Global Ag News for Mar 5.2025

TOP HEADLINES

CME to Capitalize on Green Diesel Boom With New Soy Oil Futures

• Futures exchange to launch soybean oilshare contracts March 31
• New trading products stem from growing demand for soy oil

CME Group Inc. will launch soybean oilshare futures and options contracts as the world’s largest futures exchange tries to simplify the way traders manage risk amid surging demand for biofuels.

The new contracts, which are pending US regulatory review, will be cash settled and underpinned by CME’s soybean oilshare index starting March 31. The index represents the ratio of soy oil prices to that of soy meal. Traders trying to take advantage of the spread between the two will be able to use the contracts to mitigate risk tied to soy production and processing, Chicago-based CME said.

“The new soybean oilshare futures and options will allow market participants to express a view on the relative value of oil to meal in a single trade,” John Ricci, CME managing director and global head of agricultural products said via email.

The new products follow a flurry of investment in recent years in lower carbon fuels like renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel. That’s caused a rush on soy oil as more petroleum oil refiners move into the biofuel space to take advantage of government incentives. Soy oil was at one time an afterthought in the crush value, but that’s changed as companies compete to secure a steady supply for fuel production.

The soybean oilshare contracts could potentially serve as an approximation for biofuel demand, with soybean oil being the primary input to biodiesel and renewable diesel in the US.

The soybean oilshare futures and options will be listed by and subject to Chicago Board of Trade rules.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 0.30.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 in SRW, down 18 3/4 in HRW, down 14 in HRS; Corn is down 13 1/4; Soybeans down 20 1/2; Soymeal down $3.70; Soyoil down 0.87.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.0% in SRW, down 4.5% in HRW, down 5.2% in HRS; Corn is down 4.2%; Soybeans down 0.7%; Soymeal down 6.4%; Soyoil up 7.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 41 yuan; Soymeal down 58; Soyoil down 90; Palm oil down 118; Corn down 22 — Malaysian Palm is up 68.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 68 ringgit (+1.56%) at 4417.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 223 Corn; 519 Soybeans; 1,230 Soyoil; 1,686 Soymeal; 405 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 4 were: SRW Wheat up 9,690 contracts, HRW Wheat up 10,856, Corn down 13,760, Soybeans up 10,628, Soymeal down 1,284, Soyoil up 4,522.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 04 March 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A strong cyclone will bring a round of rains to most U.S. winter wheat regions through tomorrow, but more will still be needed in order to recover from a dry winter as wheat enters development
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heat risks will flicker along the Argentina Pampas, but will generally prevail through the balance of March to the detriment of late corn/soybean development
• AFRICA: Increasingly cool/wet weather will overspread South Africa through mid-March, which could provide a boost to the grain fill stage for maize
• AUSTRALIA: Tropical Storm Alfred will hit coastal Queensland and New South Wales with up to 14 inches of flooding rains in a couple days, which will cause extensive damage to the region

Wet conditions across the U.S. will favor winter wheat

• Very active rainfall pattern in the coming days and late next week may considerably reduce soil moisture deficits in the SRW wheat areas
• Warmth is likely to dominate over the Plains and Midwest through most of March

  

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE FOR 04 MARCH 2025

• Very heavy rainfall to persist this week across Argentina
• Warm and dry weather across Brazil

 

Northern Plains: A system is pushing by to the south, but will be close enough to bring through some limited precipitation on Tuesday. Temperatures may dip a bit behind the system, but still be mild. Another system will push by to the south late this week, but may only clip the far southern areas of the region with snow. Temperatures will rise again behind that system. With the warmth and lack of precipitation, drought continues to be an issue for much of the region, which may grow this week.

Central/Southern Plains: A big spring storms is moving through on Tuesday with widespread precipitation, severe weather across the south, heavy snow across the north, and strong winds that could make for blizzard conditions. Another system will move through Thursday and Friday with snow across the north. A secondary piece to the system will move through southern areas with showers on Saturday. Temperatures will likely waffle around quite a bit this week and next with the systems moving through, including rising over the weekend into early next week that could be significantly warm.

Midwest: A strong spring storm will move through Tuesday and Wednesday that will bring widespread precipitation, heavy northwestern snow, and strong winds that may make for blizzard conditions. A smaller system will follow it for Thursday night and Friday with more scattered showers and potential for snow. Temperatures are in a roller coaster type of pattern as several spring storm systems keep lining up to move through here in March.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels started falling on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers late last week and weekend and many areas are free of flooding outside of some smaller areas. However, a very active weather pattern with strong storm systems and potential for heavy rain could ignite some more flooding over the next couple of weeks.

 

The player sheet for 3/4 had funds: net sellers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHITE WHEAT SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 130,000 metric tons of U.S. white wheat to South Korea for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• SOYBEAN OIL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 20,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 94,282 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on March 6.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday that it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by August 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction held on March 12.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 metric tonnes of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Feb. 28 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.072m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 27.557m bbl vs 27.571m a week ago

 

EU’s Soft Wheat Exports Drop 37% Y/y During Season to March 2

EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 13.9m tons as of March 2, compared with 22m tons for the same period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 2.07m tons, Morocco with 1.60m tons, and both the UK and Algeria with a bit more than 1m tons each
• Barley exports were 3.16m tons, down 22% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 13.8m tons, up 8% y/y

 

Russia to increase 2025 sown area by 1 mln hectares to 84 mln hectares, Agriculture Minister says

Russia plans to increase its sown area to 84 million hectares in 2025, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Tuesday, an increase of 1 million hectares from 2024.

Of that area, 55.8 million hectares are planned to be sown with spring crops, Lut said.

The Agriculture Ministry has seen an improvement in the quality of winter crops, Lut said, adding that currently 87% are in good or satisfactory condition.

At the end of January, 82% of winter crops were in good or satisfactory condition.

 

Russian wheat production unchanged, despite cold temperatures

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 79.6 [78.0-83.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent weather conditions keep 2025/26 Russian wheat production at 79.6 [78.0-83.6] million tons (MMT), 54.6 MMT of winter wheat and 25.0 MMT of spring wheat.

The past two weeks featured cold snaps in Southern and North Caucasian Districts. Colder temperatures (-20 °C) were accompanied by snow precipitation, which gave sufficient layer of snow protecting crops from low temperatures. But soil moisture levels in Southern, Central, Volga, and North Caucasian districts are at their 6-year low, which sets a negative bias for lower winter wheat yield.

According to the latest weather forecast, warmer temperatures will be in store for the next two weeks with minimal precipitation. The long-term weather outlook for March suggests dry conditions across the main winter wheat regions. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather conditions in the upcoming weeks and update our forecast accordingly. Our estimate does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

 

China to expand insurance for soybean planting, lower use in animal feed

China said on Wednesday it will expand the coverage of full-cost insurance and production income insurance for soybeans, and reduce the use of soybean meal in feed production.

It will also refine the grain pricing mechanism and implement the minimum purchase price policy for rice and wheat, according to an official report published on Wednesday.

 

China Raises Grain Output Target as Trade Tensions Escalate

China set its annual grain production target for 2025 higher than the previous year, as the world’s biggest agricultural importer continues to bolster food security amid a trade war with the US.

The country aims to produce about 700 million tons of grain this year, higher than a goal of at least 650 million tons in recent years, according to a copy of the government’s annual work report seen by Bloomberg News.

The target was revealed as the National People’s Congress convened for its annual gathering, and comes as trade tensions rise between China and the US, a major grain supplier to the Asian country.

Beijing said on Tuesday it will impose 10-15% additional duties on American crops including soybeans, corn and wheat, in retaliation to new tariffs from US President Donald Trump. It has also suspended soybean imports from three US entities and inward shipments of American timber.

“All localities must shoulder their share of responsibility for ensuring China’s food security, and make concerted efforts to have a firmer grip on the rice bowl,” said Chinese Premier Li Qiang, during the opening session of the NPC.

China will keep grain acreage stable and focus on improving crop yield and quality. It will build on the recent increase in soybean planting, and explore expanding cultivation of other oilseed crops, Li said. It will also advance construction of storage facilities for grain, cotton, sugar, meat, and fertilizers.

The country will also strengthen management of hog production capacity and pork reserves, and help develop the cattle industry, the National Development and Reform Commission said in the report.

The Asian nation has sought to boost production of domestic soybeans and other oilseeds, to cut reliance on foreign, especially American, supplies, after the Sino-US trade war during Trump’s first term entangled the crop and slashed US sales. As part of the same push, China said it will also continue to cut soymeal use and seek alternatives to replace the protein ingredient in feed, the country’s state planner said in a separate report on Wednesday, reiterating an initiative launched before.

China produced 706.5 million tons of grain in 2024, up 1.6% from the previous year. Domestic prices are near multi-year lows on ample supplies and weak demand, prompting the government to limit imports from overseas to protect farmers’ profits.

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Rises in February: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 152 points in Feb. from 141 in Jan., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component improved by 28 points from Jan.
• Future expectations up by 3 points

 

Georgia to Resume Poultry Exports With State Now Bird-Flu Free

Georgia is now free of bird flu, a designation that allows the state to resume exporting poultry products, according to a Tuesday statement from state agriculture commissioner Tyler Harper.

• That means the disease has been eliminated on all affected farms and no new infections have been detected within at least 28 days
  • The designation is “not an ‘all clear’ or an indication that the risk of the disease is over”
• Two positive bird flu cases had been reported in January in commercial poultry operations in Elbert County
  • That marked the first confirmed bird flu case in a commercial poultry operation in the state since the national outbreak began in 2022
  • 205k birds in three commercial flocks have been affected in Georgia since the ongoing outbreak began, according to the statement

 

 

 

 

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