Global Ag News for June 16.23

TOP HEADLINES

Kernel Sees “Catastrophic” Delays of Ships With Ukrainian Grain

Russia continues impeding Ukraine’s agricultural export and outbound ships waiting in the Bosporus are acquiring “catastrophic scale,” grain and oilseed oil producer and trader Kernel said in emailed comments.

• Delays make timely delivery impossible and “unsatisfied clients have to look for products of other origin,” CEO Ievgen Osypov says
• Kernel urges the Joint Coordination Center to increase daily inspections to 12-15 from 1-2 at present and to set up more inspection teams

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 8 3/4 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 17 1/2; Soymeal up $4.80; Soyoil up 0.82.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 35 3/4 in SRW, up 16 1/4 in HRW, up 24 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 51 3/4; Soybeans up 106 1/2; Soymeal up $22.30; Soyoil up 5.24.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 72 1/4 in SRW, up 32 1/4 in HRW, up 56 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 60; Soybeans up 163 1/4; Soymeal up $23.60; Soyoil up 11.12.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 16.0% in SRW, down 8.5% in HRW, down 11.0% in HRS; Corn is down 7.1%; Soybeans down 5.1%; Soymeal down 16.7%; Soyoil down 7.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 23) Soybeans up 101 yuan; Soymeal up 90; Soyoil up 250; Palm oil up 258; Corn up 31 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 287 ringgit (+8.15%) at 3808.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 1,088 Soyoil; 11 Soymeal; 97 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 15 were: SRW Wheat down 2,963 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,675, Corn up 3,788, Soybeans down 542, Soymeal down 87, Soyoil down 4,969.

Northern Plains: A system is moving through the Northern Plains with scattered showers through Friday or Saturday but will miss many areas. The pattern remains active for the region, with another system stuck in the region with scattered showers next week. Some areas of the region are quite dry and need some good rainfall while others are doing just fine.

Central/Southern Plains: Areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of the Central and Southern Plains Thursday and Friday, which may include some significant severe weather, and a system will move through over the weekend with more showers and thunderstorms. Another system will try to move into the region later next week, but showers could pop up at times between the systems. Recent and forecast precipitation will do its best to ease drought conditions further, but that may not translate to improved conditions in all places.

Midwest: A disturbance may bring some showers to the eastern Midwest on Thursday and a system will move through over the weekend with the next chance for widespread showers. The forecast coverage and intensity are uncertain with this system, but western areas stand a better chance of showers than eastern areas. The uncertainty continues for next week, though temperatures are likely to be above normal — significantly so in some areas — which may stress out drier areas of the region. Those hotter and drier conditions next week may be short-lived with another system moving through late next week and weekend with an opportunity for more widespread rain.

Delta: Several disturbances will continue to create heavy showers in the Delta into next week, increasing soil moisture and reducing concern about growing dryness. Although severe weather chances have increased, conditions are turning favorable for developing crops again.

Canadian Prairie: A system moving through the Canadian Prairies has already brought heavy rain to Alberta on Wednesday and continues that Thursday. As the system moves eastward, precipitation will become more isolated. Additional systems are expected this weekend and next week as well, bringing more rain to the region. Temperatures will be variable and less consistently hot over the next ten days. Overall, conditions are either favorable or improving for most areas.

Argentina: Soil moisture is still suboptimal in Argentina. Colder temperatures have settled in and have produced widespread areas of frosts and freezes this week, which will continue for the next few mornings. The colder temperatures will slow germination and growth for wheat. Another front will produce some showers as it moves through early next week, but those look sporadic and light. Another round of frosts will be possible for southern areas.

The player sheet for 6/15 had funds: net buyers of 12,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 17,500 corn, buyers of 20,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Iraq bought 400,000 tonnes of Australian wheat in February, has received one cargo ship and expects further shipments to continue arriving until September.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 62,200 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was June 8.

TODAY

NOPA May soybean crush tops most estimates at 177.915 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush in May topped most trade estimates and rose to the highest ever level for the fifth month of the year, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Thursday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 177.915 million bushels of soybeans last month, compared with 173.232 million bushels processed in April and a May 2022 crush of 171.077 million bushels, the previous record for the month.

The average daily crush pace, however, declined for a second straight month to 5.739 million bushels a day, the slowest daily rate since December, according to NOPA data.

The May 2023 crush exceeded the average trade estimate of 175.880 million bushels in a Reuters survey of 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 172.850 million to 179.200 million bushels, with a median of 175.334 million bushels.

NOPA’s May report included data from new member Shell Rock Soy Processing LLC in Shell Rock, Iowa, for the first time, NOPA said.

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of May 31 dropped to 1.872 billion pounds, down from a 14-month high of 1.957 billion pounds at the end of April but above the 1.774 billion pounds in NOPA stocks at the end of May 2022.

Soyoil supplies had been expected to drop to 1.942 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from seven analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.888 billion to 2.050 billion pounds, with a median of 1.925 billion pounds.

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates June 15: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2022-23 soybean and corn production estimates both maintained
• 2023-24 wheat planting area est. unchanged at 6.3m ha

Argentina Wheat Planting Plans at Risk on Parched Farms: Bourse

Dryness in the west of the key crop region means fieldwork is delayed and farmers may miss the planting window altogether, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• Planting 40% complete, lagging this stage last season by 18 ppts
• Area estimate unchanged at 6.3m hectares (15.6m acres)
  • NOTE: The Rosario Board of Trade on Thursday estimated the wheat area will be 5.6m ha
• Poor corn yields in Cordoba province mean the exchange may have to chop its current estimate of 36m metric tons

Navigation Resumes in Argentina’s Parana After Ship Aground

• Waterway authorities in the Parana River re-instated navigation, the Nabsa shipping agency said in a note to clients
• Vessel Berge Tateyama ran aground on Thursday morning after leaving a port in San Lorenzo, part of the crop-export hub around Rosario
  • It was partially obstructing the river channel, leading authorities to stop the passage of other ships
  • It had loaded at a Renova terminal with 41,000 metric tons of soy products, including meal, and was bound for Italy
  • NOTE: Renova is a JV between Glencore’s Viterra and Vicentin. Its facilities are currently being operated 100% by Viterra

Ukraine Crop Corridor Inspections Fall to Fresh Low in June: UN

The average daily pace of completed ship inspections by the Joint Coordination Centre fell to 1.7 in 1H June, according to the office of the UN coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

• That compares with 3.1 average for May and a peak of 10.6 in October
  • NOTE: Figures include outbound and inbound ships
• Number of inspection teams at the JCC is down to two as of May 25, from three previously
• “So far in June, there were eight days where not all parties could agree to register new vessels in the initiative. Given the slow pace of inspections, many vessels intending to move to Ukrainian ports have experienced long wait times”

Russia sees 2023/24 grain exports of up to 60 mln metric tons -TASS

Russia may export up to 60 million metric ton of grains in the upcoming marketing season that begins next month, Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko told TASS on Friday.

Abramchenko said Russia could harvest about 130 million metric tons of grains this year.

Russia to limit sunflower exports until own processing plants fully loaded -Ifax

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry said on Friday that Russia would limit sunflower exports until its processing plants are fully loaded, Interfax reported.

Reducing duty on refined oil imports won’t cool prices: Edible oil firms

The government’s decision to reduce the import duty on refined soybean oil and refined sunflower oil from 17.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent will not have any immediate impact on the retail prices of these oils, according to Emami Agrotech, Adani Wilmar, and Gemini Edibles and Fats India, The Economic Times reported on Friday. The companies said it takes about 50 days for the oils to be imported to India, during which they lose their quality and original taste. Additionally, the country is not currently importing any refined soybean or sunflower oil. Emami Agrotech CEO Sudhakar Desai said there is no surplus refining capacity in countries that export soya and sunflower oils and they do not have preferential lower duty for refined oils. “So, bulk imports of refined sunflower and soybean oils may not happen in the short term. However, it opens up the Indian market for imports of refined oils and refined palm imports will continue unless the duty differential is widened,” he added. Currently, the country imposes an import duty of five per cent on all crude edible oils, such as crude palm oil, crude sunflower oil, and crude soybean oil. Refined edible oils, on the other hand, are subject to an import duty of 12.5 per cent, plus an additional 10 per cent cess on import duty.

Paraguay Approves GM Wheat Developed by Bioceres

Paraguay’s Agriculture Ministry has given commercial approval to the HB4 gene-modified wheat strain, according to a government resolution dated May 10.

VTB Says Key Russian Grain Buyers Ready to Use Ruble, Yuan: IFX

“We see that key consumers, namely Turkey, Egypt, Iran, which account for about 50% of grain exports, are ready to use the ruble as a means of payment, ready to switch to the yuan as a means of payment,” Interfax reported VTB head of corporate investment Vitaliy Sergeychuk as saying at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

• Says Russia is “guarantor of the supply of such an important crop as wheat to the poorest countries of the south and east”

US Corn Crops in Drought Area Jump to 57%: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending June 13, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose by 12 percentage points from the previous week to 57%
• At this time last year, 17% of corn crops were in drought
• Soybean crops in drought also rose by 12 points, reaching 51%

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 419k tons in the week ending June 10 from 525k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 23% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 10% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $8.24 per short ton, an increase of $0.18 from the previous week

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