Global Ag News for Feb 24.2025

TOP HEADLINES

India’s annual palm oil imports to fall behind soft oils for first time, industry official says

Palm oil’s share of India’s annual edible oil imports is set to drop below soft oils for the first time as its rising premium over soyoil and sunflower oil pushes refiners toward more affordable alternatives, the head of an industry body said.

Lower palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could weigh on benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices and support U.S. soyoil futures.

“Palm oil is getting pricey due to supply issues, so buyers are naturally shifting to soyoil and sunflower oil instead,” said Sanjeev Asthana, president of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), in an interview with Reuters.

The country’s palm oil imports in the 2024/25 marketing year ending in October 2025 could fall to as low as 7.5 million metric tons, the lowest in five years, said Asthana, who is also the CEO of Patanjali Foods Ltd.

Palm oil is losing market share to soft oils, which are projected to account for a slightly larger volume of imports, he said.

Palm oil accounted for 56% of India’s total edible oil imports in the last marketing year, but in the first three months of the current year its share fell to 43%, the SEA data showed.

Palm oil has been trading at a premium over rival oils for the past few months as supplies from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia were affected by floods at a time when Jakarta has also moved to increase the tropical oil’s use in biodiesel.

The current premium for palm oil is not sustainable, and once it begins trading at a discount, likely within two months, Indian buyers will increase their imports, Asthana said.

Soyoil imports in the current year could increase by 1 million to 1.5 million tons from last year’s 3.4 million tons, while sunflower oil imports may rise slightly from last year’s record level of 3.5 million tons, he said.

India meets nearly two-thirds of its vegetable oil demand through foreign sourcing. It buys palm oil from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while soyoil and sunoil come from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

The rising availability of local oils, which will help fulfill incremental demand, is expected to keep the country’s total edible oil imports steady at around 16 million tons this year, Asthana said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 3/4 in SRW, down 8 3/4 in HRW, down 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil down 0.37.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 19 3/4 in HRW, down 11 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil up 0.45.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 23 in SRW, up 24 in HRW, up 15 in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $7.50; Soyoil up 0.45.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5.4% in SRW, up 7.3% in HRW, up 4.4% in HRS; Corn is up 6.1%; Soybeans up 3.6%; Soymeal down 4.8%; Soyoil up 16.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 47 yuan; Soymeal down 21; Soyoil down 32; Palm oil down 126; Corn up 11 — Malaysian Palm is down 105.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 105 ringgit (-2.25%) at 4559.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 21 were: SRW Wheat down 15,923 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,850, Corn down 88,550, Soybeans down 24,190, Soymeal down 9,051, Soyoil down 2,380.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 21 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

A MILD, BUT ACTIVE MARCH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD GET WHEAT OFF TO A GOOD START

What to Watch:

• A split temperature outlook for North America during March features warmth from the U.S. Midwest eastward, with cold risks confined to the western U.S.
• Frequent cyclones could trek across the central U.S. next month, likely bringing multiple rounds of rain/snow in a potentially active month of weather
• The combination of warm and regionally wet conditions would be very favorable for U.S. winter wheat as it exits the dormant stage

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 499.6K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.45M of Corn: USDA

• Corn sales fell to 1,454k tons vs 1,999k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 631k tons vs 606k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 500k tons vs 210k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 13, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 101k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 547k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 156k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following table shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 13, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Japan bought 4.1k tons of the 13.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

US Cattle on Feed Placements Rose to 1.82M Head in Jan.

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more rose 1.7% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

• Analysts were expecting a rise of 2.7%
• The US feedlot herd as of Feb. 1 were down 0.7% y/y to 11.716m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots increased 1.4% to 1.869m head

 

CROP SURVEY: US 2025-26 Corn Area Seen Rising to 93.5M Acres

Analysts see USDA’s estimate for corn about 3m acres above last year’s crop, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of as many as 24 analysts.

• Analysts see the USDA’s soybean planting estimate at 84.4m acres, 2.7m acres less than the 2024-25 crop
• Wheat planting seen at 46.7m acres, 0.6m above last year’s crop
• Cotton planting seen at 10m acres, a decline of 1.2m acres
• Analysts see US production up for corn, but down for soybeans, wheat and cotton

 

Rumo Says Its Crop Shipments Could Rise by 10M Tons in 2026

A new terminal in Brazil’s largest port of Santos can help to increase crop volume handled by railway operator Rumo in 2026, Felipe Saraiva, the company’s investor relations manager, says during an earnings call.

• Rumo logistics system currently moves ~35mm tons of crop products to Santos
• Improvements in Santos could add 10mm tons of potential volume for Rumo
• Saraiva also mentioned the ramp up of the port terminal owned by Chinese crop trader Cofco in Santos, and the construction of a railroad return loop near the port
• Potential increase in volume to also come from Rumo’s investment in expanding a railway in top crop producing state of Mato Grosso
• Another jump in volume handled through that shipping route could occur in 2028 and 2029, with a new set of terminal expansions planned for that period

 

Malaysia’s Flooded Palm Problems to Persist for Another Month

Malaysian oil palm plantations that have been inundated with rain this year aren’t likely to see production recover for at least another month, according to a senior industry official.

The situation has already tightened supplies in the global market, which is headed for a back-to-back drawdown in stockpiles, lifting futures nearly 9% so far this month. The flooding has submerged farms and forecasters are expecting more rain, further squeezing supplies of the world’s most-consumed edible oil just as buyers restock for a major Muslim festival.

“The recent floods in Malaysia will impact palm oil production in 2025, particularly in the first quarter,” said Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director general of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Waterlogged farms and harvesting disruptions will likely result in lower fresh fruit bunch output and reduced oil extraction rates in the short term, he said.

January production in the Southeast Asian nation slumped the most in nine years as heavy rainfall and flash floods in major palm areas crippled operations. Sarawak and Sabah, the top growing states, were among the worst hit, according to the country’s weather agency. That spurred a more than 7% drop in stockpiles from a month earlier, missing all estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The situation will help keep prices elevated. Palm oil prices may trade in a range of 4,500 ringgit and 4,800 ringgit ($1,018 and $1,086) a ton through the first half of this year, Ahmad Parveez said ahead of a major industry conference this week in Kuala Lumpur. The tropical oil closed at 4,664 ringgit a ton on Friday.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Producers are focused on crop activities; prices are firm in BR

Producers are focused on the soy harvest, avoiding to trade large amounts. Players are uncertain about prices in the next weeks, given the adverse weather conditions in Argentina and Paraguay, which may limit the supply of these countries and favor sales in Brazil.

Purchasers, in turn, are also buying low quantities, to meet immediate needs. They expect lower prices next days, due to the record crop in Brazil.

This scenario has sustained soybean quotations. From February 13-20, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) upped 0.4%, to close at BRL 131.17 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 20. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) remained almost stable in the same period, closing at BRL 125.49 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 20. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved down only 0.2% from Feb. 13-20 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar dropped 1.1% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.707 yesterday.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Price Index rises 11% in the partial of February and surpasses BRL 83/bag

Corn prices have increased more significantly this week in most regions surveyed by Cepea, boosted by the lower supply and firm demand.

Sellers continue limiting the volume of the cereal available for trades, betting on higher increases next days. Purchasers, in turn, are facing difficulty to replenish inventories.

In São Paulo state, sellers remain focused on crop activities. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) upped 5.7% between February 13 and 20, closing at BRL 83.62 per 60-kilo bag on Feb. 20 – the highest nominal level since March 2023. In the partial of this month (up to Feb. 20), the Index rose 11.5%. In real terms, the current average is the highest since April/23 (IGP-DI).

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from February 13-20, corn values increased 3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 2.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

 

Argentina Soybeans at the national level, with better than expected recovery

After three weeks of rains that have been key for the recovery of the soybean campaign in the core zone, losses have slowed down and there is a positive change, better than expected, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange.

A month ago, very significant losses were expected and numerous areas with total losses.

The northeast of Buenos Aires is where the impact is most noticeable, with area losses in 2nd soybean of around 30% and minimum yields below 10 qq/ha.

What is clear as of February 20 is that:

• The recovery seen in crops is greater than expected. Yield losses have stabilized and damages have been reduced.
• The variability of yields observed in the soybean crop, both 1st and 2nd, will be very marked. The yield gap will be at least 15 to 20 qq/ha.
• The rains expected for next week will continue to be important in the recovery of oilseed yields.
• The rains have put a floor for soybeans in the region, possibly at 14 qq/ha for 2nd soybeans and 25 qq/ha for 1st soybeans.

Fifty percent of the core region received between 20 and 100 mm in the last week. Practically the entire core region received rainfall in the last week, although the highest accumulations were concentrated in the northern half.

Rainfall allowed a significant recovery of soil moisture. Drought areas disappeared and now there are scarce to regular reserves, with sectors where conditions are adequate to optimal. In the northeast of the GEA region, even optimal to abundant levels are recorded.

“A change of trend in soybeans is consolidating: we went from disaster to acceptable”.

In the northwest of Buenos Aires, they explain that “the recovery is better than expected. Soybean was saved”. What was this disaster about and what is the new scenario? Technicians explain that in second soybeans they expected a loss of 40 to 50% when now they estimate that it would be 20% to 30%. “There are good possibilities of reaching 22 qq/ha on average”. In the 1st crop, losses before water were estimated at 30 to 40%, when now they estimate 20%: “we can be in averages of 30 to 33 qq/ha”. From the northeast of Buenos Aires, they say: “at one point we thought that we would not be able to harvest anything”. The technicians also explain that there are areas “in which at first glance, it seems that they have not had drought. But the number of knots will be limiting in soybeans and yields will not exceed 28 qq/ha in the best case”.

 

VIET NAM EMERGES AS MAJOR AGRICULTURAL TRADE PARTNER OF ARGENTINA

The following information was released by the Government of Vietnam:

The Argentina’s leading daily La Nacion reported that over the past six years, Argentina, a leading agricultural producer globally, has exported 536 million tons of grains worth US$189 billion.

From 2019 to 2024, except for the drought-affected year of 2023, Argentina exported nearly 96 million tons of grains on average each year. More than half of these were shipped to Asia, with nearly a quarter to Southeast Asia.

The article said Southeast Asia has experienced rapid economic growth, and the food consumption patterns in the region are very diverse.

Southeast Asia has become a strategic market for the agricultural sector, accounting for 28 percent of global soybean meal trade, 10 percent of global pork consumption, and 9 percent of poultry consumption.

Viet Nam accounts for half of Argentina’s corn and soybean meal exports to the Southeast Asia region.

According to La Nacion, Southeast Asia has become an important destination for Argentinian agricultural products over the past decade. The demand for animal feed in Southeast Asia is expected to rise. The region will account for 20 percent of global corn import market share and 70 percent of soybean meal import market share.

Viet Nam will continue to be a major trade partner for Argentinian agriculture, projected to import an additional 6 million tons of corn and 1.7 million tones of soybean meal by 2034, representing 7 percent of global corn imports and 9 percent of global soybean meal imports.

 

Trump EPA Keeps Biden-Era Gasoline Change Meant to Boost Ethanol

The Trump administration is holding firm to an April fuel policy change meant to bolster sales of corn-based ethanol, despite some oil industry warnings it could raise gasoline costs and cause fuel supply disruptions.

The Environmental Protection Agency will keep to April 28 as the implementation date for ending special treatment that waives conventional E10 gasoline from fuel volatility limits in as many as eight Midwestern states, Administrator Lee Zeldin said in a statement.

The change would effectively put E10, which contains 10% ethanol, on the same regulatory footing as higher-ethanol E15 gasoline and allow both varieties to use the same raw gasoline blendstock. That raw unblended fuel would have to be less evaporative in the affected states.

The shift is meant to enable both fuel blends to be sold widely during the summer, where the existing policy often keeps E15 out of the market. The change was sought by Midwestern governors and first charted under former President Joe Biden.

At the same time, the EPA will consider granting one-year delays for states that seek additional compliance time, something already sought by Ohio.

The decision is an early indicator of the new Trump administration’s approach to biofuel policy. During Donald Trump’s first term, some debates pitting oil refiners against biofuel producers reached the president himself, prompting the EPA to weigh policy shifts on the treatment of refiners and federal quotas mandating use of the alternative fuels.

The producers of biofuel — and the corn and soybeans used to make it — are a politically important constituency in Washington. But Trump has also repeatedly vowed to unleash American energy and take advantage of the country’s abundant oil and gas resources for economic and geopolitical gain. The president has also made combating inflation and high consumer costs a signature of his second term.

“Today’s decision underscores EPA’s commitment to consumer access to E15 while ensuring a smooth transition for fuel suppliers and refiners,” Zeldin said. “We will continue working with all stakeholders to ensure available and affordable fuel supply.”

Some refiners and pipeline operators have warned of potential disruptions tied to supplying a lower-volatility blendstock to the affected states. Pipeline systems fully contained in the Midwest and refineries primarily serving the region are expected to shift to the new regional specification, effectively isolating the area’s fuel supply from the rest of the country.

The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers trade group said it disagreed with the decision.

Affected governors should “protect consumers in their states from likely increased gasoline costs and supply disruptions by requesting more time for the market to prepare,” said Geoff Moody, a senior vice president with the group.

Biofuel advocates argue the risks of higher costs have been exaggerated. Pipeline operators and refiners have had more than a year to adapt to the change, since it was ordered last February.

Iowa Renewable Fuels Association Executive Director Monte Shaw praised the move, saying it offered certainty for fuel retailers and farmers alike. E15 sales are “a key growth opportunity for corn demand,” he said, while pledging to work with Congress on a nationwide change.

Although E10 has long been been granted a federal waiver to exceed a limit on its volatility, a measure of how much it evaporates, E15 hasn’t been given the same treatment in in federal law.

Lawmakers — backed by oil companies and biofuel producers — are seeking to change that, advancing legislation that would allow year-round sales of E15 and moot the need for a regional fuel specification shift. However, it’s not clear that will clear Congress and be enacted in time.

 

India likely to raise vegetable oil import taxes to help support local farmers

• India to raise edible oil import taxes to help farmers
• Domestic oilseed prices ruling below state-set support prices
• Inter-ministerial consultations regarding duty hike over

India is likely to raise import taxes on vegetable oils for the second time in less than six months to help support thousands of oilseed farmers reeling from a crash in domestic oilseed prices, two government sources said on Friday.

The hike in import duties by the world’s largest importer of edible oils could lift local vegetable oil and oilseed prices, while potentially dampening demand and reducing overseas purchases of palm oil FCPOc3, soyoil BOc2, and sunflower oil.

“(The) Inter-ministerial consultations regarding duty hike are over,” said a government source, who did not wish to be named as he was not authorised to talk to the media. “The government is soon expected to raise the duties.”

The government would take into account the impact of the decision on food inflation, said another government source who also did not wish to be identified, citing official rules.

A government spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request from Reuters for comment.

In September 2024, India imposed a 20% basic customs duty on crude and refined vegetable oils. After the revision, crude palm oil, crude soyoil, and crude sunflower oil attracted a 27.5% import duty, compared to 5.5% previously, while refined grades of the three oils now have a 35.75% import tax.

Even after the duty hike, soybean prices are trading more than 10% below the state-set support price. Traders also expect winter-sown rapeseed prices to fall further once new-season supplies begin next month.

Domestic soybean prices are around 4,300 rupees ($49.64) per 100 kg, lower than the state-fixed support price of 4,892 rupees.

Due to lower oilseed prices, it makes sense to raise import duties on edible oils, said the first official, adding that the exact amount of the hike has not yet been decided.

Oilseed farmers are under pressure, and they need support to maintain their interest in oilseed cultivation, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

Reuters on Thursday reported that Indian refiners have cancelled orders for 100,000 metric tons of crude palm oil scheduled for delivery between March and June, partly due to the likely hike in import duties.

India meets nearly two-thirds of its vegetable oil demand through imports. It buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

 

China Vows to Increase Farmers’ Incomes, Boost Rural Financing

Major construction projects in rural China will get more investments from the central budget, the proceeds from issuance of ultra-long sovereign bonds and local governments’ special bonds, according to a government guideline on agricultural development issued on Sunday.

• The guideline, also known as the “No. 1 Central Document” in China, says the country will use monetary policy tools including differentiated reserve ratio requirement, re-lending and re-discounting to promote financing for rural revitalization
• Vows to make efforts to ensure grain safety
• To improve policies on subsidizing corn and soybean producers
• To enhance management on religious affairs in rural areas
• To make good management and use of rural resources and assets and prohibits urban residents from buying rural housing
• Encourages construction of public charging facilities

 

China’s demand for pork has no more room to grow, says researcher

There is no more room for Chinese demand for pork to grow in the future, Zhu Zengyong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences said on Monday.

Given the current price of pork, it is not recommended that companies expand breeding sow capacity this year and they should instead focus on improving the efficiency of breeding sows, he told a seminar.

 

Malaysia rules out raising palm oil’s biodiesel blend to 20%

Malaysia has no plans to raise palm oil’s biodiesel blend to 20% from the current 10%, as the required infrastructure development would need funding that both the industry and the government are unwilling to provide, the commodities minister said on Monday.

There are challenges to implement the biodiesel blend to 20% as it will require an investment in infrastructure estimated at about 643 million ringgit ($146.20 million), Plantation and Commodities Minister Johari Abdul Ghani told parliament.

Malaysia currently imposes a 10% biodiesel mandate, although a 20% biodiesel mandate is implemented in Labuan and Langkawi as well as the state of Sarawak except Bintulu, he said.

“Our engagement with industry stakeholders show that they want the government to finance this but we are not ready to fund it,” he said.

Top palm oil producer Indonesia has launched the mandatory B40 biodiesel programme, which created supply tightness in the world market and made palm oil more expensive than rival oils.

 

US cotton acreage may fall in 2025 due to sagging prices, analysts say

U.S. cotton acreage is expected to decrease in 2025 as falling prices and waning demand for the natural fiber might push farmers to scale back, analysts said.

Cotton is currently very cheap compared to alternative crops, and this might severely curtail acreage in the U.S., Rogers Varner, president of Varner Brokerage, said.

A National Cotton Council of America survey this month suggested that U.S. cotton producers may plant 9.6 million acres of cotton this year, which is 14.5% lower than in 2024.

“With prices at 60 cents (per lb), we used to make great money. Now our inputs are so high, we need around 90 cents or so to make it work,” said Steve Olson, a cotton farmer in Hale County, Texas.

ICE cotton futures have fallen 3.5% so far this year, marking the fourth consecutive year of losses, on weak global demand and fears of tariff wars under U.S. President Donald Trump.

“Cotton prices have dropped nearly 20% from a year ago, and with 11.18 million acres planted in 2024-25, it’s hard to see us holding above 11 million acres in 2025-26,” said Justin Cardwell, head of research and technology at Alternative Option.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said farmers planted 11.18 million acres of cotton in 2024, up 9.3% from 2023.

The government is scheduled to release preliminary forecasts for 2025 on February 27, ahead of its March 31 planting intentions report based on a survey of roughly 70,000 farmers.

“Our challenges are high input cost. You know the fertilizer, the fuel and of course equipment cost, with an increase in interest rates, equipment costs are one of the high input costs. Our equipment is fairly old,” said Martin Stoerner, a farmer in Floyd County, Texas.

Farmers will likely reallocate to more profitable crops, such as soybeans or corn, when they cut back on cotton, depending on regional market conditions and demand, Cardwell of Alternative Option said.

“For many, the math is simple: if cotton isn’t paying the bills, you plant what does.”

Low cotton prices could cause some planting to go over to probably corn and maybe a little bit to the wheat market, said Jack Scoville, vice president at Price Futures Group.

Cotton prices could rise 10 cents in the coming months if growers scale back production or exit farming altogether, said Keith Brown, principal at Georgia-based cotton brokerage Keith Brown and Co in Georgia.

 

Olam Sells Agri-Business Stake to Saudi in Long-Awaited Deal

Singapore’s Olam Group Ltd. reached a long-awaited deal to sell a controlling stake in its agri-business unit, which trades bulk grains and makes everything from edible oils to pasta, to Saudi Arabia’s state-owned food trading firm.

The $1.78 billion deal will almost double the stake that Saudi Agricultural & Livestock Investment Co., or Salic, has in Olam Agri Holdings to 80%, and see Olam become a more slimmed down company focused on cocoa and coffee, where it’s one of the world’s top traders. It’s also the latest example of the kingdom’s strategy of ensuring food security through acquisitions in the global supply chain.

Olam founder and Chief Executive Officer Sunny Verghese said in a statement that it marked a key milestone in the restructuring of the company, which started in 2020 with the aim of splitting the group’s assets and listing them separately. Olam Agri would be publicly listed at an appropriate time, he said in a briefing in Singapore on Monday.

“We hope it could be as early as possible,” Verghese said at the briefing, adding that it would depend on Salic’s decision and a possible capital injection from the new owner. “Saudi Arabia is a very capitalized market with substantial liquidity. Many food and agri businesses are listed there.”

 

US Weekly Beef and Pork Production Estimates: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 491m pounds for the week ending Feb. 22 from 489m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 0.4% from a week ago to 563m head
• Pork production up 0.1% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.3%
• For the year, beef production is 3.6% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 5.2% below

 

 

 

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