Global Ag News For March 19.2026

TOP HEADLINES

US waives shipping regulation to ease fuel, fertilizer deliveries

• Foreign-flagged vessels can move fuel between domestic ports
• American Maritime Partnership ‘deeply concerned’ about US jobs
• Risk advisor doubts that the step will help lower prices much

President Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, temporarily allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer and other goods between U.S. ports to combat price increases and supply disruptions from the Iran conflict.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the waiver represents “another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the U.S. military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury.”

The waiver, a rare exception to the century-old law, underscores the administration’s urgent response to a crisis that has sent gasoline prices sharply higher and disrupted critical fertilizer supplies for U.S. farmers.

The American Maritime Partnership, a Washington‑based advocacy group representing U.S. ship operators, said it was “deeply concerned” that the 60‑day broad waiver would displace U.S. workers and companies, and said the exemption is intended only for immediate threats to military operations. The group pledged to closely monitor its implementation.

Relaxing the Jones Act allows coastal refiners and fuel distributors to access a larger pool of ships, including foreign-flagged vessels, to move gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products between ports.

While analysts caution the move is unlikely to significantly lower pump prices, it signals a pragmatic shift by Trump, who has long championed U.S. shipbuilding and maritime labor unions, key supporters of the Jones Act.

Brett Erickson, a managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said the Jones Act waiver – along with other efforts – will not have a meaningful impact on prices.

“We’re completely at the mercy right now of Iran, and as long as they have a credible threat to maritime shipping across the Strait of Hormuz, we’re in a quagmire right now,” he said.

U.S. gasoline prices have surged since the start of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

High energy prices carry significant political risks for Trump and fellow Republicans, who have long argued that their policies would keep fuel affordable for American consumers.

The top U.S. oil refinery trade group, American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, welcomed the waiver, saying it would provide much-needed flexibility.

The conflict has also disrupted fertilizer supplies, a major concern for U.S. farmers.

Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, applauded the waiver, which came as some farmers have started spring plantings.

“The jump in fertilizer and fuel costs, as well as the threat of shortages, sent shockwaves across rural America,” he said.

Under the Jones Act, goods shipped between U.S. ports must be carried on vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged and mostly U.S.-owned. Maritime industry unions support the requirement, which sharply limits the number of tankers available for domestic shipments.

The administration’s waiver is one of several emergency measures being employed to counter the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, including releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and adjustments to sanctions policy, as Washington seeks to stabilize markets ahead of domestic political pressures.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 in SRW, up 5 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 4 1/4; Soymeal up $3.80; Soyoil up 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 1/4 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 59 1/4; Soymeal up $2.80; Soyoil down 1.72.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 3/4 in SRW, up 50 3/4 in HRW, up 1/3 in HRS; Corn is up 19; Soybeans down 4 3/4; Soymeal up $5.00; Soyoil up 3.87.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 20.6% in SRW, up 22.6% in HRW, up 12.5% in HRS; Corn is up 6.1%; Soybeans up 13.1%; Soymeal up 10.5%; Soyoil up 36.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 73 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 20; Palm oil down 20; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 84.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 84 ringgit (+1.86%) at 4612.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 641 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 241 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 18 were: SRW Wheat up 472 contracts, HRW Wheat up 304, Corn up 18,163, Soybeans down 9,765, Soymeal down 1,856, Soyoil down 103.

 

Northern Plains: Temperatures are rising and will be quite warm the rest of the week, melting the recent snow. A cold front will move through this weekend with limited showers and some cooler air, but the region will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures through the end of the month. Fronts will move through, but with little precipitation is in the forecast.

Central/Southern Plains: Warmer air is building over the region and will be record warm late this week after some frost damage earlier this week. This weekend and next week, a couple of fronts will move through but with very little precipitation in the forecast. The recent frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought continues to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat, and being unfavorable for the start of planting as well.

Midwest: A blast of arctic air is already moving out of the region, with a little batch of snow to welcome in the warmer air. Despite some cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction. Several fronts will move through later this week, weekend, and next week, bringing changing temperatures. However, little precipitation is in the forecast.

Delta: Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture and reducing drought, as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should be a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further. And if dry conditions continue next week as well, as currently forecast, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

Brazil: Scattered showers continue across central Brazil throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn, but may thin out this weekend into next week, which would not be. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front moved in on Tuesday with scattered showers that last on Wednesday as well. More rain will be needed there as it is getting much drier. There is limited opportunity for more rainfall on the current forecast.

Argentina: A front finally brought some heavy rain to southern areas on Monday and Tuesday, which will help to stabilize crop conditions. Another front will do something similar for Friday through the weekend with potential for another early next week. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful.

Europe: Scattered showers fell in central Europe earlier this week, but is followed by drier conditions through the weekend. A chance for a system will drop into eastern areas next week, which would be favorable. With warmer temperatures bringing winter wheat out of dormancy, some of the crop is doing so in fairly dry conditions, especially in the northeast.

 

The player sheet for 3/18 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 24,500 corn, buyers of 5,500 soybeans, buyers of 8,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2026/27 marketing year.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 105,025 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 24.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 50,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was March 11.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was March 13.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending March 12.

• Corn est. range 700k – 2,000k tons, with avg of 1,350k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 800k tons, with avg of 431k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 3.2% to 26.407M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.74 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.093m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.125m

 

US CROP EXPORTS: 120,000 Tons of Soy Meal to Unknown Buyers

The US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday announces export sales activity on its website:

• The sale is for the 2026-27 marketing year
  • The last flash sale of soybean meal was in January

 

US Sold 466K Tons of Soy Week of March 5; 1.5M of Corn

USDA corrects corn sales to 1.504m tons from 1.531m tons for the week ending March 5. This story originally was published on March 12.

• Corn sales fell to 1,504k tons vs 2,177k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 466k tons vs 384k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 496k tons vs 258k in previous week

 

S&P Global sees US 2026 corn plantings at 95.2 million acres

S&P Global Energy projected that U.S. farmers would plant 95.2 million acres of corn in 2026 and 85.0 million acres of soybeans, the firm said in a note released to clients on Tuesday.

Here are some details:

• The firm raised its corn plantings forecast to 95.2 million acres from its January projection of 95.0 million acres. U.S. farmers planted 98.8 million acres of corn in 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
• S&P projected U.S. 2026 soybean plantings at 85.0 million acres, up from its January forecast of 84.5 million and up from the 81.2 million acres seeded in 2025.
• Prices for most crops have risen since the end of February amid “heightened geopolitical risks” in the Middle East, S&P said in the note. “While recent price movements have become slightly more favorable for additional corn plantings, higher fuel and fertilizer costs remain a concern,” the note said.
• S&P projected total U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.050 million acres, 40,000 acres above its January projection but down by about 1.3 million acres from 2025.
• The firm estimated winter wheat plantings for harvest in 2026 at 32.4 million acres, unchanged from January but down from 33.153 million a year earlier.
• S&P said its forecasts were based on the results of a monthly survey of farmers and agribusinesses.

 

Brazil sounds alarm on fertilizers as price spike spurs cheaper alternatives

Brazil could face fertilizer supply problems if the conflict in the Middle East does not ease soon, the nation’s farm minister said, criticizing sellers for sharp increases in local urea prices as analysts said farmers may turn to cheaper alternatives.

Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Tuesday that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran had already triggered urea price increases in Brazil within days, with some sellers even suspending sales despite holding inventories prior to the conflict.

Market pressures have intensified since late February after joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, with shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz rattling the energy and fertilizer industries. Roughly one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the waterway, by some estimates.

Favaro warned that a prolonged conflict could create broader risks for the country’s farm sector, which imported a record 45.5 million metric tons of fertilizers in 2025.

“It is a concern, naturally. There is a sense that there is a certain opportunism in the market, after all, stocks already present in Brazil have been repriced. That makes no sense,” Favaro said.

StoneX reported prices of urea delivered to Brazil jumped about 35% in two weeks, making the product less attractive to buyers and potentially pushing importers and farmers toward cheaper options such as ammonium sulfate.

The brokerage cited data that showed Brazil’s urea imports in the first two months of the year fell 33% from a year earlier, while ammonium sulfate imports rose 19%.

Urea is one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilizers on Brazilian farms because of its high nutrient concentration, which usually justifies its cost. But when prices rise sharply, buyers can switch to cheaper, lower-concentration products.

Lower prices for Brazil’s agricultural exports have added to the tough decisions now facing farmers, StoneX analyst Tomas Pernias said in the report.

 

Brazil soybean harvest in full swing amid continued regional delays

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.2 [175.5–181.4] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is nearly unchanged at 178.2 million tons, with the harvest in full swing under improving late season weather despite lukewarm progress to catch up from the ongoing delays. A record-high yield/production outlook is sustained. Our current median estimate is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 180 million tons (released on 10 March), which assumes total soy sowings at 49.4 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.64 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 48.8 million hectares and 3.65 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 177.8 million tons and 48.4 million hectares, respectively (released on 13 March).

Most of Brazil’s soybean growing regions experienced improved weather over the past two weeks, with overall drier conditions compared to late February and early March. As of 14 March, Brazil’s soybeans were 59.2% combined nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 16 March), still behind last year’s pace of 69.8% but slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 58.4%. Harvest season is wrapping up on schedule in the top producing state Mato Grosso. Some local delays remain a concern in São Paulo and Goiás, however, warranting continued attention. Nonetheless, this season’s national-level soybean yield and production should be well on track for a record-breaking year.

 

Volatile weather conditions expected in Argentina ahead of soybean harvest

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.4 [46.3–48.5] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production remains nearly unchanged at 47.4 million tons, as most fields progress beyond the pod-fill stage and enter maturity/harvest preparations on schedule. Short-term forecasts are calling for significant rainfall over the coming weeks, warranting close monitoring. In March’s WASDE (released on 10 March), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 48.5 million tons in February. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 48.5 and 48 million tons, respectively.

A continued trend of the wet-northwest/dry-southeast pattern largely remained in place over the past two weeks across Argentina’s main Pampas region, as the soybean crop moves past the crucial pod‑fill stage and into late development. Forecasts indicating the arrival of very heavy rainfall next week warrant attention, as this timing may overlap with maturity, a stage when dry conditions are particularly favored. An influx of moisture at this stage could cause more harm than good, as it may not allow the plants to dry down, failing to prevent mold from moisture build-up while raising quality concerns. Close tracking of precipitation patterns over the next few weeks will be important as the main harvest period begins.

 

Paraguay soybean harvest nears completion under moderate weather

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 11.5 [10.9–12.1] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production remains nearly unchanged at a record-high 11.5 million tons, as favorable late season weather conditions across core producing areas of the southeastern Oriental Region bode well for harvest. Some wetness is expected next week, warranting attention. Our current production outlook is in line with the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 11.5 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.8 million hectares and 3.03 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 3.71 million hectares and 3.10 tph, respectively).

 

Russia’s wheat production rises on favorable weather conditions

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 84.0 [81.3-87.3] MILLION TONS, UP 3% FROM LAST UPDATE

Russia’s wheat production forecast for the 2026/27 season has been revised upward by 3% to 84.0 [81.3–87.3] million tons. This adjustment reflects a higher estimate for winter wheat production, now projected at 60.1 million tons, while the spring wheat forecast remains unchanged at 23.9 million tons. These figures exclude production from the occupied Ukrainian oblasts. The upward revision is primarily supported by broadly favorable winter weather overall, including low winterkill and generally strong crop survival, despite temporary cold spells in late January and early February across regions like the Central district, which did not result in significant damage due to adequate protective snow cover in most areas.

Over the past month, temperatures across key wheat‑producing regions have ranged from near normal to above average, with precipitation levels also falling within the near‑to above‑average range. Looking ahead, forecasts for the next two weeks indicate above‑normal temperatures and low to moderate rainfall across the Central, North Caucasian, Southern, and Volga districts. Meanwhile, soil moisture levels in parts of the Volga district remain at a six‑year low and will require continued monitoring. While short‑term weather conditions remain generally supportive, the critical April–May period introduces some spring‑season uncertainty that will warrant close observation.

 

India’s wheat production up on increased area

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 117.6 [114.0-121.5] MILLION TONS, UP 3% FROM LAST UPDATE

India’s 2026/27 wheat production estimate has been raised by 3% to 117.6 [114.0–121.5] million tons following an upward revision to the planted area. Over the past 30 days, above‑normal temperatures and below‑average rainfall were recorded across several key producing states, most notably Punjab, raising concerns about potential impacts on yields.

Beyond Punjab, satellite imagery analysis points to broadly favorable crop conditions, with vegetation density at or above the long‑term median in most major wheat‑growing zones. Harvesting activities are already underway in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and parts of Gujarat, marking the early phase of the season’s collection.

Short‑term forecasts indicate near‑normal to slightly warmer temperatures with limited rainfall across much of the wheat belt. While elevated temperatures in March require continued monitoring due to their potential influence on yield formation, LSEG’s April weather outlook suggests a shift toward more moderate conditions, with near‑normal temperatures and precipitation anticipated across key regions. If realized, these conditions should help support the harvest campaign.

 

MPOC sees crude palm oil staying above $1,130/ton on rising energy prices

KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 (Reuters) – Crude palm oil prices are expected to remain above 4,450 ringgit ($1,130) per metric ton in the near term due to rising energy prices and uncertainty in the Middle East, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council said on Thursday.

Palm oil prices will be supported by elevated energy prices and a favourable palm oil-gasoil spread, the council said.

“However, weaker economic growth and heightened price volatility arising from uncertainties in the Middle East may temporarily delay imports from major markets, potentially capping the price rally,” it added.

 

White House says China agreed to postpone Trump’s Beijing trip

The White House said on Wednesday that China had agreed to postpone U.S. President Donald Trump’svisit to Beijing, originally scheduled in just two weeks.

Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said that the White House was working to secure a new date for the visit as soon as possible.

Trump, citing the demands of the Iran war, said on Tuesday that he would take the trip to Asia in “about five or six weeks” but did not specify a date.

“Head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to bilateral relations,” said a spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington in response to a request for comment. “China and the U.S. will continue to maintain communication on President Trump’s visit to China.”

 

Cattle disease spreads in Russia amid scepticism over diagnosis

• Disease outbreaks reported in 10 regions
• One Russian region with registered outbreak borders China
• Farmers, scientists question official diagnosis
• Government commission arrives in affected region

Cattle diseases officially identified as pasteurellosis or rabies have spread across Russia, affecting at least 10 regions as of Wednesday, but some farmers and scientists are questioning the diagnosis and the sweeping culls ordered by authorities.

Officials on Wednesday imposed a cattle quarantine in part of the Chuvashia region in the Volga, more than 2,500 km (1,500 miles) west of Siberia’s Novosibirsk region, where a state of emergency has been declared.

Farmers in Novosibirsk – who have been confronting police and officials in the biggest non-political protests since the start of the war in Ukraine – say pasteurellosis, a bacterial infection, can be treated with antibiotics.

Veterinary expert Svetlana Shchepyotkina said regulations require treating animals sick with pasteurellosis and vaccinating healthy herds. Animals with rabies can be removed only after the diagnosis is confirmed.

“Destroying livestock due to pasteurellosis is sheer unprofessionalism and, frankly, outright madness,” she said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said rapid action was needed in such cases, without commenting further. The agriculture ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

A government commission led by Sergei Dankvert, head of the agriculture watchdog, has arrived in the region to examine local measures that include burning thousands of culled cattle.

“Overall, the situation in the Novosibirsk region is under control,” Dankvert said in a statement after inspections. But he added, “the disease has taken on an unusual form and started to mutate.”

Russian media have also reported outbreaks in regions bordering Novosibirsk, including the Republic of Altai, which neighbours China – a country known for strict veterinary controls.

Russia aims to boost agricultural exports by 50% by 2030 to help diversify its energy-dependent economy, targeting China and other Asian markets amid Western sanctions, and has been aligning its veterinary rules with global standards. The current outbreak could pose a risk to these ambitions.

 

 

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