Global Ag News For March 13.2026

TOP HEADLINES

NOAA Calls For Climate Shift Within the Next Month — Market Talk

1012 ET – The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says that climate is expected to shift to neutral versus a La Niña system over the course of the next month. Climate is then expected to stay neutral through the spring, before transitioning to an El Niño over the summer. The agency gives a 62% for the climate to turn to an El Niño system emerging between June and August. El Niño typically brings wet and cool conditions to southern states, with warmer and drier conditions further north. A dry summer could affect the yields of crops growing across the Corn Belt.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 9 1/2; Soymeal down $3.00; Soyoil down 0.28.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 3/4 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 17; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.56.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 32 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 14; Soybeans up 47; Soymeal down $3.30; Soyoil up 5.29.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 16.8% in SRW, up 16.9% in HRW, up 8.3% in HRS; Corn is up 1.8%; Soybeans up 17.7%; Soymeal up 8.6%; Soyoil up 40.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 75 yuan; Soymeal up 58; Soyoil up 64; Palm oil up 68; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 14.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 14 ringgit (+0.31%) at 4555.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 689 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 239 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 12 were: SRW Wheat up 5,140 contracts, HRW Wheat up 790, Corn up 28,874, Soybeans up 9,786, Soymeal up 2,357, Soyoil up 607.

 

INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA WILL AFFECT WINTER WHEAT GROWTH IN RUSSIA

Weather anomaly severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat, Corn/Rapeseed (plantings)

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High throughout the next 12-13 days, low after 25th of March

Forecast change: Cooler/drier for E.U. during the 6-15 day timeframe

  

Northern Plains: The weather pattern is chaotic with two more systems through the weekend. Some heavy precipitation will be possible, including heavy snow. Strong winds from both systems may create some areas of damage. There are some drier areas that really need this precipitation and probably more before spring planting commences.

Central/Southern Plains: A stronger system moved moved through on Tuesday and Wednesday with stronger storms and heavier rain in the southeast and some snow across the north. A system will pass through this weekend, but will target Nebraska over the rest of the region and even then may not bring much precipitation. Drier areas in the southwest are becoming concerning for winter wheat, particularly in the Texas Panhandle, while drought areas in the southeast got some improvement, creating mixed conditions. Winds will occasionally be quite strong through the weekend, which may cause some damage and increase the risk of wildfires. Extreme warmth next week could break records, leading to more widespread drought increases.

Midwest: A system moved through on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread favorable rainfall, but also produced some severe weather. Another system will produce a mix of rain and snow and strong winds for Thursday and Friday. Another will move through this weekend, which is forecast to bring heavy precipitation, snow, strong winds, potential blizzard conditions, and then a significant drop in temperature. Another disturbance will move through in the middle of next week with a mix of rain and snow before temperatures rise above normal again. Recent and forecast precipitation will help to reduce drought across much of the region prior to spring planting.

Delta: A system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region on Wednesday, adding to the heavy rain from the weekend and easing drought. Rainfall deficits have been large over the winter though, and this rainfall will not be enough to completely eliminate the drought. A strong cold front will move through this weekend with some showers, but drier conditions are likely to resume afterward. After some drought reduction, it appears that the dryness could turn the momentum back toward increasing the drought later this month.

Brazil: Scattered showers have filled back in across central Brazil, being more favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. That should continue through next week, though areas in the south will be much drier with poorer conditions. A couple of fronts may produce some better precipitation there next week. Soil moisture is still on the low side and there is limited time to stack soil moisture before the wet season rainfall shuts down in the next 6-8 weeks.

Argentina: It has been very dry this week, though spotty showers continue to be possible for the next few days, mainly across the south and west. Spots in the southeast are particularly dry and in need of rainfall. A front is forecast to move through this weekend with more widespread precipitation, and another is expected for early-mid next week. But time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact for filling corn and soybeans as early-planted corn continues to be harvested while harvest will pick up for soybeans late this month into April.

 

The player sheet for 3/12 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• BARLEY PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally bought about 175,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Friday
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is March 18.
• UKRAINE GRAIN SHIPMENTS: Ukraine’s grain shipments by rail to Black Sea ports for subsequent export rose by 10% in March 1-10 compared to the same period in February, thanks to favourable weather conditions, state railway company Ukrzaliznytsia said. 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was March 11.
• SOYBEAN TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 45,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically modified organisms, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was March 12.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is March 13.
• CORN TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import 280,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is March 16, they added.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is March 17.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 105,020 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers is March 19.
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued an international tender to purchase around 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States only

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 466.2K Tons of Soybeans Week of March 5; 1.53M of Corn

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending March 5.

• Corn sales fell to 1,531k tons vs 2,177k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 466k tons vs 384k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 496k tons vs 258k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending March 5

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending March 5, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 5.2k tons of the 23.7k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil Soy, Corn Production Before Conab’s Report

Brazil 2025-26 soybean production seen 1.3m metric tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous estimate in February, according to the average in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 177.7m tons to 182.3m tons
• Brazil’s corn crop seen 1.4m tons higher at 139.8m tons
• Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on March 13 at 9am local time.

 

Brazilian trade lobbies ‘concerned’ with difficulties exporting soybeans to China

Brazilian trade groups Abiove and Anec are “concerned” and closely following recent developments related to soybean exports to China, they said on Thursday, after Cargill said it halted shipments to the Asian country due to Brazil inspection changes.

Abiove, an oilseed lobby, and Anec, a group of grains exporters, said in a joint statement they were seeking solutions with authorities to guarantee the flow of trade. They did not address Cargill in the statement.

Cargill’s Latin America head Paulo Sousa told Reuters on Wednesday that Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry adopted a stricter sanitary evaluation on soybeans bound for China to check for pests and weeds after a request from the Chinese government.

The new oversight model has made it harder for traders to comply with regulations, he added.

Cargill was the main shipper of soybeans to China last year, sending some 14 million metric tons, data from shipping agency Cargonave showed, while China imported about 80% of the 108.7 million tons Brazil exported in 2025, according to Anec.

Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry did not reply to a request for comment.

In an interview with CNN Brasil on Thursday, Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said Cargill was wrong in attributing the situation to changes in procedures, adding the government will not weaken the sanitation system due to an “irresponsible” corporate stance.

The minister said that compliance with the protocol restricts seeds of weeds that do not exist in the importing country, and that a solution will require negotiations between exporters, buyers and the two countries.

The standoff comes at a time when Brazil is at the peak period of soy exports.

 

Brazil agricultural exports hit record revenue for February

Brazil’s agribusiness exports totaled $12.05 billion in February, a new record for the month and up 7.4% from a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday.

• The results were driven by a 9% rise in export volumes, the government said, offsetting a drop in average international prices.
• Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, coffee, cotton, sugar, beef and chicken, and a top supplier of corn and pork.
• China remained the top destination, with $3.6 billion in purchases, accounting for 30.5% of total exports last month.
• Other major buyers included the European Union ($1.8 billion) and the United States ($802.9 million).
• Soybeans and by-products accounted for 31.4% of total revenues, posting a 16.4% rise to $3.78 billion.
• Revenue from animal protein exports hit $2.7 billion, up 22.5% year-on-year.

 

Brazil scraps taxes on diesel, imposes levy on oil exports after price spike

• Brazil aims to soften the blow of the spike in oil prices
• Spike in diesel prices threatens Brazil’s farm sector

Brazil’s government scrapped taxes on diesel while imposing a levy on oil exports in a move on Thursday that could affect state-run oil firm Petrobras, as the country seeks to soften the blow of the recent spike in global oil prices.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration said the temporary measures would reduce the impact of price swings related to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran on local fuel prices, particularly diesel.

The South American country cut the PIS and Cofins federal taxes levied on diesel to zero and imposed a 12% tax on crude oil exports, as well as a 50% levy on diesel shipments.

“Oil prices are getting out of control,” Lula told a press conference announcing the measures in Brasilia.

The spike in diesel prices has emerged as a threat to Brazil’s powerful farm sector, raising costs for producers who are harvesting a record soybean crop and planting corn they cannot afford to delay.

While Petrobras has not raised local fuel prices, Brazil is still partly reliant on imported diesel, and distributors have been reluctant to sell it at Petrobras’ prices, concerned about a possible price hike in the near future.

The government expects diesel prices at the pump to fall by 0.64 reais ($0.1227) per liter due to the tax cut and a direct subsidy program that will provide payments to diesel producers and importers.

 

China taps fertiliser reserves as Hormuz closure disrupts global supply

China said on Friday it would release fertilizers from national commercial reserves ahead of spring planting, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global supplies.

The move aims to ensure adequate supply during peak agricultural demand, the China Agricultural Means of Production Association said in a statement, instructing storage firms to sell reserves to support orderly trading and stabilise prices.

The release includes nitrogen, phosphate and compound fertilisers.

The early drawdown of reserves follows a series of warnings from state-linked industry bodies urging producers not to hoard supplies or raise prices as farmers across the country prepare for spring planting.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut down regional fertiliser plants and severely disrupted shipping routes, threatening supplies to key global importers like India as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere gear up for planting.

The global fertiliser market was already tight, with China restricting exports this year to secure domestic supply， analysts said.

China, the world’s largest producer of urea – a nitrogen based fertiliser, tightly controls exports via quotas and has issued no permits for shipments this year.

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could reduce global output, although China remains on track to produce a record 76.5 million tons of urea this year, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association said.

 

Argentine rains continue to improve soy crops, exchange says

Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean crop conditions improved for a second consecutive week, boosted by recent rainfall in key growing areas, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday.

The grains exchange maintained its 2025/26 soybean production estimate at 48.5 million metric tons.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal.

The exchange rated 76.2% of the soy crop “normal/excellent”, a week-on-week improvement of two percentage points.

Argentine farmers have harvested 9.4% of the 2025/26 corn planted area.

Recent rains also benefited corn crop development, the exchange said.

The exchange forecasts 2025/26 corn output at 57 million metric tons.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter.

 

High costs and weak prices indicate US corn output may fall 7.2% in 2026

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 401.3 [357.9-421.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN 7.2% FROM LAST SEASON

Economic, policy, and geopolitical factors place the 2026/27 US corn planting at 93.9 million acres, a 5% decrease from last year. With a trend-yield of 183.5 bushels per acre, production is expected to fall 7.2% to 15.8 billion bushels.

Over the past two years, corn prices have remained weak, whereas soybean prices experienced a notable increase in early 2026. As a result, the projected soybean-to-corn price ratio—calculated using the Future December contract for corn and Future November contract for soybean—has rebounded from a ten-year low last year to levels near the long-term average. This shift reflects improved returns for soybeans relative to corn.

Additionally, corn production is significantly more input-intensive compared to soybean, particularly regarding fertilizer usage. According to the USDA’s December forecasts, operating costs for corn are approximately 80% higher than those for soybeans. The current elevated prices for fertilizer and fuel, driven by the ongoing Middle East crisis, are further increasing production expenses. In response, U.S. farmers may plant more soybeans instead of corn to reduce costs and improve their financial returns.

The easing of US-China trade tensions has bolstered US soybean export outlook, although uncertainties persist. Regulatory changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the new Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are also supporting domestic soybean crushing, which in turn strengthens soybean prices. Conversely, high domestic corn stocks and positive production prospects in South America have pressured corn prices, despite strong export sales and robust domestic demand for feed and ethanol.

Looking ahead, US corn plantings in 2026 are expected to decline by 5% from last year to 93.9 million acres. However, actual plantings are subject to spring weather conditions.

Regarding weather, while relatively low soil moisture and recent warm, dry weather have increased dryness concerns in the Mississippi Delta Region, overall soil moisture across key corn-producing areas remains adequate for spring planting, especially after widespread rainfall in early March has replenished soil moisture levels in the Midwest. The actual planting conditions will be determined by weather patterns from April through June. For the summer, forecasts present a mixed outlook: the EC seasonal forecasts indicate a wetter summer with temperatures close to normal, whereas the GFS v2 models project warmer and drier conditions across most corn-producing regions from May to September. Given these divergent forecasts, a trend yield of 183.5 bushels per acre has been adopted, leading to a projected total corn production of 17.8 billion bushels for the 2026 season.

 

Acreage shifts from corn to boost 2026/27 U.S. soybean production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

Great acreage shifts from corn, increased consumption expectations, and baseline yield projections initially set 2026/27 U.S. soybean production at 4.49 billion bushels (or 122.3 million tons), up 5.4% from last season. While preliminary, soybean planted area is estimated to increase by 5.6% to 85.8 million acres, benefiting mostly from corn area shrinkage and growing domestic crush/biofuel sector, despite stagnant Chinese demand and rising production costs. USDA pegged soy area and production at 85 million acres and 4.45 billion bushels, respectively, in Grains and Oilseeds Outlook presented during the Agricultural Outlook Forum (19-20 February 2026). The USDA will release its Prospective Plantings report on 31 March, with acreage estimates derived from farmer surveys.

A significant acreage shift from corn to soy is likely to take place this season, as farmers carefully consider relative profitability between the two major competing summer crops amid tight net income prospects. While both crop markets have trended upward since December, soybean prices have climbed more sharply, pushing the soy-to-corn price ratio to its highest level in nearly eight years. Soybeans are expected to maintain a relative cost advantage over corn as well, especially under ongoing fertilizer market disruptions tied to the Iran-U.S. war. Fertilizer cost inflation disproportionately affects corn, where nitrogen-based inputs account for more than one-third of operating costs, far higher than in soybeans. While the U.S.’ external demand outlooks are less than favorable for soy as the Iran-U.S. war shifts the progressing U.S.-China trade relations back into a state of conflict, its domestic consumption prospects remain strong, with expanding domestic crush capacities and increasing crush volumes. The U.S. Treasury’s recent 45Z guidance (released on 02 February), which boosted expectations for soy-based biofuel demand by clarifying low-carbon fuel credit eligibility rules and reducing policy uncertainty, should also support a robust demand base.

Planting conditions remain a key variable in acreage outcomes. Corn planting normally begins during early April and ends in May, while soybean planting windows usually range from late April through mid-June, offering U.S. farmers more time/room for acreage decisions. The latest ENSO outlook by LSEG Weather Research team (released on 05 March) suggests that the odds of El Niño development by June-August are increasing, hinting generally positive yield potential. While precipitation forecasts are mixed, temperatures are expected to trend above normal during the period, warranting close monitoring. Yield and percent harvested could vary greatly in response to forward weather, but under normal conditions should reach 52.9 bushels per acre (bpa) and 98.8% harvested, respectively.

 

Expana cuts EU wheat, barley export outlook due to Middle East war

Consultancy Expana lowered its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season for a fifth consecutive month after reducing projected wheat and barley shipments to the Middle East due to the war in the region, it said on Thursday.

In a monthly report, the consultancy put EU soft wheat exports at 27.1 million metric tons, down from 27.6 million last month – which would still exceed the 2024/25 low level, when a poor harvest hampered French shipments.

“To reflect the immediate impact of the war in the Middle East, we are initially revising down our forecasts for European wheat and barley exports to countries in the region,” it said in the report.

The consultancy’s cuts in EU export forecasts to the region were for 250,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of barley, Benoit Fayaud, senior grain analyst at Expana, said separately.

At a global level, it revised soft wheat imports to the Middle East in 2025/26 by 1.6 million tons, corn imports by 1.7 million tons and barley imports by 500,000 tons.

Trade flows during the first part of the campaign were very dynamic and two months of slowdown would ultimately have only a moderate impact on overall volumes for the current marketing year, Expana said in its report.

“If the conflict were to last longer, or if, for example, energy prices were to remain permanently higher, and consequently cereal prices would follow, then we would be forced to further reduce our demand estimate, not only in the Middle East, but also globally,” Fayaud said.

For 2026/27, the consultancy raised its forecast for the bloc’s soft wheat crop to 128.6 million tons, up from 128.3 million last month, and increased its barley outlook to 52.3 million tons from 52.2 million last month.

By contrast, Expana cut its 2026 maize production forecast in the bloc to 57.9 million tons, down from 58.3 million last month, citing a downward revision for France.

 

German Grain Harvest Seen 3.5% Lower in 2026: DRV

Germany is expected to produce 43.7 million tons of grains in 2026, agricultural cooperatives group DRV says in a statement.

• That compares with 45.3 million tons last year
  • Winter wheat production will fall 7.7% to 20.8 million tons in 2026
  • Winter barley will be little changed at 9.45 million tons
  • Expects rapeseed production to rise 3.7% to 4.1 million tons
• Sees German grain sector coming under extra pressure due to the Iran war boosting costs of fuel and fertilizers
• Exports from Germany to the Middle East seeing logistical problems
• Fertilizer supplies are sufficient for the spring season because of the sector’s low dependence on the Middle East

 

Brazil needs more studies before boosting biodiesel mix in diesel, energy minister says

Brazil needs to finalize technical feasibility studies before deciding on whether to increase the biodiesel mix in diesel beyond 15%, Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira told a press conference on Thursday.

• Farm lobbies have asked the government to hike the mandatory biodiesel mix in diesel to 17% from 15%.
• They have said that doing so would mitigate the impact of rising oil prices on the diesel market.
• The president’s chief of staff Rui Costa said hiking the mix would not be appropriate for containing diesel prices, noting that Brazil does not have enough biodiesel supply to justify such a move.
• However, according to lobby group Aprobio, the biodiesel industry has installed capacity to meet a mix of up to 21.6%.
• The government scrapped taxes on diesel on Thursday while imposing a levy on oil exports, as it seeks to soften the blow of the recent spike in global oil prices.

 

Bird flu detections in birds are declining in Europe, report says

Avian influenza detections in birds have started to decline across Europe following an autumn and winter during which circulation of the virus in waterfowl reached its highest level in five years, EU health officials said in a report on Thursday.

The spread of the highly pathogenic viral disease, commonly called bird flu, is a concern for governments and the poultry industry due to the devastation it can cause to flocks, its impact on food prices and a risk of a new pandemic.

• Detections have begun to fall since December, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the EU Reference Laboratory (EURL) said in a quarterly report on the virus.
• Between November 29 and February 27, authorities recorded 406 outbreaks of bird flu in domestic birds in 32 European countries and 2,108 outbreaks in wild birds, they said.
• While detections in domestic birds were similar to the same quarter in the past two years, detections in wild birds were still three times higher than last year and almost five times higher than two years ago – a legacy of the unusually intense autumn-winter peak, they said.
• Most infections in poultry farms resulted from indirect contact with wild birds, while farm-to-farm spread was rare.
• Although bird cases are declining, there has been a slight increase in detections among mammals, they said.
• For the first time in the European Union, tests on a healthy dairy cattle herd found evidence of past exposure to bird flu, suggesting a possible spillover from wild birds. Investigations into these cases are ongoing, they said.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 610k tons in the week ending March 7 from 579k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 15.4% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 12.4% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $20.23 per short ton, a decline of $2.83 from the previous week

 

 

 

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