Global Ag News for Feb 7.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Farmers in US to See Incomes Soar as Government Aid Swells

US farmers are expected to see a 30% surge in income this year in large part because of a huge increase in disaster payouts and other government aid.

Net farm income is expected to jump to $180.1 billion in 2025, the first rise in three years, the US Department of Agriculture said Thursday. A quadrupling in assistance payments to farmers and ranchers will account for more than 80% of that increase.

The agency’s first outlook for this calendar year also reflects slightly lower costs for animal feed, fertilizer and other production expenses.

Total crop receipts, however, are seen decreasing 2.3% from 2024, led by drops in soybeans and corn. Corn receipts are forecast to fall 4.3% due to lower prices and sales volumes, while soybean receipts are seen dropping almost 7%.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the income forecast is 8.9% below 2022’s record profits, but 45% above the 20-year average, according to the USDA.

Agricultural producers are pushing for greater access to crop-insurance payments under the federal legislation, most recently at a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing on Wednesday.

Growers, who are eligible for government payments under the Price Loss Coverage program when crop prices fall below so-called reference prices, say the thresholds haven’t kept up with inflation.

National Sorghum Producers Chair Amy France called it the “highest priority” for both farmers and lenders, while Garrett Moore of the US Peanut Federation said that the reference price for peanuts “has not been a functional safety net” since the 2021 crop year.

A higher reference price would “likely do more than any other single Farm Bill reform to reassure farm lenders,” Nathan Reed, an Arkansas-based grower and a National Cotton Council board member, said at the hearing. Cotton costs of production are about 25% higher than the support levels in the 2018 Farm Bill, he added.

“If Congress does not act quickly to provide an adequate safety net, I’ll be forced to answer a few very difficult questions,” Reed said. “Am I putting my family’s future at risk by continuing the tradition of farming? What happens to my local community without the backbone of agriculture? And perhaps an even bigger question, what happens to our country if we lose our ability to produce the food and fiber we need?”

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil unchanged.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 27 1/4 in SRW, up 29 in HRW, up 15 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 11 3/4; Soybeans up 15 1/4; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil down 0.72.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 6.4% in SRW, up 8.8% in HRW, up 5.9% in HRS; Corn is up 7.7%; Soybeans up 5.9%; Soymeal down 0.8%; Soyoil up 14.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal down 13; Soyoil up 160; Palm oil up 158; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is up 101.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 101 ringgit (+2.29%) at 4504.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 6 were: SRW Wheat down 999 contracts, HRW Wheat up 925, Corn down 2,171, Soybeans up 12,116, Soymeal down 1,945, Soyoil up 5,791.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES:

• NORTH AMERICA: The recent forecasts are trending colder for the U.S. Central Plains in the next week, with a temporarily more advanced outbreak.
• SOUTH AMERICA: For the next 2 weeks, unfavorable dryness is the most probable scenario across sugarcane areas in North and South-Central Brazil
• EUROPE: A cold snap expected in Europe should be neutral for dormant wheat, as the temperature minima will not reach damaging levels
• BLACK SEA: A strong cold outbreak is expected over Russia between 16-20 February and further forecasts require attention in terms of winterkill risks
• TROPICS: Tropical Cyclone Vince is strengthening to severe levels (Cat. 3.) over the Indian Ocean, but poses no threat to the land

ARGENTINA: Excessive heat will continue across the northern and northwest Pampas through the next 5 days (5-8 °C above normal), but a cooling trend is expected to arrive in the next week. Only the southeastern Pampas will observe relatively mild temperatures throughout the next 10 days (down to 1-3 °C below normal). Precipitation activity will be scarce over the next 5 days, but the cooling trend will bring increasing rainfall – currently estimated between 10-50 mm above normal in the next week along the central/northern Pampas. Warm and dry conditions are likely to return in the week after next (17-25 Feb).

BRAZIL: Warmer-than-normal conditions should prevail throughout the next 10 days across most of Brazil, with mild anomalies in Central West and 2-4 °C above normal in the Southeast and South. As for precipitation, a persistently divided rainfall pattern is expected throughout the next 10 days in most of the country. The main activity will be focused on Northwest, North and western areas, while the Central, East, and Southeast will observe dry conditions. Dryness is also likely to dominate in the South for the next 5-6 days, but there is a high chance for wetter conditions starting mid-next week (mostly in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Caterina, up to 10-30 mm above normal during 6-15 day timeframe).

 

The player sheet for Feb. 6 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FOOD WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 96,725 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean group SPC has purchased an estimated 30,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Canada, European traders said. The purchase made on Wednesday involved an estimated 22,700 tons sourced from the United States and 7,300 tons from Canada, with a range of different wheat types all bought for April shipment.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 63,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 75,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• OFFERS IN RICE TENDER: The lowest price offered in the tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice which closed on Thursday was assessed at $434.77 a metric ton CIF liner out
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender to buy up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which closed on Thursday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley and 35,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 30, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 209k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 260k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 145k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following  shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 30, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 21k tons of the 50.7k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Trump USTR nominee Greer says a “universal tariff” is under consideration

Citing a trade deficit, Jamieson Greer, the nominee for U.S. Trade Representative, told U.S. senators that he is looking at the potential of universal tariffs.

“A universal tariffs is something that should be studied and considered to see if it can reverse the direction of that deficit,” Greer said at his Senate Finance committee confirmation hearing.

 

USDA Sees 2025 Farm Income Rising by 30% From Year Ago

The USDA expects farmer profits to be $180.1b in 2025, an increase of of $41b from 2024, according to the agency’s Farm Income and Financial Forecasts report, released on Thursday.

• This would be the highest level since 2022
• Gross income est. seen up 6.5% from 2024, while total expenses down by 0.6%
• Govt aid to farmers seen rising by 354.5% y/y

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 617k tons in the week ending Feb. 1 from 653k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 22.6% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 31.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $15.88 per short ton, an increase of $1.12 from the previous wee

 

 

 

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