Global Ag News For May 4.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Romania Corn Acreage Seen at Lowest in Decade on Drought, Costs

Corn acreage in Romania, Europe’s third-largest producer, is seen dropping to the lowest level in more than 10 years as soaring fuel and fertilizer costs combined with a damaging drought discourage farmers from planting the crop.

This year’s area will be about 1.6 million hectares, according to the median of nine estimates from traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would be a drop of about a fifth from almost 2 million hectares last year, and the lowest since at least 2015, according Eurostat data.

“The overall trend — especially in the south and in western Romania — is to go less and less and less,” Stan Tiberiu-Dan, vice president of the Forum of Professional Farmers and Processors from Romania, which represents growers, said by text message.

The Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have sent fertilizer and energy prices soaring, pushing up input costs for farmers struggling with already thin margins. If the conflict doesn’t ease by the middle of the year, the United Nations has warned that lower crop yields could push as many as 45 million more people into acute hunger.

Corn requires larger amounts of nitrogen and growers in other parts of the region have started to cut plantings. In France, the European Union’s top grains producer, farmers could cut corn plantings by some 15% this year, a local farm group has warned.

The Bloomberg survey, conducted during and after last week’s EuroGrain Exchange in Bucharest, is below the March forecast of 1.95 million hectares from the EU grains group Coceral.

Persistent drought conditions are plaguing the western part of the Romania, where unusually low rainfall and snowfall has sapped moisture from soils and plants, data from the European Drought Observatory show.

Poor growing conditions and expensive fertilizer have led farmer Mihai Sadica to plant no corn this year. It’s increasingly becoming difficult to make a profit growing corn, even in irrigated areas, he said.

“Input costs have increased significantly,” said Sadica, who heads a local grower association in Dobrogea, in the southeast of Romania. “Selling prices have not adjusted accordingly.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 8; Soymeal up $1.10; Soyoil up 0.26.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 4 1/4 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 11; Soybeans up 18 3/4; Soymeal down $7.40; Soyoil up 3.77.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1/2 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans up 15 3/4; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil up 0.88.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 23.2% in SRW, up 31.7% in HRW, up 22.7% in HRS; Corn is up 6.0%; Soybeans up 16.0%; Soymeal up 8.9%; Soyoil up 58.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 26) Soybeans up 1 yuan; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil up 47; Palm oil up 103; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 56.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 56 ringgit (+1.23%) at 4626.

There were changes in registrations (-82 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 434 SRW Wheat contracts; 208 Oats; 393 Corn; 890 Soybeans; 1,506 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 501 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 1 were: SRW Wheat down 1,272 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,841, Corn up 39,803, Soybeans up 10,854, Soymeal up 5,239, Soyoil up 6,243.

 

THE FIRST HALF OF MAY WILL BE VERY COLD AND DRY ACROSS KEY CROP AREAS OF THE U.S., WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE IMPACTS ON WINTER WHEAT

Weather Anomaly Severity: High (U.S. cold/dry weather)

Crops impacted: Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Rapeseed

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 10 days, lower afterward due to disagreement about whether U.S. cold risks will persist

Model Change (from previous update): Drier over the U.S. Plains

  

Northern Plains: Some isolated showers moved through this weekend and will also be possible this week into next week as well. Overall though, conditions should be dry enough for fieldwork. Temperatures are not favorable this week with some frosts and freezes. A western ridge pressing into the area could bring temperatures up this weekend into next week, but models could easily change that forecast. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers fell in parts of the region over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry and where rain fell, only light amounts were recorded. A front moving into the region on Monday will bring about more widespread precipitation for the middle of the week, including some moderate precipitation potential for the driest areas in Nebraska and Kansas, but will also be cold enough for snow in Colorado and adjacent areas in Nebraska and Kansas on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Amounts could be very heavy, which would be damaging for winter wheat or any emerging corn and soybeans. Cold temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday could also cause damage. Temperatures will moderate for later this week and next week. Additional chances for showers will flow through the region this weekend and next week, though coverage looks sparse and amounts do not look heavy like the region needs for its deep drought.

Midwest: Periods of showers have moved through the region over the weekend, but were mostly light. Frosts also occurred, which could have produced some damage to more advanced wheat and some emergent soybeans. More scattered showers and cold air will move through the region this week, targeting southern areas with the heaviest precipitation. Additional frosts and freezes may occur later this week, but will need the skies to be clear and winds to be calm in which to do so. Models currently have poor conditions for frost, but those may change later this week. The region will remain active with smaller storm systems continuing to push through the region this weekend and next week. Overall, this should produce good conditions for emergence and early growth for crops in the ground, but may cause issues for those trying to plant.

Delta: Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions, but large deficits remain. A front and system moving along it will produce more rain and some severe rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. Additional chances will be possible this weekend and next week, especially across the north. This should continue to turn the momentum toward diminishing drought, though this will be a long process even if it continues.

Canadian Prairies: A few isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but warmer temperatures helped to melt the remaining snow and warm soils a bit. However, a strong cold front moved through on Sunday afternoon and evening and is bringing in another round of very cold air for the next few days, especially east. Western areas will start to warm up by the end of the week, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, this is leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, soil moisture is very good and will help for early growth once the crop is planted.

Brazil: Some rain fell over the far south over the weekend, but missed a lot of the safrinha corn areas in Parana. Some showers are possible Monday and from a front moving in on Thursday night through Saturday. But those showers will be waning as the front moves into central Brazil, typical for this time of year. Hot and dry conditions is unfavorable for filling corn in most areas.

Argentina: Corn and soybean continue to see harvest advancing, though it is a slow process for most of the country. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Soil moisture has been falling a bit ahead of the winter wheat planting, but conditions are still favorable. A system moving through Wednesday and Thursday should add some moisture to wheat areas.

Europe: Scattered showers fell over western areas over the weekend and were heavy in some areas that needed it. Those showers will spread eastward this week, getting some needed rain into the northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent, or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

Black Sea: Some showers moved across the southeast this weekend, but most areas stayed dry and temperatures rose, with frosts becoming very limited. Periods of showers continue over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more rain.

China: The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Very limited showers over the next 10-14 days is not favorable either. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

 

The player sheet for 5/1 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 18,500 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 148,240 metric tons of U.S. corn to undisclosed destinations. The total included 78,240 tons for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year that began on September 1, 2025, and the remaining 70,000 tons for 2026/27 delivery.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Incheon section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased up to 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Monday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was April 21.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase about 20,000 tons of rice sourced from the United States and Vietnam, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender was April 28. Results of the tender may not be known for some weeks after price submissions, traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Monday. A new announcement had been anticipated by traders after Jordan made no purchase in a previous tender for 120,000 tons of animal feed barley on Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Soybean Crushings at 227.4M Bushels in March: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 10% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 6.5% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 18.1% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 474.4M Bu in March

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 4.76% higher than in March 2025
• In total, mills consumed 523m bu of corn in March, a 4% increase over last year
• DDGS production fell to 1.794m tons

 

Hungary Warns of Drought Hit to Agriculture From April Dry Spell

Hungary’s incoming government said it plans to take emergency steps to help farmers as a dry spell during much of April is leading to a severe drought in the grain-producing country.

The eastern European nation, which normally produces wheat and corn for export, barely saw rain last month, the national meteorological service said this week, calling the situation critical. Previous episodes of drought periodically contributed to outgoing premier Viktor Orban’s difficulties in reviving economic growth in recent years, due to the importance of the farming sector.

Peter Magyar, who is due to take over as prime minister on May 9, said in a statement on Saturday that he tasked his nominee for environment minister, Laszlo Gajdos, to draw up plans to help farmers while his Tisza party’s longer-term water conservation plans take time to have an effect.

“We need an immediate plan of action to minimize the impact of the severe drought expected for this year, for water resources, nature and landscape protection and agriculture,” Magyar said.

 

Egypt buys more than one million tonnes of wheat from local farmers, official says

Egypt bought more than one million tonnes of wheat from local farmers so far this season, Ahmad Idam, head of the services sector at the ministry of agriculture, told Reuters on Sunday.

The procurement season officially started in mid-April and ends in mid-August.

 

Malaysia Palm Oil Stockpiles Seen Shrinking to Eight-Month Low

Malaysia’s April palm oil stockpiles fell to their lowest level in eight months on stronger biofuel demand, though a surge in production limited a steeper decline in the world’s second-largest grower, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Inventories eased 0.4% from a month earlier to 2.26 million tons, according to the median of 11 estimates in a poll of plantation executives, traders and analysts. That marks the fourth straight month of declines, bringing reserves to the lowest since August 2025.

Domestic consumption climbed in April because a huge amount of palm oil and its byproducts went into making biofuel, according to Paramalingam Supramaniam, a director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn.

Biodiesel demand is getting a boost around the world as the Iran war sends prices of crude oil to multi-year highs, forcing governments to shore up energy security, including with crop-based fuels. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand — which together make up about 90% of global palm oil production — are planning to expand the use of the tropical oil in biofuels, crimping export availability.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur rose as much as 1.3% on Monday, and were trading at 4,628 ringgit a ton by 3:47 p.m. local time. Palm prices have gained about 15% since the start of the war in late February.

Read More: How the Hormuz Crisis Is Driving a Biofuels Boom: Explainer

Malaysia’s crude palm oil production jumped about 16% to 1.60 million tons, the biggest monthly increase in a year. Exports, meanwhile, suffered a 13% drop to 1.35 million tons, the survey showed, after surging 41% in March. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board is scheduled to publish official figures on May 11.

“Production proved to be too strong, thanks to the fantastic weather the past year with almost non-existent haze,” according to Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. “The numbers, however, are inflated due to the higher working days in April compared to March.”

Malaysia’s palm oil exports have struggled due to the Iran war and “silence” from destination markets, Bagani added, referring to muted demand from major consumers like India and China. Still, the tropical oil’s wide discount of about $106 a ton to gasoil — compared with an average premium of $253 over the past year — is bolstering biofuel demand and underpinning prices.

 

India resumes wheat exports after four years but high prices likely to limit demand

• India allows traders to export 5 million tons of wheat
• Indian wheat prices are above rival supplies
• Only buyers needing prompt deliveries likely to turn to India

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI, May 4 (Reuters) – Indian traders have begun exporting wheat for the first time in four years, as ample stocks, higher global prices and firmer freight rates have opened a window for them to make small shipments to buyers in Asia and the Middle East, trade sources said.

Consumer goods conglomerate ITC has started loading 22,000 metric tons of wheat at the western port of Kandla for shipment to the United Arab Emirates, sources said, declining to be identified as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

ITC did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

India, the world’s largest wheat producer after China, has allowed exports of the grain this year, lifting a ban on overseas sales imposed in 2022.

New Delhi extended curbs in 2023 and 2024 after extreme heat shrivelled crops and depleted stocks, pushing domestic prices to record highs and fuelling speculation it might need to import wheat for the first time since 2017.

Last year’s favourable weather led to a robust harvest, quashing speculation about imports, helping the government rebuild depleted reserves and giving it the confidence to allow exports.

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government allowed traders to export 2.5 million tons of wheat, before permitting another 2.5 million tons late last month for shipments.

Despite the permission to export, lower global prices and higher Indian rates dissuaded traders from signing export deals.

But the Iran conflict has pushed up freight costs and some buyers who need immediate shipments have turned to India, the trade sources said.

The deal to export 22,000 tons of wheat to the United Arab Emirates was signed at around $275 per ton free on board, sources said.

Despite the first export deal in four years, India is unlikely to see a surge in wheat exports, as domestic prices have risen in recent days because of crop damage, making Indian wheat more expensive than rival supplies from Australia or the Black Sea region.

Australian and Black Sea supplies are priced at around $290-$300 per ton, including cost, insurance and freight, leaving Indian wheat at least $20 a ton more expensive in global markets.

Only buyers with immediate supply gaps are likely to turn to Indian wheat, while those with adequate inventories of Australian, Argentine or Black Sea supplies will find it less attractive given its relatively higher prices, the sources said.

Importers with urgent, short-term requirements and seeking shipments within 30-45 days are the most likely to buy Indian wheat, they said.

 

India palm oil imports fall to one-year low in April on weak demand

India’s palm oil imports fell 27% to a one-year low in April, as sluggish demand from institutional buyers and a recent price rally that eroded its discount to rival oils prompted refiners to curb purchases, five dealers said.

Lower imports by the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils could increase stocks in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and weigh on benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.

Palm oil imports fell to 505,000 metric tons in April, the lowest since April 2025, down from 689,462 tons in March, per dealer estimates.

Soyoil imports rose 24% month-on-month in April to 355,000 tons, the highest in four months, while sunflower oil shipments more than doubled to 435,000 tons, the highest in 22 months.

India’s overall edible oil imports rose 10.4% from March to 1.3 million tons in April, the highest since January 2026, as sunflower oil and soyoil purchases jumped, estimates showed.

The figures exclude duty-free shipments arriving via land borders from Nepal, the dealers said.

The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India is set to release its April import data by mid-May.

Eateries and restaurants are facing cooking gas shortages, effectively reducing their palm oil consumption, a trend reflected in import numbers, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage and consultancy firm.

These restaurants serve popular dishes such as samosas and chole bhature, which are typically deep-fried.

India, the world’s second-largest cooking gas importer, is grappling with its worst gas crisis in decades, as the government cuts supplies to industry and raises commercial cylinder prices to shield households from shortages.

Sunflower oil imports jumped in April as refining margins were higher than rival oils, with Indian buyers placing orders ahead of disruptions linked to the Iran war, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at edible oil trader GGN Research at Rajkot, Gujarat.

 

Record US biofuel targets to test biodiesel industry after slow year

• Updates source quote in paragraphs 15 and 29 in Thursday story
• EPA mandates require 60% biomass-based diesel production increase, risking credit market volatility if unmet
• Industry leaders warn supply, feedstock, and capacity challenges may hinder meeting targets
• Analysts and EIA forecast potential deficits, with actual output lagging behind operable capacity

NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. biodiesel industry, still recovering from one of its most difficult years, will have a hard time ramping up production fast enough this year to meet the Environmental Protection Agency’s most ambitious biofuel blending mandates on record.

With fuel prices surging during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the EPA set its ambitious biofuel targets in late March. To meet the record target, companies that process soybeans into biodiesel must boost production by over 60% this year. Some industry bodies and biofuel experts doubt they will succeed, yet failure could further stoke the rise in diesel prices.

Farmers and agricultural groups have long lobbied Washington seeking higher biofuel mandates. U.S. soybean prices swooned last year, with exports down as China switched to Latin American crops in response to President Donald Trump’stariffs. Farmers are a prized political constituency for Trump and his Republican Party in their campaign to maintain thin majorities in Congress in November’s midterm elections.

The EPA set biodiesel and renewable diesel volume requirements of 5.4 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.7 billion for 2027, up from 3.35 billion last year.

“NOT EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO WHAT WE NEED”

EPA estimates that meeting the new obligations will require an actual supply of 6.07 billion gallons this year. That figure exceeds the mandates because some domestically produced biofuels are exported or otherwise don’t generate compliance credits.

Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, refiners are required to blend billions of gallons of biofuels into the nation’s fuel supply each year or purchase credits, known as RINs, from those that do.

Failure to reach the blending targets will force refiners and other obligated parties to draw on previously generated credits – known in the industry as the RIN bank – to comply with the EPA quotas, which could raise their prices. Those higher compliance costs can filter down to the pumps.

Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois and well-known expert on biofuels, estimates that obligated parties must generate 915 million credits per month to meet the EPA’s mandates.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending rose to 651 million in March from 481 million in the prior month, according to the latest EPA data from April 16.

“We are not even remotely close to what we need. It seems obvious that we’re headed for some big deficits and a big deficit build into 2027,” Irwin said.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook, forecast U.S. supply of about 1.52 billion gallons of biodiesel and 3.53 billion gallons of renewable diesel in 2026, a combined total below the EPA’s requirement.

 

Malaysia to Begin B15 Biodiesel Production From June: The Star

The Malaysian government has decided that B15 biodiesel must be produced at all of the country’s 19 active plants beginning June 1, as part of efforts to lower diesel prices, The Star reported, citing Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

• The blend will start at B15 before gradually being increased to B20, and within the next two to three years it may go up to B50, Ahmad Zahid said on Monday, the newspaper reported
• The blending rate is being increased in phases to ensure that crude palm oil prices will not burden biodiesel production
• Malaysia will utilize sludge or by-products from crude palm oil production; about 35% of the sludge will be fully used to produce biofuel as well as jet fuel
• Biodiesel has undergone capability testing for use in vehicles and has strong potential to stabilize and reduce diesel prices over the long term, The Star reported
• NOTE: Malaysia last month said it is “refining and reviewing” its national biofuel policy; will raise the mandate in stages to B15 from B10 currently, starting with B12. B15 refers to a 15% blend of palm-biofuel into diesel

 

Indonesia’s January-March palm oil export volume up 9.30% y/y

Indonesia exported 5.85 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in the January-to-March quarter, up 9.30% from the same period a year earlier, statistics bureau data showed on Monday.

The shipments were worth $6.11 billion.

In March, Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, exported 1.31 million tons at a value of $1.42 billion, the bureau said.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. GAPKI, Indonesia’s palm oil association, usually releases its own numbers at a later date, covering more products, and thus has different export figures.

 

Australia worried over mouse infestation’s impact on food supply

Australia’s government said on Saturday it was worried about a plague of mice in the west and would keep working with industry to curb its impact on food supply.

“Obviously we’re concerned about the mice situation including in Western Australia,” Energy Minister Chris Bowen said in televised remarks from Sydney.

According to local media, mice – a persistent problem in Australian grain-growing regions – have been infesting farms in the wheatbelt state of Western Australia. The situation prompted grain producers in April to warn of crop losses and call for access to more powerful mice poison.

Bowen said the centre-left government was continuing to work hard with industry to reduce the plague’s impact on local and overseas food supply.

“A mice plague is a very difficult situation for farmers and for industry and for governments,” he added.

Australia, the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter, suffered its worst mouse plague in 1993, when the rodents destroyed thousands of hectares of crops and attacked livestock in pig and chicken farms, according to the country’s science agency.

 

Low water hampers Rhine river shipping in Germany 

Low water levels after recent dry weather are preventing cargo vessels from sailing fully loaded on the Rhine river in Germany with surcharges added to the usual freight rates, commodity traders said on Monday.

Low water is hampering shipping on all of the river south of Duisburg and Cologne, including the chokepoint of Kaub, traders said. At Kaub, cargo vessels can only sail about 50% full, in northern regions 60-70% full depending on vessel type.

The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grains, minerals, ores, coal and oil products, including heating oil.

Shallow water means vessel operators impose surcharges on freight rates to compensate for vessels not sailing fully loaded, increasing costs for cargo owners. It also means loads must be spread among several vessels sailing part loaded, also increasing costs.

Rain forecast for the next week in river catchment areas means that some improvement could be in sight, traders said.

German companies faced supply bottlenecks and production problems in summer 2022 after a drought and heat wave led to unusually low water levels on the Rhine.

 

 

 

 

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