Global Ag News For Nov 11.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Canada agriculture minister says canola trade prospects are improving after China visit

Canada’s agriculture minister said in an interview on Monday his weeklong trip to China is evidence of bilateral relations beginning to thaw, something desperately needed by Canada’s farmers and canola exporters.

Canada’s canola exports have been effectively blocked from China, at times Canada’s biggest seed export market, for months due to import duties on Canadian canola seed, oil and meal. These were part of China’s response to Canada’s 2024 100% duties on Chinese electric vehicles. Canola sales to China were worth C$4.9 billion ($3.49 billion) in 2024.

“This is not 2018 anymore. This is 2025. It’s a new (Canadian) government. We have a new leader. We want to do business,” Canada’s Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald said a week after his return.

China had blocked most Canadian canola imports and some other products in 2018 in response to Canada arresting a Huawei executive on a U.S. warrant.

After the executive was released, relations became less frosty and canola sales recovered, until former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau followed the U.S. in imposing the EV tariffs.

MacDonald said his trip included meetings with senior Chinese government, research and commercial agriculture representatives whom he found willing to work together on agriculture issues.

No timeline or promises have been made on removing the Chinese restrictions, MacDonald said, but the relationship is warmer.

“We’re leaning on an open door and I think it’s important that we keep the communication open,” said MacDonald. After the minister’s visit a delegation of technical officials began looking at resolving trade snags.

The EV issue was raised in the agriculture talks, MacDonald said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economic summit in Korea on October 31 and invited him to visit China. MacDonald said this is a sign of the thawing relations.

“I’m optimistic. I really am. I think we’re going to get somewhere. I think the willingness is there by both countries,” he said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal down $3.10; Soyoil up 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 8 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 9 3/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 1.15.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 14 1/2 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil up 1.30.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, up 1/8 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans up 11 1/2; Soymeal down $4.70; Soyoil up 2.15.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.9% in SRW, down 6.0% in HRW, down 5.1% in HRS; Corn is down 6.3%; Soybeans up 11.8%; Soymeal up 3.0%; Soyoil up 27.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil up 42; Palm oil up 82; Corn up 19 — Malaysian Palm is up 25.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 25 ringgit (+0.61%) at 4137.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,134 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 470 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 10 were: SRW Wheat down 11,521 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,169, Corn down 102, Soybeans up 15,277, Soymeal up 2,426, Soyoil down 392.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 NOVEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: U.S. crop regions will lift out of the cold snap from west to east this week, and warmth will carry into late November from there in a positive outlook for crop progress
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry weather along the Argentina Pampas through the next 10-15 days will be favorable for corn/soybean plantings
• EAST ASIA: China temperatures will oscillate over the next couple weeks, but a dry pattern will prevail to the benefit of winter wheat plantings
• SOUTH ASIA: Cool/dry conditions will dominate over north/central India through the next 1-2 weeks, supporting wheat planting progress
• TROPICS: Typhoon Fung-Wong will curve northward to make landfall in Taiwan by mid-week at tropical storm intensity, bringing strong winds/flooding to the island

DRY SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PAMPAS AND CENTRAL BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Dry weather across the Pampas
• Wet spells in South, while dry in Center West Brazil

 

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Brazil – Friday Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Northern Plains: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, well above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 11/10 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, has purchased about 500,000 metric tons of wheat in recent weeks for import between late December and January, the agency told Reuters on Monday. The latest purchase includes around 200,000 tons of Russian wheat, with the remainder sourced from Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania, the agency said.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Sunday. The requirement for shipment to two ports only generally indicates a small purchase is planned.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only, European traders said on Sunday. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 metric tons but the shipment to two ports generally indicates a small purchase is planned.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.425m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.089m of Soybeans

In week ending Nov. 6, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,425k tons vs 1,712k the previous wk, 807k a yr ago
• Wheat: 291k tons vs 350k the previous wk, 354k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Nov. 6

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Nov. 6 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Pakistan-bound shipments made up 187k tons of the 1.09m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

CROP SURVEY: US Corn Harvest Seen 92% Complete, Soybeans 96%

The US corn harvest seen advancing to 92% complete in the week ending Nov. 9, according to the average in a Bloomberg News survey of as many as 13 analysts.

• This compares to 95% complete last year at this time
• Soybean harvest seen at 96% complete, the same as last year

 

Brazil 2025/26 Corn Estimate Raised to 143.6M MT: Safras

Total corn output estimate raised to 143.6 million metric tons from 142.5 million tons previously, according to an emailed report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Total area estimate raised to 21.7 million ha, which compares to prior estimate of 21.6 million ha
• Average yield seen at 6,618 kg/ha, above the 6,532 kg/ha seen in previous season

 

Brazil Soybean Planting 61% Done as of Nov. 6: AgRural

Planting of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop reached 61% of the estimated area as of Nov. 6, compared with 47% a week earlier and 67% a year ago, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Planting of the summer corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region was 72% completed, compared with 59% a week earlier and 72.5% a year ago

 

Brazilian plants cleared to export sorghum, distillers grains to China

Brazil has received its first approvals to export sorghum and dried distillers grains (DDG) to China, the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry said on Monday.

China gave the green light for 10 Brazilian plants to export sorghum, while five were cleared to ship corn-based DDG and DDG with solubles (DDGS), which are used as animal feed, to the Asian country, the ministry said in a statement.

China is Brazil’s top soybean buyer and has been seeking to diversify both animal feed ingredients and sourcing after a trade dispute with the United States curbed U.S. sorghum shipments to the Chinese market this year.

China accounts for more than 80% of global sorghum imports, which totaled more than $2.6 billion last year, the ministry said.

“With these authorizations, Brazil now has a regular channel for shipments to the world’s largest importer of grains and feed inputs, improving contract predictability and creating room to increase export volumes in coming harvests,” the ministry added.

Production of DDG, or corn meal — a key animal feed ingredient — is expected to rise in Brazil as corn ethanol output grows. Production of corn ethanol is forecast to increase 22.6% in the current 2025/26 season, according to Brazil’s crop agency Conab.

Brazil exported more than 790,000 metric tons of corn meal in 2024, up from 600,000 tons in 2023, according to the agriculture ministry. Vietnam is the main destination for Brazilian shipments.

The export clearance follows the Protocol on Proteins and Grain Derivatives from the Corn Ethanol Industry signed in May and the completion of phytosanitary certificate models agreed upon by authorities in both countries.

The first Brazilian sorghum shipments to China could be loaded later this year, a Brazilian Agriculture Ministry official told Reuters in September after a Chinese delegation visited sorghum producers in early August.

Brazil’s sorghum output is projected to grow 8.4% in 2025/26 to 6.6 million tons, Conab estimates, after strong gains in recent years. But exports totaled only 200,000 tons last year, ministry data show. Sorghum can also be used as feedstock for grain-based ethanol production.

 

Brazil 2025/2026 Total Corn Crop Could Reach 143.56 Million Tons – Safras

• BRAZIL 2025/2026 TOTAL CORN CROP COULD REACH 143.562 MILLION TONS, UP FROM 142.494 MILLION TONS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – SAFRAS
• BRAZIL 2025/2026 FIRST CROP SEEN AT 25.765 MILLION TONS, UP FROM 25.476 MILLION TONS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – SAFRAS

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices drop in RS, but are firm in PR

The progress of the harvesting keeps wheat prices moving down in many regions surveyed by Cepea, especially in Rio Grande do Sul state. In Paraná, weather conditions affected crop activities, sustaining quotations in the first week of November. In São Paulo, prices are firm due to the end of the harvesting.

According to data from Cepea, between October 31 and November 7, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values dropped 2.11% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.38% in Santa Catarina, but rose 0.46% in Paraná and 1.62% in São Paulo. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) remained stable in Paraná, but downed 4.4% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.23% in SC. The US dollar decreased 0.8% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.338 on November 7.

Prices paid to producers are below the minimum value of the government’s guarantee policy, which opens room for federal intervention, aiming to support trades and assure the minimum remuneration to producers.

Conab released the liberation of BRL 67 million to support the flowing of 250 thousand tons of wheat from Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. Pepro (Equalization Premium Paid to the Producer and/or Cooperative) and Pep (Premium for Marketing of Products) auctions are expected to take place in order to transfer the product from the producing regions to other areas, reducing the local supply, which can sustain prices in the spot market.

Conan’s minimum price is at BRL 78.51 per 60-kilo bag. Data from Cepea indicate that wheat prices paid to producers in Passo Fundo (RS) closed at BRL 57.52/bag on Nov. 7 and at BRL 63.95/bag in the west of Paraná.

 

Thailand to Raise Feed Corn Import Quota in 2026 Under US Deal

Thailand’s cabinet approved a plan to set a quota of 1m tons of feed corn imports next year with a 0% tariff as part of trade negotiations with the US, government spokesman Siripong Angkasakulkiat said.

• The new quota will replace this year’s 54,700 tons, which is subject to a 20% tariff, he tells a news briefing after Tuesday’s cabinet meeting
• Imports must take place between Feb. 1 and June 30 to minimize the impact on local farmers
• Private companies wishing to import under the quota will be required to purchase domestic farm products at a ratio of 3:1 to their import volume: Siripong

 

Russia’s 2026 Wheat Crop Seen Near 84M Tons, Lower Y/y: SovEcon

Russia’s 2026 wheat harvest is seen at 83.8m tons, Andrey Sizov, head of agriculture consultancy SovEcon, said at the Global Grain Geneva conference, marking his first estimate of the next crop.

• That compares to SovEcon’s latest forecast of 87.8m tons for 2025
• The drop is mainly driven by an expected decline in wheat plantings, which could offset initial favorable weather conditions

 

Russian wheat export prices slightly up, weekly shipments maintain pace

Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week, and weekly shipments are maintaining their pace, according to analysts.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in mid-December was at $232 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $1.5 in a week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

He called it a small seasonal increase, partially related to compensation for storage costs. “There should be no illusions here. By and large, nothing has changed,” Rylko said.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at $232 to $233 a ton FOB compared with $230 to $233 a ton the previous week.

Sovecon’s first estimate of November wheat exports is 4.7 million tons.

IKAR this week estimated November exports at 5.2 million-5.4 million tons, which is slightly lower than 5.3 million-5.5 million tons predicted a week earlier.

Export demand for wheat remained relatively firm in ports, while supply was limited, Sovecon said. Analysts see high supply in non-southern areas, where harvest pressure remains strong.

Russia is considering a grain export quota of 20 million tons for the second half of the marketing season, from February 15 to June 30, 2026, according to a draft document published by the Russian Grain Union lobby last week.

Last year, the quota was set at 10.6 million tons, and applied only to wheat and meslin.

“We believe the proposal is overall neutral for Russian exports in 2025/26. We estimate wheat exports during the quota period at around 15 million tons, with total grain exports unlikely to reach the 20 million tons ceiling,” Sovecon said in a weekly note.

 

US Milk Production Rose 4.2% Y/y in September, USDA Says

Agency releases report on website.

• Output for the 24 major-producing states was 18.28b lbs, 735m more than in September of last year
• Milk per cow averaged 1,999 lbs, a 1.5% increase from last year
• Estimated output for all the US rose 4% y/y to 18.99b lbs

 

 

 

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