Global Ag News for Mar 13.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Canada to Plant Less Canola as Trade Disputes Roil Farm Markets

Canada’s farmers will plant fewer acres of canola this year with demand under threat by tariffs from the two biggest importers, China and the US.

Still, even with a downturn in sowings, prices for the oilseed continued to plunge Wednesday as escalating trade disputes raised world-demand concerns from corn and soybeans to rice and beef.

Canola planting will decline 1.7% to 21.6 million acres, according to Statistics Canada’s first spring outlook. That’s just below analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey for 21.7 million acres and 22 million last year.

Farmers were already shifting from canola even before China’s weekend move to impose tariffs on Canadian meal and oil. US President Donald Trump has promised reciprocal tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico by April 2. Meanwhile, the crop was given unfavorable carbon-scoring in new US biofuels guidance known as 45Z.

“Canola was messy to begin with given its exclusion from 45Z,” said No Bull Inc. analyst Susan Stroud. “Now with the tariff mess, canola crushers are at risk of losing their largest market for both oil and meal.”

Canola futures slumped by as much as 3.6%, bringing the week’s declines to 11%.

Canada, EU Retaliation

Other crop markets were also easing on uncertain demand prospects. Corn futures in Chicago dropped by as much as 3% and soybeans by 1.7%.

The European Union earlier announced countermeasures over US metal duties, including targeting soybeans from Louisiana, where a majority of American supplies are shipped out for export. The EU will also hit beef from Nebraska and Kansas.

At the same time, Canada unveiled tariffs on $21 billion of US goods to counter levies on steel and aluminum.

The Trump administration also pointed to Japan’s tariffs on rice imports, suggesting the grain will likely be targeted in the coming weeks. Rough rice futures eased as much as 1.7%.

“The tariffs have become an off-again, on-again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time,” said Jack Scoville, vice president of brokerage Price Futures Group in Chicago.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 in SRW, up 5 1/2 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $4.60; Soyoil up 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 13 1/2 in HRW, up 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans down 17 1/2; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 1.74.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 1/4 in SRW, up 5 1/2 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans down 17 3/4; Soymeal up $4.60; Soyoil down 2.34.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.3% in SRW, up 0.4% in HRW, down 2.6% in HRS; Corn is down 1.9%; Soybeans down 1.1%; Soymeal down 4.4%; Soyoil up 3.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 43 yuan; Soymeal up 15; Soyoil up 52; Palm oil up 46; Corn down 18 — Malaysian Palm is up 52.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 52 ringgit (+1.16%) at 4539.

 

There were changes in registrations (21 Soybeans, -1 Soymeal, -3 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,021 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 12 were: SRW Wheat up 7,008 contracts, HRW Wheat down 663, Corn up 15,903, Soybeans up 4,462, Soymeal up 6,445, Soyoil up 4,805.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 12 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth remains expected across much of the U.S. during the next two weeks, barring cool weather in the Western U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: A mixed precipitation pattern will bring wet weather to localized parts of Southeast Brazil, while dry weather prevails elsewhere
• SOUTH ASIA: Widespread warmth between 1-4 °C above normal is expected across much of India during the next 10+ days
• AFRICA: Widespread heavy rainfall between 25-75 mm above normal is expected across South Africa during the next 10 days, which should favor maize crops throughout

 

DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL IN MUCH OF SOUTH AMERICA

What to Watch

• Warm and dry weather in much of Brazil
• Dry conditions to prevail in Argentina

 

Northern Plains: It continues to be quiet and warm, but a system that moves through on Friday is forecast to bring scattered showers and snow, and the snow may be heavy in the eastern Dakotas. Strong winds could create blizzard conditions. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture. Much more is needed, however. Southeastern areas will get a shot at more precipitation from another big storm in the middle of next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Drought still covers a large portion of the region. Much of this week is warm and dry, with very limited showers in the southeast on Wednesday. A massive storm system is forecast to move into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts while southwestern areas will see strong winds and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages. There may be a better chance for precipitation in needed areas in the middle of next week.

Midwest: Very warm temperatures are in place this week. Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. But a massive storm system is forecast to move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, northwestern snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which will probably include a band of heavy snow during the middle of next week. The forecast precipitation may help with the drought situation.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries, which should help flood waters recede and soils to dry out somewhat. A small system will move through on Wednesday night with some showers, but a massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday, which may be more significant and include severe weather. Another system in the middle of next week could also add water to the region, all of which may slow down early planting.

Europe: A series of systems will continue to move through this week, producing scattered showers, particularly across the south and east. Northwestern areas that do not need much rain right now are only getting light amounts. Warm temperatures have allowed more of the wheat crop to break dormancy, doing so in fairly good condition in most areas. Temperatures rise again next week in overall drier conditions. We will see storms moving back into western areas by late next week, though. Spain should continue to see beneficial rainfall as well.

Black Sea: Temperatures continue to be very warm, encouraging green-up for winter wheat. However, soils are very dry and wheat will find overall poor conditions. An active pattern over Europe will only produce streaks of precipitation across Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Northern sections stand to benefit the most and some areas are likely to remain dry across the south, continuing the poor weather conditions.

 

The player sheet for 3/12 had funds: sellers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria state grains agency OAIC bought around 450,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Wednesday
• BARLEY TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER UPDATE: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY AUCTION: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by August 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction held on March 12.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.3% to 27.376M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 27.168 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.062m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.081m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending March 6.

• Corn est. range 725k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,003k
• Soybean est. range 250k – 700k tons, with avg of 419k

 

Canada to Plant 27.5M Acres of Wheat, 21.6M of Canola: StatsCan

Canadian farmers anticipate a 2.6% increase in wheat acres from last year, according to Statistics Canada’s principal crop areas report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.9m acres, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey, with a range of 26.2m-27.3m acres
• Canola planting to fall by 1.7% y/y to 21.6m acres
  • Survey avg was for 21.7m acres, range 21m-23.5m acres

 

Ukraine says Russian strike on Odesa port is attack on global food security

Ukraine’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that Russia’s missile strike on the Black Sea port of Odesa, which damaged a grain vessel and killed four people, was an attack on global food security.

“It demonstrates how close this war is to Algeria, Syria, and other countries,” Andrii Sybiha said on X, adding that the vessel was supposed to deliver wheat to Algeria.

A ballistic missile struck the MJ Pinar bulk carrier that was loading wheat for Algeria, killing four Syrian nationals and injuring one other Syrian and a Ukrainian, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said on Telegram on Wednesday.

Global grain merchant Louis Dreyfus Company said in an emailed statement that the vessel had been loading at its Brooklyn-Kiev terminal at Odesa port, with terminal infrastructure also damaged.

LDC said its terminal employees were safe, with the dead among the crew of the chartered vessel.

Ukraine, like Russia, is a major grain exporter. It has managed to re-establish large-scale maritime exports during the war, despite Russian strikes on ports.

Andriy Klymenko from the Institute of Black Sea Strategic Studies, said Russia would continue attacks on Ukrainian ports.

“(We) predicted and warned… that Russia would continue and intensify its attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea and Danube ports in an attempt to stop the operation of the maritime corridor and simultaneously create conditions for increasing its own maritime grain exports,” Klymenko said on Facebook.

He said that in the January-October period last year there were at least 113 Russian attacks recorded on the port, energy and other infrastructure in the Odesa region, which includes the sea corridor.

“At the end of 2024, for the first time, 7 foreign vessels were damaged as a result of these attacks,” he noted.

The Ukrainian sea corridor has been operating since autumn 2023. As of December 3,500 vessels have exported 93.3 million metric tons of cargo via the route.

 

Argentina oilseed strike called off but Vicentin workers stick to plan

• Government ordered suspension of strike, initiating 15-day conciliation period
• Vicentin workers continue strike due to unpaid wages amidst ongoing bankruptcy since 2020
• Strike was to being Wednesday morning

Argentina oilseed workers called off a nationwide strike at soybean processing plants due to a government order hours before it was set to start Wednesday, though workers for conglomerate Vicentin stuck to the strike action.

In Argentina, the world’s largest supplier of soybean oil and meal, workers before the eleventh-hour government order had planned to begin an indefinite strike from 6 a.m. over a wage dispute with conglomerate Vicentin and other oilseed firms.

On Tuesday night, the government ordered the workers to suspend the strike.

Workers for Vicentin, however, had since Tuesday started a strike at some plants near the Rosario grains hub and a leader of the SOEA union told Reuters that while the nationwide strike had been called off, workers at Vicentin planned to continue.

“The government last night issued the compulsory conciliation order and obviously we complied. In the end we did not start the strike,” SOEA secretary Martin Morales said.

The Argentina government can call for a compulsory conciliation period during which unions must suspend strike action and the parties must try to reach an agreement. In this case, the period will last 15 days.

Morales noted that the Vincentin strikes that began on Tuesday were set to continue.

“The workers who were not paid last month do not want to go to work,” he said.

The strike is set to affect Vicentin’s Ricardone, San Lorenzo and Avellaneda processing plants, all located in eastern Santa Fe province.

Workers have been calling on Vicentin to pay their salary for the last month after the company paid just a fraction of what was owed, citing a “critical financial situation”.

Vicentin, has been in bankruptcy proceedings since 2020.

The CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grains exporters late on Tuesday criticized the union’s plans to strike, saying it was up to the unions and Vicentin to resolve the matter without disrupting the country’s operations.

“We were in talks with the unions to make the wage updates for this year,” the chamber said, pointing to positive inflation trends in a country with some of the world’s highest price increases that has eaten away at residents’ spending power.

It said it had promised that no oilseed worker would see a wage increase lower than the annual inflation figure.

“This is why we regret the breakdown of talks with the unions and this disproportionate and illegal strike,” it said.

 

Late Rains Fail to Revive Argentina Corn, Soy Crops: Rosario

Argentina further slashed its 2024-25 soybean and corn crop projections, as late rainfall failed to reverse losses in large parts of the country’s growing regions baked by drought and extreme heat, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a monthly report.

• Soybean output is expected to reach 46.5 million metric tons, one million less than predicted last month
  • Soybean yields saw a strong rebound in the central region, the report said
  • However, precipitation arrived late for the rest of the Pampas region and is still lacking in northern Argentina
• Corn output is seen at 44.5 million tons, 1.5 million tons less than previously expected
  • Much of the corn flowering stage was in midst of the heat wave in the Pampas region, and relief arrived late for the central and northern regions
  • Recent rains have improved the condition of crops that are still in critical stages, but production potential has been limited by the lack of water during flowering

 

Brazil’s Big Grains Producer SLC Raises Soybean Yield Forecast

SLC Agrícola SA, one of Brazil’s major grains producers, raised it’s soybean yield estimate by 1.7% for the 2024-25 crop season, according to an earnings statement released Wednesday.

• Forecast reflects soybean planting during the ideal period
• Forecast for second corn crop average yield reduced by 7.4%
• NOTE: SLC Agrícola to reach 731,644 hectares planted with grains, cotton and used to raise cattle in 2024-25 marketing year, up 11% from prior crop season

 

Outlook for record Chinese second-quarter soybean imports may ease supply tightness

• Brazilian harvest delays tighten China’s soybean supplies
• Chinese processors suspend operations amid supply squeeze
• China’s soybean imports expected to rise from April

China is poised to receive record soybean imports in the second quarter, traders and analyst said, after delayed Brazilian shipments and slow customs clearances have caused supply tightness that forced several processors to halt operations.

The world’s largest soybean buyer is forecast to import a record high of 31.3 million metric tons of the oilseed in the April to June period, alleviating supply pressure from smaller arrivals expected during March, according to the average of forecasts from five research and trading firms.

That is a roughly 4.6% rise from 29.91 million tons imported during the second quarter of last year, as freshly harvested beans from Brazil’s bumper crop flow into China.

“South America soybean prices, particularly Brazilian new crop soybean, are more attractive than their counterpart, as such Chinese crushers have purchased rather large volumes of Brazilian new crop soybeans,” said Cheang Kang Wei, assistant vice president at StoneX in Singapore.

China’s recent supply squeeze stems from buyers avoiding U.S. beans amid concerns over a trade war with Washington, along with delays in Brazil’s harvest, the world’s biggest soybean producer.

Beijing retaliated last week against new U.S. tariffs by increasing duties on $21 billion worth of agricultural products, including soybeans.

“The soybean shortage during this period has been more widespread and severe, prompting a growing number of soybean mills across the country to halt operations,” said Liu Jinlu, agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

 

French Wheat-Export Outlook Cut 1.7% Mostly on Non-EU Sales Drop

France’s soft-wheat exports are now seen at 9.58m tons in the 2024-25 season, 1.7% lower than a February estimate of 9.74m tons, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report Wednesday.

• Lower estimate in March mostly due to cut of about 6% in non-European Union sales, which are also down 69% from previous 2023-2024 season
• Total exports would be down 42% from 2023-2024
• Stockpiles projection for this season at 2.91m tons, up from 2.81m tons in February

BARLEY:

• Export outlook at 5m tons from 4.82m tons in February
• Stockpile estimate cut to 1.33m tons from 1.56m tons in February

CORN:

• Exports forecast at 4.59m tons, down from 4.57m tons in February
• Stockpiles now seen at 3.08m tons, up from 2.77m tons in February

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Down 4.5% Down Y/Y So Far This Season

Ukraine’s total grain exports for the season that started in July 1 reached 30.5m tons, which is 4.5% down from the same period last year, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

The season’s exports so far include:

• 12.4m tons of wheat, up 3% y/y
• 2.15m tons of barley, up 21% y/y
• 15.5m tons of corn, down around 9% y/y

 

Corn harvest season begins in Paraguay amid improving weather

The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) maintained their estimate for 2024/25 Paraguay corn production at 5.2 million metric tons in their most recent WASDE report (released on 11 March). LSEG’s Weather Research team’s latest forecast indicates near-normal precipitation levels throughout key producing areas of the southeastern Oriental region over the next two weeks, and then warm/dry weather to arrive during the remainder of the month, which is likely to favor harvest operations.

 

Paraguay soybean production unchanged as harvest season is underway

2024/25 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 9.7 [8.9-10.1] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Paraguay soybean production is unchanged from our previous estimate of 9.7 million metric tons (MMT). Our current projection is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook (WAOB)’s most recent estimate of 10.7 MMT (released on 11 March), due to severe soil moisture deficits throughout key producing areas of the southeastern Oriental region during critical periods of the growing season. According to LSEG’s Weather Research team, precipitation levels will be near normal throughout the next two weeks, and then dryness will likely prevail through the end of March, likely to be favorable for the soybean harvest.

 

Recent rains benefited China wheat production, A record harvest is expected

2025/26 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 141.5 [138.0-145.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED from last update

Recent widespread rains provided adequate soil moisture for the re-growth of China winter wheat crops. Weather forecasts call for below average temperatures in the next 7 days, but warmer temperatures will return afterward. Overall mixed temperatures outlook indicates little or no immediate risks to wheat production. We expect a record high wheat harvest in China this season.

 

India wheat production holds steady as crop matures

2025/26 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 111.6 [105.8-115.5] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 India wheat production prospects are unchanged from our previous estimate of 111.6 million tons as the crop is currently in its grain-formation and maturation period. Crop vegetation densities (NDVI) are currently above the long-term median trend, but below last year’s level during the corresponding period in key producing northern states, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab. In Madhya Pradesh, NDVI’s are above last year’s level as well as the long-term median. Over the past two weeks, weather was mostly dry in key-producing wheat regions and cooler than normal temperatures arrived, providing relief for wheat crops from hot temperatures in late-February. According to LSEG’s Weather Research latest forecast, temperatures in northern India will be between 2-4 °C above normal through the 5 days, and then normal temperatures should return the next 5-days.

 

 

 

 

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