Global Ag News for Mar 3.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China May Hit US Crops in Tariff Response, Global Times Says

• Soymeal prices in Dalian jump most in more than three weeks
• President Trump pledged to double the levy on China to 20%

China is considering retaliatory measures on US agriculture and food products in response to tariffs from the Trump administration that are scheduled to take effect on Tuesday, according to the Global Times.

The response from Beijing will likely include tariffs and non-tariff measures, the Communist Party-backed news outlet reported on Monday, citing a person it didn’t identify. The Global Times, which didn’t provide specific details, is occasionally used to signal China’s positions to the outside world.

The threat of an escalating trade war drove prices of Chinese soymeal — used in food and animal feed — almost 3% higher, the most in more than three weeks. A disruption to US soybean shipments could tighten the market further.

President Donald Trump has pledged to double the levy on China to 20%, while also hitting Canada and Mexico with broad tariffs on March 4. The Asian nation is the world’s biggest importer of soybeans, which are typically crushed into cooking oil and animal feed, particularly for the country’s large pig herd.

Earlier last month, China retaliated to Trump’s initial tariffs with levies on a range of US products including metals, liquefied natural gas, and agriculture machinery, but refrained from imposing duties on crops themselves.

China’s soymeal market has tightened this year as commercial crushers avoided booking US soybeans on trade concerns, while Chinese customs delayed the clearance of some cargoes as authorities seek to bolster the local industry.

Beijing imposed hefty tariffs on a list of US farm products including soybeans during Trump’s first term as president in response to his levies, leading to sales of American soybeans to China plunging almost 80% over a two-year period. The Asian nation has since moved to buy more from Brazil.

Still, the US remains a major source of grain for China including wheat and corn. On Friday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said the nation will “counter with all necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights and interests” in response to the incoming tariffs.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil up 0.16.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 36 1/2 in SRW, down 36 1/2 in HRW, down 36 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 30 3/4; Soybeans down 23 3/4; Soymeal down $1.20; Soyoil down 2.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.4% in SRW, up 0.9% in HRW, down 1.3% in HRS; Corn is down 1.8%; Soybeans up 1.3%; Soymeal down 4.6%; Soyoil up 9.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 15 yuan; Soymeal up 42; Soyoil up 8; Palm oil down 4; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 71.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 71 ringgit (-1.56%) at 4483.

There were changes in registrations (220 Corn, 220 Soybeans). Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 223 Corn; 299 Soybeans; 1,230 Soyoil; 1,812 Soymeal; 405 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 28 were: SRW Wheat up 477 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,634, Corn up 1,065, Soybeans up 14,265, Soymeal up 653, Soyoil up 4,073.

 

HISTORIC DROUGHT WILL INTENSIFY OVER PORTIONS OF BRAZIL THROUGH MID-MARCH

What to Watch:

• Heavy, widespread rains will combine with heat risks in the next 7-10 days along the Argentina Pampas, and could be reinforced during mid-March with mixed impacts on crops
• Hot and dry weather will persist over Southeast Brazil into the foreseeable future, elevating downside risks to coffee as historic drought levels intensify
• Paraguay will experience a cooling trend after initial heat risks during the next couple weeks, combined with favorably high rainfall for corn/soybeans

FORECAST

DISCUSSION: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop through a Phase 1-2 event in mid-March before weakening. This will support the potential for Argentina heat risks and another round of rains there, while Brazil could experience reinforcing dryness in a couple weeks. On numerical model performance, the GFS has recently outperformed the EC in South America. Therefore, the GFS is the preferred forecast model. Numerical model performance has been improving of late, making for a high confidence 15-day outlook.

ARGENTINA/PARAGUAY: Short-term heat risks and heavy rains will impact Argentina within the next couple weeks, while Paraguay will receive more moderate rainfall. Temperatures through 5 days will be 3-7 °C above normal spanning both countries, with the most intense anomalies in northern Argentina. Heat risks will then become confined to northern Argentina and Paraguay during the 6-10 day forecast before fading away entirely by the 11-15 day period. 15-day rainfall totals will be 50-150 mm (~2-6 in) wetter than normal over the Argentina Pampas and in Paraguay, with the heaviest totals and flooding impacts focused on the Pampas. Only a small area of northern Argentina will be slightly dry into mid-March. At that time, there are indications for another round of heat risks and high rainfall both to impact Argentina again as an item to monitor in the days ahead. Despite hot conditions in the forecast, upcoming rains will benefit late corn/soybean development in Argentina, with a greater impact on soybeans at this late stage. However, flooding will also be a problem given the rainfall totals in the forecast, which could offset some of the positive impacts. In Paraguay, more modest rains will be favorable for crops, but the season has still been a dry one on balance which limits upside.

BRAZIL: Hot and dry weather will become increasingly focused on Southeast Brazil into mid-March, while some other areas will moderate. Temperatures will be 3-7 °C above normal through the next 10 days over South/Southeast Brazil, while areas to the north/west will average out near normal instead. A moderating trend will then arrive in the South region by the 11-15 day forecast, while heat risks will persist in Southeast Brazil. 15-day rainfall totals will be 25-75 mm (~1-3 in) drier than normal in the Southeast region, while the rest of Brazil will receive near normal totals. Dry conditions are then likely to be reinforced in the middle of the month, offering no relief for areas struggling with historic drought conditions (see figure below). This outlook will elevate downside risks to coffee in Southeast Brazil, while crops in other areas will be less impacted by generally moderate weather, even though drought risks exist for other portions of Brazil as well.

 

Northern Plains: It was warm and dry over the weekend. A system will push by to the south, but will be close enough to bring through some limited precipitation on Tuesday. Temperatures may dip a bit behind the system, but still be mild. Another system will push by to the south late this week, but is not likely to bring precipitation through. Temperatures will rise again behind that system. With the warmth and lack of precipitation, drought continues to be an issue for much of the region, which may grow this week.

Central/Southern Plains: The weekend was warm and a small disturbance moved in on Sunday that brought through some scattered showers and thunderstorms, important for some areas in the southwest that have recently been very dry. A bigger system will move through Monday and Tuesday with widespread precipitation, potential for some heavy snow across the north, and strong winds. Another system will move through later in the week with scattered showers and strong winds as well. Temperatures will likely waffle around quite a bit this week with the systems moving through, including rising over the weekend into early next week that could be significantly warm.

Midwest: Temperatures fell over the weekend but that will be brief as the rise quickly early this week. That is ahead of a strong system that will move through Tuesday and Wednesday that will bring widespread precipitation, northwestern snow that could be heavy, and strong winds. A smaller system will follow it for later this week with more scattered showers and potential for snow. Temperatures are in a roller coaster type of pattern as several spring storm systems keep lining up to move through here in March.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels started falling late last week and weekend and many areas are free of flooding outside of some smaller areas. However, a very active weather pattern with strong storm systems and potential for heavy rain could ignite some more flooding over the next couple of weeks.

Europe: Scattered showers went through southern areas over the weekend, favorable for vegetative winter wheat and other grains in Spain, Italy, and parts of southeastern Europe. Showers will continue in Spain most of this week while other areas will be drier, favorable in the northwest, but not for portions of the east that are still too dry. A system will move through the continent this weekend into next week that is forecast to spread showers through much of the winter wheat growing areas.

Black Sea: Cold air and a lack of significant snow cover have been an issue over the last couple of weeks, but temperatures will flip this week and be very warm, encouraging green-up in southern locations. However, soils are very dry in these areas and would be unfavorable for this to occur. The storm track will be across the north this week, favoring some areas of Belarus and northwestern Russia, but with only light amounts forecast in most areas. There appears to be a better chance for meaningful rain next week.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 28 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 27,500 corn, sellers of 10,000 soybeans, sellers of 7,000 soymeal, and sellers of 8,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender
• SOFT WHEAT SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 25,000 metric tons of soft wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Friday.
• FEED WHEAT SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender on Friday.
• SOYOIL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 20,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA January soy crush seen at 211.1 million bushels, analysts say

The U.S. soybean crush likely slowed in January from a record high in the prior month to 6.333 million short tons, or 211.1 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Monday.

If the average of eight analyst estimates is realized, it would be down 3% from the 217.7 million bushels crushed in December but up 8.4% from the January 2024 crush of 194.8 million bushels.

U.S. soybean processors have increased crush capacity over recent years as several new plants have come online and others have expanded to capitalize on rising demand for vegetable oils to make biofuel.

But the processing pace in January was hampered by harsh winter weather and snowfall in some southern states that reduced crush plant efficiency and disrupted shipments of incoming soybeans and outgoing soy products, analysts said.

Some plants also ran less aggressively amid a glut of soymeal, they said.

Crush estimates for January ranged from 209 million to 212.5 million bushels, with a median of 210.9 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CST (2000 GMT) on Monday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of January 31 were estimated at 1.761 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from five analysts.

The oil stocks estimate, if realized, reflects a 3.8% increase from supplies totaling 1.696 billion pounds at the end of December but a 13.2% drop from January 2024 stocks of 2.029 billion pounds.

Estimates ranged from 1.725 billion to 1.802 billion pounds, with a median of 1.750 billion pounds.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 200.383 million bushels in January, while end-of-month oil stocks rose to 1.274 billion pounds.

 

EU still on course for bigger oilseed crop this year, Strategie Grains says

The European Union is still on track for a rebound in oilseed production this year as rapeseed crop conditions remain favourable, Strategie Grains said on Friday as it kept monthly harvest forecasts almost unchanged.

For rapeseed, the EU’s main oilseed, the consultancy held its forecast of 2025/26 production at 19.0 million metric tons, up 13% from 2024/25.

Projected sunflower seed output was nudged up to 10.5 million tons from 10.4 million a month ago, still 25% above the previous crop. Expected soybean production was kept at 3.2 million tons, nearly 7% up on the year.

“Growing conditions have been generally good over the past month for rapeseed crops in the EU,” Strategie Grains said in an oilseed report, adding that a rainfall deficit in eastern EU countries would have to be monitored.

Rapeseed crops, mostly sown in late summer and autumn in Europe, are emerging from winter. Sunflower and soybean crops are planted during spring.

Severe weather including torrential rain and heatwaves hurt EU oilseed crops last year, tightening supply for rapeseed and sunflower seed.

“As a result, we expect a further upward potential for the prices of both seeds by the end of the (2024/25) marketing year,” Strategie Grains said.

Improved harvests were projected to boost availability next season, particularly in sunflower seed, but low seed and oil stocks would limit supply recovery in rapeseed, it added.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Demand increases; prices move up in Brazil

Cepea, 28 – Soy prices have increased this week in Brazil, influenced by the firm domestic demand.

Although a good volume has been harvested in South America, concerns about the productivity of crops that will still be harvested, the increase of logistics costs and the USDA indication about a possible smaller soy area in the United States helped sustaining quotations in Brazil.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 1.5% between February 20 and 27, closing at BRL 127.33 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 27. From January to February (until Feb. 27), however, the Index dropped 3%, and the current average is at BRL 125.10/bag, the lowest since February/24, in real terms (IGP-DI Jan/25).

From February 20-27, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 2.6%, to close at BRL 134.55 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 27. The average in February is at BRL 131.42/bag, downing 2.4% compared to that observed in the first month of 2025.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.8% from Feb. 20-27 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

 

CORN/CEPEA: Price Index returns to BRL 87/bag; values rise 17% in February

Cepea, 28 – Corn prices continue to move up steeply in most regions surveyed by Cepea. This week, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) closed again above BRL 87.00 per 60-kilo bag. Recent price rises are related to the high interest from purchasers in the spot market, logistic issues and low domestic stocks.

More significant increases have been verified since mid-February, when the demand increased at the same time that sellers reduced the supply. Producers have started to prioritize the delivery of batches traded before, specially soybean, since its supply is higher, due to the progress of the harvesting. Moreover, purchasers have been facing low availability of freight. Thus, they have boosted purchasing prices, especially if batches are closer to the consumption unit.

Concerning stocks, the volume is low, and not even the progress of the summer crop harvesting has been increasing the availability. Conab says that ending stocks by late January/25 was at only 2.1 million tons, 70% down compared to that in the year before (7.2 million tons).

The summer crop is likely to reach 23.6 million tons – data from Conab. Therefore, initial stocks added to the summer crop output may account for only 30% of the total domestic consumption in 2025, of roughly 87 million tons. The low availability has been concerning players about trades in the short-term.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose steeply 4.9% between February 20 and 27, closing at BRL 87.68 per 60-kilo bag on Feb. 27. In the accumulated of the month, the increase is at 17%.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from February 20-27, corn values increased 3.4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 3.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

 

China Vows to Prevent Sharp Fluctuations in Grain Prices

China stresses work on grain storage and pledges to prevent large fluctuations in prices, National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration Chief Liu Huanxin says in a symposium Friday.

• To promote the development of private grain enterprises

 

Brazil Mulls Lowering Corn Ethanol Import Tax: Globo

Brazil is studying reducing the import tax for corn-based ethanol fuel, local newspaper O Globo reported citing people familiar with the talks.

• Measure would be aimed at soothing relations with the US and tackling the drop in popularity of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
• Nothing has been decided and everything is on the table, said the report
• Topic will be discussed with private sector representatives in a meeting in the coming days: Globo

 

Brazil Politics: Lula Considers Measures to Curb Food Inflation

Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro is asking food producers to come up with proposals to contain additional price increases that have hurt President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s popularity, O Globo reported.

During a series of meetings with business leaders on Thursday, Favaro assured there will be no tax on exports of agricultural products, according to the report.

The government has held internal discussions about the possibility of limiting food exports, but gave up on the idea due to its negative repercussion, Valor Economico said.

Measures

Lula will receive Favaro on Friday and the measures will be decided by the government after the Carnival holiday, O Estado de S. Paulo reported, without saying how it obtained the information.

 

South Africa’s Agricultural Exports Hit Record in 2024

• The sector has expand export trade for six consecutive years
• Exports of crops including citrus rose 3% to $13.7 billion

South African agricultural exports rose 3% to a record $13.7 billion last year led by shipments of citrus fruit and grapes, an industry body said.

The increase is the sixth consecutive annual expansion of the sector’s export trade as the country seeks to open up new markets for its produce, a report released on Monday by the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa showed.

Other African countries accounted for 44% of the trade, Asia and the Middle East 21% and the European Union 19%, the organization known as Agbiz said. The US received 4% of shipments.

Still, agricultural imports jumped 8% to $7.6 billion because of higher prices of some of the commodities it brings into the country such as wheat, palm oil and rice, the group said. That meant the agricultural trade surplus shrank 2% to $6.2 billion from the year earlier.

 

Russia doubles rapeseed oil exports to over 170,000 tonnes in Jan – Agroexport

Russia exported more than 170,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil in January, which was twice as much as in the same month last year, Agroexport Center reported, citing expert estimates.

The largest market was China, which accounted for 91% of these exports. Latvia was a distant second with 6% and Norway was third with 2%.

China imported $1.088 billion worth of rapeseed oil from Russia in 2024, compared to $1.494 billion in 2023, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

Russia’s rapeseed harvest rose to 4.7 million tonnes in 2024 from 4.2 million tonnes in 2023, the Federal Statistics Service said.

 

India to Witness Above-Normal Heat Wave Days Until May: IMD

Most parts of India are forecast to see above-normal heat wave days in the three months ending on May 31, according to the India Meteorological Department.

• Heat waves are likely in central, northwestern and eastern regions, as well as in parts of southern peninsula, next month, D.S. Pai, a senior scientist at the weather bureau, said in an online press conference
• The country witnessed the second-warmest February since 1901, he said on Friday

 

US Farmers to Get First of $30 Billion Tranche for Downturn

American farmers will soon start receiving the first tranche of $30 billion in funding approved by Congress to fight a downturn in the markets, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

Speaking at the Commodity Classic event in Denver, Rollins said that the initial $10 billion in assistance should start moving in the next few weeks, adding that she asked her team to “think creatively” about how to make the application process for the funds to move quicker.

Farm income has been under pressure for the last three years after crop prices declined, while the cost of seeds, fertilizer and equipment kept going up. The US, known for being a global agriculture powerhouse, is also losing share in overseas markets and has never imported so much food.

“The state of the ag economy, especially for row-crop producers, is perhaps the worst it’s been in 100 years,” Rollins said on Sunday. “The last thing we want to be is the bottleneck to get the funds that are so desperately needed.”

The agency has completed a review of programs including the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and the Conservation Stewardship Program, and will be releasing funds to all who participated in the programs, she added.

During a press conference earlier on Sunday, Rollins said she has a strong relationship with new Health and Human Services Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime critic of pesticides and vaccines.

“Perhaps I can spend a little time making sure that he understands that some of the things maybe that he has been told, or believed, or has read isn’t entirely accurate,” Rollins said. Pesticides and other crop inputs help “ensure that we are able to continue to feed America and, frankly, to feed the world,” she added.

 

US EPA will delay Midwest ethanol expansion in South Dakota, Ohio

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday it would delay an action by one year to expand sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline in South Dakota and Ohio, two of eight Midwestern states that requested the agency approve increased sales of the product.

The EPA’s statement on Friday follows its decision last week to uphold an April 28 implementation date for the request from eight Midwest governors to allow year-round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, a blend known as E15. States had until February 26 to seek a one-year delay.

The EPA’s implementation will now only apply to Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Wisconsin – after South Dakota and Ohio opted for the delay.

The EPA’s expansion is meant to enable both E15 and the more widely available E10 fuel blends to be sold during the summer, where the existing policy often keeps E15 out of the market.

While biofuel producers have long wanted expanded sales of the E15 blend, they would prefer a nationwide solution that goes beyond just the Midwest region.

The oil trade group the American Petroleum Institute also prefers a nationwide policy, as some industry players worry a fragmented market could lead to localized supply disruptions.

Kansas, which was not among the eight states addressed in the final rule, had submitted a similar request to Ohio and South Dakota’s petition for a one-year delay, the EPA said on Friday.

“Earlier this month, (Kansas Governor Laura Kelly) expressed continued interest in a temporary Gasoline Volatility Waiver for the upcoming summer months as she has in previous years,” Kelly’s spokesperson Grace Hoge told Reuters.

“While Kansas did not request to be included in recent actions taken by other Midwest states, Governor Kelly remains committed to addressing this critical issue and will continue advocating for a federal solution that empowers consumers with the freedom to select their preferred fuel type.”

 

Mexico Weighing Price Agreement for Coffee, Cacao, Corn Farmers

Mexico is studying a price-fixing agreement for coffee, cacao and corn farmers, President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a press briefing Friday.

• “As we did with the voluntary agreement with gas stations, in the same way we’re working with those who purchase coffee and those who produce it to establish a fair price. Not only for coffee, it’s being done for cacao and corn too”
• NOTE: Sheinbaum to Sign a Six-Month Cap to Gasoline at MXN24/L
• Sheinbaum said Friday she hopes the agreement to cap gasoline prices at 24 pesos per liter could be renewed for another six months when it expires

 

LIVESTOCK: USDA Cattle and Hog Slaughter Estimates

The following is for week ending Saturday, March 1:

• Cattle slaughter estimate at 566k, down 4.8% from a year ago
• Hog slaughter at 2.538m, down 0.5% y/y

 

US Weekly Beef and Pork Production Estimates: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 494m pounds for the week ending March 1 from 496m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 0.5% from a week ago to 566m head
• Pork production up 0.5% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.6%
• For the year, beef production is 3.1% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 4.7% below

 

 

 

 

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