Global Ag News for Mar 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Russia Signals It May Limit Grain Sales If Harvest Falters

Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, may consider limits on grain sales if the 2025 harvest is lower than forecast, Tass reported Friday.

The government “will promptly initiate the introduction of additional non-tariff measures” if bad weather leaves grain production below expectations, the news service said, citing a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

A dry spell last autumn threatened wheat planting for the crop that will be collected later this year. The 2024 harvest also was below recent peaks, tightening the country’s stockpiles. Russia typically enacts a wheat-export quota at the end of every season, which recently kicked in.

Crops now are emerging from winter dormancy, and favorable spring weather would aid production. Wheat futures in Chicago traded 1.4% lower on Friday. Still, any signs of export restrictions stands to lift global wheat prices in the longer term.

Steady outflows of Russian wheat to the global market have pushed down prices in recent years, after record highs seen in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. However, SovEcon estimates that the country’s 2025 harvest is likely to be its lowest since 2021.

Lower production would mean that the 2025-26 season starts in July with global stockpiles expected at the tightest in nine years.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil down 1.00.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 11 1/2; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $6.20; Soyoil down 1.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 2 1/2 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $4.90; Soyoil down 1.70.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.2% in SRW, down 1.4% in HRW, down 3.0% in HRS; Corn is down 0.7%; Soybeans up 1.2%; Soymeal down 3.7%; Soyoil up 6.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal up 26; Soyoil up 62; Palm oil up 158; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is down 129.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 129 ringgit (-2.79%) at 4496.

 

There were changes in registrations (-154 Soymeal, -10 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 739 Soybeans; 1,330 Soyoil; 1,336 Soymeal; 379 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 7 were: SRW Wheat up 2,260 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,387, Corn up 698, Soybeans down 6,596, Soymeal down 7,454, Soyoil down 3,423.

 

Brazil: A front moved into southern areas over the weekend, bringing some needed moisture and a break from the heat. The front stays stalled out for a couple of days before lifting northward later in the week and bringing showers up to dry areas in east-central Brazil. The state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a big producer of full-season corn and soybeans, is filling with poor conditions. While rains fell this weekend, the dryness there continues to be a concern. West-central states continue to see scattered wet-season showers and overall fair conditions.

Argentina: A front lifted north out of the country over the weekend, ending the run of wet weather across the central and south. Northern areas got some rain, but not enough to limit the falling soil moisture there. Temperatures fell behind that front though, wiping out the stressful heat. Though a front will move through with limited showers Monday and Tuesday, overall dry conditions are expected this week.

Northern Plains: It was dry over the weekend with increasing temperatures. Most of this week will be quiet and warm, but a system that moves through on Friday is forecast to bring scattered showers and snow, and the snow may be heavy in some spots. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture. Much more is needed, however.

Central/Southern Plains: A system went through with snow across the far north on Friday and a mix of rain and snow across the south on Saturday. With warm temperatures filling in over the weekend, the snow is quickly melting away, building soil moisture in these limited areas instead. Drought still covers a large portion of the region, however. Much of this week will be warm and dry, with very limited showers in the southeast on Wednesday. A massive storm system is forecast to move into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts. This region is more likely to see wind and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages.

Midwest: A system continued through the region on Friday with scattered showers. Warm temperatures began to flood the region over the weekend though and will be very warm this week. Any remaining snow in the northwest will melt away. Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. But a massive storm system is forecast to move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, and strong winds. Some smaller systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which may help somewhat with the drought situation.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A system went by with scattered showers over the weekend, but water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries, which should help flood waters recede and soils to dry out somewhat. A small system will move through on Wednesday night with some showers, but a massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday that may be more significant and include severe weather. Additional systems next week could also add water to the region, which may slow down early planting.

 

The player sheet for 3/7 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,500 corn, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 131,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 140,000 tons
• NO PURCHASE IN FEED CORN TENDER: A Tunisian state grains agency is believed to have rejected offers and made no purchase in an international tender seeking about 25,000 metric tons of animal feed corn on Friday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 94,282 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is believed to be March 10. The agency will make a decision within 15 days of the tender closing.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY AUCTION: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by August 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction held on March 12.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY

China Sets Retaliatory Tariffs on Canada Rapeseed Oil, Pork

China said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on imports of rapeseed oil, pork and seafood from Canada as the trade war escalates.

There will be a 100% tariff on rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal and pea products, and a 25% levy on pork and some seafood imports, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement on Saturday. The changes will be effective March 20.

Canada last year imposed a 100% levy on electric cars and 25% on steel and aluminum from China. That led the Chinese government to launch an anti-dumping probe into rapeseed imports from Canada and lodge a complaint with the World Trade Organization to challenge the decision.

Boxes of imported pork from the US at a cold storage warehouse in Shanghai on March 5.

The levies hurt Chinese industries’ operations and investments, and “seriously violated” WTO rules, the government said.

Canada is one of the world’s largest producers of rapeseed, a crop also known as canola. Shipments of rapeseed to China stood at 6.39 million tons last year, almost all of which were from Canada.

China is expected to import about 1.75 million tons of rapeseed oil this season, but it brings in larger volumes of the raw oilseed, USDA forecasts show. China’s pork imports have dwindled in recent years as it grapples with domestic oversupply amid a weakening economy.

US President Donald Trump this week delivered on his threat to hit Canada and Mexico with sweeping import levies and doubled an existing charge on China. The new US tariffs — 25% duties on most Canadian and Mexican imports and raising the charge on China to 20% — apply to roughly $1.5 trillion in annual imports.

China is highly vulnerable to the risk of a global trade war. Although the US directly absorbs only about 15% of Chinese exports, more goods are shipped there through Vietnam, Mexico and other countries.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday that her country would review tariffs on Chinese shipments. Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said in an interview with Bloomberg that Canada is prepared to work with the White House to hash out further measures to prevent China from “dumping into the North American market.”

 

Rains in Argentina Spur Improvement in Soybeans, Corn: Exchange

Widespread, heavy rains in the last few days have driven an improvement in the condition of soybeans across Argentina’s crop region, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a weekly report.

• In the key central area, “a large proportion of the first soy crop has started grain-fill with optimal moisture conditions”
• Also, more than half of the second soy crop is entering a crucial development stage with optimal moisture, which will help to compensate drought and heat waves earlier in the season
• Soy production estimate kept at 49.6m metric tons
• Soy acreage categorized as good to excellent rises to 29% from 24% last week
• CORN:
  • Rains spur a third consecutive week of improvement in the late crop
  • In Cordoba province, renewed moisture is “favoring optimal grain-fill”
  • Production estimate kept at 49m tons
  • Harvest progress reaches 6.7%

 

Brazil soy farmer lobby says temporary court order suspends 1.8% grain export levy

A temporary court order against the charging by the state of Maranhao of a 1.8% tax on grain exports has been handed down on February 28, according to a notice on the website of Aprosoja Brasil, which represents soy and corn growers nationwide.

The farm group said the judge has not yet ruled on the merit of the request to block the new tax, which they claim is unconstitutional. An Aprosoja Brasil spokesperson explained the magistrate gave the state 15 days to present its defense, during which time the levy will be suspended.

 

Brazil soy premiums shoot up in wake of US tariffs against China

The premium paid for soybeans in Brazil in relation to futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 70% this week, reflecting the effect of a trade war involving the U.S. and China.

At the port of Paranagua, the soybean export premium hit 85 cents per bushel for shipment in March, the highest value since 2022, when considering the same month of shipment in the same period in previous years, according to the closely watched Cepea indicator.

Last week, the premium was 50 cents per bushel.

“Stronger demand for Brazilian soybeans is linked to the worsening of the trade conflict between the United States and China,” according to Cepea.

Analysts expect China to turn to Brazil for additional supplies of soybeans, corn, cotton and meat after the announcement of the U.S. tariffs against China.

But as export demand increases for Brazilian grains, costs for local meatpacking industries and grain buyers in Brazil tend to rise, they added.

In January and February, China was the destination for 79% of Brazilian soybean exports, compared to 75% in the same period last year, according to trade data released by grain exporters lobby Anec.

The exporter group said the rise reflects a shift of Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans do the detriment of the U.S. product in recent weeks.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Sales 42.4% Done as of Mar. 7: Safras

Soybean sales from the 2024/25 season reached 42.4% of expected production as of Mar. 7, according to an emailed report by consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Sales had been 39.4% completed by Feb. 7
• Pace compares to 36.6% a year earlier
• 2024/25 harvest estimated at 174.88 million metric tons, Safras says

 

Brazil’s 2024/25 Soybean Sales Reach 42.4% – Safras & Mercado

BRAZIL’S 2024/25 SOYBEAN SALES REACH 42.4% OF EXPECTED OUTPUT VERSUS 36.6% A YEAR AGO – SAFRAS & MERCADO

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Reserves Drop Less Than Estimates

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia fell less than expected last month as production in the world’s second-biggest grower was not as bad as feared and exports sank.

Inventories declined 4.3% from a month earlier to 1.51 million tons in February, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported on Monday. That’s the lowest monthly level since April 2023, but still higher than the figure in a Bloomberg survey last week.

“The data is slightly bearish,” said Andy Soo, commodities broker at Advanced Research Commodities in Singapore. “End-stocks are above 1.5 million tons due to the lower-than-expected exports as well as production that did not drop as steeply as predicted.”

Output fell just 4.2%, against the 5.6% drop predicted in the survey and a 10% slump estimated by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a group of growers. Exports, meanwhile, sank 16% to a four-year low of 1 million tons, weaker than predicted.

 

Brazil February Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Coffee exports fell 20% in February from a year ago
• Corn exports fell 16% y/y
• Pork exports rose 20% y/y

 

CORN/CEPEA: Firm demand sustains prices in Brazil

Brazilian purchasers have been willing to trade in the spot market; however, they have been facing difficulties to buy new batches, since the supply is low and sellers are asking higher values. Moreover, players continue to face logistics difficulties.

Sellers have been limiting the supply, expecting new price increases, based on uncertainties regarding the second crop – the pace of sowing activities is below that verified last season.

The Brazilian government announced that it will exclude the import tariff for corn in the coming days, in an attempt to reduce prices. It is worth noting that 1.7 million tons were imported in the 2023/24 season, accounting for only 1.4% of the supply (initial stocks + production + imports, according to data from Conab).

PRICES – Corn quotations remain firm in most regions surveyed by Cepea, but they are moving up less compared to previous periods.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) upped 0.2% between February 27 and March 6, closing at BRL 87.85 per 60-kilo bag on March 6, the highest level since May 23, 2022 (BRL 88.03/bag). On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from February 27 to March 6, corn values moved up 1% both in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

CROPS – Up to March 2, the harvesting of the summer crop had reached 25.3% of the area in Brazil, upping 4.4 percentage points in one week, but still below the 29.4% verified in the same period last year – data from Conab. As for sowing activities of the second crop, the total reached 69.6% until March 2, also according to Conab.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Pace of trades increases; export premiums rise in Brazil

The pace of soy trades has increased this week in the spot market, influenced by the supply increase and the fact that purchasers (especially from abroad) are willing to close deals. The high international demand is related to the trade war between the US and China – the Chinese government has announced tariffs to farming and livestock products from the United States; as for soybean, the additional tariff is 10%.

Now, Asian consumers may redirect their demand to South America, especially to Brazil, world’s biggest producer and exporter of soybean. As a result, export premiums have started to increase in Brazil.

As for the spot market, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) moved up 0.9% from February 27 to March 6, to close at BRL 135.72 per 60-kg bag on March 6. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 1.2% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 128.85 per 60-kg bag on March 6. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices increased 0.4% from Feb. 27 to March 6 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices increased only 0.1% between Feb. 27 and March 6. The Brazilian value of soy oil, in turn, dropped 0.4%, at 6,837.60 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on March 6.

 

Brazil grain trader Agribrasil talks with suitors, sources say

Brazilian listed grain trader Agribrasil has held talks with suitors interested in buying a stake in the firm, according to two sources familiar with the matter speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private.

Two sources named Solaris Commodities, an independent commodity trader headquartered in Dubai, as one of the potential suitors. One source cited interest from Asian investors and named the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC), based in Riyadh, as a potential suitor.

No agreement has been reached, according to one of the people.

A deal would give Agribrasil, one of the few independent grain traders in Brazil, access to fresh capital to grow the business.

From a foreign buyer’s viewpoint, closing a deal would represent setting foot in the farm powerhouse nation or grow their presence here, as the world grapples with trade wars and nations strive to guarantee food security.

Solaris and SALIC did not have an immediate comment. Agribrasil said as a listed company, information is only shared through the officials channel of the local stock market regulator, without elaborating.

Agribrasil traded in 1.858 million tons of soybeans and corn in the first nine months of 2024, according to the latest available financial information. That represents a 68% rise from the same period in the previous year, driven mainly by a large increase in third-party soy traded volumes shipped through TESC, a port terminal in Santa Catarina state.

Exports of soy and corn accounted for 84% of Agribrasil’s sales in the nine months ending in September 2024, according to financial disclosures.

The company owns 51% of TESC.

 

Russian wheat export duty to rise 12.2% to 2,444.4 rubles per tonne from March 12

The duty rate for Russian wheat exports will increase 12.2% from March 12, to 2,444.4 rubles per tonne from 2,177.7 rubles per tonne a week earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said.

The duty on barley will rise from 680.9 rubles per tonne to 874.8 rubles per tonne, while the duty on corn will increase from 1,715.8 rubles per tonne to 1,925.9 rubles per tonne.

The rates were calculated based on indicative prices of $241.9 per tonne for wheat ($241.3 for the previous period), $204 for barley ($204) and $220.9 for corn ($220.9).

The new rates will remain in effect until March 18, inclusive.

Since June 2, 2021, Russia has implemented a grain damper mechanism which provides for floating export duties on wheat, corn and barley, with the revenue from these duties being returned to subsidize agricultural producers. The duty rates are calculated weekly based on indicators derived from export contract prices registered on the Moscow Exchange. Initially, duty rates were calculated in U.S. dollars. Since July 2022, they have been set in rubles. The duty is set at 70% of the difference between the base and indicative prices.

Initially, the base price for duty calculations was 15,000 rubles per tonne of wheat and 13,875 rubles per tonne of barley and corn. In June 2023, it was raised to 17,000 and 15,875 rubles per tonne, respectively. From June 28, 2024, the base price for wheat has been set at 18,000 rubles, and for barley and corn at 16,875 rubles per tonne.

 

Middle East Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Drops 7.87%

Nitrogen fertilizer, represented by Middle East granular urea, fell 7.87% to $410 per metric ton in the week ended March 7, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

• Middle East granular urea dropped 2.38% during the last month and was up 18.5% during the last 3 months
• Major Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Shares of Abou Kir Fertilizers & Chemical Industries and SABIC Agri-Nutrients Co. were up, while Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd. was unchanged in the latest week
• Major UAN nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Major Ammonia nitrogen benchmark prices were unchanged
• Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has increased 9.6% during the last week and was up 27% during the last month
• The price of corn, a driver of fertilizer purchases, decreased 0.2% during the last week and was down 6.3% during the last month

 

US Beef Production Up 2.1% This Week, Pork Down: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 505m pounds for the week ending March 8 from 494m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 2.1% from a week ago to 578m head
• Pork production down 5% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 4.7%
• For the year, beef production is 2.6% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 4.4% below

 

 

 

 

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