Global Ag News for Feb 6.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Bird Flu Strain Seen in Dairy Cattle for First Time: USDA

A bird flu strain was newly detected in dairy cattle in Nevada on Jan. 31, the US Department of Agriculture said Wednesday.

• The D1.1 strain is the “predominant genotype in the North American flyways this past fall and winter,” and has already been identified in wild birds, mammals and domestic poultry, according to the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
  • All prior detections of bird flu in dairy cattle were genotype B3.13
• Farms in two Nevada counties have been placed under quarantine, the Nevada Department of Agriculture said in a Jan. 31 statement
• Strain was detected under the USDA’s national milk testing strategy, which began last December

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil up 0.32.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 15 1/4 in SRW, up 14 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/4; Soybeans up 23 1/4; Soymeal up $8.20; Soyoil down 0.65.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 in SRW, up 15 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/4; Soybeans up 23 1/2; Soymeal up $9.30; Soyoil down 0.70.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 4.2% in SRW, up 6.2% in HRW, up 3.9% in HRS; Corn is up 8.0%; Soybeans up 6.7%; Soymeal up 0.6%; Soyoil up 14.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 78; Palm oil up 58; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 69.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 69 ringgit (+1.59%) at 4403.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 5 were: SRW Wheat up 1,429 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,502, Corn up 11,822, Soybeans down 5,107, Soymeal up 1,931, Soyoil down 1,051.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers in central Brazil are easing up from east to west across the region this week, offering up another window for fieldwork to get done. However, showers will still be going across productive areas in the west and could lengthen delays for some. Showers are forecast to extend their coverage next week. Fieldwork is well behind the normal pace and the window is very short for making for timely planting of safrinha corn, which is being watched closely.

Argentina: A front will move through southern areas on Wednesday, bringing through some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help to stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of hot and dry weather will follow for late week and weekend. A front will move through next week, though precipitation chances are uncertain, but unlikely to be very widespread or helpful.

Northern Plains: Cold air will be hard to get rid of this month. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well, especially this week and weekend. Any and all precipitation will help the drought situation.

Central/Southern Plains: A cold front has dropped into the region, bringing some milder air to northern areas. But it remains very warm to the south. A system will develop along the front on Wednesday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to the east of the region. The same goes for another this weekend. The weather pattern will be active though, bringing through many chances for precipitation this month. A shot of cold air will move down through the region next week and if wheat areas remain uncovered by snow, it could cause further concerns with winterkill.

Midwest: Very warm air is in place across most of the region, though it’s colder in the northwest. A system will develop on Wednesday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region and another will do something very similar this weekend. Cold air hanging out in the Northern Plains will eventually move into the region next week, replacing the general warmth this week. That pushes the storm track to the south, but will still clip at least the southern end of the region with precipitation.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 5 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• NEW-CROP CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 330,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• U.S. WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 85,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• FOOD WHEAT PURCHSE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 96,725 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley and 35,000 tons of soymeal, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tenders is Thursday, February 6, they said. The new announcement is seen as indicating that Algeria made no significant purchases in previous international tenders for the same tonnages of corn, barley and soymeal which closed on Tuesday
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa only
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley on Thursday.
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have rejected offers and made no purchase in international tenders this week seeking around 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley that closed on Wednesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Jan. 30.

• Corn est. range 850k – 1,500k tons, with avg of 1,133k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 1,100k tons, with avg of 633k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.7% to 26.412M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.945 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.112m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.056m

 

Traders set to export 2.15 million tons of Ukrainian corn in February, farm association says

Ukraine exported 2.5 million metric tons of corn in January with contracts agreed by traders for a further 2.15 million tons in February, the Ukrainian Agrarian Council farm association said on Thursday.

Ukraine harvested about 26 million tons of corn in 2024 and its exportable surplus for the 2024/25 season is 22 million tons.

The country has exported 12.4 million tons of corn so far this season, farm ministry data showed.

 

Bottleneck at key Brazil grains transshipment facility clears

Operations at a large grain transshipment hub linking the heart of Brazil’s farm country to the port of Santos have returned to normal after being disrupted by thousands of trucks unable to quickly unload grains, a truckers’ transportation lobby told Reuters on Wednesday.

Lines with as many as 3,500 trucks had formed at the Rondonopolis facility in Mato Grosso, which is operated by Rumo, according to a statement on Tuesday from ANATC, which represents 2.2 million truckers.

“The situation is alarming. Unloading time can take up to 24 or even 48 hours,” Carley Welter, institutional director at ANATC, said in the Tuesday statement.

Rumo said on Wednesday truck lines formed at Rondonopolis in late January but noted that the situation has been resolved, with no bottlenecks.

“The unloading system works through a scheduling service and truck drivers’ punctuality is key to avoid queues and minimize waiting time,” Rumo said.

Logistics disruptions come as Brazil’s soybean export program is off to a slow start. According to shipping data, Brazil’s soy exports in January fell to 1.3 million metric tons from 2.4 million tons in the same month last year.

Grains exporters’ lobby Anec said on Wednesday that rains have disrupted soy harvesting, the flow of trucks and ship loading times, which could reduce Brazil’s soy export volumes in February.

Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean producer and exporter, will harvest a record soy crop of about 170 million metric tons in 2025.

It is expected to ship some 7 million tons more than last year, according to oilseed lobby Abiove. Brazil competes with the United States and Argentina in global markets, sending most of its soy to China.

A fire broke out at Rumo’s Rondonopolis facility last week. The firm reiterated that operations were continued after it was controlled, without providing details on any impact on operations.

More than eight trains leave daily from Rumo’s facility to Santos, each loaded with more than 11,500 tons of grain, it said.

Mato Grosso, Brazil’s biggest soy state, should reap around 47 million tons this year.

 

Rabobank projects record soybean crop in Brazil in 2024/25

Rabobank on Wednesday joined several agribusiness consultancies in predicting that Brazil will harvest a record soybean crop in 2024/25, saying that output of the oilseed should total 170 million metric tons this season.

That would be 15 million tons more than in 2023/24, when farmers in the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter grappled with adverse weather conditions.

Improved weather this season should help yields recover and allow for a record crop even if uncertainties remain in some key areas such as Rio Grande do Sul state, which has been facing hot and dry conditions, Rabobank analyst Marcela Marini said.

Marini noted on a live broadcast with industry group Ocepar that the crop in the top-producing state of Mato Grosso was “coming out pretty well” while in neighboring Goias state conditions were “excellent”.

Several firms including Celeres, StoneX, AgRural, Hedgepoint, Safras & Mercado, Agroconsult and AgResource have forecast Brazil’s soybean crop to top 170 million tons this season.

Rabobank also estimated exports to total 103 million tons and local soybean crushing to hit 56.5 million tons in 2025, up from 98 million and 55 million in the previous year, respectively.

Eyes are now on potential soybean harvest delays that may impact sowing of Brazil’s second corn crop, as they could narrow the window for planting and make corn more exposed to climate risks.

Brazil’s second corn is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas and represents about 75% of national production in a given year.

Rabobank estimated Brazil’s total corn production in 2024/25 to reach 126 million tons, up from 122 million in the previous cycle, but warned of delays especially in Mato Grosso state.

“Corn planting in most regions should be done by the end of February, but it is super delayed,” Marini said.

 

Mexico Issues Decree Reverting Ban on GMO Corn Use

Government removed restrictions to use GMO corn for human consumption in accordance with a recent USMCA dispute panel ruling, Mexico’s official gazette showed.

 

Cargill Buys Biofuels Supplier as It Seeks to Grow Beyond Grains

• Brazil’s SJC Bioenergia produces sugar, biofuels in two mills
• Brazil is expanding blend of ethanol in regular gasoline

The world’s largest agricultural commodities trader Cargill Inc. is boosting its renewable fuels and sugar operation in Brazil after a period of shrinking earnings as the price of corn and soybeans tumbled.

The largest privately held company in the US agreed to buy another 50% stake of SJC Bioenergia, giving it full ownership, Cargill said. Neither company revealed terms.

The move comes as the Brazilian government is expanding the use of biofuels. It also helps Cargill diversify after the company missed profit targets due to falling grain prices and cut about 5% of its global workforce.

“Having SJC as a company 100% controlled by Cargill is an important reinforcement of our growth strategy in renewable energies,” Paulo Sousa, president at Cargill in Brazil, said in a statement.

SJC turns sugarcane and corn into raw sugar, ethanol, corn oil and DDG, a byproduct of corn ethanol used for animal feed. It has two mills in the state of Goias, with the capacity to crush 9 million tons of sugarcane a year.

Cargill expanded its animal nutrition portfolio last year in partnership with the major Brazilian farming cooperative Coamo. In the US, Cargill has spent much of the past decade becoming the third-largest US beef processor.

 

 

 

 

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