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Global Ag News for Oct 13


Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 8 cents, HRW up 8; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil up 45 points.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 11 yuan in soybeans, up 7 in Corn, down 33 in Soymeal, down 10 in Soyoil, and up 2 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 14 ringgit at 3,008 (basis December) with ongoing ideas of tightening supplies supporting prices.

U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest now has the models in better agreement bringing a pair of fronts with light to moderate rainfall for most of the region, except MN. Temps will begin to fall below average. The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period remains with little rainfall with temps beginning to fall below average.

South America Weather Forecast: The Brazilian growing regions has hit and miss rainfall central/north with moderate amounts covering 70% of the region; rains central/south are lighter in amounts with 70% coverage. Rains continue central/north in the 6 to 10 day period. The Argentine growing regions has a forecast over the next 6 to 10 days of moderate rainfall covering 90% of the growing areas.

Europe/Black Sea Region Forecast: The models are still suggesting the potential for rain is rising for some of eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan during the coming two weeks, although the precipitation is advertised to be sporadic and light; a general soaking is not very likely and confidence getting such a soaking is low, but a few showers are possible.

The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; net sold 27,000 Corn; net sold 30,000 Soybeans; sold 9,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 7,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 29,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 157,000 Corn; net long 228,000 Soybeans; net long 76,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 81,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,500 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,500; Corn up 5,900; Soybeans up 915 contracts; Soymeal down 4,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 4,300.

Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal and ZERO Soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 361; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 250; Rice ZER0; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,195.

Tender Activity—Japan seeks 87,110t optional-origin wheat; Iran seeks 200,000t optional-origin soymeal—

Wire story reports five of the eight U.S. Crop Watch soybean fields were harvested between Tuesday and Wednesday, and the final yield score was better than predicted in four of those cases – the fifth field already had the maximum expectation; that contrasts with the earlier three bean fields in Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska, where final yields fell short of the prediction. Three of the eight corn fields have been harvested, though none in the latest week, and the remaining five should be completed within the next two weeks; growers generally reported rapid harvest progress for soybeans last week, more than in prior weeks; most of the soybean fields in the Crop Watch areas have been completed, though a decent amount of corn remains.

News wire story has U.S. President Donald Trump enjoys broad support among farmers, but some are unhappy about the impact of his trade and biofuel policies on crop prices and international demand for U.S. agricultural products; Democrat challenger Joe Biden has seized on the biofuel issue, pledged a more multilateral approach to international trade, and promises to make farming more environmentally friendly.

China’s corn prices may remain supported on concerns about supply, says analyst at StoneX; the crop loss from the typhoon in northeastern China has been estimated at 10%, which would be around 8.5 million metric tons; the southern corn prices–at CNY2,500-CNY2,550 a metric ton–are at their highest since August 2015, and this combined with the strong yuan, should continue to pull in corn from overseas.

China’s soybean imports rose in September as previously delayed cargoes at customs started rolling in, and are forecast to remain robust in the months ahead due to higher arrivals from the United States as part of the Sino-U.S. trade deal; demand for the oilseed is expected to stay strong in the world’s top soybean importer due to a pig herd that is recovering rapidly from the African swine fever; China brought in 9.79 million tonnes of soybeans in September, up 1.9% from 9.6 million tons in August, according to data from the General Administration of Customs; the figures were also up 19% from 8.2 million tons in September last year.

Malaysia’s Foreign Minister said Tuesday China has committed to buy 1.7 million tons of palm oil until 2023; further, Malaysia also appreciates China’s agreement to “encourage its enterprises to increase import of sustainably produced Malaysian palm oil and other products.

China imported 834,000 tons of meat in September, customs data showed, slightly higher than last month, as the world’s biggest meat consumer continues to stock up on proteins after a plunge in its pork output; the large volume compares to August’s imports of 832,000 tons and suggests there has been little impact from the suspension of exports by some overseas plants facing coronavirus outbreaks among workers; imports for the first nine months of the year are up 72% at 7.41 million tons.

Russian wheat export prices rose last week due to high demand from exporters and limited supply from farmers concerned about dry weather in several regions which signals risks for the 2021 crop; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports and for supply in October was at $245 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $8 from the previous week, agriculture consultancy IKAR said; Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, said wheat rose by $4 to $239 per ton; current dry weather may reduce Russia’s winter wheat sowing area by 10%-15%, mainly in the central part of the country, Sovecon said.

Russia exported 11.6 million tons of wheat from July 1 to October 1 of this year, or 3% less year-on-year, the Center of Agro-analytics said; the overall export of grain crops increased to 13.9 million tons against 13.8 million tons a year earlier; specifically, corn was 300,000 tons, a decline of 37.1%, while other crops totaled 40,000 tons, a decrease of 5.1%.

Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen 14% to 13.12 million tons so far in the season that runs from July 2020 to June 2021 because of much lower volumes of corn, economy ministry data showed; traders sold only 818,000 tons of corn compared to 2.45 million tons on the same date last year; the export of wheat also declined to 9.2 million tons from 9.77 million a year earlier.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 had reached 5.73 million tons by Oct. 11, official EU data showed; that was 29% below the volume cleared by Oct. 13 last year.

Soybean imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totaled 3.84 million tons by Oct. 11; that was 4% above the volume imported in the previous 2019/20 season.

France’s farm ministry cut its estimate of the country’s 2020 grain maize crop, harvesting of which is in progress, to 13.5 million tons from 14.1 million last month; for soft wheat the ministry cut its outlook for 2020 to 29.2 million tons from 29.5 million expected last month.

European wheat futures in Paris were lifted by firm U.S. and Russian markets on Monday, with the impact of dry weather in the Black Sea region in focus; December milling wheat was up 0.75 euros or 0.3%, at 201.00 euros ($237.3) a ton, hovering near to a life-of-contract high of 202.25 euros set last week.

Covid-19 may have unleashed all-round economic devastation, but has also turned into an opportunity for whittling down the Food Corporation of India’s (FCI) massive grain mountain; at 68.49 million tons (mt), the total wheat and rice stocks in the Central pool as on October 1 stood way below the record 97.27 mt at the start of June; the gap between the current and year-ago stocks, too, has narrowed down from over 15 mt to 1.5 mt between June 1 and October 1; much of this inventory drawdown is the result of the Narendra Modi government’s efforts at disposing of surplus food grains

India is likely to produce 10.46 million tons of soybean in 2020, nearly 15% lower than the previous estimate, as excessive rainfall during harvesting and pest diseases hit the oilseed; lower-than-expected production of main summer-sown oilseed could prompt the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer increase costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine.

Indonesia’s palm oil exports stood at 2.68 million tons in August, 14.4% lower than a month ago, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed; the drop was due to the coronavirus pandemic as well as higher palm oil prices, which made rival vegetable oils a more attractive option; on a year-on-year basis, August palm oil exports fell 7.3%; Indonesia’s palm oil stockpile rose to 4.46 million tons in August, up from 3.62 million tons in July.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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