Global Ag News for July 8.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 22 1/4 in SRW, up 15 1/2 in HRW, up 30 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 0.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, down 17 3/4 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans down 36; Soymeal down $0.01; Soyoil down 3.18.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 25 1/4 in SRW, down 47 in HRW, down 25 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 17 3/4; Soybeans down 92 1/4; Soymeal down $16.90; Soyoil down 4.44.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 9% in SRW, up 11% in HRW, down -7% in HRS; Corn is up 27%; Soybeans up 20%; Soymeal up 15%; Soyoil up 12%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 20 yuan; Soymeal up 64; Soyoil up 290; Palm oil up 324; Corn up 17 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 23 ringgit (+0.56%) at 4163.

There were changes in registrations (-1 SRW Wheat, 4 Oats). Registration total: 2,665 SRW Wheat contracts; 15 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 66 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 7 were: SRW Wheat down 1,189 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,855, Corn up 1,113, Soybeans down 9,159, Soymeal up 1,311, Soyoil down 2,160.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above to near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry to isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers Friday, mostly north. Mostly dry to isolated showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal south and near normal north through Saturday, above normal Sunday, above normal south and near normal north Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry to isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal south and near to below normal north Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry north and scattered showers south Friday. Isolated to scattered showers west otherwise mostly dry Saturday. Mostly dry south and isolated to scattered showers north Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry north and isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry south and isolated to scattered showers north Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. Outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry to isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Mostly dry to isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to slightly below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Isolated showers to mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers far east, otherwise mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Mostly dry to isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 7/7 had funds: net buyers of 12,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 9,000 corn, buyers of 15,000 soybeans, buyers of 5,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 9,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC purchased about 63,000 tonnes of German-origin wheat in a direct deal this week, sources said. GASC has so far bought around 1.3 million tonnes of wheat in the new marketing year which began in July, amid a dip in global prices not witnessed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 122,420 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Pakistan is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for 500,000 tonnes of wheat which closed last week
• WHEAT TENDER: The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP)issued a new international tender to purchase and import 300,000 tonnes of wheat
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase at least 50,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
• CORN PURHCASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal earlier this week without an international tender being issued

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat, traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is July 14, they said. A separate tender from Bangladesh for 50,000 tonnes of wheat closes on July 5.
• VEGETABLE OIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer said on Monday it was seeking at least 3,000 tonnes of soyoil and 1,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in a local production tender for arrival Aug. 10-30. Deadline for offers is on July 6.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat
• FEED WHEAT, FEED BARLEY TENDER: Japan is seeking 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Oct. 31 and arrive in Japan by Dec. 22 via a simultaneous buy and sell auction on July 13, the country’s agriculture minister said.

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 3.3% to 23.49M Bbl

Brazil July Soybean and Corn Crop Estimates: Conab

Output est. cut from 124.27m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 124.9m tons
• Yield seen lower at 3,029 kg/ha vs 3,032 kg/ha last month
• Area planted lowered to 40.951m ha vs 40.989m ha last month
• Corn production est. raised to 115.7m tons vs 115.2m tons

Brazil’s Conab Sees Higher Corn Exports, Record Wheat Production

Corn exports estimates for 2022 were raised to 37.5m tons from 37m tons in the previous month, Brazil’s national supply company Conab says Thursday in a report.

• Shipments seen jumping 80% y/y on strong demand, rising output
• NOTE: Total corn crop estimate raised to 115.7m tons from 115.2m tons in June
• Wheat production seen rising 17.6% y/y to 9m tons, a record high
  • Planted area may increase 6.6%, while yields may rise 10.3%
  • Wheat seeding is 65% complete
  • Imports in the 2022-23 season, which starts in August, seen rising to 6.5m tons from 6m tons in the previous season

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 7: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2022-23 Wheat planting area lowered to 6.2m ha vs 6.3m ha
• 2021-22 Corn harvest advanced to 53% from 46.5%

Ukraine Harvested 1.1M Tons of Grains as of July 8: Ministry

Ukraine harvested 1.1m tons of grains from 417,300 hectares (1.03m acres), Agriculture Ministry says on its website.

New harvest includes 717,800 tons of winter barley harvested from 254,000 hectares and 355,800 tons of wheat harvested across 147,900 hectares

Ukraine Corn Stockpiles to Rise Sixfold From Pre-War Level: FAO

Ukraine’s corn stockpiles in the 2022-23 season are expected to climb sixfold versus the 2020-21 year, before Russia’s invasion, as a result of war-related export disruptions, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization says in a report.

• The agency boosts its outlook for global coarse-grain stockpiles to 363.3m tons, up 6m tons from a month earlier
• Wheat stockpile outlook raised to 299.3m tons, up 1.5m tons
• Total grain stockpiles raised to 854.2m tons, up 7.6m tons
  • That would still be 5m tons lower y/y
• Global grain production forecast raised to 2.79b tons, up 7m tons
  • Raised on large corn plantings in China and India, and bigger-than-anticipated sowing in Ukraine
  • World wheat crop seen at 770.3m tons, slightly lower than last month
• World grains trade seen at about 468m tons, up 4.8m tons
  • Would still be the smallest amount in three seasons, largely due to reduced shipment prospects from Ukraine

Ukraine grain exports down 38.6% so far in 2022/23 season, ministry says

Ukraine’s grain exports in the first seven days of July, the first month of the new 2022/23 season, were down 38.6% year on year at 318,000 tonnes, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

Grain exports for the 2021/22 season ending June 30 rose 8.5% to 48.5 million tonnes, driven by strong shipments before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 invasion.

Ukraine’s grain exports have slumped since the start of the war because its Black Sea ports – a key route for shipments – have been largely closed off, driving up global food prices and prompting fears of shortages in Africa and the Middle East.

The ministry data showed the exports in July included 249,000 tonnes of corn, 52,000 tonnes of wheat and 15,000 tonnes of barley.

The government has said that Ukraine could harvest at least 50 million tonnes of grain this year, compared with a record 86 million tonnes in 2021, because of the loss of land to Russian forces and lower grain yields.

Indonesia Considers Lowering Palm Oil Exports Levy: Bisnis

Plan to lower palm oil export levy is meant to boost shipments, Bisnis Indonesia newspaper reported, citing Coordinating Minister of Investment and Maritime Affairs Luhut Panjaitan.

• Panjaitan said he has discussed the plan with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati
• Faster exports will reduce stockpiles and prompt companies to buy palm’s fresh fruit bunches which will push its prices
• NOTE: Indonesia Cuts Maximum Palm Oil Export Levy to Reduce Stocks
• Local government expects to collect at least 25 rupiah/kg retribution from FFB sales, said Yulhaidir, chairman of Indonesian palm oil producing district association
• Funds will be used to increase local govt revenue for regional development

Indonesia Plans to Increase Biodiesel Mandate to 35% at End-July

Indonesia plans to raise palm content in local gasoil to 35%, from 30%, at the end of this month, Dadan Kusdiana, director general of new and renewable energy at the energy and mineral resources ministry, said by text message.

India’s 2021-22 Edible Oil Imports May Decline 2.4% Y/y: Bajoria

Edible oil purchases by the world’s top importer will likely drop to 12.9 million tons in the year that began on Nov. 1, from 13.22 million a year earlier, according to Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Sunvin Group.

• Palm oil imports seen at 7.7m tons in 2021-22 vs 8.5m tons a year earlier, Bajoria said in a presentation prepared for an online seminar
• Soybean oil purchases could rise to 3.5m tons from 2.8m tons; sunflower oil imports likely at 1.7m tons vs 1.9m tons
• Edible oil consumption in India seen rising to about 21.9m tons in 2021-22 from 21.7m tons in 2020-21
  • Domestic cooking oil production may rise to 9.3m tons, from 8.5m tons
• NOTE: Palm Oil Halts Slump as China’s Stimulus Plan Aids Commodities

Egypt’s Government Buys German Wheat in Another Direct Deal

Egypt’s state-run buyer bought 63k tons of German wheat in direct negotiations with traders, according to people with direct knowledge of the transactions.

• NOTE: While Egypt’s government has historically secured wheat via tenders, it recently opened to private deals as well
• It typically sources most of the grain from Black Sea nations and France

Canada fertilizer sales to Brazil soar as farmers gear up for next crop season

Brazil imported record volumes of potassium chloride (Kcl) from Canada in the first half of the year, a sign that domestic farmers will have plenty of the fertilizer to nourish crops, boost yields and potentially expand area when sowing starts in September.

According to data compiled by consultancy Agrinvest Commodities and sent to Reuters on Thursday, Brazil imported 2.291 million tonnes of Canadian Kcl between January and June, a 71.2% annual rise.

“Canada only supplies potassium chloride to Brazil,” said Jeferson Souza, an Agrinvest analyst. “But the volume of Kcl imported by Brazil in the first half was so large that Canada became its second largest supplier of overall fertilizers in the period.”

Russia was the largest fertilizer supplier with China third, he added.

Imports of potassium chloride from Belarus fell by 16% to 949,708 tonnes, though it was still Brazil’s third biggest Kcl supplier even though Belarus was targeted by Western sanctions that could potentially disrupt trade.

Brazil Kcl imports from Russia, a country also hit with sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine, rose 27% to 1.935 million tonnes, the data show.

According to Souza, the Russians are selling fertilizers to Brazilian and U.S. importers, a situation “unthinkable” in the middle of March. Despite the war and sanctions, business is being conducted by Russia and cargos shipped.

With trade flows undeterred, growers in Brazil’s top grain state Mato Grosso have acquired practically all the nutrients they will need to start planting summer crops, Souza noted.

Some 45% of fertilizer consumption goes to nourish soybeans in Brazil, Souza said. Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of soybeans.

Next season, if climate conditions allow, Brazilian soybean farmers could boost output by 18.5% to nearly 148 million tonnes, according to a Reuters poll, which projects a potential area expansion of almost 3%.

Drought Exposure Rises in US Corn and Soybean Areas: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 5, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought rose 6 percentage points from the previous week to 29%
• Soybean drought area rose to 22% vs 15%
• Cotton up 7 percentage points to 68%

US Grain Movement by Rail Fell 8% Week Ended June 30: USDA

US Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 51% Last Week: USDA

Saskatchewan Says Warm Weather Needed To Boost Crop Growth

Many crops are behind their normal stages of development for this time of year, the province’s agriculture ministry says Thursday in a report.

• Warm temperatures would help crops advance and dry up fields
• 76% of fall cereals, 58% of spring cereals, 46% of oilseeds and 69% of pulse crops at normal development stage