Global Ag News for Feb 20.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Top Fertilizer Maker Expects Record Sales Volume on Corn Demand

• Nutrien forecasts higher US corn plantings than last year
• Trump tariff plan on Canadian fertilizer is industry wild card

The world’s top fertilizer producer Nutrien Ltd. sees sales volumes of nitrogen and potash on track for a potential record this year, with increased corn seedings in the US and Brazil expected to boost demand for crop nutrients.

The bullish outlook for fertilizer comes even considering the uncertainties hanging over the industry as US President Donald Trump threatens to slap tariffs on goods from Canada.

The Canada-based company forecasts corn dominating US plantings this year with as much as 93 million acres, compared with 90.6 million a year earlier. Nutrien also predicts more corn seedings in Brazil.

A recent corn rally is making the grain more attractive to US farmers this year than soybeans. That’s good news for Nutrien as corn, unlike soybeans, is heavily reliant on fertilizer to grow.

The industry has faced extreme market volatility over the last few years as well as problems with excess inventory amid crop slumps that slowed farmer demand. Trump’s tariff talk is a wild card for the year ahead. While a trade war presents more risks, it also may bring some benefits, if supply concerns translate into higher nutrient prices.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil up 0.44.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/2; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal down $1.20; Soyoil up 0.73.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 36 1/2 in SRW, up 41 1/2 in HRW, up 34 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 23 1/4; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $6.80; Soyoil up 0.72.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 7.8% in SRW, up 10.6% in HRW, up 7.9% in HRS; Corn is up 9.4%; Soybeans up 3.9%; Soymeal down 4.3%; Soyoil up 17.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 19 yuan; Soymeal up 24; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil up 144; Corn down 15 — Malaysian Palm is down 26.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 26 ringgit (-0.56%) at 4646.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 19 were: SRW Wheat down 6,432 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,556, Corn up 1,924, Soybeans down 12,145, Soymeal down 49, Soyoil up 4,812.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 19 FEBRUARY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth will return to North America in earnest during the 6-10 day time frame, though conditions are much more mixed thereafter
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry conditions are expected across some areas of Brazil during the next 10+ days, notably in Rio Grande do Sul and in the Southeast/bordering areas of the Center West

Brazil: Wet season showers in central Brazil are very isolated and will allow for fieldwork to continue. Producers have until the end of the week to plant safrinha corn before it is considered to be late. Much progress has been made over the last two weeks and the country may be on track for getting close to normal planting pace, especially in Mato Grosso. The states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo will have some enhanced precipitation this week, however, limiting progress there.

Argentina: Drier weather is in place for the rest of the week and temperatures will be increasing, leading to more stress for those areas with limited soil moisture. A front moves back into southern states over the weekend with needed rain there for several days, which will be helpful. The front is forecast to move north for late next week and weekend.

Midwest: Temperatures will rise this weekend and above-normal readings are forecast for next week in most areas. Clippers moving through Canada may bring some occasional precipitation and a storm system in the middle of next week may bring somewhat widespread rain. Colder air may filter in either behind that system for late next week, or behind another that goes through next weekend.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 19 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 96,160 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 102,450 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• OFFERS RECEIVED IN WHEAT TENDER: The lowest offer in an international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of wheat, which closed on Wednesday, was assessed at $295.21 a metric ton CIF liner out.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 96,160 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on February 20.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Feb. 14 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.078m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.731m bbl vs 25.692m a week ago

 

High temperatures return to Argentina’s grains belt, rains expected later 

Argentina’s key agricultural region will see maximum temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius (95°F) in the coming days, followed by rainfall in the early part of next week, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday.

Argentina, the world’s leading exporter of processed soybeans, and the third largest supplier of corn, keeps a close watch over both crops, which are currently in critical stages of development and key to the South American nation’s economy.

The exchange’s weekly report indicated that these high summer temperatures would affect almost the entire agricultural area of Argentina.

The subsequent rains are expected to range between 10 and 25 millimeters (0.4 inch to 1 inch) in the south of Argentina’s grains heartland and less than 10 millimeters in other agricultural areas, according to the report.

The Grain Exchange estimates soybean production for the 2024/25 season at 49.6 million metric tons and a corn harvest of 49 million tons.

 

Brazil Soy Output Cut by 1.1M Tons, Still at Record: Agroconsult

Estimate for Brazil’s soybean production is for 171.3 million tons, Agroconsult, which hosts the crop expedition Rally da Safra, said in a statement.

• Forecast is still a record, at 15.8 million tons above previous crop
• Center North region will produce 5 million tons more than previously expected, Center South output forecast to be 6.2 million tons smaller due to persistent dryness, high temperatures
• Brazil’s largest soybean producer state Mato Grosso may reach 50 million tons for the first time with record yield, Agroconsult said
• Planted area in the country raised by 100,000 hectares to 47.6 million hectares, 1.7% larger than prior season’s
• Expedition is currently halfway through
• NOTE: Expedition covers an area corresponding to 95% of Brazil’s soybean production

 

Argentina corn production slightly up thanks to recent favorable precipitation patterns

2024/25 Argentina: 47.9 [44.6–51.2] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Continued precipitation over core producing areas of the southeastern Pampas has replenished soil moisture and fractionally increased 2024/25 Argentina corn production to 47.9 [44.6–51.2] million tons, though the yield upsides are likely to be limited with early planted corn (over 60% of the country’s total corn production) already moving past grain-fill and getting ready to be harvested ahead of schedule. In February’s WASDE report (released on 11 February), USDA placed Argentina corn production at 50 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 51 million tons. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 49 and 46 million tons, respectively.

Wet weather returned to Argentina’s eastern core early February, after a grueling period of dryness from mid-December through late January. Widespread above average precipitation fell throughout the eastern Pampas, ranging between 50-130 mm in total, over the past two weeks. The regions that have benefited the most include northern Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, Eastern Córdoba and southern Santa Fe (where collectively more than 70% of the country’s total corn is grown), which received an ample amount of rain up to 90 mm above normal. While recent favorable precipitation patterns undoubtedly provided a much-needed relief to the dry soil, the total amount might have not been enough to compensate for the adverse drought impacts that took place during December and January, as the current soil moisture levels across those key crop regions still mostly remain around 6-year lows nonetheless. Most early planted corn crops (i.e. crops planted before early December and historically proven to be more productive) have already moved past the grain-fill stages due to rapid sowing pace earlier in the season and might have missed the rainfall opportunity during their prime growth period.

Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery have surged thanks to recent moderate weather patterns, and are now mostly on par with historical median levels throughout the main Pampas area (except for Southern Buenos Aires and northern Santa Fe). After a brief period of dryness later this week, rains will likely return next week and remain in store through the end of the month, warranting attention.

 

Recent rainfall events bode well for Argentina soy yield with critical pod fill in full swing

2024/25 Argentina: 50.2 [48.1–52.5] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Continued precipitation over core producing areas of the southeastern Pampas has replenished soil moisture and fractionally increased 2024/25 Argentina soybean production to 50.2 [48.1–52.5] million tons, as most crops move through critical pod-fill stages amid timely rains after a grueling period of warmth/dryness from mid-December through late January. In February’s WASDE report (released on 11 February), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 49 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 52 million tons. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 49.6 and 47.5 million tons, respectively.

Favorable rainfall patterns finally took place across Argentina’s eastern core over the past two weeks, after months of abnormal droughts and heatwaves. Widespread above average precipitation fell throughout the eastern Pampas, ranging between 50-130 mm in total during the period. The regions that have benefited the most include northern Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, Eastern Córdoba and southern Santa Fe (where combined nearly 80% of the country’s total soybeans are grown), which received an ample amount of rain up to 90 mm above normal. While recent favorable precipitation patterns undoubtedly provided a much-needed relief to the dry soil, the total amount might have not been enough to compensate for the adverse drought impacts that took place during December and January, as the current soil moisture levels across those key crop regions still mostly remain around 6-year lows. Nevertheless, continued precipitation will help recover crop outlooks, as most soybean crops are either entering or moving through their critical pod-fill stages at the moment. Weather conditions over the coming weeks will likely determine the final yield potential.

Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery have surged thanks to recent moderate weather patterns, and are now mostly on par with historical median levels throughout the main Pampas area (except for Southern Buenos Aires and northern Santa Fe). After a brief period of dryness later this week, rains will likely return next week and remain in store through the end of the month, warranting attention.

 

Paraguay soybean production unchanged amid improving weather despite low vegetation densities

2024/25 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 9.7 [8.9-10.1] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Paraguay soybean production is maintained at 9.7 million metric tons (MMT) amid severely suppressed vegetation densities in key producing soybean regions of Paraguay, including the three top producing areas, Alto Parana, Itapúa, and Canindeyú. Our estimate is below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s estimate of 10.7 million metric tons in their most recent report (released on 11 February). According to LSEG’s Weather Research team, rains are expected to prevail in the next week over the southeastern Oriental region, which is likely to be favorable to the crops yet to enter their maturation stage.

 

Ukraine sunoil export prices driven higher by export demand

Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices rose by $25 over the seven days to Wednesday to between $1,110 and $1,120 per metric ton Carriage Paid To (CPT), analyst APK-Inform said on Wednesday, citing strong demand and limited offers.

“This situation is explained both by a similar trend in the world oilseed market and active demand for oil on the part of exporters against the background of a small number of offers of this product,” the consultancy said in a report.

Ukrainian traders’ union UGA said last week the country, which is a major sunflower oil producer and exporter, reduced sunoil exports to 340,000 tons in January from 526,000 tons in the same month a year earlier.

Analysts have said a jump in local sunflower seed prices caused by a smaller harvest has forced some sunoil refineries to suspend production and exports.

The Ukrainian UCAB agricultural business association said last month Ukraine’s sunoil exports could fall to 4.74 million tons in the 2024/25 season from 6.25 million tons in 2023/24 as the sunseed harvest fell to 11 million tons from 14 million.

 

French 2025 Wheat Plantings Up 10% on Improved Weather

• French farmers planted 6.35m hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest, according to estimates from the country’s Agriculture Ministry on Tuesday
• That’s up 7.2% from 2024 which saw very unfavorable weather conditions, and 1.3% below the five-year average.
• The saturation of soil with water in certain regions (notably Brittany, Normandy, Champagne, Centre-Val de Loire) could affect future yields or require re-seeding in spring, especially for barley and oilseeds
• Soft winter wheat area at 4.57m hectares, up 10% y/y, though “it remains low compared to levels seen over the past 30 years”
• NOTE: The majority of French wheat planting happens over the winter
• Durum-wheat area at 198k hectares, down 5.7% y/y and 16.6% below the 2020-2024 average. Planted area is lowest level in 30 years
• Barley area at 1.21m hectares, down 2.1% y/y and 3.5% below the five-year average
• Winter rapeseed area seen at 1.3m hectares, down 1.8% y/y

 

Brazil expands agricultural ties with UAE in strategic trade mission

A delegation from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA) is on a visit to the UAE to strengthen trade relations and showcase Brazil’s agribusiness potential.

Led by Vice-Minister Irajá Rezende de Lacerda, the delegation includes Luís Renato de AlcSntara Rua, Secretary of Commerce and International Relations of the Ministry; Carlos Goulart, Secretary of Agricultural Defence; and Fernando Magalhães Soares Pinto, Undersecretary for Budget, Planning and Administration.

With the UAE ranking as the sixth-largest importer of Brazilian agricultural products in 2024, this mission underscores the importance of reinforcing Brazil’s role as a reliable partner in food security.

The delegation will participate in Gulfood 2025 in Dubai, meet with Emirati authorities, and visit agro-industrial facilities.

In statements to the Emirates News Agency (WAM), Rua emphasised that the mission aims to bridge and deepen partnerships. ‘Brazilian agribusiness is built on hard work and innovation, and our goal is to reinforce our role as a strategic partner for the UAE. With exports to the UAE increasing by 45.52 percent from 2023 to 2024, we see enormous potential to expand this relationship,’ he said.

Major Brazilian exports include meat, sugar and ethanol, forest products, coffee, and tobacco. The mission also aims to explore emerging opportunities, particularly in tropical fruit exports, which are gaining traction in the UAE market.

Sustainability is another focus, with Brazil preparing to host COP30 in Belém later this year. Rua said the country is looking to build on discussions initiated at COP28 in Dubai and to share best practices that boost productivity while reducing environmental impact.

Food security remains a priority for the UAE, making Brazil an essential partner in ensuring a stable and high-quality food supply. ‘The UAE already trusts Brazil as a key supplier, with Brazilian meat exports reaching US$1.59 billion and sugar and ethanol exports totalling US$1.14 billion,’ Rua highlighted.

At Gulfood 2025, Brazil showcases its agribusiness strength, from traditional exports like beef and poultry to organic and speciality products such as açaí, mango and Brazil nuts.

Beyond trade, the delegation is also discussing sanitary and phytosanitary regulations to ease exports. ‘The UAE’s interest in Brazil is growing steadily, reflecting our credibility. They know they can count on us-that Brazil is a reliable supplier, ready to grow alongside them. More than just selling products, we want to build lasting relationships based on trust, innovation, and a commitment to secure and sustainable supply,’ Rua stated.

 

WARMTH COULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH AMERICA IN MARCH

What to Watch:

• Warmth to prevail next month across most regions, though some uncertainty exists in Brazil
• Dry weather to persist in Argentina, though the picture is more mixed in Brazil

MARCH WEATHER OUTLOOK

Crop Impacts:

• Brazil: Main crop impacts during March across Brazil will be focused on corn, soybean, sugar, coffee. Our temperature forecast calls for warmth across much of Brazil. The exception is northwest parts of the Center West branching into Northwest Brazil. As noted below, there is high uncertainty in the area of forecasted cool weather, and this area may trend warmer during the next month as an item to watch. As for precipitation, dry conditions are expected in east-central Brazil, while pockets of wet weather are possible in parts of the south (as well as Paraguay). Wet weather, where verified, could delay 1st corn/soybean harvest and 2nd corn plantings, while favoring long-term soil moisture and therefore 2nd corn production. Increased precipitation should aid coffee and sugarcane crops as well. Dry conditions look to be limited to east-central Brazil but would have opposite impacts of those just discussed.
• Argentina: There is an overwhelming consensus for continued warm and dry weather across Argentina during March, which leads to a negative outlook for crops throughout. That said, these conditions may aid harvest progress once activity ramps up.

 

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.