Global Ag News For May 30.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Malaysia’s Palm Oil Industry May Avoid Tariffs Fallout, TDM Says

TDM Bhd., a major player in Malaysia’s palm oil industry, expects demand for the commodity to be largely unaffected by US tariffs even as global economic uncertainties weigh on market sentiment.

“The escalating US-China trade tension will likely prompt China to lessen its reliance on US soybean imports by redirecting purchases to Brazil and Argentina, or by partially replacing soybean with palm oil, potentially increasing demand for Malaysian palm oil,” the company said in its earnings statement on Thursday.

TDM, which manages palm oil plantations, said demand for palm oil will continue to be robust in the medium to long-term in key markets such as India, Pakistan, the Middle East and the Philippines.

Palm oil prices should remain elevated this year as Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel program could reduce Indonesian palm oil exports by 7%, TDM said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 3/4 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil down 0.79.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, up 17 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/2; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil down 1.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 7 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 27 in HRS; Corn is down 26 3/4; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil down 1.37.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.5% in SRW, down 4.1% in HRW, up 4.7% in HRS; Corn is down 2.1%; Soybeans up 5.2%; Soymeal down 3.2%; Soyoil up 19.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 8 yuan; Soymeal up 13; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 36; Corn up 11 — Malaysian Palm is down 54.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 54 ringgit (-1.37%) at 3878.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 29 were: SRW Wheat up 1,355 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,456, Corn down 7,663, Soybeans up 4,564, Soymeal up 1,924, Soyoil up 4,608.

  

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 29 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A largely mixed temperature pattern is in the cards for North America during the next two weeks, though most corn/soy producing regions will likely avoid major anomalies
• SOUTH AMERICA: Very little precipitation is expected across the Pampas region of Argentina during the next 10 days
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Dry conditions are expected across parts of Indonesia and Malaysia during the next 10 days, with the largest deficits in the Sumatera region and western Borneo
• EUROPE: Widespread and significant warmth is likely to persist across Europe during the next two weeks, though there is notable disagreement between EC/GFS models beyond 5 days

  

Northern Plains: Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the region. The next system should move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and then a burst of some cooler temperatures for a few days. Another system should move through next weekend as well, keeping the region supplied with chances for beneficial rainfall.

Central/Southern Plains: Heavy rain will push out on Thursday after more than a week of really good amounts for a lot of the region. That should have boosted soil moisture and reduced drought across the vast majority of the region, though it also came with some severe weather and eastern Oklahoma and Texas have seen flooding. Another system will move through early-to-mid next week and models have been increasing the precipitation with this system. That could mean another round of some heavier rain in needed areas, while keeping the southeast too wet.

Midwest: An upper-level low-pressure system continues to spin around the region and bring showers through Friday. Amounts have not been or will be heavy for very many areas, but could be along the Ohio River Thursday night into Friday. That would be unfavorable for those still yet to plant. Another big system is forecast to move through the region next week with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and could bring another couple of rounds of heavier rainfall. Some areas that are a bit too dry will enjoy the rain, while others seeking a break may not. Cooler temperatures in the region this week will rise next week ahead of the system, but fall back toward normal behind it.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Scattered showers continue in the region through Friday and have potential for severe weather as well. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are mostly below normal this week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out. Temperatures should rise next week but that is ahead of yet another system that is now forecast to bring through more rounds of heavy rain and potential severe weather.

Canadian Prairies: Drier weather for much of this week should have allowed for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it after some good rain previously. A disturbance will bring showers through Thursday night and Friday. Models are pushing a system through Sunday and Monday, but are now limiting precipitation across the region. That will allow more fieldwork to get done, but some parts of the region may be getting a bit too dry. The pattern does favor another system moving through later next week, though.

Brazil: A front produced heavy rain over southern and south-central regions of Brazil earlier this week, with meaningful rainfall for some safrinha corn areas that may still be filling. The corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace. That pace will pick up in about two weeks. Colder air moving in behind the front could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana over the next couple of mornings. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

Argentina: Cold air is producing frosts in some areas over the next few mornings. Early frosts are not a significant concern for the remaining corn and soybean harvest, or early winter wheat establishment. Winter wheat is still in the early stages of planting and should increase through June.

Europe: Scattered showers continue to move over northern areas into the weekend, but amounts have not and continue to not be particularly heavy for very many areas which need it. The driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for additional heavy rainfall next week, though models are backing off on that a touch. The rain would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months and winter wheat is progressing through reproductive stages.

Black Sea: Heavy rain fell over western areas of the region over the last few days and the system responsible will be slow to move this week. It is spreading showers farther east through Ukraine, but will be very spotty going through western Russia as it passes through this weekend. Though showers have been more frequent, long-term rainfall deficits continue to be very large for much of the region, making for a lot of concern if and when conditions turn hotter and drier. A system or two may be possible next week, though models are unsure about the coverage with the rainfall.

 

SIGNIFICANT WARMTH TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN IN EUROPE AND THE BLACK SEA

What to Watch:

• Uniform warmth across both regions
• Mixed precipitation pattern ahead

 

The player sheet for 5/29 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 8,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: Exporters sold 104,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico and 101,096 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery by September 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 2.7% to 24.281M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.587 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.056m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.05m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending May 22.

• Corn est. range 800k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,075k
• Soybean est. range 150k – 700k tons, with avg of 353k

 

Argentina wheat planting begins at a good pace

Wheat planting for the 2025/26 season started at a good pace in Argentina, supported by dry weather in the west and north of the country, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday.

Argentina is a major world exporter of wheat and in recent weeks its farmers started sowing the cereal, with the BdeC projecting a planted area of 6.7 million hectares.

“Planting activity was mainly concentrated in the north and center-west of the agricultural region, with notable progress in the Center-North of Cordoba province, which is ahead of the average pace of the last five campaigns,” the exchange said, adding that 10.5% of the projected area had been planted.

However, wheat planting in the eastern core agricultural area faces delays due to recent heavy rains, the exchange added in its weekly crop report.

According to the exchange’s weekly crop report, harvesting of soybeans and corn in key eastern regions is running behind schedule, with the soybean harvest 80.7% complete and the corn harvest at 40.5%.

On Wednesday, the BdeC and the Rosario Grains Exchange said that dry and cold weather conditions in the coming days should help improve field access and allow harvest work to advance.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, and the third-largest exporter of corn. The BdeC forecasts 2024/25 soybean production at 50 million tonnes and corn production at 49 million tonnes.

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates May 29: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 production estimates maintained for soybeans and corn
• Soybean harvest advanced to 80.7% complete vs 74.3% in the previous week
• 2025-26 wheat planting advanced to 10.5% complete vs 3.4% in the previous week

 

Russia to Adjust Base Prices for Grain Export Duties: IFX

Russian Agricultural Ministry intends to maintain grain export duties but will adjust base prices for their calculation before the start of the new season, Interfax reports, citing ministry department head Sergei Smirnov.

• Information on the size of adjustment will be communicated to the market in the coming days
• NOTE: New season starts July 1

 

Russia’s Undistributed Wheat-Export Quota at 2.5M Tons: IFX

Russia’s undistributed wheat-export quota is at 2.5m tons and the nation’s grain exporters are not interested in claiming it, Interfax reported Thursday, citing Sergei Smirnov, head of department at the Agriculture Ministry.

• NOTE: Total volume of the 2025 wheat quota is 10.6m tons; it is in force between Feb. 15 and June 30; the bulk of it, more than 8 million tons, was distributed in February

 

SovEcon Raises 2025-26 Russian Wheat Export Est. to 40.8m Tons

SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 wheat exports by 1.1m tons, citing improved crop production, the consultancy said in a note.

• The upward revision follows a 1.2m ton upgrade to its wheat forecast for the next season
• Still, total grain exports for the 2025-26 season are forecast at lower at 49.4m tons vs 50.2m tons in the current season
  • Barley exports forecast at 2.7m tons, down from 3.6m tons
  • Corn exports are projected at 3.0m tons, up slightly from 2.8m tons
• A slow export pace is expected for wheat at season’s start “due to relatively high domestic ruble prices and a potentially average crop in southern regions, particularly in Rostov — the country’s top wheat-producing area”: SovEcon
  • Another factor would be “historically low” closing stocks expected at the end of the current season

 

Russia Sees 2025 Wheat Export at 44.5m Tons, Patrushev Says: IFX

Russia expects its 2025 wheat exports to be about 44.5m tons, Interfax reported, citing Deputy PM Dmitry Patrushev.

• Russia’s total 2025 grain exports are seen at 53m tons: Patrushev
• The nation’s sowing campaign is proceeding ahead of schedule, with around 48m ha planted for grains, including winter crops
  • All areas affected by spring frosts have been resown
  • Russia expects higher grain crop this year vs 2024
• The pace of the country’s grain exports has slowed significantly vs a year ago; flows need to rise to retain market share

 

Ukraine’s 2025 spring grain sowing 97% complete at 5.5 million hectares, minister says

Ukrainian farmers had sown 5.5 million hectares of spring grain as of May 30, or 97% of the expected area, Ukraine’s agriculture minister said on Friday.

The area included 744,400 hectares of spring barley, 217,100 hectares of spring wheat, 3.9 million hectares of corn, 212,100 hectares of peas and 158,600 hectares of oats and other cereals, Vitaliy Koval said on Telegram.

Farmers had also sown 4.73 million hectares of sunflowers, 2.23 million hectares of soybeans and 217,100 hectares of sugar beet, he added.

The ministry said that last year farmers completed spring sowing in early June, seeding 5.6 million hectares of various grains and 7.2 million hectares of oilseeds.

The first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters this month that the ministry was keeping its 2025 grain harvest forecast at 56 million metric tons despite unfavourable weather in April and early May.

Ukraine harvested 56.2 million tons of grain in 2024.

Koval told Reuters on Thursday the ministry would review the 2025 crop outlook in early June.

 

Ukraine 2025/26 wheat exports forecast to fall to 15 million tons, analyst says

Ukraine’s wheat exports are expected to fall in the 2025/26 July-June season due to possible changes in the EU’s import policy, uncertain harvest prospects and a better crop outlook in EU importing countries, analyst ASAP Agri said on Thursday.

The consultancy said exports could fall to around 15 million metric tons in 2025/26 from 16.2 million tons in 2024/25.

The government has not yet given forecasts for the 2025 wheat crop, but the ministry promises to assess the new crop in early June.

Ukraine traditionally supplies wheat to southern European countries, but the outlook for the new season is unclear due to changes in the EU trade policy expected on June 5.

The EU temporarily waived duties and quotas on Ukrainian agriculture after Russia’s full-scale invasion and these measures are due to expire on June 5.

EU diplomats said earlier this month that the bloc was weighing a return to its pre-war trade agreement with Ukraine while it negotiates a new deal with Kyiv.

The consultancy said that European buyers are not currently contracting Ukraine’s new crop wheat, which is due to come on the market in mid-summer, and contracts are being signed mainly by buyers in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Ukraine’s farm minister Vitaliy Koval said at a conference in Kyiv on Thursday that Kyiv hopes to agree new rules for agricultural exports with Brussels by the end of July.

 

India Sets Wheat Stockpile Limits for Traders to Curb Hoarding

The government imposed limits on wheat stocks held by traders and large retail chains to manage food security, curb hoarding and prevent ‘unscrupulous’ speculation.

• Traders and wholesalers can store a maximum of 3,000 tons of the grain, while retailers can keep as much as 10 tons at each outlet, the food ministry said in a statement on Thursday
• Grain processors are permitted to stock up to 70% of their monthly installed capacity, multiplied by the remaining months in the 2025-26 fiscal year
• These entities will get 15 days to bring their stockpiles within the new limits and have to declare their stock positions every Friday
• Officials will closely monitor enforcement of the limits to ensure no artificial scarcity of wheat is created, according to the statement
• The federal government has procured 29.82 million tons of wheat, which is sufficient to meet the requirement of several welfare programs and market intervention initiatives

 

Indonesia March Palm Oil Exports Rise to 2.878m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose to 2.878m tons in March from 2.8m tons in February, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output rose to 4.808m tons from 4.144m tons in February
• Palm oil stockpiles fall to 2.036m tons from 2.249m tons in February
• Palm oil domestic consumption was 2.146m tons
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption rose to 1.075m tons from 1.003m tons in February

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 735k tons in the week ending May 24 from 886k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 17% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 19.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $12.61 per short ton, an increase of $0.08 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending May 27: USDA

The following  shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending May 27, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas rose to 23% from 22% in the previous week
• Drought in soybean areas rose to 17% vs 16%
• Winter wheat crops in drought fell by 5 percentage points to 16%

 

China Steps Up Cloud Seeding to Boost Rain in Dry Wheat Regions

China has ramped up weather modification measures to bolster rainfall across parched wheat-growing areas in the north of the country, just as farmers accelerate the harvesting of their crops.

The arrival of much needed rain over China’s grain belt last week prompted authorities to coordinate operations to boost precipitation, according to the China Meteorological Administration. Provinces targeted with ground- and air-based measures include Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi.

The process includes seeding clouds with chemical compounds — whether from projectiles fired from the ground, or dispersed using planes and drones — to enhance rain and snowfall, and suppress hail. China claims to run the largest weather modification program in the world, and has increased investments in recent years as climate change heightens food security risks.

China has conducted 20% more ground-based rain enhancement operations so far this year compared with the same period in 2024, Xinhua reported this week. The operations have led to a nearly one-third increase in rainfall, the state news agency added, without providing exact figures.

Cloud seeding led to some 500 million cubic meters of additional precipitation within a week, the CMA said, without elaborating on how the agency quantifies that volume compared with what would have occurred naturally. Other provinces targeted for modification measures include Ningxia and Gansu.

“Weather modification technology is an important part of building a weather superpower,” Li Jiming, director of the Weather Modification Center, wrote in an essay this week.

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.