Global Ag News for Feb 26.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Global avian influenza outbreaks give Brazil chicken exports an edge

Projections for Brazilian chicken exports this year will likely be revised upward as numerous outbreaks of avian influenza reduce supply in competing exporters and importing nations, a group representing domestic processors said on Tuesday.

ABPA had initially projected Brazil’s 2025 chicken exports reaching up to 5.4 million tons, up 1.9% compared to the previous year.

But based on outstanding sales in the first weeks of the year, that forecast may prove conservative, said Ricardo Santin, head of the group, in an interview.

“The 5.4 million tons were at the top of the projected range but will likely be revised,” he said, adding more monthly data is required to officially increase the forecast.

Since January 1, more than 34 countries have registered outbreaks of avian influenza, according to data from the World Organization for Animal Health cited by ABPA.

In the United States, Brazil’s main competing exporter, there are more than 60 active outbreaks. There are also 64 outbreaks in the United Kingdom, 76 in Germany, 40 in Poland and 36 outbreaks in the Netherlands, ABPA said.

Brazil never had an outbreak on a commercial farm.

In January, Brazilian chicken shipments increased by almost 10%, driven by increased demand from China, the European Union and the Philippines.

Strong demand drove a 20.9% increase in chicken export revenue.

“February should be no different, based on the weekly partial figures received, which predict shipments of over 450,000 (tons),” ABPA’s statement said.

The first half of the year tends to be seasonally weaker than the second, Santin said, adding initial export performance may boost Brazil’s overall export volumes on a monthly basis at the end of 2025.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil down 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 15 1/2 in SRW, down 15 in HRW, down 19 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans down 11 1/2; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil down 1.30.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 16 1/2 in SRW, up 17 3/4 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans down 11 1/2; Soymeal down $7.40; Soyoil down 0.48.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3.9% in SRW, up 5.8% in HRW, up 2.6% in HRS; Corn is up 4.7%; Soybeans up 3.0%; Soymeal down 4.9%; Soyoil up 14.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 31 yuan; Soymeal down 25; Soyoil down 78; Palm oil down 28; Corn down 15 — Malaysian Palm is up 46.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 46 ringgit (+1.01%) at 4611.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 94 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 25 were: SRW Wheat down 5,925 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,870, Corn down 29,461, Soybeans down 30,781, Soymeal down 17,201, Soyoil down 9,217.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 26 FEBRUARY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmer than normal conditions are likely to last through the next 2 weeks across the U.S. Plains wheat areas
• SOUTH AMERICA: The latest forecasts uphold continuous dryness in South-Central and Southeast Brazil, elevating downside risks to all crops in the region
• AFRICA: Increasingly wet conditions expected across Western Africa next week should support cocoa mid-crop development
• BLACK SEA: Significant cold develops over the Southern District in Russia but most wheat areas are protected by sufficient snow cover
• TROPICS: Abnormal tropical activity is observed across the Indian Ocean and Oceania, although without immediate impact on the continents’ land

 

THE ONGOING U.S. WARM-UP WILL DOMINATE THE OUTLOOK WELL INTO MARCH OVER MAJOR CROP AREAS

What to Watch:

• The recent U.S. cold snap was extreme, but warm temperatures are overspreading the country and will remain in place through early March
• An active storm track will develop along the northern U.S. in typical fashion for a warm regime, while the southern areas of the country will be dry
• While temperatures were low enough at times to threaten the winter wheat crop, protective snow cover was in place and the warm outlook favors the early development period

FORECAST

Discussion: The Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern will flip into its negative phase during the latter half of the 15-day forecast. This will support the potential for mild U.S. temperatures beyond 15 days as an item to monitor. On numerical model performance, the EC has recently outperformed the GFS in North America. This means that the EC is the preferred model for the 15-day outlook. Numerical model performance has been improving of late, making for a high confidence forecast.

A widespread warming trend is arriving in the U.S., and the warmer outlook will largely persist into the foreseeable future. Temperatures through 5 days will be 9-18 °F above normal across the country, with the warmest anomalies focused on the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. During the 6-15 day forecast, warmth will moderate over the major U.S. crop areas to some extent outside of the Northern Plains, but it will hang on in most areas to some extent (see figure below). Meanwhile, 15-day precipitation totals depict a split pattern with the northern U.S. being up to 25 mm (~1 in) wetter than normal, while the southern regions will be 20-40 mm (~0.8-1.6 in) drier than normal. Beyond 15 days, mild temperatures are likely to persist into the foreseeable future for most of the country. Moderate precipitation combined with a warm outlook in the weeks ahead should get U.S. winter wheat development off to a good start.

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE FOR 25 FEBRUARY 2025

What to Watch:

• Warm and dry weather in Brazil
• Very heavy precipitation expected in Argentina

FORECAST

Discussion: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is expected to rise into a positive phase event during the next 1-2 weeks, which typically results in a very mixed rainfall pattern across South America during March-May. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to retreat towards a dormant level during this time, and as such will have diminished impacts on global weather patterns. Regarding numerical model performance, the GFS has been outperforming the EC for temperature forecasts as of late in Argentina, while the opposite is true for precipitation. In Brazil, the model performance between the GFS and EC has been converging and in general has been increasing in performance for both temperatures and precipitation.

Argentina: Modest temperatures are expected across the Pampas region of Argentina during the next 5 days, before warmth between 1-3 °C above normal arrives in the 6-10 day period. This is likely to change in the 11-15 day period, when cool anomalies between 1-3 °C below normal are possible. More importantly, very heavy precipitation is expected across the Pampas region during the next 10 days, with anomalies between 35-150+ mm above normal in some areas. Currently, the largest anomalies are expected from northeast Buenos Aires through Cordoba. Beyond 10 days, the latest EC extended run depicts warm and wet weather prevailing during much of the next 4 weeks. This upcoming wet weather should favor any corn/soy crops still in development stages.

Brazil: Widespread warmth between 2-6 °C above normal is expected to prevail across Southern, Southeast, and southern parts of Center West Brazil during the next 10-15 days. Closer to normal temperatures are expected further north, though cool conditions between 1-3 °C below normal are possible in the northern one-third of the country in the 11-15 day period. As for precipitation, high totals between 30-70 mm above normal are expected through 10 days in Mato Grosso stretching northeast through Para. Elsewhere, dry conditions between 20-65 mm below normal are expected in the rest of the Center West, Southeast, and Southern Brazil. Beyond 10 days, the latest EC extended run depicts similar conditions through the next 4 weeks. Overall, widespread warm and dry weather will favor upcoming harvest activities and second corn plantings, while acting unfavorable for any remaining developing corn/soy crops as well as coffee/sugarcane.

Northern Plains: Temperatures remain very warm this week. Clipper systems moving through several times this week may bring some winds and brief showers, but most areas will stay warm and dry this week. Temperatures are likely to fall next week, but not nearly to the same degree we saw last week.

Central/Southern Plains: Warm conditions have melted the remaining snow. Several clippers will pass by to the north this week, but outside of a few spotty showers, it should be drier. A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south and a larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers.

Midwest: Temperatures rose over the weekend and will stay warm most of the week. Several clippers will move through this week, but with overall limited precipitation. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. And a larger system is forecast for the middle of next week, followed by more milder air.

Lower Mississippi River: It was largely dry over the weekend, allowing water levels to crest in many areas. Southern areas saw rain, though. Water levels should start falling later this week and weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. A drier pattern this week should help the rivers to fall into a more manageable range.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 25 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 9,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought around 150,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that sought limited shipment to two ports only
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that closed in on Feb. 19
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 65,000 to 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 120,000 tons of soymeal.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Feb. 21 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.047m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.087m bbl vs 26.218m a week ago

 

EU 2024/25 soybean imports 8.95 mln T by Feb 23, rapeseed 4.23 mln T

European Union soybean imports so far in the 2024/25 season that started in July had reached 8.95 million metric tons by February 23, compared with 8.03 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 4.23 million tons, against 3.87 million a year earlier. EU palm oil imports were at 1.82 million tons, down from 2.30 million tons.

However, the Commission said export data for Italy was not complete for the last ten weeks. It added that the data for France was not complete since the beginning of calendar year 2024.

Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland was not complete since the beginning of marketing year 2023/24, said the Commission.

 

SovEcon Trims Russian Wheat Export Forecast for 2024-25 Season

SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the 2024-25 season to 42.2m tons, from 42.8m tons, reflecting persistently slow shipments and low profitability in export operations, it said in a note.

• That’s well below last year’s exports of 52.4m tons and lags the three-year average
• Russian exporters operating at a loss and a strengthening ruble are seen limiting shipments
• Expects that major traders will not rush shipments, prioritizing margin improvements
• As a result, SovEcon anticipates that the full export quota may not be utilized
• The consultancy increased its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast to 38.9m tons, up from 38.3m tons forecast earlier this month, citing the slower export pace this season and rising carryover stocks
• “The market remains too optimistic about Russia’s wheat export potential this season,” SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said
  • “Limited domestic supply, a strong ruble, and negative exporter margins suggest that the export pace is unlikely to accelerate substantially in the near future. With historically tight global wheat supply and demand balances, this should provide support to global prices until the end of the season”

 

Indonesia’s 2025 Palm Output to Rise By 2.2 M Tons: Mielke

Palm oil production in the world’s biggest producer, Indonesia, may rise by 2.2m tons this calendar year, while declining slightly in second-biggest grower Malaysia, according to Thomas Mielke, executive director of Oil World and leading industry analyst.

• Global production may only increase to 81.23m tons in marketing year ending September 2025, from 80.13m tons the year before, Mielke said at a conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday
• Global consumption seen at 80.94m tons in same period versus 81.89m tons year ago
• Inventories currently low in Malaysia, China, and India, and this will underpin high vegetable oil prices
• Palm industry facing “tremendous side effects” from Indonesia’s moratorium on plantation expansion imposed five years ago, Mielke said
• Many problems in sector remain unresolved, including slow replanting, worker shortages, and diseases, which has resulted in yields far below potential. “This is of great concern to consumers in importing countries,” he said
• Demand shifting to rival soybean oil due to palm’s premium price, but this is temporary and will be corrected by market, he added
• Palm oil’s “unusual” price premium to soybean oil to persist for now, and to diminish in April-June
• Global biodiesel and HVO production may decline by 0.5m tons this year, after rising by 4m tons in 2024. “This is contrary to earlier expectations of an increase, as mandates in many countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, EU and probably US may be reduced or not fulfilled,” Mielke said

 

Palm Oil Prices Seen Sliding as Output Ramps Up From 2Q: Mistry

Palm oil prices, which have been at a rare premium to rival soybean oil on tight supplies, may slide as production rises significantly after the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan in March, according to veteran trader Dorab Mistry.

• Futures seen trading at 3,600-4,100 ringgit/ton from April to November, after holding firm between 4,000-4,600 ringgit/ton through March, Mistry said in a presentation at a conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday
• Output from the world’s biggest grower, Indonesia, likely higher by at least 2m tons this year
• Global vegetable oil supply to grow by 3.5m tons in 2024-25 and seen entering market in 2H
  • Palm oil output to increase 2.5m tons after 1m tons of decline a year before
  • Soybean oil production to grow by 4m tons from 2.5m tons
• Global demand for vegetable oils for use in food is expected to grow by 2m tons in 2024-25, from 3m tons a year before; demand for use in energy will also increase by the same amount
• Mistry called on Indonesia to lift a moratorium on plantation expansion that was imposed five years ago and welcomed by environmentalists
• India’s total cooking oil imports seen rising to 16.6m tons in 2024-25; China’s vegetable oil consumption expected to be flat, not a bullish factor in 2025

 

FGV Holdings says palm oil output growth to continue in 2025

One of the world’s biggest palm oil producers, FGV Holdings, expects output to rise between 1% and 3% in 2025 on the year, boosted by improvements in yields and oil extraction rate, its chief executive told Reuters on Wednesday.

The company’s efforts to replace old plantation has helped increase yields of fresh fruit bunches and the rate of oil extraction has also risen, promising higher crude palm oil output in 2025, said Fakhrunniam Othman.

“Our oil extraction rate (OER) is also improving, where we are targeting about 20.8% to 21% compared to last year’s value of 20.61%,” he said in an interview, referring to the proportion of oil extracted from fresh fruit bunches.

With oil palm plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia, FGC has a total area of 333,765 hectares (824,750 acres) planted to oil palm.

The company’s crude palm oil production jumped to more than 2.9 million metric tons in 2024, up from 2.62 million in 2023, Fakhrunniam said.

Palm oil’s current price premium over soyoil has led to lower demand from countries such as India and China, which will bring down prices in the later part of the year, he said.

Crude palm oil prices in 2025 are likely to average between 3,900 ringgit and 4,200 ringgit a ton, lower than the current price of about 4,600 ringgit, Fakhrunniam said.

Crude palm oil output in Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of the commodity, is likely to rise to 50 million metric tons in 2025 from 49 million a year ago, while Malaysia’s output is likely to rise marginally up to 19.6 million, he said.

“I think both countries for the full year will record a low single-digit improvement compared to last year,” he added.

Demand for sustainable palm oil has been prompting FGV to increase production compliant with European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which fetched a premium of $200 a ton for its first shipment dispatched last year, he said.

 

Kansas asks US EPA for one-year delay to expanded E15 sales in state, says EPA

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has received a request from Kansas to delay by one year implementation of a move that would expand sales of a higher-ethanol blend of gasoline in the state, the agency told Reuters on Tuesday.

The request comes after the EPA said last week it would uphold an April 28 implementation date for a request from eight Midwest governors to allow year-round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, a blend known as E15. It added that it would consider granting one-year delays for states that seek additional compliance time, something already sought by Ohio.

 

Mexico Lower House Approves Bill Against GMO Corn

With 409 votes in favor and 69 against, lawmakers in Mexico’s lower house approved a bill backed by Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum banning GMO corn crops, according to a post on X from the chamber.

• Measure looks to protect native corn
• The bill says any use of genetically modified corn must be legally evaluated to make sure it is free from threats to biosafety and health, according to a separate press release

 

Brazil’s Para state set to reverse tax on grain production

The governor of the northern Brazilian state of Para said on Tuesday he will propose a bill to revoke a state tax on grains production.

Governor Helder Barbalho said in a post on X his decision came after listening to farmers about the law, which was set to take effect next month.

Among other provisions, the tax would impose a 4.32 real ($0.7527) charge on a 60-kilo bag of soybeans and a 2.09 real ($0.3641) charge on a 60-kilo bag of corn.

In a statement, soy farmers’ lobby Aprosoja Para dubbed the decision an “important victory,” adding it was “essential to the competitiveness and development of the sector.”

The governor’s decision comes amid criticism from farmers and an industry lobby regarding another new state law imposing a 1.8% levy on grain exports from neighboring Maranhao.

While Maranhao state has defended the levy, saying proceeds from it will go toward investments in logistics, benefiting the entire agribusiness sector, industry group Abiove, which represents global grain merchants, filed a suit against the measure last week.

 

Brazil Waterway Operator Extends Selloff On Drought Loss

Hidrovias do Brasil SA, an operator of barges that transports soybeans and corn via the Amazon and its tributaries, extended a selloff to a sixth day after disclosing a loss driven by a severe drought.

Shares of the Brazilian company plunged as much as 13% in Sao Paulo to the lowest level since March 2023 before trimming losses, bringing this year’s decline to nearly 30%. The grain and iron ore hauler saw fourth-quarter losses more than double from a year earlier due to a decline in transported volumes, it said in a Monday statement.

Hidrovias do Brasil was one of the first companies to tap Amazon river tributaries for transportation of soybeans, opening up a new export route for Brazil’s booming harvests. It also operates in other riverways. But drier-than-normal conditions last year eroded navigation conditions, limiting its ability to move cargoes across the nation’s rivers.

Sailing conditions on the Tapajos river, in the Amazon region, are expected to improve considerably in the second half of the year as local authorities are dredging the waterway, according to Chief Executive Officer Fabio Schettino.

“We should not have problems anymore,” Schettino said during the call.

Hidrovias do Brasil will soon announce the terms of a capital increase after scrapping a previously announced plan, the company said. The proceeds will be used to fund capacity expansion.

The company’s debt has jumped to 6.6 times earnings before items such as interest and taxes, according to the statement. Its $398 million in notes due in 2031 are trading below 88 cents on the dollar.

 

Thin snow layer in Western Ukraine keeps wheat production unchanged, but cold risks remain

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 20.3 [19.3-21.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Ukrainian wheat production remains unchanged at 20.3 [19.3-21.3] million tons (mmt) but cold risks remain. Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 19.1 million tons.

The past two weeks featured cold and dry weather conditions across Ukraine. Minimal precipitation resulted in thin snow cover in Western Ukraine, but soil moisture levels are still at a 6-year low, especially in the main wheat producing Oblasts.

According to the latest weather forecast, moderate temperatures will occur in March, but dry conditions will be in store for the next two weeks, which poses risk for plants development for upcoming spring season. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather condition in the upcoming weeks and update our forecast accordingly.

 

 

 

 

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