across the east. That may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought and dryness is likely to follow after the system moves out.

 

The player sheet for 9/16 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 16,000 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tons of soft milling wheat
• FEED GRAIN TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Sept. 12 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.083m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.856m bbl vs 22.837m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 8.5%

August placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.81m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• That would be the lowest August level since 2015
• Estimates range from -11.4% to -4% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Sept. 1 seen falling by 0.8% y/y to 11.11m head
• Marketings seen falling 13% y/y

 

Brazil 2025 Soy Crush Estimate Raised 0.7% to 58.5m Tons: Abiove

Brazil is now expected to produce 45.1 million metric tons of soy meal in 2025, up 0.7% from an August estimate, industry group Abiove said in a statement.

• Bean oil output estimate raised 0.4% to 11.7 million tons
• Soybean production estimate kept unchanged at 170.3 million tons

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 7.53 million tns in September – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.53 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 7.43 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.19 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 2.11 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.12 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 6.96 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 34% Y/y So Far; French Data Absent

The EU’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled about 3.78m tons as of Sept. 14. compared with 5.73m tons for a similar period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Saudi Arabia (569k tons), Jordan (271k tons) and Morocco (250k tons)
• Barley exports were about 1.8m tons, up 24% y/y
• Corn imports total 2.5m tons, down 43% y/y
• NOTE: The commission said export data is incomplete for France since the start of 2024 and missing for the 2025-26 season
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season
  • Import data for Romania is missing since August 2025
  • Commission said it is working to resolve the issue

 

Export duty on Russian wheat increases 2.9-fold to 495.9 rubles per tonne starting Sept 17 – Agriculture *Ministry

The export duty on Russian wheat is 495.9 rubles per tonne as of September 17, compared to 168.6 rubles the week before, the Agriculture Ministry said.

It has thus increased 2.9-fold.

The duty rate on barley remain at zero. The duty on corn, after five weeks at zero, is amounted to 398.2 rubles per tonne.

The rates were calculated based on indicative prices of $226.3 per tonne for wheat ($226.6 for the previous period), $209.7 for barley ($207.2) and $223.1 for corn ($221.3).

The new rates will be in effect through September 23 inclusive.

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX: MOEX). Duty rates were initially calculated in dollars and in rubles since July 2022. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

The reference price for calculating the export duty on wheat was initially 15,000 rubles per tonne and the reference price on barley and corn was 13,875 rubles per tonne. These were raised in June 2023 to 17,000 rubles per tonne and 15,875 rubles per tonne, respectively. The prices were raised again on June 28, 2024, to 18,000 rubles per tonne for wheat and 16,875 rubles per tonne for barley and corn. From July 24, 2025, the base price for barley was raised to 17,875 rubles per tonne, while the wheat price remains unchanged.

 

US EPA keeps all options open in biofuel reallocation proposal

• EPA proposes two primary options of 50% and 100% reallocation
• Biofuel industry pushing for maximum but refiners balking at cost
• Industry representatives say EPA’s proposal fails to provide clarity

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday issued a proposal for reallocating to large refineries the biofuel blending obligations waived under the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program, offering two primary options of 50% and 100%.

Additionally, the agency said it will ask for comment on other potential volumes, such as 25%, 75% or none at all.

The proposal’s failure to narrow down potential options is destined to extend the latest clash between Big Oil and Big Farm over the issue, as both industries vie for influence over U.S. energy and agricultural policy.

Biofuel groups want full reallocation to ensure the small refinery waivers do not dent demand for products like corn-based ethanol, while refiners oppose reallocation citing costs.

Industry officials from both sectors called the EPA proposal a “punt” and said the 45-day comment period will be crucial. “With every option on the table, we didn’t get much clarity today,” said one of the officials, who asked not to be named criticizing the agency.

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard requires refiners to blend billions of gallons of biofuels into the country’s fuel pool each year or buy credits called RINs from those who do.

But it also allows smaller refiners to apply for waivers under the SRE program if they can show the requirements would cause them financial hardship.

The EPA in August cleared a backlog of more than 170 SRE requests dating back to 2016 — a sweeping move that required it to come up with the plan to account for waived obligations. The EPA was only required to come up with a plan to reallocate exempted gallons dating back to 2023, however, because RINs generated for previous years have already expired. The EPA proposal said 2.18 billion RINs worth of blending obligations will have been exempted from 2023 through 2025.

“We support EPA’s proposed option to fully reallocate 2023-2025 SREs and believe such an approach will ensure intended levels of renewable fuel consumption are maintained over the long-term,” said Geoff Cooper, head of the Renewable Fuels Association biofuel trade group.

 

EPA Proposes Large Refineries Offset Waived Biofuel Quotas

The US government is considering two proposals that will likely help farmers by requiring larger oil processors to make up for lost biofuel demand after the Trump Administration earlier waived some blending requirements for small refiners.

Under one of the proposals, fuel makers would have to take 50% of the blending obligations for 2023, 2024 and 2025 that were originally assigned to small refineries granted exemptions, the Environmental Protection Agency said in a notice. The second suggests a 100% reallocation of waived requirements through additional mandated volumes during the 2026-27 period.

If adopted, either proposal would likely represent a victory for farmers, crop processors and biofuel makers and it would ease concerns over demand being eroded by waivers typically granted to small refineries. Meanwhile, the measures would be poised to place additional burdens on large crude oil processors.

Shares of biofuel feedstock supplier Darling Ingredients Inc. surged as much as 10% after the news. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. gained as much as 4%, with Bunge Global SA jumping 4.7%. Small oil processors including Delek US Holdings and CVR Energy Inc. also climbed.

The EPA will receive comments on the proposal through Oct. 31 before issuing a final decision.

In June, the EPA proposed a significant increase in the amount of biofuels that refineries need to blend into gasoline and diesel supplies. Last month, the agency granted some small oil refineries exemptions from blending mandates for 2023 and 2024.

“With this proposal, EPA acknowledges how important biofuels like ethanol are to the rural economy,” Emily Skor, the chief executive officer of biofuel trade group Growth Energy, said in a statement.

The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers criticized the move, saying it will further increase costs for fuelmakers and consumers.

“Consider EPA’s announcement a multi-billion dollar-addendum to its already-historic $70 billion-per-year RFS proposal,” the group said in a statement. “Americans and US refiners should not have to pay for this nonsense.”

 

Ethanol Output in Brazil to Grow 17% in Two Years: Evolua

World’s second-largest ethanol maker Brazil should produce 42 billion liters of the fuel in the 2027-28 season, according to Evolua, one of the country’s largest traders of the biofuel owned by Copersucar and Vibra.

• That compares with 36 billion liters in the current 2025-26 season, Evolua CEO Pedro Paranhos says during conference in Sao Paulo
  • Most new supply seen coming from corn ethanol, which is expected to grow by 4 billion liters in the period
• Ethanol prices should fall for that additional supply to be absorbed by Brazil’s domestic market
  • NOTE: Most of Brazil’s cars can run on any mix of ethanol or gasoline, and lower prices can stimulate Brazilian consumers to choose the biofuel

 

Higher yields in Stavropol increase 2025/26 Russian wheat production

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 84.7 [83.0-88.2] MILLION TONS, 1.5 % FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Russian wheat production is increased to 84.7 [83.0-88.2] million tons (MMT), 60.3 MMT of winter wheat and 24.4 MMT of spring wheat. Our current estimate does not include occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

Over the past two weeks, moderate temperatures and dry weather were persistent over the continent, supporting rapid harvest. Despite severe drought in North Caucasian District, the Stavropol region is expected to have record high yields since 2016. NDVI values in Stavropol remained consistently above the long-term median from April to July, indicating favorable crop conditions during key growth stages. Similarly, vegetation density index (NDVI) values in Central, Volga, and Siberian District also exceeded the long-term median, indicating good spring wheat condition. Based on these indicators, our national-level yield has been revised upward to 3.24 t/ha.

According to the latest weather forecasts, moderate temperatures are expected across the continent, while rainfall in spring wheat regions over the next two weeks may disrupt harvest operations.

 

Recent weather maintains 2025/26 Kazakhstan wheat production

2025/26 KAZAKHSTAN WHEAT PRODUCTION: 16.3 [15.5-17.2] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Kazakhstan wheat production remains steady at 16.3 [15.5-17.2] million tons. Over the past two weeks, Kazakhstan experienced cooler temperatures, and precipitation surpluses (10-40 mm above normal), halting harvesting fieldwork in some regions. On the other hand, above-average vegetation density index (NDVI) values in the major wheat-producing regions continue to suggest good crop conditions. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of September 15, 7.8 million hectares (11.6 million tons) of grains have been harvested by farmers.

Looking ahead, cooler temperatures and heavy rains will be in store till the end of the week. Starting from next week, warmer temperatures and dry weather are forecasted in the North, which will be supportive to facilitate the completion of harvesting campaign.

 

 

 

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