Global Ag News For March 3.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Some fertilizer prices rise as Iran conflict escalates

Some fertilizer prices surged following the impact of the escalating Middle East conflict on supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts told Reuters on Monday.

The price of urea, a dry nitrogen crop fertilizer generally made from natural gas, jumped as much as 13% to $550 from $485-$490 per tonne in Egypt, a urea producer, said Chris Lawson of metals consultancy CRU Group.

“Expect further increases,” he said.

The price jump was also reflected in imports to North America, said analyst Josh Linville of StoneX, rising about $77 to $606 at the port area around New Orleans.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran, three of the world’s top 10 urea exporters, ship through the Strait of Hormuz, supplying a global market already struggling with tight supplies due to the lack of available cheap natural gas from Russia to European manufacturers, Linville said.

“The world is already struggling with nitrogen and just took a massive, massive hit at the worst time of the year,” he added.

Farmers in central North America can still receive urea shipped from the Persian Gulf today, but the two-month time from loading to arrival in the Midwest means any lengthy closure of the strait will make delayed fertilizer too late for farmers to use this planting season, Linville said.

If prices rise further, it could become unaffordable for farmers, many of whom were already projecting losses on this year’s crop.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 9 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans up 18 1/4; Soymeal up $2.90; Soyoil up 0.91.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 11 1/2; Soymeal down $4.70; Soyoil up 1.80.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 13.3% in SRW, up 10.2% in HRW, up 4.1% in HRS; Corn is down 0.4%; Soybeans up 12.7%; Soymeal up 5.8%; Soyoil up 30.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 75 yuan; Soymeal up 20; Soyoil up 78; Palm oil up 130; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 39.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 39 ringgit (+0.94%) at 4186.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 449 Corn; 258 Soybeans; 1,244 Soyoil; 186 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 2 were: SRW Wheat down 2,709 contracts, HRW Wheat down 729, Corn down 14,119, Soybeans up 10,704, Soymeal up 3,568, Soyoil up 8,634.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 03 MARCH 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Soil moisture is low in Southern U.S. Plains wheat areas, but high rainfall is likely to arrive over the next 10 days
• SOUTH AMERICA: A cold front will spread over the Pampas in the coming days, lowering temperatures and bringing heavy rains to the northern crop areas
• EAST ASIA: The arrival of warm/wet conditions in China through mid-March will be favorable for winter wheat development
• SOUTH ASIA: Hot and dry weather over the next 2 weeks in India will negatively affect wheat crop at late development stage
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden-Julian Oscillation is likely to linger near phase 6 through March, supporting wet conditions in southern and eastern China

 

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BRAZIL AND PAMPAS CORN/SOYBEAN REGIONS

• Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate
• Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day  timeframe: EC Ens
• Forecast confidence: High through the next 10 days; Low in 11-15-days
• Model Change (from previous update):  Drier in South Brazil

 

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers north through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.  

Northern Plains:  Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.  

Midwest – West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially south. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

Midwest – East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 3/2 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 13,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia’s main state buying agency, the General Food Security Authority, on Monday purchased around 794,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender, it said. This was above the 655,000 tons sought. The wheat was bought for arrival in Saudi Arabia between May and July, the agency said.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal late on Friday in addition to a previous purchase earlier in the day of 135,000 tons in an international tender, European traders said on Tuesday.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. Of the total, about 33,300 tons should be sourced from the United States, about 22,200 tons from China and the rest from Australia, Vietnam and Thailand. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is March 11.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 3.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is March 4.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 13.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 461M Bu in January

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 1.49% lower than in January 2025
• In total, mills consumed 505m bu of corn in January, a 1.8% decline over last year
• DDGS production fell to 1.778m tons

 

US Soybean Crushings at 227.9M Bushels in January: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 7.2% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 3.9% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 33.9% y/y

 

US Inspected 1.859m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.138m of Soybeans

In week ending Feb. 26, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 1,138k tons vs 682k the previous wk, 702k a yr ago
• Wheat: 344k tons vs 563k the previous wk, 391k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,859k tons vs 2,020k the previous wk, 1,353k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Feb. 26

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Feb. 26 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 735k tons of the 1.14m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soy Harvest 39% Done as of Feb. 26: Agrural

Compares with 30% a week earlier and 50% a year before, consultancy firm AgRural says in emailed report.

• Rain has once again hampered the soybean harvest in several parts of Brazil, which remains the slowest in five years
• Winter corn seeding is at 66% in the Center-South region, compared to 50% a week before and 80% in the same period last year
  • “Despite producers doing their best to accelerate the planting of the 2026 second corn crop and avoid sowing too much outside the ideal window, rain and the delay in the soybean harvest are hindering the progress of planters in several areas,” AgRural says
  • Index is the lowest for this date since 2022
• 2025/26 corn harvest is 36% complete in the Center-South, versus 28% a week earlier and 46% a year before

 

Brazil 2025/26 C-S Summer Corn Output Seen at 25.53M T: Safras

Expected summer corn production would exceed the previous year’s 24.73 million metric tons and higher than previous estimate of 25.37 million, according to an emailed statement from consultancy Safras & Mercado.

• Total national corn production has potential to reach 141.71 million tons in the 2025/26 season, compared to the previously forecast 142.88 million tons, and higher than the 140.05 for the 2024/25 harvest: Safras

 

AgRural, StoneX trim forecasts for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop

Consultancies AgRural and StoneX on Monday trimmed their forecasts for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean output, as yield losses caused by adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul state weigh on overall production.

AGRURAL

• AgRural estimated the country’s 2025/26 soybean output at 178 million metric tons, lowering its forecast from 181 million tons, citing drought-related yields losses in Rio Grande do Sul.
• Those losses were “partially offset by higher yields in other states, especially Mato Grosso,” the consultancy added.
• Brazilian farmers had harvested 39% of their soy crop as of last Thursday, AgRural said, up 9 percentage points from the previous week but lagging the 50% reported a year earlier.
• The harvest pace remains the slowest since 2020/21, it said.

STONEX

• StoneX expects Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean output to reach 177.8 million tons, 2.1% less than previously estimated.
• Despite the downward revision, the new forecast still points to a record crop, the firm said.
• “Weather issues have caused some damage to crops, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where rains arrived late and were quite irregular,” said StoneX market intelligence specialist Ana Luiza Lodi.
• Further revisions may occur in the coming weeks, as the soybean cycle in Rio Grande do Sul runs later than in other states, StoneX added.

 

Black Sea’s Novorossiysk port suspended loadings after a major Ukrainian drone attack

• Ukraine says drones hit Sheskharis oil terminal and Russian warships
• State of emergency declared in Novorossiysk
• Mayor reports damage to residential blocks and kindergartens

Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal suspended oil loadings on Monday following a Ukrainian drone attack that injured five, damaged 20 buildings and set a fuel terminal on fire, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials and three trade sources.

The Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk is Russia’s major oil outlet in the Black Sea, loading 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil. The suspension of exports from the port is a hit to Russia’s already strained infrastructure.

An official at Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, said Ukrainian drones had struck the Sheskharis oil terminal at the port, hitting six of its seven loading facilities, and that the drones also struck Russian warships. Ukraine’s General Staff said the drones also struck a naval base, along with an S-400 surface-to-air missile defence system.

Russia, which restricts information about attacks on its military, made no mention of any damage to its military assets. Reuters could not independently verify what Ukraine had struck.

The Russian Defence Ministry said it had downed 172 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 67 over the Black Sea and 66 over the Krasnodar region, where Novorossiysk is located.

There were no tankers loading at the Sheskharis oil terminal during the attack, the sources said. The loadings were suspended in advance and the vessels returned to sea amid a drone attack alert, they added.

One of the sources said that some administrative buildings at the Sheskharis oil terminal were damaged as well as bunker storage and loading facilities and some berths, but didn’t provide further details on the damage.

Local authorities in southern Russia said that a fuel terminal at the port had caught fire overnight. They said the blaze had been put out and made no mention of how it had ignited, though officials confirmed the Ukrainian attack.

“All night long, our military repelled a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. The strongest strike hit Novorossiysk, where a state of emergency was declared,” said Veniamin Kondratyev, governor of the Krasnodar region.

Andrei Kravchenko, the mayor of Novorossiysk, posted images of some of the damage on his Telegram channel and said preliminary information suggested that eight residential tower blocks had been damaged along with nine private houses and three kindergartens.

Five people were being treated in hospital, he said.

The nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal also suspended operations early on Monday amid the alert and resumed operations around midday Moscow time, one of the sources added. Ukrainian drones did not hit the terminal on Monday.

Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said on Monday that the latest attack had not affected its oil production and that both output and exports continued as normal.

 

Malaysia’s February palm oil stocks seen at four-month low as output drops

• February stocks likely to decline 6.52% to 2.63 mln MT – poll
• Output forecast to drop 17.8% lower to 1.3 million MT
• Exports projected to slip 20.8% to 1.18 mln MT
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due on March 10

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are expected to fall for a second consecutive month in February, reaching a four-month low, as seasonal output declines outweighed slower exports, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.

Stockpiles are projected at 2.63 million metric tons, down 6.52% from January, according to a median estimate of 10 traders, planters, and analysts polled by Reuters, marking their lowest point since last November.

Crude palm oil production is forecast at 1.3 million metric tons in February, down 17.8% from the prior month and marking a fourth consecutive monthly drop. Despite the drop, production would still represent the highest February output since 2019.

The drop in output is primarily due to seasonal trends combined with February being a shorter month, said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari.

“Exports have declined due to multiple uncertainties, particularly regarding the strength of the ringgit and competition from Indonesia. We see stockpiles dropping marginally because of these factors but the black swan factor could be the imports,” Supramaniam said.

“Imports are expected to rise significantly in February.”

Exports of palm oil products are projected to fall by 20.8% to 1.18 million metric tons, snapping two consecutive months of gains, according to the survey. MYPOME-PO

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release its monthly data on March 10.

 

India’s February palm oil imports jump 10% to six-month high

India’s palm oil imports rose 10.1% in February to a six-month high, as its widening discount to rival oils prompted refiners to ramp up purchases and cut imports of sunflower oil, according to five dealers.

India’s increased imports of palm oil and soyoil could reduce stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, boosting Malaysian palm oil and U.S. soyoil futures.

Palm oil imports rose to 844,000 metric tons last month, the highest since August 2025, up from 766,384 tons in January, according to dealer estimates.

Meanwhile, soyoil imports climbed 8.7% in February from the previous month’s 19-month low to 303,000 tons, while sunflower oil shipments plunged 45.3% to 146,000 tons.

India’s total edible oil imports in February fell 1.4% from a month earlier to 1.29 million tons due to a sharp drop in sunflower oil purchases, estimates showed.

The estimates exclude duty-free shipments that arrived via land borders from Nepal, the dealers said.

India is estimated to have imported 70,000 tonnes of edible oils, mainly soyoil, from Nepal via the land border in February, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at edible oil trader GGN Research at Rajkot, Gujarat.

The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India is set to publish its February import data by mid-March.

“Palm oil imports rose as it was cheaper than rival oils, and now temperatures are also rising. Refiners have started to build stocks,” said Aashish Acharya, vice-president at Patanjali Foods Ltd PAFO.NS, a leading importer of edible oils.

India’s palm oil imports typically moderate during the winter months, as the tropical oil solidifies at lower temperatures, limiting its use in northern parts of the country.

Palm oil imports are set to rise further in March, after traders rushed to place orders in recent weeks when it was significantly cheaper than soyoil, Acharya said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

 

Australia Raises 2025-26 Grain and Oilseed Crop Forecasts

Australia will produce nearly 36 million tons of wheat this year, the country’s third-largest harvest of the grain on record, according to the Department of Agriculture’s March crop report released on Tuesday.

• Total grain and oilseed production will be 68.4 million tons, the second-largest result on record: Report
  • That’s two million tons higher than expected in the December report
  • Wheat harvest also beat December’s forecast
• Barley and canola are estimated to be 16.3 million tons and 7.7 million tons respectively
• The Department of Agriculture’s March report is its final tally of the current season
  • The June release will forecast the 2026/27 output
• NOTE: Australia is one of the world’s largest grain exporters, selling to markets including the Middle East, Southeast Asia and China.
• Despite challenging weather conditions, the year’s positive outcome reflects improved farming practices: Report

 

Australia Confirms China Cleared First Trial Canola Cargo

Australia’s government has confirmed that the first trial cargo of canola cleared Chinese customs in late January as part of its March quarter Agricultural Commodities Report, bringing the lucrative trade one step closer to restarting.

• Bloomberg had previously reported that the first shipment had been cleared by Chinese authorities, after it was screened for excess amounts of the blackleg fungus
• In its report, the government said that a second trial canola shipment arrived in China shortly after the first
• “Renewed access to China presents an opportunity for Australia’s canola sector, with any increase in export demand likely to be supportive of prices. Higher prices would encourage growers to increase area planted to canola provided appropriate seasonal conditions,” the quarterly report said
• Australia is the world’s second-biggest exporter of canola — also known as rapeseed — but has been shut out of China’s market since 2020 due to phytosanitary concerns related to plant health.

 

Argentina farm export revenues sink in February on strikes, holidays

Export revenues from Argentina’s agricultural sector fell 41% in February from a year earlier to $1.29 billion, the CIARA-CEC grains processors and exporters chamber said on Monday, blaming the drop on holidays and strikes.

Unions in the South American country held stoppages last month to protest a labor reform backed by libertarian President Javier Milei, which the Senate approved on Friday.

Milei’s administration argues the reform will spur investment and create formal jobs, while labor unions contend it weakens worker protections.

CIARA-CEC said in a statement the lower export revenues were particularly linked to “the national strike days called by oilseed‑sector unions for political reasons unrelated to the industry.”

February was also marked by a “significant reduction in working days – only 15 in total – due to holidays,” it added.

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, as well as a major corn and wheat supplier.

 

 

 

 

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