Global Ag News For Feb 4.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Ukrainian winter crops not hurt by weather in January, forecasters say

January weather conditions did not have a negative impact on Ukrainian winter crops despite severe frosts in the last week of the month, state weather forecasters said on Tuesday.

Ukraine is a producer of winter wheat, which accounts for about 95% of the total Ukrainian wheat harvest. Winter wheat, which has a higher yield than spring wheat, is sown in autumn and harvested in the summer of the following year.

“The minimum soil temperature at the depth of the tillering node of winter crops… was above the critical freezing temperature,” forecasters said in a report.

The forecasters said that as a result of temperature fluctuations and rainfall, many fields in the central and eastern Ukraine were covered by ice crust, prolonged exposure to which can seriously damage plants.

Forecasters have not yet assessed the impact on plants of the extreme frosts that hit Ukraine earlier this week, with temperatures expected to drop to minus 30 degrees Celsius (minus 22 degrees Fahrenheit).

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil up 0.04.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 11 1/2 in SRW, down 13 3/4 in HRW, down 1/9 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $3.60; Soyoil up 1.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3.8% in SRW, up 3.2% in HRW, down 1.1% in HRS; Corn is down 3.0%; Soybeans up 3.1%; Soymeal down 1.5%; Soyoil up 13.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 21 yuan; Soymeal down 11; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil up 66; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 7.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 7 ringgit (+0.17%) at 4222.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 3 were: SRW Wheat up 5,484 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,490, Corn up 4,897, Soybeans up 2,670, Soymeal up 5,403, Soyoil up 11,290.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 04 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Above‑normal temperatures are expected across the Plains, with wetter conditions in the Northern Plains and the Northwest, and drier weather elsewhere in the U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool and mostly wet conditions will persist across the northern and central corn and soybean belts of the Pampas, whereas central Brazil is expected to experience moderate conditions that may be favorable.
• EUROPE: Central/Western Europe will see above-normal temperatures over the next 10 days. Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected across Western/Central Europe.
• ASIA: Southeast Asia and India are expected to experience mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with warmer conditions across China/Japan. Dry weather will dominate Asia, except for brief wet spells in Southeast Asia and east China.
• AFRICA: Rains may delay cocoa harvesting in southern West Africa, while wet spells continue across the Free State regions in South Africa’s corn belt.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The MJO forecast indicates an inactive Phase 8, which is not expected to support active tropical weather over the next 15 days.

 

WARMING AND SNOWMELT ARE SET TO ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WINTER WHEAT AREAS

Weather anomaly severity: High

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat, Orange

Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens up to 10 days, AIFS for 11-15 day

Forecast confidence: High from day 1 to 5; Moderate from day 6 to 15

Forecast change: Warmer across Plains/Central U.S. for  08-17 February

 

Brazil: Heavy rain fell in central Brazil over the weekend and continues this week, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning if the rains aren’t consistently heavier over the next two months.

Argentina: Dryness concerns continue to mount, especially across the central and south. However, a front will move into southern areas on Wednesday and produce some showers through Friday, which will be somewhat helpful. The weather pattern for February indeed looks more active, which could be helpful depending on how rain develops. If the rain fails, crop conditions will continue to fall and later-planted crops will feel the stress after a very dry January.

Northern Plains: Warmer air will stick around all week and is forecast for next week, too. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

Central/Southern Plains: Cold air was pushed out of the region over the weekend. Relatively warm temperatures this week should melt the remaining snow. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for at least a little while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

Midwest: Southern areas will see a streak of snow on Tuesday. Temperatures will try to rise this week, but eastern areas are not likely to see above-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air is likely to win out next week, however.

Delta: It was dry over the weekend, but very cold. Ice moving through the river systems are creating some issues for transportation. A system will move through on Tuesday with scattered showers, but precipitation appears to be lighter until at least next week. Water levels should drop again after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues of their own.

 

The player sheet for 2/3 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 134,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 207,000 tons on Tuesday, European traders said.
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Algerian state agency OAIC is believed to have purchased animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. The volume purchased was unclear. The tender had sought a nominal 50,000 metric tons.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday, European traders said. A new tender seeking up to 120,000 tons of wheat is expected to be issued in coming days and anticipated to close on February 10, traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 10. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 30 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 965k b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.66m bbl vs 25.4m a week ago

 

US issues proposed rule for clean fuel tax credit

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday issued a proposed rule governing how biofuel makers can access a $1-per-gallon tax credit for low-carbon transportation fuels, including aviation fuel.

The rule was welcomed by biofuel trade groups that said the plan could provide more certainty for producers of ethanol, biodiesel and other products seeking the credit.

The program, dubbed 45Z, was created under former President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and was amended last year in President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.

Changes included allowing for low-carbon fuel produced with feedstocks grown in Canada and Mexico as well as tweaks to the methodology for calculating a feedstock’s land use intensity.

“Today’s 45Z proposed rule is a step in the right direction toward providing the clarity and certainty that ethanol producers are seeking,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association.

He said some questions about the program remained unanswered, however, including the makeup of a revised climate model that could impact fuel eligibility and the implementation of foreign feedstock prohibitions.

Representatives for soy farmers also welcomed the rule.

“Updating federal biofuel policies to prioritize soy-based fuels is a key ASA priority, and we applaud Treasury for this action which will help build domestic markets for U.S. soybeans,” said Scott Metzger, president of the American Soybean Association.

 

Ethanol Heavyweight to Boost Sales of Distillers Grains to China

One of the world’s top corn ethanol makers, South America’s Inpasa Agroindustrial SA, expects strong exports of distillers grains following the first purchases by China of the animal feed ingredient made in Brazil.

With units in Brazil and Paraguay, Inpasa says it has already negotiated a total of 250,000 tons of distillers grains with Chinese buyers this year, Gustavo Mariano, the group’s vice president of trading, said in an interview Tuesday.

The company sees Brazil replacing the US as China’s main supplier of the ingredient, with buyers in the Asian country soon representing nearly half of Inpasa’s total overseas shipments.

“In Brazil, the industry as a whole has been preparing itself, but obviously it’s taking advantage of an opportunity related to international geopolitical issues that have opened this door for Brazil to position itself within the Chinese market,” Mariano said.

Chinese imports of DDGs peaked at nearly 7 million metric tons in 2015, most of it coming from the US, but have slumped in recent years after the imposition of anti-dumping duties. Beijing agreed to open its market to Brazil’s suppliers of the feed ingredient in mid-2025, and other local companies such as producer FS are also readying shipments to China.

Inpasa’s first vessel carrying 62,000 metric tons of the product known as DDGS will sail out of the southern port of Imbituba in the coming days.

 

Huge Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Finally Show Signs of Easing

Malaysia’s massive palm oil stockpiles are likely to have fallen in January as weaker production and firmer exports began to draw down inventories, according to a survey.

Reserves were projected to have declined 5.2% to 2.89 million tons, the median of nine estimates from plantation executives, traders and analysts showed, which would mark the first monthly drop in almost a year. Reserves had surged in December to the highest since early 2019.

Crude palm oil production likely fell 11.5% to 1.62 million tons in January, while exports were forecast to have risen 7.6% to 1.42 million tons, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month.

Markets are watching closely to see how far output may continue to fall, after declines in recent months were limited, said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. Sustained declines in production would reduce stockpiles and support palm oil prices.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will publish its monthly data on Feb. 10.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur climbed as much as 1% to 4,255 ringgit ($1,084) a ton before trading at 4,227 ringgit as of 3:21 p.m.

 

China’s ‘No. 1 document’ pushes grain security, agri-tech innovation

• China highlights diversification in annual rural policy blueprint
• Soybean strategy shifts to boosting yield and quality over expanding acreage, analyst says
• Agri-tech innovation, meat sector stabilization stay central priorities

China will stabilise grain and oilseed output, diversify agricultural imports and increase support for farmers, state media reported on Tuesday, citing a government rural policy blueprint aimed at ensuring food security.

The State Council’s “No. 1 document” comes as China prepares its next five-year plan amid trade friction with major food suppliers such as the U.S. and Canada, alongside a domestic economic slowdown and climate challenges.

Although China recorded record grain output last year, it remains heavily reliant on imports. Trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., have accelerated efforts towards self-sufficiency, including investments in machinery and seed technology.

 

Brazil on track for ethanol production jump in 2026, experts say

Healthy ethanol prices, expansion of corn ethanol plants and an expected large sugarcane crop will lead to a jump this year in output of the biofuel in Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer, analysts and commodities traders said on Tuesday.

They said during a panel at the Dubai Sugar Conference that the increased output this year will be due to the combination of Brazilian sugarcane processors switching to make more ethanol and less sugar and new corn processing plants coming online.

Sugarcane mills, which have the flexibility to produce more sugar or more ethanol, are dealing with low global sugar prices, with the raw sugar contract in New York SBc1 hovering around a five-year low.

“There is clear incentive for mills to start the new season making more ethanol,” said Guilherme Nastari, a director at sugar consultancy Datagro.

Current ethanol prices in Brazil, he said, are trading at large premiums over New York sugar, with anhydrous ethanol at the equivalent of 19.73 cents per pound and hydrous ethanol at 17.96 cents/lb, while ICE raw sugar closed on Tuesday at 14.63 cents/lb.

The new Brazilian sugarcane harvest kicks off around March.

“The initial (sugar/ethanol) price parity is much in favor of ethanol,” said Jeremy Austin, general director at Sucden’s Brazilian arm.

Sugar and ethanol consultancy CovrigAnalytics believes mills will focus on ethanol until at least around the middle of June.

BP Bioenergy, the Brazilian sugar and ethanol division of BP Plc BP.L that manages 11 mills, will plan its production mix as the year progresses, looking at prices, said Ricardo Carvalho, the division’s commercial director.

Rabobank projects more than 3 billion liters of additional corn ethanol capacity will come online in 2026.

U.S.-based broker StoneX estimates Brazil’s combined cane and corn ethanol production will grow 7.9% in 2026/2027 (April-March) to 36.5 billion liters, with cane ethanol up 4.4% and corn ethanol up 17%.

The extra ethanol production might be too much for the local Brazilian market, Carvalho said.

It may drive an increase in exports, CovrigAnalytics noted.

 

MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Up 24.3% From Year Ago: Feb. 1

Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses rose y/y to 16.267m bushels in the week ending Feb. 1, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.

• Compared to the previous week, stockpiles rose by 256k bu
• Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses down 41k bu from the previous week

 

US Meat Exporters Focus on Korea, Japan After China Market Loss

The US Meat Export Federation is focusing promotion efforts in Korea and Japan to offset the loss of the market in China, which last year did not renew registrations for most US plants, Scott Reynolds, the group’s assistant vice president of marketing programs, said at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s annual conference in Nashville.

• Beef exports from January through November in terms of quantity were down 12% year-over-year, led by a 64% drop in shipments to China, according to a USMEF report
  • Korea and Japan are the two biggest markets for American beef, valued at $2B and $1.6B respectively
• Korean exports were up 1% y/y in terms of quantity
• USMEF has focused on retail, including rolling out portion-controlled short plate and frozen top blade products
• Japanese shipments were down 2%
  • Higher price points have created some pressure on demand, but there’s opportunity to reinforce value as only 6% of consumers recognize USDA prime products compared with the over 40% that know what A5 wagyu is: Reynolds
• Shipments to Africa also rose 10% y/y, led by gains in Ivory Coast and Morocco, though the overall market remains small at $19M

 

Former US agriculture officials, top Republican senator warn of farm country trouble

The chair of the U.S. Senate’s agriculture committee warned on Tuesday that farmers were suffering heavy losses, while more than two dozen former industry leaders sounded the alarm about the risk of a “widespread collapse of American agriculture” ahead of a $12 billion government bailout expected to reach growers this month.

For three years, the costs of seed, fertilizer and other farm inputs rose, while plentiful grain supplies limited profits for farmers, economists said. Then, President Donald Trump returned to office last year, sparking trade disputes that disrupted U.S. crop exports and immigration crackdowns that increased labor costs and left some farms with crops rotting in fields.

Many farmers are now bracing to potentially lose money for a fourth consecutive year. Tough credit conditions are forcing those with limited cash flows to make decisions about what acres to plant and how much fertilizer to buy, economists said.

BY THE NUMBERS

• Former USDA and industry officials said in a letter to U.S. lawmakers that Trump administration policies harmed farmers.
• The Trump administration announced the $12 billion aid program last year, but it will only cover a fraction of farmers’ losses, agricultural economists and bankers said.
• The USDA said in a statement to Reuters that Trump was using every tool available to support farmers and ensure they have what they need to continue farming operations.
• U.S. Senator John Boozman, a Republican from Arkansas who chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee, said in a webcast of a conference of state agriculture officials in Washington on Tuesday that farmers growing crops are “losing money, lots of money.”
• Bankers reported a nearly 40% jump in new farm operating loans in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to a year earlier, according to a Federal Reserve survey.
• The average size of such operating notes was 30% bigger during 2025 than a year earlier, according to an analysis of the data by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City staff.
• The percentage of farmers expecting bad financial times in the next year jumped to 59% in January from 47% in December, according to a survey released Tuesday by Purdue University and CME Group CME.O.
• The percentage of producers who thought U.S. agriculture would have widespread bad times during the next five years climbed to 46% from 24% a month earlier, the survey found.

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in January: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 113 points in Jan. from 136 in Dec., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• This is the biggest monthly decrease since April 2020
• Current conditions component declined by 19 points from Dec.
• Future expectations down by 25 points
• “The percentage of producers who expected there to be bad financial times in the next twelve months increased from 47% in December 2025 to 59% in January 2026, while the percentage of producers who thought US agriculture would have widespread bad times during the next five years increased from 24% to 46%,” according to Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture

 

USDA to Buy 211K Tons of US Commodities for Food for Peace

The US Department of Agriculture plans to buy 211k tons of commodities for food banks and aid programs, the agency said in a Tuesday statement.

• Purchases made to include up to $452 million of US-grown food for people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Kenya and Rwanda
• Represents an agreement with the UN World Food Programme

 

 

 

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