Global Ag News For Nov 13.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Germany’s bird flu cases at three-year high with ‘no relief in sight’

Germany has already recorded in 2025 its highest number of bird flu outbreaks in three years and there is no relief in sight, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute for Animal Diseases said, as Europe witnessed a sharp resurgence of the deadly disease.

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, is a concern for governments and the poultry industry due to the devastation it can cause to flocks, the possibility of trade restrictions and a risk of a new pandemic.

The virus had been detected on 122 farms and 1,125 wild bird infections by November 11, the FLI said. This is more than double the 46 cases in the whole of 2024 and compares with 208 outbreaks in the whole of 2022.

Bird flu is a seasonal disease carried by migrating wild birds. Outbreaks tend to appear in early autumn, rise strongly until the end of the year and peak in the spring.

It has led to the culling of more than 1 million poultry in Germany so far. While other countries in Europe have also seen a higher number of outbreaks this season, Germany is by far the worse affected.

“In Germany, there has been a sharp increase in poultry outbreaks in recent weeks,” the FLI stated in its latest risk assessment.

“The number of cases in wild birds has also risen very significantly, unusually frequent detections are currently being observed in cranes, whose autumn migration has contributed to the further widespread dissemination of the virus,” it said.

The institute said that “no relief is in sight”, with the current risk level as “high”, underscoring the challenges posed by bird migration patterns and local containment efforts.

However, German analysts report no significant impact on egg or poultry meat prices, citing a nationwide poultry population of approximately 200 million.

While Germany has not imposed a nationwide lockdown, several local authorities have ordered the confinement of poultry. In certain areas, protections on crane birds have been eased, allowing them to be culled in high-risk zones to limit the virus’s spread.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil up 0.36.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 22 1/4; Soymeal up $5.10; Soyoil up 1.13.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 1/7 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 21 3/4; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil up 2.22.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.4% in SRW, down 6.4% in HRW, down 4.7% in HRS; Corn is down 5.0%; Soybeans up 13.0%; Soymeal up 4.6%; Soyoil up 27.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal up 9; Soyoil up 18; Palm oil down 40; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 1.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 1 ringgit (+0.02%) at 4125.

There were changes in registrations (-3 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 470 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 12 were: SRW Wheat down 15,115 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,026, Corn up 822, Soybeans up 10,684, Soymeal up 2,852, Soyoil up 7,212.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 13 NOVEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: According to the recent EC monthly forecast, a major cold spell is likely to arrive early December across the Northwest and Central U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Increasingly dry conditions along the Argentinian Pamaps in the second part of November will support corn/soybean plantings
• AFRICA: Flood risks from previous and expected rainfall in South Africa may affect maize plantings
• BLACK SEA: Warm weather is forecast for Ukraine and Southwest Russia over the next 3 weeks, reducing cold risks and supporting any remaining winter wheat planting
• TROPICS: The extended Atlantic forecast indicates minimal potential for hurricane development for the remainder of the season

 

SOUTH AMERICA RAINS WILL BE MODEST AND SCATTERED BETWEEN LARGER DRY AREAS LATE INTO THE MONTH

What to Watch:

• Temperatures will oscillate in Argentina through the next couple weeks, but increasing dryness along the Pampas will support corn/soybean plantings
• Upcoming Brazil rains will become increasingly scattered and accompanied by moderate temperatures, which should facilitate corn/soybean planting progress
• Moderate weather is in store for Paraguay through the next couple weeks, a positive trend for corn/soybean plantings

 

Northern Plains: A system will move through on Friday and Saturday with limited showers and a drop in temperature. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with several moving through. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Temperatures will remain above normal temperatures for the rest of the week. A system will move in this weekend or early next week and bring widespread precipitation to the region. Models are still working out the timing and coverage of precipitation, but could mean some snow in the north and strong winds. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

Midwest: A few showers will develop in the Great Lakes on Wednesday with warmer air moving into the region. A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers through this weekend as well as a drop in temperature. Another system is likely to bring showers to the region early next week as the pattern gets more active for the second half of the month.

Delta: Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. The pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

Brazil: A front will move into the country on Wednesday and is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain into the weekend. One more front will move into southern areas this weekend and the forecast has increased precipitation along it. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

Argentina: Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. A front will exit on Wednesday after bringing through scattered showers on Tuesday, and one more front will move through this weekend. The forecast has increased showers with that front, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on fronts with less rainfall potential for the rest of November. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

Europe: Scattered showers continue across western areas in a couple of waves for the rest of the week. Cooler and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent as winter crops start to go dormant across the north.

Black Sea: Eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A system moving through is producing some limited showers, but not enough to turn around the situation for those areas in a deficit. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: A system moving through eastern areas late this week and weekend could bring scattered showers, but areas will be missed. Drier conditions are forecast there next week with showers increasing across the west. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

The player sheet for 11/12 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased about 75,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday, which sought limited shipment to two ports only.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 130,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Thursday
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Thursday
• SOFT WHEAT, DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase about 125,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and around 100,000 tons of durum wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• RAW SUGAR TENDER CANCELED: The Egyptian Sugar and Integrated Industries Company canceled a raw sugar tender, it said. ESIIC said earlier that it had set a tender to buy 50,000 metric tons of raw sugar cane with the offer deadline set for November 15.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday. 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Nov. 7 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.102m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.633m bbl vs 22.655m a week ago

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2025-26 Soybean Output Seen at 179M Tons

Brazil soybean production est. seen 1.4m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est. in October, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 177.2m tons to 183.2m tons
• Brazil’s corn crop seen 2.5m tons higher at 141.1m tons
• Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on Nov. 13 at 9am local time

 

Argentina’s “mega” wheat crop to hit record level, exchange says

Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop is projected to reach a record level, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, as the crop records higher yields during the ongoing harvest.

The exchange raised its forecast for the crop to 24.5 million metric tons, a hike of 1.5 million tons from its estimate last month.

If the forecast holds true, the harvest will surpass the previous record of 23 million tons collected four years ago.

In its monthly crop report, the exchange described the current wheat season as a “mega-campaign,” even more significant than the “super-campaign” of 2021/22.

Producers in Argentina, a major global wheat exporter, have already harvested 15% of the planted area, the exchange said, noting record yields in the country’s three most important farming provinces.

Argentina’s wheat crop benefited from above-average rainfall during its critical development stage, with the exchange’s report also highlighting agricultural sector’s significant investment in technology this season, particularly in seeds and disease control.

For Argentina’s 2025/26 corn and soybean crops, the exchange maintained its harvest estimates at 61 million and 47 million tons, respectively. The report also indicated that local farmers have planted 40% of the expected corn area and 10% of the soybean area.

 

Brazil’s first corn sowing largely on schedule despite some delays in Southeast

2025/26 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 138.8 [128.9–146.3] MILLION TONS, UP FRACTIONALLY FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil total corn production is fractionally increased to 138.8 [129.8–146.3] million tons, driven by a small increase in first-corn sown area. As of November 8, 47.7% of first-corn has been planted nationwide, similar to 2024 (48.7%) and 2023 (46.8%), according to CONAB’s crop progress report. Planting is nearly completed in Southern states —Rio Grande do Sul (86%), Santa Catarina (96%), and Parana (99%)—while Southeast states like Minas Gerais (27%) and Sao Paulo (45%) face some delays from recent heavy rains. CONAB estimated total corn area at 22.7 million hectares and production at 138.6 million tons in October, slightly below our estimates of 22.9 million hectares and 138.8 million tons.

Brazil’s first crop corn regions generally had adequate soil moisture. Over the past month, most southern areas were relatively dry, enabling fast planting such as Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. However, ongoing wet conditions have been recorded in Panara and the Southeast, leading to slower corn planting in Minas Goias and Sao Paulo. Paraná saw over 200 mm of rain last month—well above average—which increased the risk of excessive wetness, although first-corn planting is complete there. Weather forecasts predict average rainfall for most of the South over the next two weeks, aiding crop growth, but Parana may get an additional 50-70 mm of precipitation, potentially increasing wetness concerns. The Southeast will likely have little rain in the next 7 days, which could accelerate corn planting progress, but heavier rains are expected in the following week.

The LSEG Weather Research team’s latest ENSO outlook for December-February indicates a high chance of weak La Niña, likely bringing above-average rainfall to northern Brazil and dryness to the south. EC seasonal and CFS long-range forecasts also predict relatively dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, potentially threatening first-corn yields there. Weather conditions in the South should be monitored carefully as the main growing season approaches.

 

Palm Oil Output Growth Seen Flat in 2026 as La Niña Hits: CPOPC

Global palm oil production growth is expected to be flat next year due to a combination of La Niña, old trees, high fertilizer costs, and land seizures in Indonesia, according to an industry group.

• Output seen at ~82 million tons in 2026, around the same level as this year, said Chandran Gunalan, director of strategy and policy at the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries
  • Compares with 79m tons in 2024, he said in an interview on the sidelines of an industry conference in Bali on Thursday
• La Niña’s strength will be a key factor determining production
• Rising number of trees older than 25 years in Malaysia, as well as slow replanting rates in Indonesia, will curb supplies in the top growers
• Indonesian output seen ~50m tons next year, Malaysia’s ~20m tons
• Surging fertilizer costs over past couple of years have led to some farmers reducing its application, which may constrain yields
• There’s been little activity seen at plantations seized by Indonesia, putting estates at risk of becoming idle
• Elsewhere, Latin American output increasing due to expansions
  • Colombian output seen at 2m tons this year, up from 1.9m tons
• CPOPC officials have met with representatives from the EU parliament as well as European policymakers to discuss considerations for smallholders to make it easier for them to comply with the EUDR
• NOTE: CPOPC is an inter-governmental organization that represents 88% of global palm production; members include Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea and Democratic Republic of Congo

 

India’s palm oil imports hit 5-year low as soyoil purchases surge to record

India’s palm oil imports slid to their lowest level in five years during the 2024/25 marketing year, while purchases of soyoil soared to a record high as a widening price premium made palm oil less attractive to buyers, a leading industry body said on Thursday.

Lower palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could boost inventories in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and pressure benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.

Palm oil imports in the 2024/25 marketing year ended in October fell 15.9% from a year ago to 7.58 million metric tons, the lowest since 2019/20, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said in a statement.

Soyoil imports in the year jumped 59% to a record 5.47 million tons, while sunflower oil purchases fell 16.3% to 2.9 million tons, the SEA said.

For most of the marketing year, palm oil traded at a premium to soyoil, prompting refiners to switch to soyoil, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the SEA.

India’s total vegetable oil imports in the year rose marginally to 16.36 million tons from the previous year’s 16.23 million tons the SEA said.

Palm oil’s share in India’s total vegetable oil imports dropped to a record low of 47% from 56% last year, while soyoil and sunflower oil together gained ground, rising to a combined share of 53% from 44%.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

India’s refined vegetable oil imports from Nepal rose sharply to a record 746,400 tons, as the Himalayan nation’s exports enjoy duty-free access under a regional trade pact, Mehta said.

India spent a record 1.61 trillion rupees on vegetable oil imports in 2024/25, surpassing last year’s 1.32 trillion rupees, the SEA said.

In October, India’s palm oil imports fell 27.7% from a month ago to 602,381 tons, the lowest level in five months, according to the SEA. Soyoil imports fell 17.2% to 454,619 tons, while sunflower oil imports eased 5.4% to 260,548 tons.

India’s total edible oil imports dropped 20% month-on-month in October to 1.33 million tons, with refiners cutting back after heavy purchases in earlier months for the festive season.

 

Malaysia’s palm oil output likely to surpass 20 mln T for first time in 2025

Malaysia’s crude palm oil production is expected to surpass 20 million metric tons for the first time in 2025, supported by favourable weather, improved labour supply, and higher-yielding new plantations, trade and industry officials told Reuters.

The record output means the world’s second-largest producer of the tropical oil is likely to end the year with higher-than-expected stocks, weighing on benchmark Malaysian futures FCPOc3.

This year’s output is estimated to be 3.4% higher than last year’s 19.34 million tons and to surpass the previous record of 19.96 million tons set in 2015, according to estimates from a dozen trade and industry officials.

Production in November is expected to ease from record October levels, with a further decline likely in December, but output should remain above last year’s levels, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

“Even with a drop in November and December, total production is still set to top 20 million tons,” he said.

In October, production rose 11.02% month-on-month to 2.04 million tons, its highest since August 2015, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).

 

Indonesia’s Palm Replanting Goal for Farmers to Fall Short

Indonesia’s goal of replacing 120,000 hectares of old palm oil trees with new plants at small farms this year is poised to fall significantly short, after the country missed expectations in 2024.

• The replanting program reached 23,000 ha by the end of October, Abdul Roni Angkat, acting director general for estate crops at the agriculture ministry, said at a conference in Bali
• Replanting was less than 50,000 ha in 2024, ~41% of annual target
• Issues related to land legality and the loss of income during replanting are among concerns holding back farmers following the program
• Government has encouraged farmers to plant rice and corn for alternative income while waiting for new palm oil trees to start production
• NOTE: About 2.8m hectares of smallholder farms need to be replanted due to aging trees; smallholders make up 6.94m ha of Indonesia’s planted area for palm oil
• Separately, more than 1,200 companies hold Indonesian sustainability certification known as ISPO, which covers 7.2m ha of plantations
• Without replanting, output could decline from about 50m tons of crude palm oil this year to 44m tons in 2045, according to Baginda Siagian, Director of Oil Palm Plantation and Palms at the ministry
  • Govt plans to allow smallholders to cultivate 400,000 ha of new plantations to also boost palm oil production

 

Indonesia Seeks New Palm Oil Markets Due to Tariff Uncertainty

Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil shipper, is seeking to diversify its export markets due to uncertainty stemming from US tariffs and its biodiesel policies, according to a senior government official.

• Country looking at “de-risking and diversifying” by entering new markets in Latin America and Africa, Arif Havas Oegroseno, vice minister of foreign affairs, said at a conference in Bali on Thursday
• There’s a major shift in business and economics due to geopolitical uncertainty, he said, adding that “CEOs are scrambling to get a sense of where the world is going”
• Indonesia also looking at entering the Nigerian vegetable oil market

 

Indonesia to Start Road Tests on B50 Palm Blend in December

Indonesia will start road safety tests for its planned B50 biofuel program early next month and may limit its initial use to the public sector due to concerns over palm oil supplies.

Results are expected six months after the tests, which will be conducted across the automotive, mining, and agriculture sectors in vehicles such as tractors and trucks, and even trains and ships, said Eniya Listiani Dewi, head of renewables at the energy ministry. She spoke at a conference in Bali on Thursday.

The world’s biggest producer of palm oil is planning to expand its biodiesel mandate from 40% to 50% by the second half of next year to slash a hefty fuel import bill and greenhouse gas emissions. The palm industry is closely watching Indonesia’s timing of the rollout, as the program is expected to soak up supplies available for export and lead to a global squeeze and higher prices.

The government is considering partial B50 implementation, only for the public sector, due to potential supply issues, Dewi told reporters. The ideal blend for non-public sector use will be studied in the meantime, she added.

“The increase in palm oil productivity is very important. If we go to B50, we must consider the incentives,” Dewi said. Producers could be asked to allocate a certain volume to biofuel feedstock at a set price, though the government is aware it could further burden growers, Dewi said.

To ensure steady supplies, Indonesia would need to expand its palm plantations, said Baginda Siagian, a palm official at the agriculture ministry. The country currently has a moratorium in place for opening up forests for new plantations — a move that was essential to slowing rampant deforestation and welcomed by environmentalists.

“Agriculture ministry plans for expanding new palm oil plantations by 600,000 hectares, including 400,000 hectares for smallholders and the rest for state-owned companies, to fulfill rising domestic demand,” he said on the sidelines of the conference, without elaborating further.

The Indonesian Plantation Fund, which collects export levies to fund the biofuel program, has recommended the blending ratio be adjusted based on biodiesel prices.

The program should also diversify its feedstock to include waste-based oils, such as used cooking oil, to reduce reliance on palm, which is exposed to price swings, Eddy Abdurrachman, president director of the agency, said at the conference.

 

Indonesian Palm Oil Production +11% Y/y Over First Nine Months

Indonesia’s palm oil production over the first nine months of the year was ~43m tons, +11% y/y, Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki, said at a conference in Bali.

• Palm-based exports, including oleochemicals and biodiesel, were more than 25m tons, ~13% higher y/y
• Domestic consumption rose to 18.5m tons, compared with 17.6m tons in the corresponding period last year

 

Indonesia official says palm oil exports drop 11%-12% in 2026 due to B50

Indonesia’s palm oil exports may drop by 11% to 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of a biodiesel blend containing 50% of palm oil-based fuel, Baginda Siagian, an Agriculture Ministry director, said on Thursday.

It was unclear whether his calculation is based on a full year of implementation of the biodiesel mandate or a half year. Indonesia aims to introduce the B50 blend in the second half of next year.

 

Global wine output subdued by climate shocks, OIV says

Global wine production rose slightly in 2025, but output remained below average for a third consecutive year as vineyards faced extreme and volatile weather, the International Organization of Vine and Wine said.

In first estimates, the OIV pegged worldwide wine output at 232 million hectolitres (mhl) this year, up 3% from 2024 but still 7% below the five-year average.

“If you look at the causes for the lower production of the last three years, the major part is really the climatic variations that we’ve seen across both hemispheres,” OIV Director General John Barker told Reuters.

“Some regions have had heat and drought, and then they’ve had torrential rains or unexpected frosts. And the fact that it’s really the third year in a row where we’re seeing these sorts of effects is quite striking.”

In Europe, France recorded its smallest harvest since 1957 and Spain’s output fell to a 30-year low, while Italy regained its position as the world’s top producer with an 8% rise in output, helped by favourable weather conditions.

The U.S., the world’s fourth-largest wine producer, is expected to produce 21.7 mhl of wine, up 3% from 2024, though well below historical peaks and 9% below the five-year average.

Production in the Southern Hemisphere rebounded 7% after falling for three consecutive years, led by South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil, offsetting declines in Chile, but output remained 5% below average, OIV said.

Limited growth in global wine production was expected to help stabilise inventories amid sluggish demand in mature markets, falling consumption in China and continued uncertainty in global trade, Barker said.

“Low output can be very difficult for individual producers and regions … but from a macroeconomic perspective, it’s a positive, because it really makes sure that production and consumption are more or less aligned,” Barker said.

The OIV is due to update its estimates later this year. A hectolitre is the equivalent of 133 standard wine bottles.

 

 

 

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