Written Commentary
TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS—USDA CROP PRODUCTION, S/D REPORTS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 1 cent, HRW unchanged; HRS Wheat unchanged, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil up 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 31 yuan in soybeans, up 8 in Corn, down 43 in Soymeal, down 50 in Soyoil, and down 30 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 28 ringgit at 3,255 (basis January) supported by October trade data but, saw gains limited by low Nov 1-10 export estimates versus a month ago.
South America Weather Forecast: The Brazilian growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period has showers and thunderstorms bringing fair to good amount of rainfall to 95% of the growing areas. Temps will run close to average. The Argentine growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period has light to moderate rainfall favoring the far northeastern growing areas with things quiet elsewhere. Temps will run near average before cooling for the weekend and early next week.
U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day forecast has rains for eastern areas of KS and OK and most of the Midwest this coming weekend. Temps will go from above average ahead of a moving front currently to average behind it and stay there into early next week.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 6,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; bought 1,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 1,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 307,000 Corn; net long 245,000 Soybeans; net long 91,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 100,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,500 contracts; HRW Wheat down 40; Corn down 7,600; Soybeans up 3,300 contracts; Soymeal up 575 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,400.
Deliveries were 60 contracts for Soybeans.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 297; Soyoil 1,808 lots; Soymeal 193; Rice 417; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
Tender Activity—Iran seeks 60,000t optional-origin wheat, 30,000t soyoil, 30,000t sunoil—S. Korea bought 60,000t optional-origin corn—
Wire story reports the November supply and demand update from the U.S. Department of Agriculture is often relatively quiet compared with other months, but global corn trade is high on the market’s watch list this time around with eyes on both China and the United States; market participants have long been waiting for recognition from the U.S. government that China plans to import more than 7 million tons of corn over the next year, especially since its U.S. purchases alone exceed that number.
U.S. Winter Wheat plantings were 93% complete (trade estimate 94%) versus 89% last week and 91% average.
Winter Wheat conditions were seen at 45% good to excellent (44% trade estimate) versus 43% last week and 54% a year ago; 17% poor to very poor versus 19% last week and 13% a year ago
The U.S. Corn harvest was seen 91% complete (trade estimate 91%) versus 82% last week and 80% average.
The U.S. Soybean harvest was seen 92% complete (trade estimate 94%) versus 87% last week and 90% average.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running 2% ahead of a year ago (4% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year
—Corn 74% ahead of a year ago (up 75% last week) with the USDA up 32% for the season
—Soybeans are up 78% on the year (up 78% last week) with the USDA having a 26% increase forecasted on the year
China’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday the new corn crop was not much affected by typhoons that hit the northeastern region earlier; the corn harvest this year has largely completed, and the quality and quantity of the new crop was not affected significantly, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said
Brazilian farmers had planted 56% of the area forecast to be sown with the crop as of March 5, according to agricultural consultancy AgRural; that’s up from 42% a week earlier, though slightly behind the 58% planted on the same date last year.
Argentine grain port workers launched surprise strikes to protest stalled wage talks, their labor union said, delaying shipments; we are going to make surprise halts as much as we consider it necessary,” said a spokesman for the URGARA union, which represents inspectors who check the quality of grains before they are loaded onto ships; it is a strike in one of the richest sectors in Argentina; we have exhausted all avenues of dialogue; the conflict comes as a major oilseed union in the main grains export hub has separately been threatening strike action over pandemic payments, currently under mediation by the government, which is keen to keep the industry operating smoothly.
Russian wheat export prices rose last week, after a decline the week before, driven by suppressed sales by farmers, a stronger rouble and improved wheat prices in Chicago and Paris; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports was at $253 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week; SovEcon, another Moscow consultancy, said wheat had stayed at $253.
Russia’s October exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 4.95 million tons, down from 5.66 million tons in September, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 had reached 7.84 million tons by Nov. 8, official EU data showed; that was 24% below the volume cleared by Nov. 10 last year
Soybean imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totaled 5.02 million tons by Nov. 8, official EU data showed; that was 5% above the volume imported by the same week in the previous 2019/20 season
Euronext wheat edged higher on Monday as a pullback in the euro from a two-month high against the dollar and a large purchase by Saudi Arabia underscored a favorable export outlook; gains were capped by signs of competitive prices for Australia’s incoming harvest and caution on grain markets before Tuesday’s monthly supply and demand outlook from the U.S. Department of Agriculture; front-month December milling wheat settled up 0.50 euro, or 0.2%, at 209.25 euros ($247.27) a ton.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for November 1 – 10 fell 19.1 percent to 428,445 tons from 529,462 tons shipped during October 1 – 10, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
MALAYSIA’S NOV 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 443,895 TONNES VERSUS OCT 1-10 AT 535,552 TONNES – AMSPEC MALAYSIA
Malaysia Oct palm oil stocks at 3-year low on export strength, tight output
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