Global Ag News for Mar 6.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Mexico Senate Approves Bill Against GMO Corn

With 97 votes in favor and 16 against in general voting, lawmakers in Mexico’s Senate approved a bill backed by President Claudia Sheinbaum banning GMO corn crops, according to a post on X late on Wednesday.

• Measure looks to protect native corn
• Under bill, Mexico will promote conditions for traditional crops with native seeds for the “optimal use of land free of genetically modified corn crops”, according to a separate press release from the Senate

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal up $3.40; Soyoil up 0.16.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil down 0.97.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.8% in SRW, down 3.0% in HRW, down 3.9% in HRS; Corn is down 3.5%; Soybeans up 0.6%; Soymeal down 4.0%; Soyoil up 7.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 37 yuan; Soymeal down 42; Soyoil up 20; Palm oil up 58; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 63.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 63 ringgit (+1.43%) at 4480.

 

There were changes in registrations (220 Soybeans, 100 Soyoil, -166 Soymeal). Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 223 Corn; 739 Soybeans; 1,330 Soyoil; 1,520 Soymeal; 405 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 5 were: SRW Wheat up 10,334 contracts, HRW Wheat up 10,069, Corn down 12,899, Soybeans up 6,539, Soymeal up 1,731, Soyoil down 466.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 05 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold risks are increasing for the U.S. in late March as an issue to monitor for wheat, though nothing extreme is indicated at this stage
• SOUTH AMERICA: There is no end in sight to dry conditions across most of Brazil, which will elevate downside drought risks to all developing crops
• AFRICA: Ivory Coast rains will increase toward near normal levels through mid-March in a favorable trend for early cocoa development, though more will still be needed to erase drought concerns
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Widespread, heavy rains through the next couple weeks over most palm oil regions of Indonesia/Malaysia will bring flooding risks in a negative outlook for the crop, especially in Kalimantan

 

MODERATING ARGENTINA RAINS IN THE FORECAST WILL OFFER LIMITED UPSIDE FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS

What to Watch:

• Temperatures will oscillate through the next couple weeks with a lean toward warmth in Argentina, while high rainfall will moderate to the benefit of corn/soybeans
• Hot and dry weather will persist over most of Brazil through mid-March, elevating downside drought risks to crops
• Paraguay will experience on and off warmth during the next 1-2 weeks, but rains will increase to near normal levels in a more favorable outlook for corn/soybeans

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights… Scattered showers. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers north Thursday-Friday, south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Friday.

Midwest: West: Scattered showers Thursday night-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. East: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Friday.

 

THE FORECAST OF A NEUTRAL ENSO PHASE FOR THIS SUMMER HAS SOLIDIFIED

What to Watch:

• La Niña conditions weakened considerably in the last month and the forecast of a neutral ENSO phase for June-August has solidified
• Risk of the exceptionally hot/dry summer exists for most of North America and NE China, as well as for crop areas in southern Australia
• The Black Sea area may finally observe a favorable season for the summer crops, but the threat of excessive rains in Western Europe rises

The player sheet for 3/5 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 6,500 soybeans, and buyers of 4,500 soymeal.

 

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 100,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday
• FEED WHEAT SALE: The TFMA group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased animal feed wheat in a tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT PURCASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 98,200 metric tons of milling wheat from the United States and Canada in an international tender on Thursday
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY AUCTION: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday that it will seek 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by August 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction held on March 12.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 100,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s MAFF is seeking to buy a total of 94,282 tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on March 6.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice, traders said. Out of the total, about 33,300 tons should be sourced from the U.S. and the rest from China, Thailand and Vietnam. The deadline for submissions of offers in the tender is March 11.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Feb. 27.

• Corn est. range 700k – 1,100k tons, with avg of 892k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 550k tons, with avg of 429k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1% to 27.289M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 27.557 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.093m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.072m

 

Trump Weighs Agriculture Carveouts to Canada, Mexico Tariffs

President Donald Trump is considering exempting certain agricultural products from tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, the latest move by the administration on Wednesday to offer relief to certain sectors from the sweeping new import taxes.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told Bloomberg News that “everything is on the table” and she is “hopeful” that the administration could decide on providing relief for the agricultural sector.

“As far as specific exemptions and carveouts for the agriculture industry, perhaps for potash and fertilizer, et cetera — to be determined,” Rollins said Wednesday at the White House. “We trust the president’s leadership on this. I know he is hyper focused on these communities.”

Rollins was at the White House to meet with Trump and other economic officials to deliberate a path forward. Earlier Wednesday, the Trump administration announced that they are delaying for one month tariffs on automotive imports from Mexico and Canada following pleas from industry executives for more leeway.

 

Celeres lowers forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop on hot, dry weather

Agribusiness consultancy Celeres reduced its estimate for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop due to adverse weather in some center-southern states, but still sees production at an all-time high, it said in a report on Wednesday.

Farmers in the South American country are expected to reap 171.6 million metric tons this year, Celeres said, down from a previous estimate of 174 million tons.

The consultancy attributed the downward revision to hot and dry weather in some key states such as Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul and Santa Catarina, which ended up affecting soybean fields.

Still, the bumper crop should be 11.1% higher than in 2023/24, when farmers grappled with lower yields related to adverse weather. Yields are seen rising 9% this season from the previous one, Celeres noted.

Celeres estimated that Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, will ship 107 million tons this year, up from 98.8 million in 2024, while local soybean crushing should rise to 56.5 million tons from 54 million last year.

Earlier this week, consultancy StoneX reduced its estimate for Brazil’s soybean output in 2024/25 by 1.5% to 168.3 million tons, citing dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul state.

“The record soybean crop, even if below its initial potential, tends to guarantee a comfortable domestic balance,” StoneX analyst Ana Luiza Lodi said in a report released on Monday.

 

Argentina soybean production slightly down as excessive moisture looms over southeastern Pampas

2024/25 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 49.5 [47.3–51.7] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Argentina soybean production is slightly (<1%) lowered to 49.5 [47.3–51.7] million tons amid recent heavy rains across the eastern/southern Pampas, which are causing more harm than good as the growing season gradually comes to an end. In February’s WASDE report (released on 11 February), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 49 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 52 million tons. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 49.6 and 47.5 million tons, respectively.

The southeastern half of the main Pampas region – most notably Entre Ríos, eastern Córdoba, northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe (where combined nearly 80% of the country’s total soybeans are grown) – received a series of very heavy rains over the past two weeks, totaling near 150 mm, up to 90 mm above normal. Some torrential downpours took place in the northwestern parts of Buenos Aires and areas to the east in particular, causing localized flood/water logging problems. A late season inundation/excessive moisture after the prolonged dryness during the crop’s prime growth period in January/February is causing more harm than good, with the harvest slowly on the horizon. Late season rains may not allow the plants to dry out, failing to prevent mold from moisture build-up while raising quality concerns. The overall harvest progress could get hindered as well should the wet weather continue in the key soybean producing aeras. Unfortunately, the latest short-term weather forecasts (GFS/EC) indicate a continuing trend of the dry north-wet south pattern across the Pampas at least through next week, warranting attention. Depending on the intensity of the upcoming precipitation pattern into late March, some harvest delays (albeit localized) might take place, but if offset by a fast pace in the unaffected areas, the national-level progress could stay on schedule.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices rise in February and return to levels from September/24

Wheat grain quotations upped in February, boosted by the low supply of high-quality product in the domestic market. In many regions surveyed by Cepea, average prices observed in February returned to levels verified in September/24.

Only some sellers were willing to sell off part of inventories during the month, while most of them were away from closing deals, expecting new price rises.

As for purchasers, many agents were willing to trade in February, while others were focused on imports. In this case, international purchases presented a lower performance compared to that in February/24, which can be related to high volumes that arrived in Brazil in months before.

In February, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,449.63 per ton, upping 2.9% against January/25 and 7.6% in relation to that in Feb/24, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,324.57/ton, 4.3% up in one month and +3.4% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.618.78/ton, +1.7% and +22.4% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,428.70/ton in August, for a decrease of 0.7% compared to January and downing 3.4% against that in the same month last year.

According to data from Cepea, between February 21 and 28, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 1.1% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1% in Paraná, but moved down 0.1% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 1.2% in São Paulo, but upped 1% in Paraná, 0.58% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.49% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations increased 3.1% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.905 on February 28.

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Exports May Fall 7% This Year on B40 Plan

Indonesia’s palm oil exports may fall 6.9% to 27.5m tons this year as stagnant production meets higher domestic consumption from the expanded biofuel program to B40, according to an industry group.

• Palm oil output may rise 1.7% to 53.6m tons this year, says M. Hadi Sugeng Wahyudiono, secretary general of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association known as Gapki
• Production may slightly rise due to favorable weather and better prices, he says
  • Crude palm oil production may rise to 49m tons this year, from 48.16m tons in 2024
• Domestic biodiesel consumption may jump 18.7% to 13.59m tons this year
• NOTE: Indonesia’s 2025 Palm Oil Output May Rise to 54.5M Tons (1)
• Raising biodiesel blending to 50% needs 17m-18m tons (equal to 19m-20m kl) of palm oil, says Ernest Gunawan, secretary general of the Indonesian Biofuel Producers Association
  • Domestic biodiesel output capacity needs to increase by 4m kl, from 19.6m kl currently, to implement the higher blending program

 

India’s Wheat Output Set to Stay Flat, Keeping Stockpiles Tight

India’s wheat production is expected to be little changed from a year ago, raising pressure on the government to scrap or cut an import duty to help replenish stockpiles that are at the lowest in more than a decade.

Output will likely be 106 million tons this year, according to the median of seven estimates in a Bloomberg survey of wheat processors, which would match the prior season. The forecast is slightly lower than the 110 million tons projected by the Rollers Flour Millers’ Federation of India.

The harvesting of early-sown grain has already started in some main growing regions in central India, but there are concerns that rising temperatures in the north of the nation will threaten yields of late-planted varieties, according to flour millers that attended an industry conference in Goa this week.

“Any late growth of wheat will certainly be stressed,” said Donald Keeney, a senior meteorologist at commercial forecaster Maxar Technologies. “Dryness is quite extensive across the region, and very little rain is expected over the next few weeks. Temperatures will be trending much warmer.”

India’s consumers are already grappling with more expensive wheat, with retail prices at the start of March almost 8% higher than a year ago. Any reduction to the harvest will make it difficult for the world’s most populous nation to boost stockpiles.

The government plans to buy 31 million tons of this year’s crop from farmers at a guaranteed price for its various welfare programs.

The world’s second-biggest wheat producer needs imports to ease concerns about low inventories, the president of the millers federation told reporters on the sidelines of the Goa conference, adding that 2 million to 3 million tons of inbound shipments at a reduced duty into the country’s south was possible.

Hotter-than-normal temperatures are expected in the coming months following the second-warmest February in more than a century, according to the nation’s weather agency. Authorities were forced to ban wheat exports in 2022 after the hottest March in more than 100 years crimped output.

There could still be some reprieve from the warmer weather. There have been cooler nights and a drop in maximum temperatures in parts of the northwest and central regions, said Gyanendra Singh, the former head of the state-run Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research. He added that about 85% of the area was planted with heat-tolerant grain varieties.

 

Russia’s wheat export forecast for this season lowered by 1.5 mln tonnes to 40.5 mln tonnes – Rusagrotrans

Wheat exports for this season (July 2024 – June 2025) are expected to total 40.5 million tonnes including shipments to Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, according to the Rusagrotrans analytical center, which provided the updated forecast to Interfax.

The previous projection was 42 million tonnes.

According to revised data, around 1.95 million tonnes of wheat were exported from Russia in February, marking the lowest level for this month in the past five years. “Exports in March will fall even further, as the volume of applications at deep-water ports, which typically account for around 80% of total exports, is less than 1 million tonnes,” the center said. “Total exports for this month are estimated at 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, the lowest level in four years.”

Analysts cited “sharply negative profitability for exporters amid persistently high domestic offer prices and a renewed decline in wheat quotations on the global market” as the main reasons for the drop.

“If the current pace continues, it is possible that total wheat exports for the season, including shipments to EAEU countries, could fall to 40-41 million tonnes. Within the framework of the export quota (which is in effect from February 15 to June 30), only 7 million tonnes, or 66% of the 10.6 million tonne quota, may actually be exported,” the center said.

At the same time, analysts noted that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the current season stands at 45.5 million tonnes.

“Even considering the high export potential of countries such as Australia and Argentina, replacing the 5-5.5 million tonnes missing from Russia’s exports will be challenging for the global market over the next four months [until the end of the season], especially given the sharp decline in the EU’s export potential,” the center said.

Overall, from July to February, Russia exported approximately 34.2 million tonnes of wheat.

 

Bioceres Secures US Patent Protection for HB4 Wheat Until 2042

Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. said it received notice of allowance from the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) for its HB4 wheat.

• “This approval is the first of four potential patents the company is pursuing for HB4 wheat in the United States, securing protection for this technology and associated production system until 2042:” Bioceres
  • HB4 wheat offers improved tolerance to drought and enhanced weed management options compared to conventional wheat
• Technology has already been approved by the USDA for cultivation and by the FDA for food and feed use in the US: Bioceres
• Company said it will adhere to the US Wheat Associates’ (USW) “Wheat Industry Principles for Biotechnology Commercialization” developed with the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG)

 

Chinese researchers develop large-scale integrated transcriptomic atlas for soybeans

Chinese researchers have constructed a comprehensive integrated transcriptomic atlas for soybeans, the first spatio-temporal map of the whole-life organ development of the domestic soybean, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) on Thursday.

Molecular design breeding can effectively accelerate the soybean breeding process. However, the complex mechanisms of organ development in soybeans have long proved difficult challenges for scientists to effectively shed light on.

Regarding each organ of the soybean as a precisely operating “factory,” genes run like “workers” on assembly lines, while the transcriptomic atlas acts as the factory’s monitoring system.

In previous research, scientists could usually only observe the overall output of this “factory.” However, new technology can now help them track the condition of each “worker.”

Based on the bulk RNA-seq data from 314 whole-organ samples, the researchers from the CAS and the Chinese Society for Plant Biology precisely identified the developmental stages of organs and the characteristic genes of key organs.

 

 

 

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