TOP HEADLINES
US Grain Group Urges CFTC to Reject 24/7 Ag Futures Trading
The National Grain and Feed Association opposes expanding futures exchange trading hours for agricultural commodities, arguing that a wider time frame would trigger unnecessary volatility and raise the risk for market manipulation.
- In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the group says having the futures markets open for more hours while cash markets are closed would create added risk, and that a pause in futures trading is “essential for physical deliveries” of commodities
- Separately, the National Futures Association is asking the derivatives regulator to fully review parts of the trading proposal, including use of the term “business day”
- The CFTC should also consider if its current risk disclosures are appropriate for customers, particularly retail, for 24/7 trading, NFA said in a letter to the CFTC
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 7 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal up $2.00; Soyoil down 1.46.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 1/4 in SRW, up 16 3/4 in HRW, up 25 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 15; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $4.20; Soyoil down 0.56.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 1/2 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is down 17; Soybeans up 12 3/4; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil down 0.60.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.7% in SRW, down 4.6% in HRW, up 0.5% in HRS; Corn is unchanged0.0%; Soybeans up 5.9%; Soymeal down 3.7%; Soyoil up 21.6%.
Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal up 24; Soyoil down 52; Palm oil down 72; Corn up 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 73.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 73 ringgit (-1.87%) at 3821.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 21 were: SRW Wheat down 10,082 contracts, HRW Wheat down 983, Corn up 4,587, Soybeans down 4,832, Soymeal down 1,423, Soyoil up 2,964.
DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 22 MAY 2025
- NORTH AMERICA: Cold spell with local overnight frosts in the far northern U.S. may impede spring crop sowings over the next 5 days
- SOUTH AMERICA: The latest EC Sub-seasonal forecast suggests an active rainfall pattern across Central Brazil in mid-June, but the uncertainty is high as of now
- AFRICA: Increasingly wet conditions over the next 2 weeks along the West African coast will favor the main cocoa crop flowering
- SOUTHEAST ASIA: Heavy rains will gradually retreat from key palm oil-producing regions of Indonesia, aiding flood recovery in Kalimantan
Northern Plains: A system will finally leave showers on Wednesday. It has produced widespread heavy precipitation across most of the region, which is beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought. Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend, but go on a warming trend next week.
Central/Southern Plains: Widespread showers and thunderstorms finally gave Nebraska some much-needed rainfall over the last couple of days and parts of western Kansas got some needed showers as well. Disturbances could bring additional showers for the rest of the week. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with more widespread showers. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week, which should keep stress down for those drier areas.
Midwest: A system continues to bring widespread showers through Thursday. Another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well. Widespread heavy rainfall from this system should be good for crop growth for much of the region and for building soil moisture and reducing drought in the northwest, though some that still have planting to do could be delayed, especially wet areas across the south. Cold temperatures are spreading through the region, being in place through a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern, but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.
Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front brought more showers and thunderstorms to the region on Tuesday and some additional showers may follow behind Wednesday night into Thursday. Yet another system is forecast to bring showers in over the weekend into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures will be much cooler through next week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.
Canadian Prairies: A system continues to bring scattered showers to Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba on Wednesday while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday as a system finally gives up across the region. After producing widespread rainfall this week, another favorable planting window is opening for the end of the month, which should also allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost that has been very limited this week and overall not a concern. Otherwise, temperatures will rise next wek and conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.
Brazil: A front will bounce around southern Brazil into next week, offering some potential rainfall. Those in Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state, would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers should make it into Parana as well and help filling corn in some limited fashion. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture as is usual for this time of year. Early harvest should begin over the next couple of weeks.
Argentina: A front brought deluges of rain to central portions of the country over the weekend, with significant flooding and damage occurring there. Many of these areas are still in the midst of harvest and could have seen some hits to quality and production. The front may remain active with scattered showers across the north this week. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment.
Dry weather to bring relief to Argentina’s soggy farmlands
Dry weather conditions in the coming days will help air out Argentina’s muddy fields, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, after heavy storms flooded the already behind-schedule soybean crop.
Fierce rains washed out the north of Buenos Aires province at the end of last week, with the exchange warning that it may need to cut its estimates for the soybean harvest. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.
The exchange currently pegs 2024/25 output of soy at 50 million metric tons. But with the harvest running late, farmers risk losing crops due to disease caused by the rains or pods opening.
The exchange forecasts little to no rainfall over most of Argentina’s agricultural heartland over the next several days, after up to 400 mm of precipitation was dumped on the area, the exchange said in its weekly weather report.
As fields dry out, farmers will need to rush to rake in the rest of the soybean crop. They are also set to kick off planting wheat for the 2025/26 season.
The player sheet for 5/21 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 80,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
PENDING TENDERS
- RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
TODAY
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending May 15.
- Corn est. range 1,000k – 2,000k tons, with avg of 1,481k
- Soybean est. range 250k – 700k tons, with avg of 438k
DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 2% to 24.944M Bbl
According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 25.112 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.036m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.013m
Citi Revises Forecasts for U.S. Crop Demand
Demand for U.S. corn and soybean crops may be stronger than initially anticipated, Citi Research says in a note — which is why its adjusting its outlook for supply and demand of those crops to “a more neutral view.” That’s because of stronger export demand and an improving outlook for post-tariff trade agreements. Citi says that while it expects 100 million less bushels of soybeans to be sold on the export market in 2025 versus 2024, that’s still much better than export sales were expected to be. “The risk skew has changed significantly,” says Arkady Gevorkyan of Citi in a note. For corn, Gevorkyan points to higher hopes around ethanol-blending mandates as the reason for a stronger demand outlook. Citi left its outlook for wheat unchanged.
Brazil Corn Crop in 2024-25 May Be Second Largest: Agroconsult
The country’s corn harvest may reach 140 million tons in the current season, up 9% from the previous marketing year, Agroconsult says in a statement.
- That’s slightly below Brazil’s record corn crop of 141.8 million tons in 2022-23 season
- Second corn crop, the country’s largest, to reach record 112.9 million tons, up 11% from prior marketing year
- Agroconsult estimated 109.7 million tons in March
- Rains in producing areas during April and May has helped crops and eased farmers concerns after delayed planting, André Debastiani, coordinator of Agroconsult’s Rally da Safra expedition, says in the statement
- Bird flu case confirmed in commercial flocks in Brazil raises concerns, Debastiani says
- “Oversupply, coupled with the sanitary problem, could generate negative pressure on corn prices at a time when there is little trade, requiring producers and agents in the sector to adapt their strategies”
- Farmers have sold so far only 32% of Brazil’s expected corn crop, Agroconsult says
- Agroconsult estimates domestic consumption at 96.7 million tons, exports at 42.8 million tons
India Wheat Crop Seen Hitting Record, Allaying Import Fears
India’s wheat output, which was threatened by the second-warmest February in over a century, is likely to be a bumper one this year as favorable weather during the crucial grain-filling stage improved yields.
The world’s second-biggest grower is set for a record harvest as climatic conditions were good, and there were no reports of any major damage due to hailstorms or crop diseases, said Ratan Tiwari, director of state-run Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research. The increased use of climate-resilient, high-yielding seeds further helped in improving productivity, he said.
The brighter crop prospect is prompting flour millers to ask the government to lift a ban on exports of wheat products, said Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India. It’s a change in their stance just weeks after the group sought a cut in import tax due to output concerns.
“Government granaries are full, while private trade has enough stocks,” Chitlangia said, adding that harvesting of the staple is in its last leg across the country. The government should allow exports of wheat products, he said.
India’s production is expected to hit a record 117 million tons, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts. That would help lift its end-of-season stockpiles to a four-year high, it said.
Higher production in India may potentially put pressure on global wheat prices, which have risen almost 3% so far this month. That would also help in a further reduction in the country’s food inflation.
The South Asian nation banned overseas sales of the grain in 2022 after the hottest March in more than a century that year parched fields and crimped output. In contrast, average temperatures in key growing areas this year were not too harsh for wheat plants, Tiwari said.
After the completion of wheat purchases by government agencies, the food ministry will assess the country’s requirements and discuss with other departments to examine the possibility of allowing exports, Food Minister Pralhad Joshi told reporters on Tuesday.
State-run Food Corp. of India has bought 29.6 million tons of wheat as of May 19 for the government’s welfare programs, about 14% higher than a year earlier. Total procurement from this year’s crop may climb 22% to 32.5 million tons, Joshi said.
The farm ministry estimated in March that production will rise to an all-time high of 115.43 million tons in 2024-25. The market participants were not convinced about the accuracy of the prediction as the crop was still at an early stage and weather was fluctuating. However, most of the growing areas didn’t witness any adverse weather, such as heavy rain or abnormal temperatures.
SovEcon Boosts 2025 Russian Wheat-Output Forecast to 81m Tons
SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s wheat production in the 2025-26 season by 1.2m tons to 81m tons amid improved weather conditions in recent weeks, it said in a note.
- The winter-wheat crop forecast was raised to 53.4m tons from 52.2m tons
- Spring wheat forecast remains unchanged at 27.5m tons
- Total grain production in the 2025-26 season is expected at 127.6m tons vs 125.9m tons a year earlier
- Barley production projected at 17.4m tons vs 16.7m tons year before
- Corn production projected at 14.6m tons vs 14m tons
- “Moisture reserves remain below previous years in many key regions, including Rostov, Russia’s top wheat-growing area. Our regular farmers’ survey shows persistent pessimism among many producers in the South and southern Black Earth regions”: SovEcon CEO Andrey Sizov
Russia Lowers Wheat Exports in May by 63% y/y, Interfax Says
Russia shipped 1.214m tons of wheat for export in May 1-20 period, compared with 3.319m tons in same period last year, Interfax reports, citing Russian Grain Union.
- 18 companies shipped wheat versus 77 in May 2024
- Number of ports through which transshipment took place fell to 16 from 30 in May last year
- Shipments will total just over 1.8m tons in May, which is below 2.6m tons average for the last 5 years, according to union’s estimates cited by the news service
Indonesia April Palm Oil Exports Fall 32% M/m: Intertek
Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 32% m/m in April, according to Intertek Testing Services.
- Palm oil exports fell to 1.384m tons from 2.047m tons in March
- Crude palm oil shipments fell to 46,501 tons from 101,660 tons in March
- RBD palm olein shipments fell to 544,449 tons from 810,978 tons in March
- RBD palm oil shipments fell to 273,729 tons from 453,696 tons in March
- Palm oil sales to European Union fell to 264,437 tons from 324,421 tons in March
- Palm oil sales to India fell to 243,141 tons from 497,685 tons in March
- Palm oil sales to China rose to 271,446 tons from 230,035 tons in March
Egypt Says Discussed Increasing Wheat Imports From Bulgaria
Egypt and Bulgaria discussed increasing Bulgarian wheat exports to Egypt to benefit from the advanced infrastructure of silos, Egypt’s supply ministry said in statement after meeting with Bulgarian officials.
- Meeting stressed importance of cooperation in food industries, grains, storage, and logistics sectors
- Bulgaria investors are willing to enter into partnerships and joint projects with the public and private sectors in Egypt: statement
High vegetation density across Safrinha crop belt increases Brazil corn production
2024/25 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 126.1 [122.8–129.3] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE
High vegetation density levels throughout core Safrinha crop areas of the Central West, the South, and the Southeast fractionally increases 2024/25 Brazil total corn production to 126.1 [122.8–129.3] million tons, despite declining soil moisture conditions and less than favorable short-term weather outlooks. Our current position is below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 130 million tons (released on 12 May) and the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 126.9 million tons (released on 15 May). Over the past two weeks, temperatures over the major grain and oilseed producing areas of Brazil were mostly 1-4 °C higher than normal, which was generally non-limiting for grain fill. Rainfall, however, was split, with slight surpluses of up to 20 mm in southern Brazil and continued dryness across the rest of the country. Satellite imagery continues to show healthy vegetative development in essentially every major Safrinha crop producing region. Vegetation indices across core areas of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás are all currently at near record high levels, and well above historical medians in Paraná and São Paulo. While the overall crop conditions appear to be positive at the moment with the prime growing season in full swing, persistent dry weather is slowly taking a toll on active crops, warranting attention. The overall soil moisture levels have been consistently declining since mid-April, albeit still decent, throughout virtually all second corn areas of the Central West, the South and the Southeast. There is no end in sight to dryness through early June, which could potentially start putting downward pressure on yield.
Illinois wheat crop shows promise, but disease poses risk
Production potential of the Illinois wheat crop is stronger than it was a year ago, the Illinois Wheat Association said following a one-day crop tour, but wet conditions that tend to promote crop diseases could reduce final yields.
Head scab, a fungal disease, is the main concern, said Jessica Rutkoski, a University of Illinois wheat breeder who participated in Tuesday’s tour. “Scab definitely is possible given that it has been pretty wet, especially in southern Illinois, where most of the wheat is grown. It’s kind of too early to tell,” Rutkoski said by phone on Wednesday.
The Illinois tour projected an average yield of 106 bushels per acre (bpa) after scouting 89 fields, mostly in the state’s southern third. A year ago, the same tour projected an average yield of 104 bpa based on 59 fields scouted.
Both figures are well above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s official projections. The government on May 12 forecast the 2025 Illinois wheat yield at 85 bpa, down from last year’s yield of 86 bpa. The state posted its highest-ever wheat yield in 2023, at 87 bpa, according to the USDA.
The crop tour tends to overestimate yields, Rutkoski said, because participants scout a limited number of fields. “We probably don’t sample as many of the lower-performing fields, if we wanted to be truly representative,” Rutkoski said. “But I think it tells us about the yield potential this year. That’s a pretty good average yield.”
Stable sowing progress keeps U.S. corn production afloat despite gloomy June weather outlooks
2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 398 [379–416] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE
2025/26 U.S. corn production is largely unchanged at 398 [379–416] million tons amid modest early season conditions and steady planting progress so far, though long-term weather outlooks for the summer remain rather gloomy. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 May), USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 401.8 million tons. The average of a Reuters poll of analysts’ own estimates (released on 06 May) placed national-level yield at 181.1 bushels per acre and production at 15.79 billion bushels (with a range of 15.59 to 15.99 billion bushels), compared with our median projection of 15.67 billion bushels. Our current estimate puts planted area at 94.3 million acres, up 4.1% from last season, which is 1 million acres below the USDA’s March estimate of 95.3 million acres in its Prospective Plantings report (31 March). The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in the 30 June Acreage report.
USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (19 May) put total national-level corn planting pace at 78%, well ahead of last year’s 67% and on par with the five-year average of 73%. The past two weeks brought mostly high temperatures and widespread precipitation throughout the Northern Plains, while continued dryness dominated the rest of the Corn Belt including the core producing areas of the “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana). The long awaited above average rainfall events that actively took place in the Dakotas over the past 10 days were especially meaningful and greatly improved soil moisture conditions there, which otherwise would have continued to suffer from a severe lack of moisture. Much of the Upper Midwest missed out on early May’s round of precipitation however, largely remain dry, mounting concerns despite seemingly decent sowing progress so far. As such, the biggest risk factor this season continues to lie in the status of soil moisture throughout the central Corn Belt, which has been hovering around at least 6-year lows since February. The top corn producers Iowa and Illinois in particular, are currently showing alarmingly low soil moisture levels, warranting attention. The latest ENSO outlook by LSEG Weather Research team suggests that key forecast indicators consistently point towards increased heat and dryness risks in the central/western Corn Belt during the crop’s prime growth period from June through August, which warrants close monitoring.
U.S. soybean production remains steady but dismal summer weather may loom soon
2025/26 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 117 [109–122] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE
2025/26 U.S. soybean production is largely unchanged at 117 [109–122] million tons amid modest early season conditions and steady planting progress so far, though long-term weather outlooks for the summer remain rather gloomy. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 May), USDA pegged U.S. soy production at 118.1 million tons. The average of a Reuters poll of analysts’ own estimates (released on 06 May) placed national-level yield at 52.5 bushels per acre and production at 4.34 billion bushels (with a range of 4.30 to 4.40 billion bushels), compared with our median projection of 4.31 billion bushels. Our current estimate puts planted area at 84 million acres, down 3.4% from last season, which is 0.5 million acres above the USDA’s March estimate of 83.5 million acres in its Prospective Plantings report (31 March). The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in the 30 June Acreage report.
USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (19 May) put total national-level soybean planting pace at 66%, well ahead of last year’s 50% and the five-year average of 53%. The past two weeks brought mostly high temperatures and widespread precipitation throughout the Northern Plains, while continued dryness dominated the rest of the Soy Belt including the core producing areas of the “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana). The long awaited above average rainfall events that actively took place in the Dakotas over the past 10 days were especially meaningful and greatly improved soil moisture conditions there, which otherwise would have continued to suffer from a severe lack of moisture. Much of the Upper Midwest missed out on early May’s round of precipitation however, largely remain dry, mounting concerns despite seemingly rapid sowing progress so far. As such, the biggest risk factor this season continues to lie in the status of soil moisture throughout the central Soy Belt, which has been hovering around at least 6-year lows since February. The top soybean producers Illinois and Iowa in particular, are currently showing alarmingly low soil moisture levels, warranting attention. The latest ENSO outlook by LSEG Weather Research team suggests that key forecast indicators consistently point towards increased heat and dryness risks in the central/western Soy Belt during the crop’s prime growth period from June through August, which warrants close monitoring.
Brazil state Tocantins rules out bird flu in commercial flock
Santa Catarina commercial farm case remains under investigation for bird flu
Meat lobby seeks permission to use more cold storage space at ports
WOAH recommends disease controls on only affected regions to allow trade
Preliminary tests indicate a commercial chicken farm in Brazil’s state of Tocantins is free from bird flu, the state’s farm agency said on Wednesday, a reassuring result following confirmation of Brazil’s first such outbreak.
The initial test results are a boon to the world’s top chicken exporter, which is reeling from regional and countrywide trade embargoes after bird flu was found on a commercial farm in the country’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul.
On Wednesday, meat lobby ABPA, which represents global food processors including JBS SA and BRF SA, requested the government’s permission to expand use of cold storage capacity at ports as a way to mitigate the impact of the current trade disruptions.
A chicken farm in Tocantins state and another in Santa Catarina state reported suspect bird flu contamination after confirmation of that first outbreak last Friday. Both remain listed as “under investigation” on the Agriculture Ministry’s website.
“Even with this reassuring initial result, the agriculture ministry continues to carry out additional tests,” said Adapec, as the Tocantins farm agency is known.
Santa Catarina did not reply to requests for comment.
The World Organisation for Animal Health on Wednesday encouraged the use of zoning, a method focusing disease controls on affected regions rather than the entire country, to contain the spread of bird flu in Brazil and enable international trade.
Under WOAH rules, if a country detects a bird flu outbreak in one region, it can declare that region a disease control zone and maintain disease-free status – and trade – from other zones that are unaffected.
Adapec said authorities started the investigation on a local commercial chicken farm after seven animals, out of about 40,000, presented “torticollis” symptoms, the statement said.
The agency said samples were taken from the animals and sent to a federal laboratory in Sao Paulo state immediately.
The Tocantins tests have indicated low pathogenicity, or mild, influenza A. The samples tested negative for highly pathogenic avian influenza – the type of bird flu that had been spreading across U.S. dairy and poultry farms – and for Newcastle Disease, which are the most worrying diseases in birds, local authorities said.
Zoning was used by the United States after it discovered bird flu outbreaks on farms, with countries like Canada, Mexico and the European Union permitting imports from disease-free regions within the U.S.
“This is particularly relevant because Brazil is a huge country. As long as a country can guarantee that it is complying with the rules, what is happening on one side of the country may have no impact on the other side,” WOAH Director General Emmanuelle Soubeyran told Reuters in an interview.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER COULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IN JUNE
What to Watch:
Warmth likely across the majority of South America next month
Dry conditions likely across most regions next month, barring northwest parts of Brazil
US Grain Group Urges CFTC to Reject 24/7 Ag Futures Trading
The National Grain and Feed Association opposes expanding futures exchange trading hours for agricultural commodities, arguing that a wider time frame would trigger unnecessary volatility and raise the risk for market manipulation.
- In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the group says having the futures markets open for more hours while cash markets are closed would create added risk, and that a pause in futures trading is “essential for physical deliveries” of commodities
- Separately, the National Futures Association is asking the derivatives regulator to fully review parts of the trading proposal, including use of the term “business day”
- The CFTC should also consider if its current risk disclosures are appropriate for customers, particularly retail, for 24/7 trading, NFA said in a letter to the CFTC
US Milk Production Rose 1.6% Y/y in April, USDA Says
Agency releases report on website.
- Output for the 24 major-producing states was 18.6b lbs, 296m more than in April of last year
- Milk per cow averaged 2,071 lbs, a 0.6% increase from last year
- Estimated output for all the US rose 1.5% y/y to 19.37b lbs
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