Global Ag News For Oct 15.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump targets China cooking oil trade – but sales were already tanking

• U.S. cooking oil imports from China dropped 65% this year
• Trump’s comments have minimal impact, traders say
• China shifts soybean purchases to Brazil, Argentina

U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering terminating some trade ties with China, singling out cooking oil even though traders and analysts said such shipments have already spent the past year plummeting.

“I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution,” Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday.

“As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.”

The U.S. was China’s top market for used cooking oil (UCO), importing a record 1.27 million metric tons worth $1.1 billion in 2024. But after China cut tax rebates late last year and the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods this year, imports plunged 65% in January-August to 290,690 tons, or $286.7 million.

As such, Trump’s comments have had “minimal” impact on the market, two UCO traders in China said on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to media.

“The U.S. pretty much stopped buying from China anyway, so the impact is as empty as his threats,” said one of the traders, who deals with the U.S. market.

“Domestic producers are now mainly taking orders for Europe and are no longer considering the U.S. market,” said the other.

UCO trade is small compared with that of soybeans. China imported 22.13 million tons of U.S. soybeans last year, valued at $12 billion.

“Used cooking oil is a niche trade, but it shows how the Trump Administration is standing up for American farmers, just as China shifts its agricultural purchases towards other suppliers,” said senior analyst Chim Lee at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

China is the world’s largest buyer of soybeans. In recent months it has slashed purchases of U.S. soybeans in favor of Brazilian and Argentine produce.

Trump has called the shift a negotiation tactic. He said this month he hoped to discuss soybeans with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping while also saying the U.S. may halt a large share of imports from China.

The U.S. president has targeted China with a cascade of tariff orders on billions of dollars worth of imported goods that he said is aimed at narrowing a trade deficit, bringing back lost manufacturing and crippling the trade in fentanyl.

The U.S. and China have had strained ties for years, especially with Trump in office. They have been at odds over issues including technology, human rights, the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical matters involving Hong Kong, Taiwan and Ukraine.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil up 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil up 0.89.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 9 1/2 in SRW, down 11 1/4 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal up $1.20; Soyoil up 1.18.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.3% in SRW, down 12.6% in HRW, down 7.3% in HRS; Corn is down 10.0%; Soybeans up 1.0%; Soymeal down 10.5%; Soyoil up 27.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 19 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil down 50; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 13.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 13 ringgit (+0.29%) at 4474.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 14 were: SRW Wheat up 5,363 contracts, HRW Wheat down 571, Corn up 353, Soybeans up 1,829, Soymeal up 338, Soyoil down 1,643.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 14 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A round of rains will hit the U.S. Plains and Upper Midwest this week before shifting eastward next week, but these should not cause major disruptions to crop progress
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures will prevail through the next 10 days over Argentina before a cool-down arrives in a favorable outlook for wheat development on balance
• AFRICA: Moderate temperatures and largely dry conditions are in store for South Africa during the next couple weeks, which should facilitate maize plantings
• AUSTRALIA: Frontal activity will increase across Australia through the next 1-2 weeks, bringing rains to most areas to the benefit of wheat/rapeseed development
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could remain in its negative phase through December-February, which supports prospects for a mild winter in North America and Asia

As North America warmth persists late into the month, the storm track will slowly turn more active

What to Watch:

• Nearly widespread continental warmth will carry through the balance of October with minimal frost impacts
• The pattern will slowly turn more active in the back half of the month, with rainfall chances increasing for most of North America at various times
• The prevalence of warmth in the forecast should facilitate crop harvest/planting activities despite increasing rains

Northern Plains: Scattered showers continue across the region through Friday as a pair of systems move along a front that has stalled off to the south. All of the precipitation is not favorable for harvest this week, and progress should be slower. Cooler temperatures are also producing frosts and freezes in some areas, common for this time of year.

Central/Southern Plains: A front has stalled in the region and will be active as systems move along it throughout the week. Showers will be much more consistent farther north, though. Periods of precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too.

Midwest: A front will be stalled in the northwestern portion of the region for the next several days. Systems moving along the front will continue shower chances for most of the week in the northwest, before the front gets pushed eastward this weekend. That may cause some stronger thunderstorms to develop across the east. Overall, showers may limit some harvest in the northwest, but most areas should have good weather to continue work. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

Delta: Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region. Though the Lower Mississippi River got a small boost in water levels from rain that fell in the Ohio Valley last week, water levels are declining again. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through this weekend may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

Brazil: Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall is underway. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. Consistent fronts moving north from Argentina are providing good moisture for corn and soybean establishment in the south.

Argentina: A front moved through over the weekend with scattered showers. Though it missed some areas, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. Another front should bring showers to northern areas late this week. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable.

 

The player sheet for 10/14 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, and buyers of 2,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday. It was believed that no purchase was made of 45,000 tons of Canadian-origin wheat also sought.
• CORN PURCHSAE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 136,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.13m Tons of Corn for Export, 994k of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 9, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,130k tons vs 1,702k the previous wk, 514k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 994k tons vs 783k the previous wk, 1,908k a yr ago
• Wheat: 444k tons vs 548k the previous wk, 380k a yr ago

 

CROP SURVEY: US Corn Harvest Seen 45% Complete, Soybeans 60%

The US corn harvest seen advancing to 45% complete in the week ending Oct. 12, according to the average in a Bloomberg News survey of as many as 14 analysts.

• This compares to 47% complete last year at this time
• Soybean harvest seen at 60% complete vs 67% complete last season
• The USDA has suspended publication of its weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report due to the federal government shutdown

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 9

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 9 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 196k tons of the 994k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Indonesia led in wheat

 

NOPA September US soybean crush estimated at 186.340 million bushels

The U.S. soybean processing pace likely accelerated in September as some crush plants resumed operations after seasonal plant maintenance downtime ahead of the autumn harvest, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Wednesday.

NOPA members were estimated to have crushed 186.340 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If the crush estimate is realized, the total in September would be down 1.8% from a crush of 189.810 million bushels in August due to one fewer day of processing, but up 5.1% from the September 2024 crush of 177.320 million bushels.

The September estimate implies an average daily crush rate of 6.211 million bushels, up from 6.123 million bushels a day in August, according to NOPA data.

It would also represent the largest September crush on record as NOPA membership has grown and as many crushers have expanded plants and opened new ones in recent years amid a boom in soyoil-based renewable fuels production.

NOPA members represent more than 99% of all U.S. soybean processing capacity, according to the trade association.

Crush estimates for September ranged from 176.520 million to 195.000 million bushels, with a median of 184.400 million bushels.

The report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Wednesday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of September 30 were projected at 1.220 billion pounds, based on estimates from six analysts.

The figure, if realized, would be down 2.0% from stocks totaling 1.245 billion pounds at the end of August.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.141 billion to 1.285 billion pounds, with a median of 1.223 billion pounds.

 

Brazil 2025-26 Soybean Crop Seen at 177.6M Tons: Conab

Output seen only slightly lower than the preliminary est. of 177.7m tons made in Sept., Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 179m tons
• Yield seen unchanged from the prelim. est. at 3,620 kg/ha
• Area planted seen at 49.074m ha vs prelim est. 49.083m ha
• Corn production seen at 138.6m tons vs prelim. 138.3m tons

 

Brazilian Soybean Farmers Eye Replanting Amid Improving Weather — Market Talk

(Dow Jones) — 0941 ET – Brazilian farmers are in the process of planting soybean crops, with the Brazilian planting season extending through the start of 2026. Farmers there are reporting “inadequate germination” for the soybeans they’ve so far planted, says Michael Cordonnier of Soybean And Corn Advisor, due to dry weather not providing the proper moisture. “That is always a concern in central Brazil if farmers plant after the first rain with subsequent rains delayed for several weeks,” says Cordonnier in a note. He adds that replanting will cost farmers, but at the same time may not have a noticeable impact on yields. CBOT grain futures are lower, with soybeans down 0.5%, corn off 0.2%, and wheat 0.7% lower.

 

India’s palm oil imports hit four-month low as refiners favour cheaper soyoil

15 Oct 2025 01:51:22 AM

• Palm oil imports fall 16.3% m/m to 829,017 tons
• Soyoil imports jumped 36.8% m/m to 503,240 tons
• Sunflower oil imports rise 6% m/m to 272,386 tons

India’s palm oil imports in September dropped to their lowest since May as refiners shifted to cheaper soyoil, shipments of which hit a more than three-year high, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said on Wednesday.

Lower palm oil imports by India, the world’s largest buyer of vegetable oils, are expected to weigh on the benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures while supporting U.S. soyoil futures.

India’s palm oil imports in September dropped 16.3% to 829,017 metric tons, marking their lowest point since May, the industry trade body said.

Imports of soyoil surged 36.8% to 503,240 tons, the highest level since July 2022, while sunflower oil imports rose about 6% to 272,386 tons, the highest since January, it added.

The decline in palm oil imports dragged India’s total edible oil imports in September down by 1% month-on-month to 1.60 million tons, the trade body said.

India’s palm oil imports are likely to fall to around 600,000 tons in October, while soyoil imports will likely exceed 450,000 tons, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

India purchased 300,000 tons of soyoil from Argentina during September 23 and September 24, the largest ever purchase in a two-day period, dealers said, taking advantage of Buenos Aires’ move to scrap export taxes on soybeans and other food products.

Demand for edible oil in India, particularly palm oil, typically rises during the festival season amid increased consumption of sweets and fried foods.

 

Ukraine’s 2025 Winter Wheat, Barley Sowing Falls From Last Year

Ukrainian farmers planted winter wheat across 2.8m hectare (6.9m acres) as of Oct. 14, 15% less than at the same period last year, Ministry of Economy says on website.

• Winter barley areas have reached 222,000 hectare, down 33% from last year
• Winter rapeseed planted area decline 1.47% y/y to 985,300 hectare

 

Canada Sees Mexico as Market For Canola Exports: Agro Minister

Canada sees Mexico as a market for its exports of canola, which currently face high tariffs from China, Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald said during a press conference alongside his Mexican counterpart, Julio Berdegue, in Mexico City.

• After a joint meeting, Berdegue said the ministers agreed to use an electronic certificate to facilitate agricultural trade
• Canada plans to sell more pet food to Mexico to help meet demand: Berdegue
• Mexico, Canada will find common ground during the review of the USMCA, Berdegue said
  • “We share the conviction that more trade and more integration is good,” Berdegue said
• Canadian and Mexican agribusiness leaders are holding meetings in Mexico City to reach trade and investment agreements

 

Russia Says It Resumed Wheat Deliveries to Indonesia This Month

Russia exported 52,000 tons of wheat to Indonesia this month, agriculture watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor says in statement.

• Supplies resumed after accreditation for testing laboratories was extended by three years, service says, without clarifying length of interruption in exports
• According to Interfax, Russian wheat exports to Indonesia in 2024 exceeded 1.35m tons

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 7.3 Million Tons In October – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.31 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 7.12 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.06 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 1.92 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.46 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 6.06 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 23% Y/y So Far in Season to Oct. 12

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 5.5m tons as of Oct. 12, compared with 7.1m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Morocco (727k tons), Saudi Arabia (638k tons) and Nigeria (335k tons)
• Barley exports were 2.4m tons, up 49% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 4.3m tons, down 27% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: The commission said export data are incomplete for France since the start of 2024
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season
  • Commission said it is working to resolve these issues

 

FIRM CPO PRICES EXPECTED IN NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM AS STOCK LEVEL MAY HAVE PEAKED — HLIB

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 13 (Bernama) — Palm oil inventory in Malaysia is likely to have peaked in September and is expected to trend lower from this month onwards, potentially supporting crude palm oil (CPO) prices in the near to medium term, said Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB).

In a research note today, HLIB said palm oil stocks rose 7.2 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) to 2.36 million tonnes in September mainly due to seasonally lower cropping cycles, higher imports that more than offset firmer exports, and weaker domestic consumption.

“We are maintaining our 2025 and 2026 CPO price assumptions at RM4,300 and RM4,200 per tonne respectively, and overweight stance on the (plantation) sector,” it said.

The CPO price assumptions are based on worse-than-expected La Nina weather conditions and the smooth implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate in Indonesia.

It noted that exports rose 7.7 per cent m-o-m in September, mainly driven by stronger demand from India ahead of the Deepavali season, while production eased slightly by 0.7 per cent, indicating the start of a seasonal downtrend.

HLIB’s top picks in the sector are SD Guthrie and Hap Seng Plantations.

Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) said the palm oil stockpile at end of October to be “relatively flattish” at 2.3 million to 2.4 million tonnes assuming the healthy export trend in the first 10 days sustains and on expectation of production remaining favourable at about 1.8 tonnes. .

“Palm oil output is likely to remain strong for at least another month, especially from East Malaysia,” it said, warning that high stockpile level, coupled with present geopolitical risks, could potentially pressure CPO prices on the downside in the short term.

Maybank IB maintained its neutral stance on the sector with a 2025 CPO price forecast of RM4,000 per tonne. Its top picks are SD Guthrie and Sarawak Oil Palms.

 

Amaggi, Inpasa Abandon Plans to Form Ethanol JV in Brazil

Grains trader Amaggi and biofuel producer Inpasa are no longer in talks to form a joint venture in the corn ethanol market in Brazil, the companies say in a statement.

• Decision to abandon project was made after both companies concluded that they had “different visions regarding the project’s structure and governance”: stmt
  • In August, the companies announced an agreement to build three corn-ethanol plants in Brazil, each with capacity to process 2 million metric tons of corn a year
• Companies say they will “remain open to evaluating future opportunities for cooperation”

 

Singapore investor to build large $230-mln agriculture complex in northern Kazakhstan

ASTANA. Oct 14 (Interfax) – Singaporean company XiYu Agricultural Pte. Ltd plans to build a large agriculture complex in Kazakhstan’s Kostanay region, the press service of national company Kazakh Invest reported.

Investments in the project will total around $230 million.

The complex will house facilities producing 125,000 tonnes of citric acid per year, 200,000 tonnes of unrefined sunflower oil, 360,000 tonnes of feed meal and 100,000 tonnes of sulfuric acid.

“The project is aimed towards exporting finished high value-added products to countries in the Middle East, Europe, Turkey and China,” the statement reads.

At the preparations stage, XiYu Agricultural is acquiring a grain elevator complex with a capacity of 90,000 tonnes and a plot of land of over 20 hectares, forming the basis on which to launch key production operations.

The design and technical documentation has been prepared by China’s COFCO Engineering & Technology Co. Ltd. The equipment and technology for the project will be supplied by SUMEC Group Corporation, a subsidiary of Chinese state-owned engineering holding Sinomach.

According to the press release, Kazakh Invest CEO Sultangali Kinzhakulov discussed the implementation of the investment project with XiYu Agricultural CEO Ge Kaihua and representatives from SUMEC International on Tuesday.

 

U.S. wheat production unchanged amid favorable winter crop planting weather

2026/27 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 51.7 [49.1–54.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Outlooks for 2026/27 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production remain unchanged at 33.01 million acres and 36.6 million tons, respectively. Plantings are in full swing throughout all core regions thanks to favorable late September/early October weather, mostly progressing at normal pace albeit some early delays in few key states. Due to the recent government shutdown, USDA’s crop progress reports have been suspended since 01 October. All the relevant data flow has abruptly halted as well. As of 28 September, winter wheat was reported to be 34% planted at the national level, only slightly behind last year’s 37% and the five-year average of 36%. Some delays warrant attention nonetheless, especially in the top HRW (hard red winter) wheat producer Kansas, where its winter crop was only 17% planted (vs. last year’s 30% and the five-year average of 30%) as of late September.

Recent short-term weather forecasts (GFS & EC) indicate a continuation of moderate warm weather across the Upper Midwest and most of the Plains into late October, hinting positive sowing conditions, though rainfall prospects are rather mixed. The soil moisture conditions remain relatively healthy throughout most key HRW wheat regions in the Plains, but some areas of the SRW (soft red winter) wheat belt (such as Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan) are in need of water supply, warranting attention. One important item to watch around this time of year is the potential for significant cold anomalies during December–February, which could increase the risk for winterkill damage to the dormant wheat if realized. This risk appears to be low at the moment according to our LSEG weather research team’s latest ENSO analysis (released on 09 October).

 

 

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