Global Ag News for Mar 7.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Corn Soars Most Since June as US Delays Mexico, Canada Tariffs

Grains prices in Chicago soared as US President Donald Trump moved to delay tariffs on some goods from Mexico and Canada, providing some relief to the agriculture industry.

Trump said Mexico will be exempt from his new 25% tariffs on any goods and services that fall under the North American trade agreement known as USMCA. The administration at the time signaled it would also likely defer tariffs on Canada, which Trump did after the markets settled.

The decisions, which are in effect until April 2, are welcome news for American farmers heading into the spring planting season, placing a pause on duties for everything from sugar to canola oil, while setting a lower tariff for potash.

The development is the latest in a frenzied week that saw Trump apply 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He also doubled his recent tariff on China to 20%. That sparked a furious pushback, including a round of retaliatory tariffs from Canada on US goods.

The White House estimates that 62% of Canadian imports will still be subject to the tariffs, and half of goods coming from Mexico. A White House official cautioned those proportions could change as importers rush to comply with the new rules.

The decision offers reprieves to the US’s two largest trading partners. Canadian potash used heavily in fertilizers for US agricultural producers is expected to face a lower, 10% duty. The US gets about 85% of the potash it needs each year for crops from Canada.

Mexico, meanwhile, is the main buyer of US wheat and corn. In January, the US shipped 6.2 million tons of corn globally, up 43% from a year earlier, with most of it going to Mexico, according to data on US Census Bureau’s website compiled by Bloomberg.

Mexico ships tomatoes and fresh berries, and supplies more than 90% of the avocados consumed by Americans each year. It’s also the biggest supplier of sugar to the US, accounting for about a third of all inbound shipments on a typical year, according to the USDA.

Relief for Canadian canola oil will aid US makers of biofuels, such as renewable diesel, and manufacturers of foods like salad dressing and mayonnaise, as well as consumers and restaurant chains that use the farm commodity to cook french fries and other foods.

Canada and Mexico are key markets for US biofuels, with Canada the industry’s top export market for ethanol by far, making up about 35% of total exports last year, according to government data.

Geoff Cooper, chief executive officer of ethanol trade group Renewable Fuels Association, praised the delay in tariffs. “We encourage trade officials from the US, Canada, and Mexico to work together to ensure the continued free flow of ethanol and co-products throughout North America,” he said.

The reprieve comes after lawmakers from states with strong agriculture interests pleaded for exemptions for fertilizers and other products that are critical for growing US crops. More than a dozen senators, including Amy Klobuchar, ranking Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, called on the president to reverse the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in a letter Thursday.

“At a time when farmers operate on razor-thin margins due to low commodity prices and increased input costs, the chaos and uncertainty of these tariffs threatens their livelihoods,” the letter said. “In addition to making it harder for farmers to sell their products, these tariffs will make it harder for Americans to put food on the table.”

Still, uncertainty lingers over what will happen with tariffs after April 2, with some warning that the lack of visibility is a drag on the biofuels business.

“The on-again, off-again tariffs are creating uncertainty for farmers and US biofuel producers,” which will undermine American energy production, said Paul Winters, director of public affairs and federal communications at Clean Fuels Alliance America.

The back-and-forth is also expected to continue being reflected in commodities prices.

The uncertainty of knowing Trump’s next steps on tariffs “is going to keep the market volatile, but maybe capped to a certain extent as well until we have a better picture of what everything looks like,” said Angie Setzer, co-founder of farm advisory Consus Ag Consulting.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 8 in SRW, down 14 1/4 in HRW, down 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal up $4.70; Soyoil down 0.90.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.6% in SRW, down 1.4% in HRW, down 2.8% in HRS; Corn is down 2.0%; Soybeans up 1.6%; Soymeal down 3.4%; Soyoil up 7.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 23 yuan; Soymeal up 19; Soyoil up 82; Palm oil up 148; Corn up 15 — Malaysian Palm is up 145.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 145 ringgit (+3.24%) at 4625.

 

There were changes in registrations (-2 Oats, -30 Soymeal, -16 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 739 Soybeans; 1,330 Soyoil; 1,490 Soymeal; 389 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 6 were: SRW Wheat down 1,555 contracts, HRW Wheat down 23, Corn down 195, Soybeans down 2,691, Soymeal down 1,993, Soyoil up 1,002.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 06 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Despite a rapidly fading La Niña, early indications for the U.S. summer continue to feature widespread heat/drought risks, with the worst conditions in the western Corn Belt
• SOUTH AMERICA: There is no end in sight to drought risks over Southeast Brazil through June-August, which along with elevated frost potential could further elevate downside risks to coffee
• EUROPE: A cool and wet summer could be in store for Europe in a favorable outlook for most crops, though some areas that are already very wet could suffer flooding
• EAST ASIA: Hot and dry conditions are anticipated over Northeast China during June-August, a concerning outlook for corn

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH ARGENTINA, WHILE CENTRAL/SOUTH BRAZIL REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the Pampas, unfavorable to corn harvesting
• Wet weather in North and dry in South/Central Brazil

FORECAST

• Discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop into a Phase 8-2 event near the end of the 15-day forecast. The Antarctic Oscillation is likely to develop into a positive phase and will support dry weather across Southern Brazil. On EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has outperformed the GFS over the past month.
• Argentina/Paraguay: Cool temperatures (1 °C below normal) are expected across Central/North Argentina during the 15-day outlook. Wet spells (10-45 mm above normal) are expected across Central/North Argentina during the 15-day outlook. Wet weather may favor soybean development and delay corn harvesting across the Pampas belts.
• Brazil: Warm temperatures (2-4 °C above normal) will prevail across Brazil except North during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather (10-45 mm below normal) is expected across South/Center West/Southeast and wet weather (20-130 mm above normal) in North/Northeast Brazil during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather may favor 1st corn harvesting/2nd corn planting across the Center West Brazil. Dry weather may be a concern for coffee/soybean growth across Brazil’s belts.

 

Northern Plains: A system will push by to the south Thursday, but may only clip the far southern areas of the region with snow. Temperatures will rise again behind that system. With the warmth and lack of precipitation, drought continues to be an issue for much of the region, which may grow over the next week. The next best chance for precipitation occurs with a larger system late next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A system will move through Thursday and Friday with snow across the north. A secondary piece to the system will move through southern areas with showers on Saturday. Temperatures continue to waffle with the systems moving through, including rising over the weekend into early next week that could be significantly warm. Two more systems will move through next week, though only one late next week is forecast to produce significant precipitation.

Midwest: A smaller system will come through Thursday night and Friday with more scattered showers and potential for snow. Two more systems are forecast to move through next week and the second one for late next week and weekend could be another big one. Temperatures are in a roller coaster type of pattern as several systems move through. Between systems, temperatures will be quite warm, quickly melting snow.

Delta: Water levels started falling on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers late last week and weekend, but high soil moisture is still an issue. A big storm moved through with widespread moderate to heavy rain earlier this week, a smaller system will move through over the weekend, and a couple more systems are forecast for next week. That could ignite some more flooding over the next couple of weeks and keep water levels and soil moisture high, disrupting early planting.

 

The player sheet for 3/6 had funds: net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 27,500 corn, buyers of 13,500 soybeans, buyers of 8,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• US, CANADA WHEAT SALE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 98,200 metric tons of milling wheat from the United States and Canada in an international tender on Thursday.
• SOYBEAN OIL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 20,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 94,282 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late on Thursday.
• CORN TENDER: A Tunisian state grains purchasing agency has issued an international tender to buy 25,000 metric tons of corn, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for price offers is March 7.
• MILITARY GRAIN BUYER PUSHES UP PRICES: Egypt’s decision to shift its wheat import program to a military-affiliated entity around four months ago has been anything but smooth as local prices climb and stock levels fall.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is believed to be March 10. The agency will make a decision within 15 days of the tender closing
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice, traders said. Out of the total, about 33,300 tons should be sourced from the U.S. and the rest from China, Thailand and Vietnam. The deadline for submissions of offers in the tender is March 11.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY AUCTION: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by August 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction held on March 12.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 27, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 206k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 303k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 122k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 27, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 21.8k tons of the 42.4k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

China Jan.-Feb. Soybean Imports 13.606m Tons: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Edible vegetable oil imports in Jan.-Feb. 898,000 tons
• Rubber imports in Jan.-Feb. 1.424m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in Jan.-Feb. 1.098m tons
• Fertilizer exports in Jan.-Feb. 4.674m tons

 

China’s Jan-Feb soybean imports rise 4.4% but expected to slow

China’s soybean imports rose in the first two months of the year, as supplies from the United States booked before U.S. President Donald Trump took office arrived, but traders said they could drop in March.

Imports for January and February combined climbed 4.4% to 13.61 million metric tons, customs data showed, in line with market expectations. CNC-SOY-IMP

China combines data for January and February to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday, which may fall in either month in a given year.

Importers purchased larger-than-usual shipments of U.S. supply last year due to worries about the potential for renewed U.S.-China tensions to hit agriculture trade, but arrivals had been delayed due to slower customs clearance at Chinese ports.

High domestic crush rates and delays in Brazilian soybean shipments have tightened China’s oilseed supplies, leading to the market’s most severe supply squeeze in recent years and prompting many crushers to suspend operations through to April, traders said.

“Brazilian soybean shipments to China have been delayed and coupled with Chinese crushers operating with a relatively high soybean crush utilisation rate in recent months to meet soymeal demand, domestic soybean stocks have been falling,” said Cheang Kang Wei, assistant vice president at StoneX in Singapore.

The tightness has worsened with buyers avoiding U.S supplies due to an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing.

March imports are expected to be less than 6 million tons, said Wan Chengzhi, analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures. That compares with 5.54 million tons in March last year.

China this week slapped an additional 10% levy on U.S soybeans and blocked imports from three U.S firms in retaliation against Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods.

Beijing said on Wednesday it will expand the coverage of full-cost insurance and production income insurance for soybeans this year, and reduce the use of soybean meal in feed production.

 

Brazil Scraps Food Import Tariffs to Fight Inflation

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has decided to eliminate import tariffs on a series of basic food products in a bid to fight inflation that’s been hurting his popularity.

Beef, coffee, corn, sunflower oil, olive oil, sugar and pasta are among the items that will benefit from zero import tariffs, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin told reporters on Thursday. Current import duties vary according to the product — beef, for instance, is taxed at 10.8%.

Alckmin said the measures, which were approved by Lula, should come into effect in the next few days and will remain in place for as long as needed.

Lula’s popularity has been falling in recent opinion poll as recent spike in food prices jeopardize his key campaign promise to improve living standards for the the poor.

Brazil is the world’s biggest producer of coffee and sugar, and the second largest of beef. The country typically has lower food production costs than other farming nations, which makes imports less interesting even in a scenario of lower taxes.

The government wants to bolster public stocks of basic food items to help contain price increases at critical times, guaranteeing supply and stability, Alckmin said.

Brazil’s crop financing plan, a national credit program for farmers launched annually in June, will prioritize subsidies for the production of basic food items, offering lower interest rates farmers, according to the government.

 

Brazil braces for more Chinese demand, higher food prices amid US trade war

• Brazil likely to take more of China’s import market from US
• Higher export demand to drive up domestic food prices
• Food inflation already risen for five months in a row
• Govt under severe pressure, to meet industry leaders Thursday

U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China will give Brazilian agricultural exporters an opportunity to take an even bigger share of the Chinese market at the expense of American farmers, but it could also fuel already high food inflation in Brazil.

China this week retaliated swiftly to fresh U.S. duties announced by Trump, imposing hikes of 10% and 15% in levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural goods, including meat and soybeans.

Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of soy, cotton, beef and chicken meat, is expected to ship more to China as importers there seek tariff-free imports. During Trump’s first term, the trade war he triggered with China led to U.S. farmers losing a chunk of market share to Brazil, including for China’s valuable soybean imports.

The U.S. never regained that market share for soybeans. China continues to buy more of its agricultural imports from Brazil than it did before the first trade war, and that will likely accelerate again with the latest round of tariffs.

“Rising U.S.-China tensions are likely to prompt China to source more grains and proteins from Brazil, potentially lowering commodity demand and in turn prices in the U.S., while increasing demand and prices in Brazil,” Santander analysts said.

Prices for Brazilian soybeans are already on the rise. The premium at local ports hit a season high this week, said Eduardo Vanin, analyst with Agrinvest.

“Any additional demand from China could result in stronger exports from Brazil at healthier prices,” Itau BBA analysts said in a note to clients.

That would support Brazilian farm companies such as SLC Agricola SLCE3.SA and BrasilAgro AGRO3.SA. More exports would mean less domestic supply, however, and that would increase costs for grains to feed to animals for local meatpackers such as JBS JBSS3.SA and BRF BRFS3.SA.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 14.8 Million Metric Tns In March Versus 13.5 Million Tns In The Same Month Last Year – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.8 MILLION METRIC TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 13.5 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 1.8 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 337,635 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 140,561 TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR- ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 145,000 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 799,096 TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR- ANEC

 

Russia Signals It May Limit Grain Sales If Harvest Falters

Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, may consider limits on grain sales if the 2025 harvest is lower than forecast, Tass reported Friday.

The government “will promptly initiate the introduction of additional non-tariff measures” if bad weather leaves grain production below expectations, the news service said, citing a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

A dry spell last autumn threatened wheat planting for the crop that will be collected later this year. The 2024 harvest also was below recent peaks, tightening the country’s stockpiles. Russia typically enacts a wheat-export quota at the end of every season, which recently kicked in.

Crops now are emerging from winter dormancy, and favorable spring weather would aid production. Still, any signs of export restrictions stands to lift global wheat prices.

 

Malaysia to Take Immediate Steps to Stabilize Cooking Oil Supply

The Malaysian government will implement immediate intervention measures to stabilize the supply of bottled cooking oil sold in retail markets following reports of disruptions, according to Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Minister Armizan Mohd Ali.

• Decision follows special briefing between ministry and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as well as Second Finance Minister Amir Hamzah Azizan earlier Friday, said Armizan in a statement
  • A main cause of supply disruptions is increased production costs due to the jump in global prices of crude palm oil over the past two years
  • That has forced bottled cooking oil companies to reduce supply to control production costs, as they are tied to the government-imposed ceiling price
• Retail price for a five-kg bottle of cooking oil currently capped at 30.90 ringgit ($7) compared to the global market price of 36.16 ringgit
• Government is mulling providing special incentives to cooking oil packaging companies to ensure sufficient supply for domestic use
  • Ministry will instruct these companies to increase production to meet domestic demand
  • Ministry will also increase enforcement to prevent hoarding and misappropriation of cooking oil
• NOTE: Benchmark palm oil prices +3% to 4,614 ringgit/ton in Kuala Lumpur as of 5:14 p.m. Friday; +3.8% YTD

 

French Soft-Wheat Conditions Improve in Week to March 3: AgriMer

Some 74% of France’s soft-wheat crop was rated in good or very good condition as of March 3, a percentage point higher than the previous week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• The ratings are also better than the same time last year
• NOTE: Winter has seen warmer-than-usual temperatures, and February is significantly milder than normal, according to Meteo France. Rainfall this winter is also within normal levels

 

FAO Raises 2024-25 Grain Stocks Est; Sees ‘25-26 Wheat Output Up

Global grain stockpiles are now seen at 869.3m tons in the 2024-25 season, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

• That’s up 2.7m tons from a previous estimate, but lower than the previous season’s total of 885.8m tons
• Production estimates were also slightly raised, and are now seen at 2.84b tons
• 2025-26 season forecasts
• Global wheat production is seen at 796m tons, up 1% y/y
  • That’s due to increased European Union production
  • Production in the US and Russia seen lower
• Corn production expectations in Brazil are still seen positive, while dryness in Argentina has limited yield potential

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 422k tons in the week ending March 1 from 410k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 3.1% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 3.6% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.35 per short ton, a decline of $0.08 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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