Global Ag News For March 3.2026

TOP HEADLINES

DOJ Probes US Fertilizer Market for Possible Price Fixing

The Justice Department has been investigating whether several leading producers of commercial fertilizers colluded to raise prices, according to people familiar with the matter.

The companies whose conduct is under scrutiny include phosphate and potash suppliers Nutrien Ltd. and Mosaic Co., as well as CF Industries Holdings Inc., Koch Inc. and Norway’s Yara International ASA, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing a confidential investigation. CF Industries, Koch, Yara and Nutrien control most of the nitrogen-based fertilizer sold in the US.

The probe is examining companies’ pricing practices for possible civil and criminal antitrust violations, the people said. The investigation is in the early stages and is being run out of the DOJ antitrust division’s Chicago office, they said.

Only a handful of companies control the supply of most fertilizer in the US, which has raised concern among farmers and government officials. The Biden administration also expressed concerns about high fertilizer prices due to market concentration and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

The companies haven’t been accused of wrongdoing by antitrust officials, and investigations don’t necessarily lead to charges or lawsuits.

Nutrien didn’t have an immediate comment. The other companies and the Justice Department didn’t respond to requests for comment. A US Department of Agriculture spokesperson referred to DOJ for comment.

Mosaic shares fell as much as 4.3% to the lowest price since mid-January. CF Industries dropped as much as 5.5%, the most since November, while Nutrien shares were down as much as 2.9%.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 8 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil up 0.54.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 16 1/4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal down $10.70; Soyoil up 2.05.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 11.8% in SRW, up 10.3% in HRW, up 5.2% in HRS; Corn is down 1.9%; Soybeans up 12.7%; Soymeal up 3.7%; Soyoil up 32.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil down 24; Palm oil down 14; Corn up 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 28.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 28 ringgit (+0.67%) at 4207.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 449 Corn; 482 Soybeans; 1,236 Soyoil; 179 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 4 were: SRW Wheat up 3,401 contracts, HRW Wheat down 20, Corn down 5,260, Soybeans up 4,838, Soymeal up 2,332, Soyoil up 6,137.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 05 MARCH 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: The upcoming wet weather pattern over the Southern US and Midwest will be very favorable for wheat development and spring crops ahead of the season
• SOUTH AMERICA: The arrival of rains in western Pampas will benefit late developing corn at critical yield formation stages, though may disrupt early harvests
• AFRICA: A trend to dry conditions is expected through mid-March across key cocoa areas of Western Africa, which should support early mid-crop harvests
• AUSTRALIA: Tropical Cyclone 24 will weaken before making landfall in Queensland over the next 2 days, but heavy rains will be affecting all coastal areas until the next week
• TELECONNECTIONS: Possible weakening of +AO (Arctic Oscillation) late next week may increase chances of cold outbreaks across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in late March

 

Brazil: Rain continues over northern areas, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south. However, the country needs the consistent rains to return as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Most of the southern half of the country is drier this week, but showers should start to fill back in this weekend, and spread through central Brazil as well. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season.

Argentina: Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. A front moved through on Monday and Tuesday with limited precipitation. Another front will move through Wednesday and Thursday, but will favor northern, less productive areas over the more fertile areas in the south and east that have had larger issues with dryness this season. Showers will linger across the north through the weekend before becoming drier next week. Temperatures are cooler this week, limiting overall stress.

Northern Plains: A system should bring a mix of rain and snow to the southeast on Thursday night and Friday, which may result in some accumulating snow in Wyoming and South Dakota. Another large system is forecast for next Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow, and there could be another one like it later next week. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but will fall behind the Tuesday system.

Central/Southern Plains: Soil moisture is generally low across most of the region, despite little drought designation across Colorado and Kansas. The region is getting very busy, however, with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Eastern areas are favored, which could result in flooding and severe weather. If it indeed stays drier in the west, drought could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy. A system in the middle of next week also favors eastern areas with precipitation and possible severe weather.

Midwest: Drought remains a problem in the region prior to spring planting. Warmer temperatures are moving in and multiple waves of showers will lead to widespread rain throughout the week and weekend. Improvement to drought and dryness is expected, though some areas have large deficits to overcome. A couple of stronger systems are looking likely for next week as well.

Delta: Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain will move through the Plains and Midwest, aiding the rivers, but precipitation will be limited until a front moves through this weekend. The heaviest precipitation may come through with a system in the middle of next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region, but deficits are very large in some areas.

 

The player sheet for 3/4 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 125,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley on Wednesday in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons, European traders said. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 125,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and 50,000 tons of durum wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. Of the total, about 33,300 tons should be sourced from the United States, about 22,200 tons from China and the rest from Australia, Vietnam and Thailand. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is March 11.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 13.

 

 

 

TODAY

US CROP EXPORTS: 125,000 Tons of Corn to Unknown Buyers

The US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday announces export sales activity on its website:

• Sale is for the 2025-26 marketing year
  • This brings total announced sales of corn to 321,000 tons this week

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Feb. 26.

• Corn est. range 700k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,450k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 1,000k tons, with avg of 500k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.7% to 26.337M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.682 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.095m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.107m

 

Argentina’s corn production remains at risk due to ongoing drought in Southeast

2025/26 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 56.2 [52.3–61.0] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Improved weather conditions have slightly increased Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production estimate to 56.2 million tons. However, drought risks persist in the southern and eastern Pampas regions.

After decent rainfall in early February, Argentina’s main corn-growing regions have mostly turned dry again over the past two weeks, except for most of Cordoba and Santa Fe, which received above-average rain that helped late-planted corn recover from earlier drought. Weather forecasts show the dry spell is likely to persist across southern and eastern Argentina, along with cooler than usual temperatures. Meanwhile, areas in the north and west—like Cordoba, Chaco, Santiago del Estero, San Luis, and La Pampas—could get normal or higher-than-average rainfall. If it verifies, the ongoing lack of rain would worsen soil moisture deficits and lower yield prospects for late corn in Buenos Aires. In contrast, expected rains should keep improving corn conditions in Cordoba, northern Santa Fe, and regions further north and west. Offsetting yield updates have resulted in a production increase of 487,000 tons from the last update.

 

Persistent warm and dry weather in southern Brazil slightly reduced Brazil corn production outlook

2025/26 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 139.9 [133.1–145.2] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Brazil’s 25/26 corn production was lowered slightly to 139.9 million tons amid ongoing warm and dry weather in the southern and southwestern portions of Brazil.

First-corn harvesting is progressing in the South, with 24.9% completed nationwide as of February 28, nearly matching last year’s 25.3%. Southern Brazil’s harvest is generally on track except for Santa Catarina, where 28% is finished versus 36% last year. Precipitation deficits since January have had less effect on first-corn than soybeans, as first-corn was almost mature at that time; In the Southeast, Northwest, and Central-West regions (such as Goiás), first-crop corn is currently in the important pollination or grain-filling stages, and recent rainfall has kept crop conditions favorable.

Second-corn planting is behind schedule nationally at 64.9% complete, down from 69.1% in 2025. Mato Grosso leads with 85.6% planted as of February 28, up from last year’s 81.7%. Planting is delayed in Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Parana due to irregular rainfall. Recent warm, dry conditions in the South and Southwest are increasing risks to planting and yields in regions including Parana, southern/eastern Goiás, southern/western Minas Gerais, and, to a lesser extent, Mato Grosso do Sul. Weather forecasts predict above-average precipitation for most of Brazil except southern areas like Parana, which may accelerate corn planting and improve crop development in Goiás, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul, if realized.

 

Ukraine Says Russia Attacked Ship With Corn in Black Sea: RBC

A Russian drone hit a Panama-flagged civilian vessel in the Black Sea on the evening of March 4 as it was leaving the port of Chornomorsk, according to Odesa regional authorities, cited by RBC.

• The ship was carrying corn; some crew were injured and were assisted and evacuated

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 16.1 million metric tons in March

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 16.1 MILLION METRIC TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 15.7 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING ABOUT 697,000 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 474,165 TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL EXPORTED 8.9 MILLION TONS OF SOY IN FEBRUARY, MISSING ITS PROJECTION BY OVER 1 MILLION TONS DUE TO RAINS – ANEC

 

China eyes 725 million ton grain capacity in five-year push

• China targets grain production capacity of 725 mln metric tons by 2030
• Policy focus on raising per-unit crop yields as farmland expansion limited
• China bets on breakthrough crop varieties, soil protection to lift yields

China aims to boost grain production capacity to 725 million metric tons over 2026-2030, prioritizing yield gains through technology, soil protection and seed innovation rather than farmland expansion, government reports said on Thursday.

The strategy, announced on Thursday in the new five-year plan and annual reports to parliament, comes as resource security moves into focus after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Huge quantities of the world’s oil and fertilisers flow through the strait, much of it to China.

“The focus on per-unit yield increases is particularly important. China has limited scope to expand farmland or irrigation resources, so any meaningful increase in capacity has to come from productivity gains rather than acreage expansion,” said Matthew Nicol, a China agriculture policy analyst.

The reports said authorities will raise per-unit yields of grain and oil crops on large tracts of farmland, maintain stable rice and wheat production, and expand corn and soybean capacity.

With limited land and water resources, China will need to sharply increase farm productivity through technology, including investment in machinery and seed innovation, to meet long-term food security goals.

Despite last year’s record grain output of 715 million metric tons, China remains heavily reliant on imports of agricultural products such as soybeans. The United States, a geopolitical rival, is also its second-largest supplier.

China’s latest plan also says it establishes “stable and controllable overseas supply channels”, diversifies agricultural imports and promotes synthetic biology and new protein sources to reduce import dependence, among other things.

In April last year, China announced a plan to lower soymeal content in animal rations to 10% by 2030 amid the ongoing trade war with the U.S.

 

Ukrainian export prices for 2026 rapeseed crop seen rising on weather problems, union says

Export forward prices for Ukraine’s 2026 rapeseed harvest could rise to $540-$545 per metric ton including transport costs for July-August delivery, against $530-$540 per ton a week earlier, major farmers’ union UAC said on Wednesday.

Ukraine, a large European rapeseed grower and exporter, harvested around 3.7 million tons of rapeseed in 2024. The harvest fell to 3.3 million tons in 2025, mostly due to unfavourable weather.

“There is a possibility that up to 10% of the area (under rapeseed) may be resown (due to unfavourable weather in winter), and we may have not a lot of rapeseed,” UAC said in a weekly report.

Winter rapeseed traditionally forms the bulk of Ukraine’s rapeseed output. It is sown in autumn and harvested in spring the following year.

Scientists from the Ukrainian National Academy of Agrarian Sciences said on Monday that up to 20% of crops in some fields might be lost due to severe frost in February.

Temperatures dropped to as low as minus 28 degrees Celsius (minus 18.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas last month.

Rapeseed, mostly exported at the beginning of the season in autumn and early winter, is currently selling at $565 per metric ton CPT (carriage paid to) Black Sea.

Consultancy APK-Inform said it had revised down its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 rapeseed harvest to 3.7 million tons from 3.9 million tons a month earlier.

 

Ukraine’s Corn Harvest Seen 6% Lower in 2026: SovEcon

Ukraine’s 2026 corn production is seen at 29.9 million tons this year, about 6% lower from a year earlier, consultancy SovEcon said by email.

• Cites a reduction in plantings as farmers switch some part of their land to more-profitable oilseeds
  • Area is estimated at 4.3 million ha, down from 4.6 million ha in 2025
• Ukraine’s wheat crop estimate unchanged at 24.6 million tons
  • Good snow cover likely protected the crop from cold snap damage

 

Ukraine increases grain shipments to ports by 5.5% in February, railway says

Ukraine increased grain shipments to its Black Sea ports for subsequent export by 5.5% in February year-on-year to 2.3 million metric tons, despite ongoing Russian attacks on transport infrastructure, state railways said on Thursday.

Ukraine ships about 90% of its exports via the Black Sea’s Odesa port hub.

“In February, we saw an increase in shipments, but we were hampered by weather conditions and attacks on port infrastructure,” state-run Ukrzalizhytsia railway company said in a report.

Ukrainian farm lobby UCAB said this week that the country’s grain exports rose by 1% in February from January to 3.4 million metric tons, with corn dominating the exported volume.

Data from Ukrainian economy ministry showed that the country exported 22.3 million tons of various grains so far in the 2025/26 July to June season as of March 2, versus 29.6 million a season earlier.

 

USDA’s FAS expects Kazakhstan to produce 18mn tonnes of wheat in 2025-26 marketing year

Kazakhstan is expected to produce 18mn tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year, while wheat exports could approach last year’s historic high of 10.19mn tonnes, World Grain reported on March 4, citing projections by the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

The agency forecast Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest at 18mn tonnes, roughly 900,000 tonnes lower than its previous projection and about 500,000 tonnes below the record crop gathered a year earlier, the trade journal’s report said. The FAS noted that Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics estimated output could reach 19.3mn tonnes but said that figure appeared “overstated based on observed yields in the field.”

Analysts attributed the expected decline primarily to a shift in planting decisions by farmers, who have reduced wheat acreage in favor of more profitable oilseed crops, particularly sunflower and rapeseed, the report added.

“The impact on production from this contraction in area was partially offset by improved yields resulting from favorable weather conditions during most of the growing and harvesting seasons,” the FAS reportedly said.

Despite the lower harvest forecast, the agency raised its estimate for wheat exports by 300,000 tonnes to 10mn tonnes. Export performance has been supported by government transport subsidies and ongoing efforts by grain traders to diversify overseas markets.

 

Iran war threatens Asia fertiliser supplies ahead of planting season

• Gulf war disrupts fertiliser supplies, shipping routes
• Asian buyers face supply pressure before planting season
• India’s deals to import 1.3 mln tons of urea at risk
• Urea prices jump as global fertiliser supply tightens

Escalating war in the Middle East has shut down fertiliser plants in the region and severely disrupted shipping routes, potentially curbing supplies to key Asian importers just as farmers gear up for their major cereal planting season.

The world’s most populous countries, India and China, as well as key farm product exporters Australia and Indonesia could face pressure on supplies of plant nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, traders and importers said.

Shipments from the Middle East are likely to drop not only because transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for about one-third of global trade for the nutrients, has all but stopped, but also due to cuts in production.

Qatar Energy has had to stop production at the world’s largest single-site urea plant, as it lost its source of natural gas feedstock after the company shut down gas output due to attacks on its LNG facilities.

At the same time, sulphur output has been cut in other parts of the Middle East.

“Since the conflict started the world has effectively lost three of its largest urea exporters and it has lost three of its largest anhydrous exporters – Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia,” said fertiliser analyst Josh Linville of StoneX.

“We have lost a significant chunk of the global supply because of this situation.”

Linville said India recently concluded a deal to buy 1.3 million tons of urea, with some of that supply likely to be sourced from the Middle East. “There is a risk of these supplies not reaching India on time.”

India buys more than 40% of its urea and phosphatic fertilisers from the Middle East. While imports could be hit, output within India has already been affected.

Three Indian plants have been forced to reduce urea output as LNG supplies from Qatar have dropped sharply, said a New Delhi-based senior industry official. As a result, supply is expected to be tight for urea and diammonium phosphate in the short term, the person said.

“The key assumption here is that this stays short-lived,” said Matthew Biggin, senior commodities analyst at BMI. “If it does, India could look to increased imports from Russia for finished fertilisers to bridge any supply gaps. Domestic production should pick back up once natural gas prices retreat.”

FERTILISER MARKET WAS TIGHT BEFORE IRAN WAR

The global fertiliser market was already tight, with China restricting exports this year to ensure domestic availability, while producers in Europe have cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas supply, analysts said.

Urea prices have risen by around $80 per ton from around $470 per ton quoted before the start of the Iran war, they said.

China is likely to expand fertiliser export controls because of the conflict, two agricultural analysts said, although the restrictions may not be formally announced and instead communicated to major producers and customs.

“It’s near certain that China’s government will adopt or expand export limits on fertilisers as a result of this conflict,” said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

While China sources more than 50% of its sulphur imports from the Middle East, Indonesia relies on the region for nearly 70% of its supplies, traders said. Sulphur is a key ingredient for phosphate fertilisers like diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate.

“It is really hard to find readily available spot cargoes now. There are no spot cargoes anywhere,” said one Chinese sulphur trader.

Australia is almost entirely dependent on imports to meet its fertiliser needs.

“Australia currently requires fertiliser for wheat and other crop applications,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an analyst at Sydney’s Commonwealth Bank.

“Given its time proximity to planting, many large importers would likely have brought in large volumes already, though not all of their requirements would have been covered for the year.”

 

Russia to Auction Nationalized Grain Trader: IFX

Russia to auction nationalized grain trader Rodnie Polya, starting price set at RUB 11.7b ($150m), Interfax reports, citing auction organizer.

• NOTE: May 7, Russia Puts Nationalized Grain Trader Under RSHB Management: IFX

 

Ethanol firm Inpasa’s new advisory board to focus on growth, member says

Corn ethanol producer Inpasa’s new advisory board will focus on helping the company pursue growth strategies, including possible international expansion, inaugural board member Jose Olympio Pereira told Reuters on Wednesday.

Corn ethanol output has exploded in Brazil in recent years and has made impressive gains on territory long held by the country’s sugarcane producers, with producers like Inpasa – which has plants in Paraguay and Brazil – expanding at a rapid pace.

Pereira, the former CEO of Banco J. Safra, the investment banking arm of Safra Group in Brazil, has “always been” a fan of Inpasa, he told Reuters, citing the company’s rapid growth from “zero” to seeing revenue of almost 23 billion reais ($4.4 billion) and profit of close to 5 billion reais in 2025.

The role of the new advisory board will be to assess future growth options, Pereira said.

“The board is precisely for helping the company think about its strategic alternatives going forward,” he said.

Growth opportunities could include international expansion, said Pereira, who sees his role as one of keeping in contact with investors, raising the company’s profile in international capital markets, and contributing to Inpasa’s institutional relations.

“What else can be done, where else it can expand, how it can expand internationally or not – in short, there are many challenges and opportunities that the board will help the company consider,” he said.

Inpasa founder and Chairman Jose Odvar Lopes welcomed Pereira in a statement on Tuesday, adding that the advisory board represented a new milestone in the company’s maturity.

Inpasa currently boasts two plants in Paraguay and five plants in Brazil, where it also has three other sites under construction.

 

 

 

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