Global Ag News for Feb 18.2025

TOP HEADLINES

USDA probationary staff fired at three agencies, sources say

• Employees fired late on Thursday at research and farm agencies
• USDA chief Rollins says positions “no longer necessary”
• One fired worker, army vet with PTSD, says “I’ve been betrayed”

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has fired probationary staff at two U.S. Department of Agriculture research agencies and its farm loan agency, three sources familiar with the situation said on Friday.

It was not immediately clear how many staff were affected by the firings, which the sources said occurred overnight.

A USDA spokesperson would not comment specifically on whether people were fired, but said the department was “optimizing operations, eliminating inefficiencies, and strengthening its ability to serve farmers, ranchers, and the agriculture community.”

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a statement on Friday that the agency is “eliminating positions that are no longer necessary.”

The Trump administration, led by Elon Musk’s cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency, has fired thousands of federal workers this week.

The affected research staff worked at the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, which supports agricultural science and technology research, and the Economic Research Service, which produces reports and data on the farm economy.

Also fired were probationary loan officers at the Farm Service Agency, which processes farm loans and administers other farm programs.

Nick Gioia, who had been working as a visual designer at ERS since December, said he received a termination letter from the agency late on Thursday and was shocked and heartbroken.

“I’ve done a lot for my country and as a veteran who served his country, I feel like I’ve been betrayed by my country,” said Gioia, who served in the army and worked for the Department of Defense for a total of 17 years before joining the USDA.

He added that he suffers from PTSD and has a child with epilepsy, and does not know if his family still has medical insurance.

“The Agency finds, based on your performance, that you have not demonstrated that your further employment at the Agency would be in the public interest,” said the letter sent to the fired employees, according to a copy seen by Reuters.

The letter said the employees have a right to file an appeal with the Merit Systems Protection Board. Trump attempted to fire the head of the board on Monday, who has sued to challenge the decision.

Gioia said he had no prior performance issues and planned to file an appeal.

Rollins said on Friday that DOGE has been operating at the agency for weeks and that she welcomes their reforms.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 0.23.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 16 1/4 in SRW, up 19 3/4 in HRW, up 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans down 16 3/4; Soymeal down $4.90; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 0.23.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 36 1/2 in SRW, up 37 1/2 in HRW, up 22 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 17 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/2; Soymeal down $6.00; Soyoil down 0.23.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 8.1% in SRW, up 10.1% in HRW, up 5.7% in HRS; Corn is up 8.6%; Soybeans up 3.4%; Soymeal down 3.9%; Soyoil up 15.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 18 yuan; Soymeal down 8; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil up 6; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is down 38.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 38 ringgit (-0.84%) at 4504.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 14 were: SRW Wheat down 2,071 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,195, Corn up 15,814, Soybeans up 474, Soymeal down 3,934, Soyoil up 2,718.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 17 February 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The latest forecasts confirm extreme temperatures between-20- -25 °C (-4 – -13 °F) across the U.S. winter wheat areas, along with sufficient snow cover protection
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry and warm conditions will prevail across Southeast and South-Central Brazil through the next 10 days, affecting local coffee and sugarcane
• EUROPE: A warming trend and widespread snowmelt is expected across the continental Europe this week
• BLACK SEA: Cold risks will grow for winter wheat in the Volgograd, as the snow cover might be missing during the main outbreak this week

 

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE FOR 17 FEBRUARY 2025

What to Watch:

• The forecasts are trending warmer/drier for late February/early March in Southeast Brazil
• Rains are likely to return to the Argentinian Pampas next week, but the improvement for corn and soybeans might be only local

FORECAST

The Madden-Julian Oscillation will stagnate near the 8-phase event over the next 10 days. This will support a shift in rainfall activity toward Northeast Brazil, with persisting dryness in the Southeast.

ARGENTINA:

After a brief cooling, the warming trend is expected over the next 10 days, with temperatures rising to 2-3 °C above normal in most of the Pampas and higher anomalies in the north. Rains will retreat from the northern Pampas in 2 days and dry conditions will last until the end of this week. However, increasingly wet conditions with heavy rains are expected in the next week, which is likely to result in 30-40 mm rainfall surpluses for the 15-day forecast period. Rains are likely to continue in early March.

BRAZIL:

The recent updates decrease the probability of cooler conditions and rainfall expansion in the second week of the forecast. Therefore, persistently warm and dry weather is expected across Central, Southeast, and Eastern Brazil over the next 15 days, with temperatures 2-5 °C above normal and rainfall deficits down to 80 mm below normal/15 days.

A local convergence zone will be influencing the South during the next 5 days (high rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina – 40-60 mm above normal/5 days), but warmth/dryness will overspread this region afterward and may last through the next week. Otherwise, precipitation activity will remain confined mostly to the far northern regions, with above-normal rains moving to the Northeast in the next week.

According to the extended forecasts, warmth is likely to dominate in most of the country until mid-next month. The chance for more widespread rains may arrive no earlier than the second week of March.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 14 had funds: net buyers of 8,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 100,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Colombia for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• SOYMEAL SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group purchased an estimated 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from the United States, South America or China in an international tender on Friday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 96,160 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 123,979 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late on February 13.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, and up to 35,000 tons of feed barley and up to 35,000 tons of soymeal
• BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state purchasing agency the General Food Security Authority has issued an international tender to buy an estimated 595,000 metric tons of wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 102,450 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

Brazil farmers harvest 27.31% of 2024/2025 soybean crop versus 30.72% at this time last season – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 27.31% OF 2024/2025 SOYBEAN CROP VERSUS 30.72% AT THIS TIME LAST SEASON – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean harvest 23% complete, AgRural says

Brazil’s soybean harvest for the 2024/25 season reached 23% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 8 percentage points from the previous week.

At the same time last year, 32% of the total area had been reaped, AgRural added.

Delays to reap the soy affects planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, which is cultivated in the same areas as oilseed and represents about 75% of national production in a given year.

AgRural said planting of the 2025 second corn harvest reached 36% of the estimated area in the Center-South of Brazil as of last Thursday, compared to 20% a week earlier and 59% in the same period last year.

There are delays in Mato Grosso and Goias to plant second corn, and farmers are scrambling to plant it inside the ideal climate window, AgRural said.

In Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, were second corn sowing had been progressing relatively well, dryer and hotter weather limited the advance of work, according to the consultancy.

 

Crucial weekend rains brought relief to Argentina’s agricultural heartlands, report says

Rainfall recorded over the weekend in Argentina was crucial in preventing further losses in the 2024/25 soybean and corn cycle, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Monday.

The exchange cut its soybean and corn harvest estimates last week to 47.5 million and 46 million metric tons respectively due to the impact of a drought in January.

Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soyoil and meal and the third-largest exporter of corn, has seen better-than-expected rains in the first half of February, which have boosted water levels in dried-up areas in the core farming regions.

“The past and coming weeks are crucial for late soybeans and corn, and the rainfall over the weekend is crucial to sustaining yields and setting a floor for the core zone harvest,” wrote Cristian Russo, the exchange’s head of agricultural estimates.

According to the exchange, over the weekend the rainfall ranged from 10 to 90 millimeters in the Pampas plains, with the majority concentrated in the north of this area.

Russo added that the rainfall would continue in the northern parts of the country over the next 48 hours, where crops also need more water.

Much of Argentina’s soybeans and corn crops are still in key stages of development, with corn harvesting beginning in late March and soybeans in April.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Harvesting progresses and liquidity increases; prices move down again

Cepea, 14 – The soy harvest has been progressing in Brazil, boosting liquidity in the spot market and the volume of term contracts for future delivery. Still, some purchasers avoid trading large amounts, expecting lower prices in the next month, due to the possible record crop. In Argentina and in Paraguay, the progress of the harvesting has been indicating a lower production than that projected so far.

Fom February 6-13, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 1%, to close at BRL 130.68 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 13. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.5% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 125.39 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 13.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved down 0.7% from Feb. 6-13 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar remained stable against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.769 yesterday.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Sellers are focused on crop activities; prices move up

Cepea, 14 – Corn quotations continue to increase in most regions surveyed by Cepea. Sellers are focused on crop activities, limiting the volume of the cereal available for trades, while purchasers try to replenish inventories.

Producers are focused on the summer crop harvest and are also concerned about the second crop planting, which can occurr out of the desirable period, delaying the supply and reducing the productive potential. In this scenario, purchasers are facing high asking prices and low availability of freights, since the priority is to flow soybean.

In spite of that, Conab released a report this week indicating an increase of 2 million tons in the second crop production, boosted specially by the higher amount in Mato Grosso.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) increased 3.5% between February 6 and 13, closing at BRL 79.12 per 60-kilo bag on Feb. 13. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values rose 0.8% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices continue to move up in Brazil

Wheat values continue moving up in Brazil. Besides the offseason period, sellers are away from closing deals, betting on new increases. Moreover, international prices also upped. This scenario, linked to the high volumes imported in the months before, keeps liquidity low in the domestic market.

According to data from Cepea, between February 7 and 14, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) increased 0.29% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.61% in Santa Catarina and 0.22% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values upped 0.63% in São Paulo, 2.3% in Santa Catarina and 1.17% in Paraná – in Rio Grande do Sul, prices remained stable. Dollar quotations decreased 1.47% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.703 on February 14.

India Jan. Oilmeals Exports Rise to 452,325 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 452,325 tons in January from 398,731 tons in December, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 131,641 tons from 88,746 tons in December
• Soymeal exports rose to 286,287 tons from 278,413 tons in December
• Rice-bran extract exports fell to 63 tons from 70 tons in December
• Castorseed meal exports rose to 31,725 tons from 28,452 tons in December

 

Russia Sees Challenges This Agriculture Season, Minister Says

This agricultural season has been challenging for Russia due to weather risks driven by climate change, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said Tuesday at the Global Grain and Pulses Forum in Dubai.

• NOTE: Russia had a smaller wheat harvest y/y after frosts and dry weather
• Still, so far Russia sees its grain exports during the 2024-2025 season at 55m-57m tons, Lut said, similar to earlier estimates
• NOTE: In the previous season, Russia exported around 72m tons of grain, according to the ministry’s data

 

Russian wheat export prices keep rising amid declining export shipments, analysts say

Russian wheat export prices continued to rise for a fourth consecutive week amid declining shipments as an export quota entered into force, analysts said.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in March was up $2 from the previous week to $247 FOB per metric ton.

“Prices have risen primarily due to a sharp reduction in wheat supply,” he said.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at between $242 and $246 per ton, compared with $241 to $245 the previous week.

“Russian exporters need significantly higher FOB prices for acceptable margins”, Sovecon said in a weekly note.

Russia’s export quota started to take effect on February 15. Despite continued price increases, exporters’ margins remain low. In addition, bad weather at ports has had a direct impact on shipments.

Fears of weather risks to U.S. and Russian crops pushed up prices on world markets late last week, SovEcon noted

The IKAR agricultural consultancy on Friday trimmed its overall forecast for Russia’s 2025 grain crop to 129 million metric tons from 130 million tons previously, saying that approaching frosts posed a risk for winter crops.

At the start of this week, a sharp drop in night time temperatures is expected in many of Russia’s main winter wheat producing regions.

Russia’s chief meteorologist Roman Vilfand said that temperatures would be below 19 degrees Celsius in the southern central region, but that snow which fell the previous day would reduce frost risks.

Weekly grain exports were estimated last week at 0.53 million tons, including 0.46 million tons of wheat. This was down from 0.66 million tons the previous week, when it included 0.58 million tons of wheat, Sovecon said.

It estimated February wheat exports at 2.0 million tons, compared with 4.1 million tons a year earlier.

IKAR lowered its estimate of wheat exports in February to 1.6-1.8 million tons from 2.0-2.2 million tons earlier due to poor weather at Black Sea ports and the weather forecast for the coming week.

Rail freight operator Rusagrotrans also lowered its estimate of wheat exports in February to 2.2-2.3 million tons, down from 2.4-2.5 million tons.

 

Indonesia’s conducting studies to implement 50% biodiesel blend in 2026

Indonesia is studying the implementation of a biodiesel blend that contains 50% palm oil in 2026, and is also looking at a 3% blend for jet fuel next year, energy ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi told parliament members on Tuesday.

The world’s top palm oil producer this year increased the mandatory mix of palm oil in biodiesel to 40% (B40) from 35% to reduce reliance on imported diesel fuel.

The state plantation fund is expected to distribute 35.47 trillion rupiah ($2.2 billion) to subsidise the country’s mandatory biodiesel programme, she said.

Around half of the 15.62 million kilolitres biodiesel expected to be sold this year will be subsidised, she added.

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports for the Season Slightly Ahead Y/Y

Ukraine’s total grain exports for the season that started in July 1 reached 27.5m tons, around 2% higher than the same period last year, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• Grain exports in February alone so far totaled about 1.8m tons, more than 40% less than the same period last year
• The season’s exports so far include:
  • 11.5m tons of wheat, up 9% y/y
  • 2.1m tons of barley, up 36% y/y
  • 13.5m tons of corn, down around 9% y/y

 

Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr Set to Discuss Trade With Russia: GASC

Representatives from Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr are set to meet with Russian Agriculture Ministry Oksana Lut today, according to Hossam El Garrahi, vice chairman for Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities.

• They are set to discuss future trade, he said
• El Garrahi commented during a panel at the Global Grain and Pulses Forum in Dubai

 

Shipping Giants Ask Watchdog to Avoid Biofuels in Green Push

Some major shipping lines including Hapag-Lloyd AG and Louis Dreyfus Armateurs are calling on the International Maritime Organization to avoid backing crop-based biofuels as the industry pushes to decarbonize.

“Unless legally-binding safeguards are introduced, there is a risk that a large amount of fossil fuels will be replaced with unsustainable biofuels,” the companies said in a joint statement released by the European Federation for Transport and Environment, a non-governmental organization known as T&E. When deforestation and land use are taken into account, palm and soy are two to three times worse for the climate than traditional fuels, according to T&E.

The IMO — which oversees shipping within the United Nations’ framework — is working toward a net zero greenhouse gas emissions target for the industry by mid-century as part of global efforts to combat climate change. Shipping carries more than four-fifths of world trade and still relies on traditional fuels to power most of the fleet.

 

Brazil soy lobby tells growers to reject EU anti-deforestation rule in contracts

A powerful Brazilian soy grower lobby is recommending farmers reject the inclusion in soy purchase and sale contracts of the obligation to comply with the European Union anti-deforestation law, according to a statement on Friday.

Europe’s landmark legislation will ban the import of beef, soy and other goods linked to the destruction of forests after December 2020.

Global traders tried to impose such a rule in contracts with farmers based in Goias state, an Aprosoja Brasil spokesperson said, adding the group then decided to advise farmers nationwide not to comply.

The group’s stance highlights growing resistance in Brazil to measures imposed by foreign nations aimed at halting deforestation to counter the global climate crisis, which it says affront the country’s sovereignty.

Brazil’s so-called soy moratorium pact, whereby trading companies voluntarily committed not to buy soy grown in deforested areas in the Amazon after 2008, has also been under threat.

Soy processor lobby Abiove said seeking soy farmers compliant with the new anti-deforestation regulation is part of the preparation to continue supplying clients in the EU.

However, Abiove warned that “uncertainties regarding how the EU will apply the new rules remain very high and they need to be resolved otherwise they will have an impact on current trade.”

The farmer group said the “only scenario” in which a farmer should choose to comply with the EU anti-deforestation law would be if the market offered “a premium” on the price of soy produced in the area not deforested after 2020.

Last December, application of the new EU legislation was postponed by a year after industry lobbies requested more time to adapt.

The EU is the main destination for Brazil’s soymeal, with the bloc purchasing almost half of the country’s exports. China is Brazil’s main soybean buyer while Spain is a large EU importer of the raw beans.

Clearing land for agriculture is legal under Brazil’s forestry code. Brazilian law states that farmers must preserve between 20% and 80% of legal reserves, depending on the biome where they are planting.

For Aprosoja Brasil, Brazilian environmental legislation applied to rural properties is among the most restrictive in the world.

 

US Weekly Beef and Pork Production Estimates: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 489m pounds for the week ending Feb. 15 from 511m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 3.9% from a week ago to 561m head
• Pork production unchanged from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.1%
• For the year, beef production is 4.1% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 5.6% below

 

 

 

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