Global Ag News For Oct 30.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Mexico agriculture secretary says still no date for restarting cattle exports to U.S.

Mexican Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue said on Wednesday that Mexico and the United States have not yet set a date to resume Mexican cattle exports amid an outbreak of the flesh-eating screwworm parasite.

Berdegue said he spoke to U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in a video conference and that they had made advances but still did not have a date for reopening the U.S. border to Mexican cattle.

“We have made considerable progress, and I am very optimistic,” he said in President Claudia Sheinbaum’s dailymorning press conference.

They agreed to test modular mobile plants in Mexico that could increase sterile fly production by up to 20 million additional flies each week if successful, Berdegue said, adding that this was the first case of the plants being used.

The U.S. government has kept its border mostly closed to Mexican cattle imports since May as the screwworm, which infests and can kill livestock if untreated, has moved from Central American into Mexico, rattling the livestock sectors of both countries.

Mexico is also working to open a sterile fly plant in southern Chiapas state in 2026, with the help of a $21 million investment by the U.S. It is expected to eventually produce 100 million flies weekly.

The technique involves breeding millions of flies, sterilizing them with radiation, and releasing them into the wild. When sterile males mate with wild females, no offspring are produced, and the population collapses over time.

“We will only be able to get it out of the country once we have the additional 100 million flies,” Berdegue said.

Sheinbaum had said last week that Berdegue would travel to the U.S. to meet with his counterparts in person with the aim of reaching an agreement on the reopening of the border.

The Mexican president announced on Monday that she and President Donald Trump agreed to extend a looming trade deadline for “a few more weeks” to discuss pending issues with Washington.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 9 1/4 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans down 19 1/4; Soymeal down $2.60; Soyoil down 0.69.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 14 1/4 in SRW, up 15 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans up 23 1/4; Soymeal up $15.50; Soyoil down 0.55.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 in SRW, up 14 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/4; Soybeans up 55; Soymeal up $32.80; Soyoil down 0.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.5% in SRW, down 7.6% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 5.9%; Soybeans up 7.1%; Soymeal up 0.7%; Soyoil up 25.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 12 yuan; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil up 54; Palm oil down 14; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 8.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 8 ringgit (+0.19%) at 4260.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 493 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 29 were: SRW Wheat down 4,999 contracts, HRW Wheat up 668, Corn down 20,920, Soybeans down 11,267, Soymeal down 9,431, Soyoil up 7,015.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 29 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth will return to North America crop regions next week and beyond, facilitating any remaining crop harvest/planting activities
• SOUTH AMERICA: Brazil rains will expand over most crop regions through the next 10-15 days, including flooding risks for Southern Brazil that could damage corn/soybean plantings
• AFRICA: Increasing rains along the Ivory Coast and Ghana over the next couple weeks will slow the cocoa harvest
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Dry conditions in Malaysia into mid-November could become a long-term threat to palm oil if such weather persists, but it will have minimal impacts short-term
• TROPICS: After devastating western Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa is now making landfall in eastern Cuba as a major Category 3 storm, bringing significant wind/flooding damage to that region as well

 

WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ACROSS THE PAMPAS CROPLANDS

What to Watch:

• The expansion of dry conditions across the Argentinian Pampas should benefit wheat following the recent rains and also support the spring crop sowings
• Persistent rains across south-central Brazil will affect planting progress across Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana

 

Northern Plains: The region will be watching several little systems and fronts moving through the region through the first week of November, though precipitation looks rather light. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but the forecast is trending above-normal starting this weekend.

Central/Southern Plains: A system brought scattered showers over the last couple of days, adding to the heavy rain from the weekend. That should help with some of the drought that had been spreading through the region, and fill soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier going into November, though, giving those with fieldwork to do some opportunity in which to do so.

Midwest: A system is curling around the southern and eastern portions of the region for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers, followed by a little burst of cooler air. This is after bringing some moderate to heavy rainfall to western areas on Tuesday. Some additional showers may develop in that cooler air over the weekend and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should create some variable conditions. That may cause issues with harvest and other fieldwork in some areas.

Delta: A system is moving through on Wednesday and brought another round of scattered showers and moderate rain, which is helping to reduce drought in the region. The forecast for Mississippi River water levels has improved since earlier this week, bringing about a period of somewhat higher levels for early November. The area will trend drier again after the system passes on Wednesday, though.

Brazil: A front is moving into central Brazil and will restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers did not make as much progress on soybean planting last week as expected, which may be due to the dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread rainfall.

Argentina: It is much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost would have been very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage. Systems continue to push through the country going into early November, bringing through scattered showers that have kept soil moisture high for planting and early growth of corn. However, this also brings through cooler temperatures that will keep growth slow. Winter wheat prospects are high this year because of all the rainfall, though that may be causing more disease pressure, as well.

Europe: The continent has seen many waves of showers over the last couple of weeks, and more will move through into next week, being very favorable for winter wheat establishment. The rain may have led to some significant delays in fieldwork, though.

Black Sea: Rainfall over the last week has been overall favorable for the region to improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. Another round of showers will move through Friday and Saturday, but the region will trend drier afterward as systems are more likely to move across the north in early November. That should keep temperatures temperatures warmer for a while and hold off dormancy, which typically starts to occur for northern areas in early November. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: Scattered showers went through eastern Australia earlier this week, providing some limited benefit to a few dry spots. Showers will be tougher to find for the rest of the week, but a system moving through this weekend has increasing showers forecast for eastern areas. Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn’t hit all areas that have been dry. Conditions may have improved for filling winter wheat and canola, but are still mixed.

China: Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

 

The player sheet for 10/29 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: China’s state-owned COFCO bought three U.S. soybean cargoes, two trade sources said, the country’s first purchases from this year’s U.S. harvest, shortly before a summit of leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday 

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 250,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3. Bangladesh issued another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal-feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

 

 

 

TODAY

Ukraine’s October Grains, Legumes Exports Down 38,4% Y/y

Ukraine’s exports of grains and legumes in October dropped to 2.28m tons, down by more than a third from the volume recorded the same time last year, according to a statement from the agriculture ministry.

• Total exports since the start of the marketing season on July 1 slumped 36,7% to almost 9m tons
• As of Oct. 29, the shipments include:
  • 6.15m tons of wheat, down 20% y/y
  • 1m tons of barley, down 37,3% y/y
  • 1.57m tons of corn, down 65% y/y
• Ukrainian farmers continue winter sowing and harvesting campaign:
  • Winter crops are planted across 5.35m hectares, or 82% of the planned areas for the season
    • That’s less than the 5.7m hectares already planted at this time last year
    • Winter wheat planted on 3.86m hectares vs 4.1m hectares a year ago
  • Grain harvest reached 37,56m tons vs 45.1m tons a year ago
    • Wheat harvest at 22.8m tons vs 22.3m tons a year ago

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales For Week of Oct. 23

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts.

USDA’s export sales report for the week ending Oct. 23 was originally scheduled for Thursday but is delayed indefinitely due to the government shutdown

• Corn est. range 1,100k – 2,100k tons, with avg of 1,475k
• Soybean est. range 700k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,200k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2% to 22.367M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.003 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.091m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.113m

Key issues at Trump-Xi talks in South Korea

U.S. President Donald Trump met China’s leader Xi Jinping on Thursday in a summit the U.S. side said yielded an agreement on a range of trade and technology issues that had ratcheted up tension between the world’s two biggest economies.

Chinese state media quoted Xi as saying both had “reached a consensus” on resolving “important economic and trade issues”.

Here are key issues discussed, according to the U.S. side:

TARIFFS

Trump said he would immediately reduce tariffs on China by 10 percentage points.

That came after Beijing agreed to resume U.S. soybean purchases, pledged to keep rare earths exports flowing and offered assurances that China would crack down on the illicit trade of fentanyl, Trump said.

Trump said U.S. tariffs on China would fall to about 47%, from 57% after the immediate suspension of a 10% levy Trump ordered over fentanyl.

Trump had previously threatened an additional tariff of 100% on Chinese goods from November 1 in retaliation for China’s expanded rare earth export controls, but he told reporters aboard Air Force One the threat would not materialise.

He said the broad trade agreement between the United States and China would run for one year, adding that he expected it to be renewed annually.

FENTANYL

Trump said Xi had promised “strong action” on the export of precursor chemicals used in fentanyl production, which has contributed to nearly 450,000 U.S. overdose deaths.

That would include prosecutions in China, Trump said, adding that he expected Xi would take “very strong measures against those who don’t obey”.

Beijing had sought an elimination of fentanyl-related duties, arguing it had already stepped up enforcement.

In the past, China has also expressed “sympathy” for the fentanyl crisis in the United States and said its government needed to take steps to control demand for drugs.

RARE EARTHS

Trump said the agreement with Xi had removed roadblocks over export controls for rare earth metals that China tightened in April. Those measures led to shortages of rare earth magnets needed for a range of advanced manufacturing, including autos.

Beijing has not yet commented on the details of changes under the agreement Trump described.

China produces more than 90% of the world’s processed rare earths and rare earth magnets used in many modern devices, from smartphones to fighter jets.

SOYBEAN PURCHASES

Trump said China, which takes more than 60% of world soybean imports, had committed to buy U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products.

Beijing had effectively boycotted U.S. soybean imports this year due to the trade war, with the lack of Chinese demand having hurt U.S. farmers.

Ahead of the meeting, China bought its first cargoes of U.S. soybeans in several months, in a gesture Trump praised as a display of goodwill.

China bought more than half of U.S.-grown soybeans in 2023 and 2024. U.S. exports to China peaked in 2022 at a value of $17.92 billion.

SEMICONDUCTORS

Trump said the two sides had discussed China’s access to U.S.-made chips, including AI chips made by industry leader Nvidia NVDA.O. Trump said that did not include the Blackwell chip, Nvidia’s most advanced offering.

Chinese authorities had tightened some controls over Nvidia chip imports and urged domestic tech companies to buy locally in the run-up to Thursday’s meeting.

China has vowed to develop its strategic industries in efforts to attain technological self-reliance, moves it sees as key to bolstering its position in an intensifying rivalry with the United States.

The United States has been trying to limit China’s access to advanced chips since 2019. Those export controls were expanded under the Biden administration.

TAIWAN

Trump said Taiwan never came up in his talks with Xi.

Some experts had expressed fears that Trump might offer concessions over Taiwan. U.S. law requires Washington to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

Since taking office earlier this year, Trump has vacillated on his position towards the democratically governed island claimed by China. Trump has yet to approve any new U.S. arms sales to Taipei.

On Sunday, Chinese state media said Chinese H-6K bombers recently flew near Taiwan to practise “confrontation drills.”

 

China, Canada discuss developing agriculture and food trade

Sun Meijun, head of China’s General Administration of Customs, met with Canadian Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald in Beijing on Thursday to discuss developing agriculture and food trade, the Chinese customs authority said.

The two officials also exchanged views on properly addressing their respective concerns, the authority said, without providing further details.

 

Argentina oilseed union could strike next week with salary deal far off

Argentina’s oilseed workers’ union SOEA and industry chamber CIARA are “very far” from reaching a wage deal, a SOEA leader said on Wednesday, warning a strike could begin next week if no agreement is reached.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, and unions in the sector have a history of labor disputes with companies.

“We’re still very far apart,” said Martin Morales, secretary of the Oilseed Workers and Employees Union (SOEA), referring to negotiations with oilseed industry chamber CIARA over a wage adjustment.

CIARA has proposed adjusting union workers’ wages based on inflation data published by national statistics agency INDEC, as has been done in the past.

SOEA, however, distrusts INDEC’s inflation figures and is demanding a 26% increase for the September–December period.

“We hope to reach an agreement. We are going to try to find one,” CIARA President Gustavo Idigoras told Reuters.

SOEA had announced an open-ended strike earlier this month together with the Oilseed Federation Union, but the Argentine government imposed a mandatory conciliation the same day, requiring both sides to suspend the strike while talks continued.

On Tuesday, Argentina’s labor secretariat extended the conciliation period until the morning of Thursday, November 6. If no agreement is reached, SOEA may resume strike actions.

“We have these days to work things out. And if we do not reach an agreement by next Thursday, a strike will be imminent — and who knows how long it will last,” Morales said.

 

Brazil’s soybean crushing to hit record in 2025/26, says Rabobank

Brazil’s soybean crushing is expected to reach a record 60 million metric tons in 2025/26, Rabobank estimated on Wednesday, up from 58 million tons in the previous season.

Rabobank forecast the country’s 2025/26 soybean crop at 177 million tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, while soybean exports were projected at 111 million tons, stable from the previous season.

 

Indonesia Expects to Get 0% Tariff From US on Key Commodities

Indonesia still expects to get 0% tariffs from the US on goods such as palm oil, cocoa and rubber, Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto says in Jakarta on Wednesday.

• Indonesia expects to receive US tariff rates “almost similar to Malaysia”
• Indonesia seeking lower tariffs on commodities that are part of medical industry supply chain

 

Indonesia steps up efforts to achieve soybean self-sufficiency

Indonesia has reaffirmed its commitment to achieving soybean self-sufficiency, with the government expanding cooperation between the defense and agriculture sectors to boost domestic production.

Speaking during a soybean harvest in North Lampung, Lampung Province, on Wednesday, Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin said that the government aims to end reliance on soybean imports and make Indonesia a soybean exporter within the next two to three years.

“The 30 hectares of land owned by the Indonesian Navy produced around 60 tons of soybeans, which is initial evidence of the success of the national soybean self-sufficiency program,” he noted.

Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman said the government would purchase the entire harvest and expand soybean planting to 10,000 hectares.

 

Developing La Niña Poses Drought Risk to Argentina’s Corn Crop Despite Current Favorable Conditions

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 54.2 [46.8–61.7] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent positive conditions have maintained 2025/26 Argentina corn production forecast at 54.2 million tons, but developing La Niña and expected warm, dry weather from December to February pose downside risks.

In October, most areas of the Pampas region—including Córdoba, northern Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, La Pampa, and Entre Ríos—have experienced warm and dry weather following previous wet conditions. This dryness has facilitated rapid crop planting, with national corn sowing reaching 30% completion by October 23, compared to 24% at the same time last year. Current soil moisture remains sufficient despite the recent dry spell, thanks to earlier wet months. Conversely, much of Buenos Aires province has continued to see precipitation surpluses in October, with 60–100 mm of rainfall in the past week alone. These excessive wet conditions have delayed early corn plantings in the province, which stand at 20% complete as of October 23—below last year’s rate of 24%.

Weather forecasts for the coming two weeks indicate favorable conditions for crops. The abovementioned dry regions like Córdoba, southern Santa Fe, and northern La Pampa are forecasted to receive 40-100 mm of rainfall, which would ease dryness but slow corn planting. Conversely, wet regions in Buenos Aires are expected to receive little rain, aiding drainage and speeding up sowing.

However, LSEG weather research indicates that a weak La Niña is developing, suggesting warmer, drier conditions in Argentina’s Pampa region from December to February. Both EC seasonal and CFS long-range weather forecasts predict similar warm and dry weather for the major crop-growing period in the country. If the outlooks verify, hot temperatures and insufficient precipitation during December-February could significantly reduce Argentina’s corn yields despite currently adequate soil moisture.

 

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production to increase from last season

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 10.8 [8.7–12.6] MILLION TONS

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is preliminarily set at 10.8 [8.7–12.6] million tons, up 5.8% from last season, mostly due to higher expected yield (2.91 tons per hectare, up 6.9% from last season) thanks to healthy soil moisture conditions. Paraguayan farmers are projected to plant 3.71 million hectares of soybeans, fractionally (<1%) down from last season. Our initial area estimate is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 3.80 million hectares, which pegged national-level production and yield at 11.0 million tons and 2.89 tons per hectare, respectively. The current soil moisture conditions in key producing areas of the southeastern Oriental Region remain healthy, but our latest long-term (Dec–Feb) weather forecasts by the LSEG Weather Research team (released on 09 October) indicate some potential risk of dryness across those areas (unlike in its northwestern counterpart), warranting attention.

 

Favorable early-season weather conditions benefit Paraguay corn production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

Croplands in eastern Paraguay experienced near or above-average rainfall in October. Soil moisture levels are currently higher than the same period last year, with some areas approaching record highs. This favorable early-season weather conditions suggest optimal prospects for corn development, with no risks at present. However, weather forecasts indicate relatively dry weather with cool to normal temperatures may occur during November and December. If verified, it could limit yield potential.

 

Recent mixed weather keeps Australian rapeseed production steady

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 AUSTRALIA RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 6.3 [5.9–6.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Australia rapeseed production remains unchanged at 6.3 million tons, amid recent mixed weather conditions. Over the past two weeks, Western Australia (WA), South Australia (SA), and Victoria (VIC) have experienced shift from warm to cooler temperatures. Increased precipitation was observed in WA and VIC, sustaining adequate soil moisture over the croplands. Vegetation densities (NDVI) derived from satellite imagery are consistently above-average across the major-producing rapeseed regions indicating overall healthy crop conditions.

The latest weather forecasts indicate that cooler temperatures are anticipated at the beginning of next week. Rainfall is expected in South Australia and Victoria, which may benefit late grain-fill of rapeseed crops. LSEG’s long-term weather outlook for November is indicating near-normal temperatures across Australia, with increased precipitation expected in mostly New South Wales.

 

 

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