Global Ag News for Feb 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Agriculture Powerhouse US Has Never Imported So Much Food

The US, known for being a global agriculture powerhouse, has never imported so much food.

Inbound shipments of everything from avocados to coffee and sugar are expected to drive the country’s agriculture trade deficit to a record $49 billion this year, the US Department of Agriculture said in its trade outlook report. At the same time, America’s most widely grown crops have been losing overseas markets over the past decades.

It’s a stark turnaround for a nation that once used its abundant food supplies as a tool of statecraft, with the US now facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits. The country imported more food than exported every year since 2023. Before then, the only other annual deficits were in 2019 and 2020, during President Donald Trump’s trade war with China, and several years prior to 1960.

Trump has pledged 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada goods from March, along with an additional 10% tax on China’s goods. That could make things worse, raising the cost of importing food if countries retaliate and farming goods get caught in the cross hairs.

American imports of farm goods are forecast to climb 6.5% in the year ending Sept. 30 to $219.5 billion, with inbound shipments of avocados, orange juice and coffee accounting for much of the increase, the USDA said. Exports are forecast at $170.5 billion, 2.2% lower than a year earlier.

“Avocado imports from Mexico, the largest commodity in terms of import volume, are expected to increase on strong demand and improved growing conditions,” the USDA said.

Pricey cocoa and sugar are also adding to the import bill. And while some grain exports are expected to rise, traditional American crops have been losing allure overseas for years, with Russia overtaking the US as the world’s top wheat shipper and Brazil surpassing the US as the biggest exporter of corn, cotton and soybeans.

The USDA’s outlook was based on policies in effect as of Feb. 11 — it doesn’t include the 70 million to 100 million eggs the nation will look to import to address record prices and the worst-ever outbreak of avian influenza.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil up 0.06.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 37 1/2 in SRW, down 33 1/4 in HRW, down 39 in HRS; Corn is down 23; Soybeans down 16 3/4; Soymeal down $3.20; Soyoil down 1.93.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 15 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 11; Soybeans down 17; Soymeal down $8.90; Soyoil down 1.11.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.9% in SRW, up 2.3% in HRW, down 1.1% in HRS; Corn is up 1.7%; Soybeans up 3.1%; Soymeal down 5.1%; Soyoil up 12.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 49 yuan; Soymeal up 19; Soyoil up 60; Palm oil down 34; Corn up 11 — Malaysian Palm is up 43.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 43 ringgit (+0.95%) at 4554.

There were changes in registrations (446 SRW Wheat, -15 Soybeans, 114 Soyoil, 350 Soymeal, 300 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 79 Soybeans; 1,230 Soyoil; 1,812 Soymeal; 405 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 27 were: SRW Wheat up 7,398 contracts, HRW Wheat down 76, Corn down 23,493, Soybeans down 20,024, Soymeal up 4,341, Soyoil up 97.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 28 FEBRUARY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The recent EC monthly forecast confirms prevailing warmth across the U.S. through most of March, with active rainfall pattern over the Midwest
• SOUTH AMERICA: Increasingly wet conditions in the next week across the Argentinian Pampas may cause local flooding and affect early corn harvest
• EUROPE: A slow warming trend is expected over Western Europe through the next 10 days, with dry conditions over the major crop areas of France
• BLACK SEA: The ongoing cold spell in Southern Russia should have a minimal impact on winter crops but dryness is likely to remain in place through most of March

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE

What to Watch:

• Warm and dry weather in Brazil
• Very heavy precipitation expected in Argentina

FORECAST

Discussion: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is expected to meander around a neutral level during the next two weeks. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to retreat towards a dormant level during this time, and as such will have diminished impacts on global weather patterns. Regarding numerical model performance, the GFS has been outperforming the EC for temperature forecasts as of late in Argentina, while the opposite is true for precipitation. In Brazil, the model performance between the GFS and EC has been converging and in general has been increasing in performance for both temperatures and precipitation.

Argentina: Warmth between 1-2 °C above normal is expected across the Pampas region of Argentina during the next 5 days. This will change in the 6-10 day period, when warmer conditions up to 4.5 °C above normal take hold of eastern parts of the region, while near normal conditions prevail in western parts. Cooler conditions may take hold in the 11-15 day period across the region. As for precipitation, there is a large consensus for heavy precipitation across the Pampas region during the next 10 days, with anomalies during this time likely ranging between 50-175 mm above normal across the majority of the region. Currently, Buenos Aires and Cordoba are expected to receive the largest totals, though that may shift as the forecast evolves. This upcoming wet weather should favor any corn/soy crops still in development stages.

Brazil: Widespread warmth between 2-6 °C above normal is expected across most of the Center West, South, and Southeast during the next 10-15 days, with the largest anomalies spanning from Goias through Rio Grande do Sul through the next 10 days. Northern Brazil will experience closer to normal conditions during this time. As for precipitation, very dry conditions are expected across the Center West, Southeast, and South of Brazil during the next two weeks, with anomalies ranging between 25-75 mm below normal. The northern one-third of the country, on the other hand, is expected to receive widespread high totals between 25-75 mm above normal, with locally higher anomalies up to 150 mm above normal. Beyond 10 days, the latest EC extended run depicts a similar pattern persisting through much of the next 4 weeks. Overall, widespread warm and dry weather will favor upcoming harvest activities and second corn plantings, while acting unfavorable for any remaining developing corn/soy crops as well as coffee/sugarcane.

 

Northern Plains: Temperatures remain on the warmer side into early next week. Even as clipper systems pass by the region through the rest of this week, precipitation will remain light and most areas will remain on the drier side. A larger system from the West could provide more widespread showers early next week, but in the wake of this system, temperatures are likely to fall closer to average.

Central/Southern Plains: Temperatures will be on the warmer side into early next week, which could promote greening of winter wheat. A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south and a larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers. Temperatures will take a brief dip below normal later next week in the wake of the larger system, but the cold won’t be as intense as the mid-February arctic blast.

Midwest: Snow cover will continue to diminish through the rest of the week with warmer temperatures in place. A few more clippers will continue to pass through over the next few days, but with overall limited precipitation and potentially breezy conditions. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. A larger system is forecast for the middle of next week that could provide a band of heavy snow, followed by milder air.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels should start falling this weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. The risk for heavier rain and severe thunderstorms returns through the first half of next week with a cool down expected afterwards.

 

Dryness in the Black Sea region may persist until late March

What to Watch:

• Observed cold snap in the Black Sea region unlikely to harm winter wheat
• Weak rains and dryness may remain the main concern for crops across Ukraine and Russia in March
• A slow warming trend is expected in E.U. countries, mostly with dry conditions

 

The player sheet for Feb. 27 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 24,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 133,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Thursday
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn on Thursday in an international tender seeking up to 140,000 tons.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• SOFT MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 25,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 120,000 tons of soymeal.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 414.5K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 923K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Feb. 20.

• Corn sales fell to 923k tons vs 1,454k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 415k tons vs 500k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 274k tons vs 631k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 202k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 379k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Taiwan with 103k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 13.3k tons of the 32.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

CROP SURVEY: US Soybean Crush and Corn for Ethanol

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 210.9m bu in Jan., an 8.2% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of January seen at 1.757b lbs, down from 2.029b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen up 5.6% y/y to 465.8m bu
• The USDA is scheduled to release its January Fats and Oils report along with the Grain Crushings report on March 3 at 3pm

 

Argentina Soy Condition Improves After Rains: Grain Exchange

Rains in the key central belt of Argentina’s agricultural region over the last few days are helping both early and late-planted soybeans, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• Soy in a good or excellent condition jumped to 24% from 17% last week
• Soy production estimate was kept at 49.6m metric tons
• Early yields from the corn harvest that just started are set to produce a crop of 49m tons, unchanged w/w

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates Feb. 27: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• No changes to 2024-25 corn, soybean production
• Corn harvest at 5.4% complete

 

Canada Crushed 1.011M Tons of Canola in January: StatsCan

Canola processing rose 7.9% in January from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Thursday on agency’s website.

• Oil production totaled 424k tons, and meal output at 591k tons
• Aug.-Jan. crushings up 7.5% from year ago to 5.93m tons
• NOTE: Canada is the world’s top canola grower

 

South Africa Sees 2025 Total Corn Crop 8.3% Bigger Than 2024

The total commercial corn crop for 2025 is projected at 13.9 million tons compared with 12.85 million ton in the previous season, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee says in its production forecast for the year.

• The yield for corn is 5.36 tons/hectare
• The revised area estimate for corn is 2.6 million hectares, which is 1.5% smaller than  in the previous season
• The production forecast of white corn is 7.4 million tons, which is 22% bigger y/y
• The yellow-corn production forecast is 6.5 million tons, which is 4.1% smaller y/y
• The expected production of wheat for the 2024 season is still 1.9 million tons

 

EU Trims Total Grain Crop Forecast to 255.2m Tons for 2024-25

The EU’s total grain production will be 255.2m tons in the 2024-25 season, a slight reduction from the previous forecast of 255.8m tons, the European Commission said in a report.

• Soft wheat seen at 111.8m tons, down from 111.9m tons
• Barley seen at 49.2m tons, down from 49.4m tons
• Corn at 59.3m tons, down from 59.5m tons

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Slightly Down This Season Y/y

Ukraine’s total grain exports for the season that started in July 1 reached almost 29m tons, 1% lower than the same period last year, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• Grain exports in February alone so far totaled about 3.2m tons, around 40% less than the same period last year
• The season’s exports so far include:
  • 11.9m tons of wheat, up 3% y/y
  • 2.1m tons of barley, up 33% y/y
  • 14.4m tons of corn, down around 9% y/y
• NOTE: Ukraine’s January exports totaled about 3.3m tons, nearly a third less than the same period last year

 

IKAR reduces forecast for Russia’s wheat exports by 500,000 tonnes to 42.5 mln tonnes this agricultural year

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports this agricultural year from July 2024 to June 2025 by 500,000 tonnes to 42.5 million tonnes, and IKAR has reduced several indicators of the “forecast range” for the wheat harvest in 2025.

Currency fluctuations have caused the reduction in the estimate for exports, IKAR CEO Dmitry Rylko told Interfax. “The ruble exchange rate is undermining us,” he explained.

The new estimate for the wheat harvest this year is 77-81-85 million tonnes against the previous estimate of 77-82-87 million tonnes.

“We see much negativity from farmers regarding wheat, which could ultimately affect the results. This specifically involves a possible reduction in sown areas and a reduction in the application of fertilizers,” Rylko said.

 

French Soft-Wheat Ratings Steady, Higher Than Last Year: AgriMer

Some 73% of France’s soft-wheat crop was rated in good or very good condition as of Feb. 24, a percentage point lower than the previous week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• The ratings are still better than the same time last year

 

Indonesia Sets CPO Reference Price at $954.50/Ton for March

The trade ministry sets lower crude palm oil reference price for March at $954.50 a ton from $955.44 a ton in February, says Farid Amir, director for export of agriculture and forestry products at the ministry, in text message on Friday.

• The reference price will keep CPO export tax at $124/ton
• NOTE: Exporters must also pay additional CPO levy at 7.5% of the reference price

 

Malaysia Feb. Palm Oil Exports -10.95% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Feb. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for Feb. 2025: 1.062m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 163,460 tons, 15.4% of total
• Africa led all destinations for total exports: 288,870 tons

 

Cambodia wants more Chinese investors in agriculture, agro-industry, solar energy: official

Cambodia was keen to see more Chinese investors in the areas of agriculture, agro-industry, and solar energy, an investment promotion chief said here on Friday.

Chea Vuthy, secretary general of the Cambodian Investment Board at the Council for the Development of Cambodia, made the remarks during a meeting with a business delegation from east China’s Zhejiang Province.

He said the Southeast Asian country “has vast room for investment in cashew nut processing factories,” saying that the cashew nut sector was a potential sector for investment.

Cambodia produced a total of 850,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts in 2024, and 815,000 tonnes, or 95.8 percent of them, were exported without processing, according to the Cashew Nut Association of Cambodia.

The kingdom earned 1.15 billion U.S. dollars from the exports of raw cashew nuts last year, the CAC said.

For the solar power, Vuthy said the kingdom welcomed any Chinese companies who wished to invest in manufacturing solar light and vehicle batteries.

China currently is the top foreign investor in Cambodia.

 

EPA Seeks to Dismiss Lawsuit on Biofuels Blending Rules

The Environmental Protection Agency is asking a federal court to dismiss a lawsuit brought against it in December by Clean Fuels Alliance America, which represents biomass-based diesel and sustainable aviation fuel producers.

• The suit aims to compel EPA to set a time line for setting 2026 biofuel-blending volume targets under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that plaintiffs say were due by law in November 2024
• The Trump administration argues the suit should be thrown out because plaintiffs gave EPA notice of intent to sue before the agency missed the “alleged” deadline, according to a filing
• “Farmers, biofuel producers, refiners and other stakeholders agree that the 2026 RFS volumes should provide a substantial, step-change increase for biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels to meet America’s growing energy needs,” Paul Winters, Clean Fuels director of public affairs and federal communications, said in an email

 

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 410k tons in the week ending Feb. 22 from 671k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 41% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 38.2% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.43 per short ton, a decline of $0.28 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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