Global Ag News For Oct 20.2025

TOP HEADLINES

France bans cattle exports, bullfighting as lumpy skin virus spreads

France imposed a ban on cattle exports and events such as bullfighting, the agriculture ministry said on Friday as it tries to contain the highly contagious lumpy skin disease sweeping through farms in the country for the first time.

Lumpy skin disease is a virus spread by insects that affects cattle and buffalo, causing blisters and reducing milk production. It does not pose a risk to humans but often leads to trade restrictions and severe economic losses.

The measures will take effect on October 18 and be valid until November 4. They will be lifted on November 5, if the health situation allows, the ministry said.

OUTBREAKS ON THE RISE

After waning this summer, outbreaks of lumpy skin disease picked up in France this month, spreading from the Alps to the Jura and Ain regions in eastern France. Three outbreaks of the disease have been found near the Spanish border this week.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 8; Soymeal up $3.80; Soyoil down 0.12.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 9 3/4 in SRW, up 12 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 12 1/2; Soybeans up 20 3/4; Soymeal up $11.70; Soyoil up 0.50.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 12 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/2; Soybeans up 24 1/2; Soymeal up $11.50; Soyoil up 1.52.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.2% in SRW, down 11.8% in HRW, down 7.6% in HRS; Corn is down 7.7%; Soybeans up 3.1%; Soymeal down 7.1%; Soyoil up 28.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 21 yuan; Soymeal up 12; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil up 36; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is down 7.

Malaysian markets are closed for holiday.

 

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE LATE OCTOBER IN BRAZIL WHILE THE RAINFALL ZONE WILL NARROW

What to Watch:

• Argentina will experience an increase in rains and moderate temperatures through the next 2-3 weeks, a favorable trend for wheat
• Widespread cool conditions will arrive across Brazil into next week, while most areas will trend drier with mixed crop impacts
• Cool/wet weather is in store for Paraguay through the next couple weeks, slowing corn/soybean plantings

 

LOCALIZED CROP RISKS IN SOUTH AMERICA INDICATED BY DECEMBER–FEBRUARY WEATHER OUTLOOK

What to Watch:

• Slightly warmer/drier conditions pose some downside risks to first corn, soybean and sugarcane crops in South Brazil, Paraguay and northern Argentinian Pampas
• There is potential for these risks to extend to the coffee-growing region in Southeast Brazil, though confidence is the lowest for that area
• The outlook is neutral for Central West Brazil and key soybean/corn areas in the Pampas
• Increased storm activity expected in the southern Pampas may affect the mature wheat crop and harvest progress

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 17 were: SRW Wheat down 3,842 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,910, Corn down 7,270, Soybeans down 14,466, Soymeal up 636, Soyoil up 6,184.

The player sheet for 10/17 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 6,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $355.99 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, traders said on Monday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

Bessent, Chinese vice premier to meet to try to defuse US tariff hike

• US-China trade meeting set for next week in Malaysia, Bessent says
• Trump says he will meet Xi in South Korea
• WTO chief calling for US, China to ease tensions

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday he expects to meet next week with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia to try to forestall an escalation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that President Donald Trump said was unsustainable.

Bessent made the announcement during a White House cabinet meeting and later confirmed plans for a meeting after a call with He on Friday evening. Bessent said on X the two officials “engaged in frank and detailed discussions regarding trade between the United States and China.”

“We will meet in-person next week to continue our discussions,” Bessent wrote.

China state news agency Xinhua reported that He and Bessent had “candid, in-depth, and constructive discussions on major issues in bilateral economic and trade relations” in a video call, and agreed to a new round of trade talks as soon as possible.

The two officials previously met in four European cities over six months to hammer out a tariff truce that brought duties down from triple-digit levels for each country. That agreement expires on November 10.

A meeting in Malaysia would shift the venue to a Southeast Asian exporter that trades heavily with both China and the U.S. and whose goods are now subject to a 19% duty imposed by Trump. Malaysia also faces a threatened 100% U.S. tariff on its semiconductors and derivative electronics devices under a national security trade review.

Trump earlier on Friday blamed Beijing for the latest impasse, a dispute over China’s sweeping new export restrictions on rare-earth minerals and magnets. He has threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting on November 1 unless Beijing scraps the restrictions.

Asked whether such a high tariff was sustainable and what that might do to the U.S. economy, Trump replied: “It’s not sustainable, but that’s what the number is.”

“They forced me to do that,” he said in an interview with Fox Business Network that was broadcast on Friday.

Trump also has threatened to impose new U.S. export controls that would halt supplies of “any and all critical software.”

The new trade actions were Trump’s reaction to China dramatically expanding its export controls on rare-earth elements. China dominates the market for such elements, which are essential to tech manufacturing.

Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Wednesday blasted the restrictions as a threat to global supply chains.

Trump also confirmed he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in two weeks in South Korea and expressed admiration for the Chinese leader.

“I think we’re going to be fine with China, but we have to have a fair deal. It’s got to be fair,” Trump said on FBN’s “Mornings with Maria,” which was taped on Thursday.

Later, as he was preparing to have lunch at the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss efforts to end its war with Russia, Trump said: “China wants to talk, and we like talking to China.”

The softening in tone and affirmation of his intent to meet with Xi helped stem Wall Street’s early losses on Friday. Major U.S. stock indexes, which have been rattled over the last week by Trump’s abrupt re-imposition of steep levies on Chinese imports and by credit worries among regional banks, were up in afternoon trading.

 

China imports no US soybeans in September for first time in seven years

• U.S. soybean imports to China drop to zero amid trade tensions
• Brazil dominates China’s soybean imports with 85.2% share
• Trade talks between U.S. and China show signs of progress

China imported no soybeans from the U.S. in September, the first time since November 2018 that shipments fell to zero, while South American shipments surged from a year earlier, as buyers shunned American cargoes during the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.

Imports last month from the U.S. fell to zero from 1.7 million metric tons a year earlier, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed on Monday.

Shipments fell because of the high tariffs China has imposed on U.S. imports and as previously harvested U.S. supplies, known as old-crop beans, have already been traded. China is the world’s biggest soybean importer.

“This is mainly due to tariffs. In a typical year, some old-crop beans would still enter the market,” said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures.

Brazil arrivals last month jumped 29.9% year-on-year to 10.96 million tons, accounting for 85.2% of China’s total imports of the oilseed, customs data showed, while shipments from Argentina rose 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, or 9% of the total.

China’s soybean imports reached 12.87 million metric tons in September, the second-highest level on record.

China has not purchased any U.S. soybean cargoes from this autumn’s harvest. The window for U.S. soybean purchases is rapidly closing as buyers secure shipments through November, largely from Brazil and Argentina, helped by Argentina’s brief tax holiday.

Without a breakthrough in trade talks, U.S. farmers could face billions in losses as Chinese crushers continue sourcing from South America. Beijing, however, may also face a potential supply crunch early next year before Brazil’s new crops hit the market.

“A soybean supply gap may emerge in China between February and April next year if there’s no trade deal in place. Brazil has already shipped a huge volume, and no one knows how much old-crop stock remains,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

Trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington appear to be regaining momentum after weeks of fresh tariff threats and export controls. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believed a soybean deal would be reached.

For the January-September period, China imported 63.7 million tons from Brazil, up 2.4% year-on-year, and 2.9 million tons from Argentina, up 31.8% year-on-year.

Even as Chinese buyers are shunning this year’s U.S. harvest, purchases earlier in 2025 mean that year-to-date imports of American beans have totalled 16.8 million tons, up 15.5%, data showed.

 

Brazil farmers plant 23.27% of 2025 expected soybean area, says Patria AgroNegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 23.27% OF 2025 EXPECTED SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 9.33% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

Australia’s wheat production outlook improves as harvest begins

Analysts have raised their estimates for Australia’s wheat harvest, a Reuters poll showed, as better-than-expected yields in western cropping regions boosted the production outlook despite losses caused by dry conditions in parts of the south.

With harvesting underway and due to run until January, five analysts lifted their estimates by an average of half a million metric tons since late last month.

The median of their estimates was for Australia to produce 35.7 million tons of wheat, which would be the third-biggest harvest on record.

Large Australian production will add to abundant global wheat supply that has pushed benchmark Chicago prices to five-year lows. Wv1GRA/

Australia is one of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat as well as barley, canola and other crops.

Analysts also raised estimates for Australia’s barley harvest by an average of around 400,000 tons. Their canola numbers were little changed.

The median forecasts were for a 15 million-ton barley crop, the largest ever, and a 6.5 million-ton canola crop.

Last year, Australia harvested 34.1 million tons of wheat, 13.3 million tons of barley and 6.4 million tons of canola.

Soil moisture has generally been good or very good through the growing season in much of Western Australia, northern New South Wales and Queensland, but deficient in parts of South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales.

Farmers in some southern regions decided in recent weeks to cut crops for fodder, especially after forecast rainfall failed to materialise.

“I’ve trimmed a bit off my wheat numbers for Victoria and parts of South Australia, where there’s been cutting for hay,” said Rod Baker, an analyst at Bendigo Agribusiness Insights.

“But what I’ve taken from there, Western Australia has made up for.”

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia last week raised its forecast for wheat production in the state by nearly 1 million tons.

 

China expects bumper grain harvest for the year, stats bureau says

China’s autumn grain production has been generally stable, and another bumper harvest is expected this year, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement released on Monday.

Some areas experienced natural disasters including drought and flooding, and the key grain-producing region in the North China Plain saw unfavourably wet weather conditions during the harvest period, which had an impact on autumn grain production, the NBS said in its statement.

 

China’s quarterly pork output rises as producers increase slaughter to curb overcapacity

China’s pork production rose 7% in the third quarter from a year earlier, government data showed on Monday, as hog producers accelerated slaughtering to address industry overcapacity.

Output during June-September in the world’s top pork producing nation surged to 13.48 million metric tons, a Reuters calculation based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

“The increase in pork production was mainly due to hog producers accelerating slaughter to curb overcapacity,” said Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong.

“This has also contributed to recent declines in hog prices.”

Farmers slaughtered 529.92 million hogs during the first nine months of the year, up 1.8% from a year earlier.

Cash hog prices stood at 11.2 yuan ($1.57) per kg on Monday, falling from above 17 yuan per kg during the same period last year, according to consultancy MySteel data.

Home to half the world’s pigs, China’s massive hog sector struggles with a supply glut amid weak consumer demand.

Authorities have intensified efforts to rein in overcapacity, urging major firms to reduce breeding sows, keep hog weight to around 120 kg, as well as tightening credits and subsidies.

The sow herd at September end was down 0.7% year-on-year at 40.35 million, the NBS data showed, still above normal holding level of 39 million.

“The number of breeding sows is expected to gradually decline over the remaining months of this year, while a more substantial drop in the overall hog herd will likely become evident about nine months later, around mid-2026,” said Pan.

For the first nine months of the year, production rose 3% to 43.68 million tons.

China’s pig herd size at the end of September was up 2.3% from the previous year to 436.8 million head, the NBS data showed.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Values move up at ports and are firm in other regions

Corn producers are away from closing deals in the spot market in Brazil, since they are focused on the 2025/26 summer crop planting activities. This scenario has been keeping prices firm in the Brazilian hinterland.

At ports, quotations have been moving up due to increases observed for dollar values and in the international market. It is worth highlighting that the price rise at ports tends to boost quotations in the interior, since this context boosts the export parity.

The pace of shipments is growing this month, but this is attributed to trades closed previously. According to data from Secex, the daily average of shipments this month (up to the second week) is at 326 thousand tons, which is 12% higher than one year ago. Thus, Brazil has exported 2.6 million tons so far, accounting for 40% of the total volume registered in October/24.

Corn quotations upped 2% at the port of Santos (SP) and 3.8% in Paranaguá (PR) over the last seven days. The US dollar increased 1.3% in the same comparison, at BRL 5.447 on October 16.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices downed 0.1% between October 9 and 16, to close at BRL 65.12 per 60-kg bag on October 16. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values moved up 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices move up in Brazil

Soy producers are away from closing deals involving large amounts in Brazil, scenario that increased prices in the domestic market this week.

They have their eyes on the dollar valuation against Real (which leads the national product to be more attractive compared to grains from the United States), on the high demand from abroad and on new tariffs announced by the US to China, which will take effect in November and may boost Brazilian sales to China. However, this scenario pressed down futures in the United States, and international drops, in turn, limited increases in the domestic market.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 1.1% from October 9 and 16, closing at BRL 138.17 per 60-kg bag on Oct. 16. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 0.8% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 132.96 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.7% in both the wholesale market (deals between processors) and in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). The US dollar moved up 1.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 5.447 yesterday.

Soy trades at the port of Paranaguá (PR) ended up limited by new rules for freight values. Moreover, the beginning of La Niña has been resulting in heterogeneous volume of rainfall in the Southeast and in the Central-West, which can reduce the soy productivity in some areas.

 

Canada and China discuss disputes over canola and EVs, says Ottawa

Senior Canadian and Chinese officials discussed bilateral trade disputes involving canola and electric vehicles on Friday, Ottawa said, but gave no indication of any immediate breakthrough.

Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing as part of an effort by both countries to improve relations, which have been poor for years.

China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, a year after Canada said it would slap a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

“The ministers discussed issues of respective sensitivity, such as agriculture and agri-food products, including canola, as well as seafood, meat and electric vehicles,” the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement.

“(They) agreed that regular and candid communication is essential to build trust, enhance cooperation and address respective concerns.”

An official Chinese readout of the meeting said Wang had told Anand that Beijing was willing to work with Canada to restart dialogue and exchanges at all levels and to promote the resolution of each nation’s legitimate concerns.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday he expected to meet senior Chinese leaders soon but sidestepped a question about dropping tariffs on electric vehicles in exchange for relief from the canola duties.

 

Pakistan Sets Wheat Buying Price at 3,500 Rupees/Ton

Wheat to be bought from farmers at the government fixed price under Wheat Policy 2025-26, according to a statement from Pakistan’s prime minister’s office.

• Federal and provincial government to develop a strategic stock of about 6.2 million tons
• Governments to ensure availability of the grain

 

Louis Dreyfus, Molinos Make Joint Offer to Vicentin Creditors

Louis Dreyfus Co. and Molinos Agro have made a restructuring offer to creditors holding $1.3 billion of unsecured debt in the bankruptcy protection case of Argentine soy exporter Vicentin SAIC, according to a joint statement.

• NOTE: Bidders have until the end of the month to reach minimum creditor acceptance thresholds to be able to take over Vicentin
  • The thresholds are more than half the number of creditors representing at least two thirds of the value of the $1.3 billion debt
• NOTE: The joint offer by crop traders Louis Dreyfus and Molinos comes as a rival is already making headway with creditors
  • The rival, grains brokerage Grassi, forced the case to the current “cramdown” phase and is in talks for commercial backing from Cargill if it wins control of Vicentin
  • NOTE: Grassi Begins to Gather Creditors in $1.3 Billion Vicentin Case
• NOTE: Vicentin’s assets include a 33% stake in the world’s biggest soy-processing plant on the Parana River

 

Weak Polar Vortex increases the cold risks for winter crops in Europe in December-February

• Elevated risk of frequent cold outbreaks this winter will be present in most of Europe, with the most evident cold in continental Russia
• Deficient precipitation pattern may increase the winterkill risk for winter wheat in Central, Volga and Urals Districts
• Rainy and snowy conditions expected in parts of Europe will bode well for soil moisture ahead of the growing season

EUROPE, BLACK SEA, AND CENTRAL ASIA WINTER 2025/26 WEATHER OUTLOOK

Crop Impacts (Wheat, Rapeseed):

The main focus will be on cold risks for winter crops during dormancy, as well as the potential for soil moisture alleviation ahead of the spring.

The forecast suggests the highest risk for winter wheat in Russia (Central, Volga and Urals Districts), as there is strong potential for reaching the winterkill threshold during cold outbreaks with an insufficient snow layer. At the same time, persistent dryness in this region indicates minimal soil moisture improvement from snowmelt in areas already experiencing deficits, and pressure on spring rains will increase.

Cold risks will also be elevated for winter wheat areas in the Baltic States, Poland, France, Spain and Italy, though it remains highly unlikely that temperatures in most of those countries will reach the winterkill threshold. Additionally, an active precipitation pattern with sufficient snow cover should effectively mitigate overall risk from low temperatures, also bodes very well for increased deep soil moisture ahead of the growing season.

Temperature Outlook:

The forecasted temperature anomalies for December-February (Figure 1) feature a near-normal outlook for most of Western Europe, with some potential for cold anomalies in Southwest (Southern France, northern Spain and Italy) and Central-East (Poland, Baltic states, Western Russia). Significantly colder than normal conditions are expected in Continental Russia and Kazakhstan. The areas with warm conditions are confined to Southeast Europe and Turkey, also locally in Scandinavia.

The LSEG final temperature outlook is consistent with the analog scenario (Appendix 1), and the probability map (Appendix 3). The forecast shows notably cooler conditions compared to the EC Seasonal/Copernicus outlook, which currently anticipates widespread warmth, with the most pronounced temperature increases in Northeast Europe. The analog years selection behind our forecast considered the simultaneous events of weak La Nina and weak Polar Vortex conditions (strong negative QBO phase), also the expectations of relatively neutral AO/NAO phases and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic (though cooler than previous years). Near-normal temperatures for the 3-month average with spots of cooler conditions across Southwest and Central Europe reflect high potential for advanced cold outbreaks from a disrupted Polar Vortex, even despite recurrent warm episodes. There is also a slight warm anomaly in the north corresponding with this pattern, indicating that cold pools could be shifted southward and cut off by warmer ridges in the north.

Regarding winter progress, the peak of the most negative QBO and ENSO phases during the early part of the winter indicates that cold risks may be greater in December and early January than later in the season.

Finally, confidence in the forecast is high, supported by the high likelihood that the primary climatic drivers will persist. However, this confidence may be moderated to some extent by significant discrepancy with the seasonal numerical model forecasts.

Precipitation Outlook:

The forecasted precipitation anomalies for December-February (Figure 2) feature a relatively moderate outlook for most of Central Europe with the highest probability of snowy/wet conditions in France and along the Mediterranean area. There is also a slight potential for precipitation upticks in Scandinavia and northern Ukraine. A widespread dryness is expected across Continental Russia and parts of the eastern Black Sea basin.

The LSEG final precipitation forecast is in consensus with the analog scenario (Appendix 2) and probability map (Appendix 4). The EC seasonal forecasts suggests near normal precipitation totals across the majority of the continent, with only few areas of wetter conditions in Norway and locally along the Mediterranean area, also some potential for drier than normal weather in France. Our forecasts corresponds with the temperature pattern, showing the potential for the main cold front and cut-off cyclones shifted southward. Additionally, drier than normal conditions in Russia further support an increased influence of the cold/dry Siberian high-pressure system, in line with the expectations of disrupted Polar Vortex.

 

 

 

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