Global Ag News for Feb 14.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US Biofuel Suppliers Jump as Trump Targets Brazilian Ethanol

US biofuel suppliers jumped as President Donald Trump targeted Brazilian tariffs on US ethanol exports.

The president on Thursday signed a measure directing the US Trade Representative and Commerce secretary to propose new levies on a country-by-country basis in an effort to rebalance trade relations. A White House statement cited Brazil’s 18% tariffs on US ethanol exports as an example of “unfair” trade practice.

Trump’s effort was seen as potentially an opening bid for negotiation with other countries to pare their tariffs and other trade barriers against US goods. By singling out Brazil’s treatment of US ethanol, the White House could be presenting the country with a possible target to address.

“We thank President Trump for taking this action and hope this reciprocal tariff will help encourage a return to free and fair ethanol trade relationship with Brazil,” trade group Renewable Fuels Association said in a statement.

Green Plains Inc. surged as much as 13%, the most intraday in more than three months, before ending the day with a 5% gain. Crop trader Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. jumped as much as 4.3%, the most since March 2024, and closed with a 1.1% advance.

It’s unclear how much US companies would benefit from Trump’s move. Ethanol trade between the world’s two largest producers typically have been thin. Last year, the US — the No. 1 supplier — imported roughly $200 million in ethanol from Brazil, while it exported only $52 million of its biofuel to the South American nation, the White House said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 9 1/2 in SRW, up 9 1/4 in HRW, up 9 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal up $2.70; Soyoil up 0.37.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is up 9; Soybeans down 10; Soymeal down $5.70; Soyoil up 0.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 29 1/4 in SRW, up 29 3/4 in HRW, up 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 16 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $6.10; Soyoil up 0.53.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 6.6% in SRW, up 8.6% in HRW, up 5.0% in HRS; Corn is up 8.3%; Soybeans up 4.1%; Soymeal down 4.0%; Soyoil up 17.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 29 yuan; Soymeal up 32; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil down 32; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 38.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 38 ringgit (+0.83%) at 4592.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 13 were: SRW Wheat up 2,817 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,045, Corn down 895, Soybeans up 21, Soymeal up 4,668, Soyoil up 5,335.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers in central Brazil remain scattered through the rest of this week, but by next week, they could become much more isolated. That should allow for producers to continue to make progress on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. That is needed because they are still well behind the normal pace and have less than two weeks in their window to complete safrinha corn planting before it is considered late. Heavy rain is possible across southern Brazil as a front could stall across the region this weekend into early next week.

Argentina: Another front will be moving through Friday into Saturday and another early next week. The heaviest precipitation with this system favors the northeast once again while the lightest precipitation is expected across southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Some damage has already occurred for the corn and soybean crops, and there is no guarantee that the coming rain will be able to turn around conditions, but it should help to at least stabilize the crop.

Northern Plains: Cold air continues to be stuck in the region for the next week, though we should see some moderation next weekend. The cold should cause additional stress and needed rations for livestock. Some light snow will move through at times, but heavy snow is not in the forecast. Drought continues to be a big issue as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Below-average temperatures moved into the region and that cold will be a concern for uncovered winter wheat, which has had a couple of bouts of very cold air over the winter. Another system is possible over the weekend that could linger into early next week, but precipitation could be lighter. Wintry precipitation with this system could develop as far south as northern Texas. The snow would be helpful to cover up winter wheat, but livestock will need extra rations with the cold.

Midwest: An active pattern is expected for eastern areas. Two more large systems are forecast through the region this weekend and next week, keeping the region busy but also aiding some of the drought areas with increased precipitation. Cold air sits across the northwest and will pulse through the rest of the region at times behind these systems. The northwest may also remain on the drier side as these systems work off to the south and east.

Lower Mississippi: Barge traffic may slow down with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and minor flooding along the Mississippi’s tributaries. Another round of heavy rain and stronger thunderstorms is expected Saturday and will continue to lead to higher water levels and potential for flooding for the rest of the month. By next week, another system could move through and provide wintry precipitation to Arkansas or northern Mississippi.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 13 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group purchased an estimated 132,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Thursday
• WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased around 360,000 to 480,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state purchasing agency the General Food Security Authority has issued an international tender to buy an estimated 595,000 metric tons of wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 102,450 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice which closed on Thursday, was assessed at $434.55 a metric ton CIF liner out.

 PENDING TENDERS

• SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 123,979 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late on February 13.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, and up to 35,000 tons of feed barley and up to 35,000 tons of soymeal
• BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 209.8K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 2M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Feb. 6.

• Corn sales rose to 1,999k tons vs 1,527k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 606k tons vs 486k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 210k tons vs 388k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 6, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 222k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 593k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 138k tons

 

NOPA January US soybean crush seen slowing to 204.536 million bushels

The U.S. soy crush likely declined in January from a record high the previous month as a stretch of harsh winter weather and a glut of soymeal led some facilities to slow their processing pace, according to analysts polled ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Tuesday.

NOPA members, who handle more than 95% of all soybeans processed in the U.S., were estimated to have crushed 204.536 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, it would be down 1.0% from the record 206.604 million bushels crushed in December but up 10.1% from the January 2024 crush of 185.780 million bushels. It would also be the second largest monthly crush on record.

Soybean crushing rates have surged in recent years as several new processing plants have come online while others have expanded capacity to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers.

NOPA’s monthly crush totals have also climbed as new members have joined the group. However, a stretch of harsh cold curbed plant efficiency last month while record snow and icy roads in several southern states hindered some processors, analysts said. Abundant supplies of soymeal also anchored the crush pace, they said.

Crush estimates for January ranged from 200.000 million to 208.700 million bushels, with a median of 205.000 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Tuesday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of January 31 were projected to rise to 1.289 billion pounds, based on estimates from six analysts. If the estimate is realized, it would be up 4.2% from stocks totaling 1.236 billion lbs at the end of December but down 14.5% from the 1.507 billion lbs held by NOPA members a year ago. Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.135 billion to 1.478 billion lbs, with a median of 1.275 billion lbs.

 

Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Crop Seen at 166.01M Tons: Conab

Output est. cut from 166.33m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 168.2m tons
• Yield seen lower at 3,499 kg/ha vs 3,509 kg/ha last month
• Area planted raised to 47.451m ha vs 47.401m ha last month
• Corn production est. raised to 122m tons vs 119.6m tons
• Cotton production est. raised to 3.76m tons vs 3.7m tons

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates Feb. 13: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• No changes to 2024-25 corn, soybean planting or production
• Corn planting reached completion in the week

 

Dryness Seen Over Next Week for Argentina Soy After Estimate Cut

Argentina’s main region of farmland for growing soybeans and corn will get barely any rain from Feb. 13-19, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly weather report.

• Southern-central Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, northwestern Buenos Aires and northeastern La Pampa will get “meager or non-existent” rains, weather maps show. Abundant rains will nevertheless fall on farms further north
• NOTE: The negative forecast comes after the Rosario Board of Trade slashed its soy production estimate on Wednesday to 47.5m metric tons from a range of 53m-53.5m last month
  • While rains so far in February have revived plant health, the next 10 days will be crucial to avoiding bigger losses: Rosario

 

Argentina Soy Condition Slips Further After Heat Wave: Bourse

Soy acreage in a poor or very poor condition jumped to 36% from 32% last week after high temperatures were registered in the country, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• Corn acreage in a poor or very poor condition rose to 33% from 26% last week after rains weren’t sufficient to compensate for heat
• Harvesting of early corn crop has started

 

Brazil 2024/2025 Soybean Crop Seen At 170.89 Million Tns Versus 171.4 Million Tns In Previous Forecast – StoneX

• BRAZIL 2024/2025 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 170.89 MILLION TNS VERSUS 171.4 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX
• BRAZIL 2024/2025 SECOND CORN CROP SEEN AT 101.7 MILLION TNS VERSUS 101.6 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX
• BRAZIL 2024/2025 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 108.5 MILLION TNS VERSUS 107 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX

 

Western Australia Produced Its Third-Largest Grain Crop in 2024

Australia’s top grain-exporting state produced the third-largest tonnage on record in the 2024 season, fueled by the warmest winter on file, according to a report from the Grains Industry of Western Australia.

• Western Australia produced a total of 22.4 million tons of grain, compared with Dec. estimate of 19.9m
• Last three record production years — 2021, 2022 and 2024 — were marked by unprecedented warm winters
• Total grain crop area increased 7-10% between 2023 and 2024 as farmers switched from sheep
• Grain yield estimates prior to harvest were up to 20% lower than actual deliveries for some regions
• Wheat production was 12.5m tons, +1.6m from December estimate
  • 4.6m hectares of wheat was planted, which is within high end of historic range
  • Rain across central and northern grain growing regions over harvest resulted in large amounts of wheat dropping out of premium quality grades. Other regions compensated for the quality drop
• Barley production was 5.9m tons, +800k tons from Dec. estimate
  • 1.8m hectares of barley planted
• Canola production was 2.87m tons, +40k tons from December estimate
  • 1.7m hectares of canola planted

 

French Soft Wheat, Durum Wheat Conditions Lead 2024: AgriMer

About 73% of France’s soft-wheat crop was rated in good or very good condition as of Feb. 10, versus 68% this time last year, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Winter barley rated good or very good was at 68%, versus 71% last year
• Spring barley was 23% planted, versus 20% at this time last year

 

Russia’s 2025 grain harvest could reach 140-145 mln tonnes vs. 128 mln tonnes in 2024 – OZK

Russia’s grain harvest this year could reach 140-145 million tonnes under an optimistic scenario, OZK Group Deputy General Director and Executive Director of the Union of Grain Exporters Kseniya Bolomatova said at the Where is the Margin 2025 conference in Moscow on Thursday.

“We expect that in a conservative scenario the new season’s harvest will exceed last year’s, while in an optimistic scenario it will significantly surpass it and could reach 140-145 million tonnes,” she said.

Despite grain production falling to 128 million tonnes in 2024 from 147 million tonnes in 2023, it remains relatively high, Bolomatova said. “If we consider the 2024 total of 128 million tonnes and an export forecast of 55 million tonnes, we see that this would mark the third-largest amount of grain exported in history,” she said.

No further decline in yield is expected, as most winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition, and the Agriculture Ministry forecasts an increase in sown areas by approximately 500,000 hectares, she said. All these factors will contribute to the future harvest.

The main reason for the decline in grain production in 2024 was agro-climatic factors. In addition, “there has been a certain fall in cultivated areas towards more profitable crops, particularly legumes. Russia is currently focusing on expanding legume exports,” she said.

According to Bolomatova’s presentation, Russia will export 55 million tonnes of grains and legumes in the 2024-2025 agricultural season (July 2024 – June 2025). This includes 44 million tonnes of wheat, 4 million tonnes of barley and 3 million tonnes of corn. Between July 2024 and January 2025, Egypt was the largest buyer of Russian wheat at 6.1 million tonnes, followed by Bangladesh (2.2 million tonnes) and Turkey (2 million tonnes).

 

US senators reintroduce bill to allow year-round, nationwide E15 sales

U.S. senators reintroduced a bipartisan bill on Thursday that would allow nationwide sales of gasoline with a higher blend of ethanol year-round, a plan that has the support of a leading oil trade group.

Senator Deb Fischer, a Republican from Nebraska, introduced the bill with senators including Tammy Duckworth, a Democrat from Illinois, and said it would do away with patchwork regulations that would have the blend containing 15% ethanol, known as E15, only available in certain areas of the U.S.

Year-round sales of E15 have been long sought by the biofuel industry and corn farmers, who would benefit from the increased market.

Fischer and Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota first introduced the bill in 2023. The government currently restricts sales of E15 gasoline in summer months due to environmental concerns over smog, which the biofuel industry says are unfounded.

The legislation, if passed, would likely nullify a request from Midwestern governors that would allow expanded sales of E15 in their states, starting later this year. That request, approved in February 2024 by the Biden administration, is less appealing to industry players than the nationwide legislation, as some groups fear it could prompt localized fuel price spikes and supply issues.

The American Petroleum Institute, an oil trade group that has at times been at odds with the biofuel industry, said it supported Fischer’s legislation.

“Year-round, nationwide E15 sales will prevent a confusing patchwork of state regulations and give consumers reliable access to the fuels they use every day,” said Will Hupman, API’s vice president of downstream policy.

The biofuel industry was pleased.

“This bill would bring long-overdue certainty to the marketplace, save consumers money, drive growth across the heartland, and reinforce American energy dominance,” said Emily Skor, CEO of U.S. biofuel trade association Growth Energy.

 

Indonesia Says Fuel Retailers Have Cleared B35 Stockpile

Indonesian fuel retailers, including state-owned Pertamina, have cleared their B35 palm oil-based biodiesel stockpiles as they start distributing B40 biofuels, according to an official.

• Biofuel consumption seen reaching 1.3m kl each month due to the B40 program, Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry director general for new and renewable energy Eniya Listiani Dewi tells reporters in Jakarta
  • Companies have complied with regulations on B40 distribution and selling prices, she says
• Govt sees full implementation of B40 in March
• Indonesia used about 1.22 million kiloliters of biodiesel as of Feb. 14, according to ministry data

 

Indonesia expects to reach full implementation of B40 biodiesel in March

• Indonesia increased biodiesel mix to 40% from 35%
• Distributors have until end-Feb transition period
• Palm oil levy hike still in process

Indonesia expects its B40 biodiesel programme, aimed at reducing its reliance on imported diesel fuel, will reach full implementation next month after delays at the start of the year, energy ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi said on Friday.

She said distribution of the palm oil-based biodiesel this year has reached around 1.2 million kilolitres as of Friday.

Indonesia had planned to launch the mandatory B40 mix, containing 40% of palm oil fuel, from January 1 but faced some delays due to regulatory issues and so fuel distributors were given until the end of February as atransition period.

The blending previously contained 35% palm oil.

Eniya said there will be no extension to the transition period. “I think that everybody is making efforts to meet it,” she told reporters.

The implementation of Indonesia’s higher mandatory biodiesel blend is closely watched by palm oil market participants as they gauge how the demand from the energy sector may affect Indonesia’s palm oil exports.

Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, has allocated 15.6 million KL of biodiesel for distribution in 2025, up from around 13 million KL last year.

The higher volume this year may require a higher subsidy which Indonesia provides for palm oil diesel production. To finance the expected higher subsidy the government plans to hike the export levy on crude palm oil to 10% from currently 7.5%.

The official decree to implement the new levy is still in process, Eddy Abdurrachman, chief executive of state plantation fund who collects and manage the levy, told reporters.

This year, the fund targets 25 trillion rupiah of palm oil levy collection, unchanged from last year, he said.

 

Malaysia will crack down on fraud in used cooking oil exports, official says

• Malaysia to review UCO and SPO standards, says deputy minister
• Palm industry urged to view EU’s deforestation law positively
• Low palm demand from India is short term pain, official says

Malaysia will crack down on fraud in the used cooking oil industry, its deputy commodities minister told Reuters, as western governments investigate whether shipments of the biofuels feedstock from Asia actually contain virgin oil.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is reviewing its standards and policies governing used cooking oil (UCO) and palm industry waste known as sludge palm oil (SPO) to better distinguish them in order to prevent discrepancies in exports, said Deputy Plantation and Commodities Minister Chan Foong Hin.

“The government is also strengthening enforcement mechanisms to uphold industry credibility and Malaysia’s reputation as a responsible exporter,” he said in an interview on Thursday, adding that complaints from buyers could endanger the country’s status as a credible UCO exporter.

He said ensuring that the entire supply chain is traceable would combat fraudulent practices.

“Basically the centre of this issue is the traceability. How do you make the whole supply chain traceable?”, Chan said.

The European biodiesel industry last year complained of a surge in imports from China it believes involve supplies declared as made with recycled oil and fat but actually produced with cheaper and less sustainable virgin oil.

Neighbouring Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, last month moved to curb exports of UCO and palm oil residue, saying that shipments in recent years had exceeded production capacity, indicating virgin crude palm oil (CPO) had been mixed in.

In August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said it launched investigations into the supply chains of at least two renewable fuel producers, without naming the companies, amid industry concerns that some may be using fraudulent biodiesel feedstocks to secure lucrative government subsidies.

 

US Farmland Values Drop, Snapping 4 Years of Gains: Chicago Fed

Farmland values decreased 1% in 2024, ending a four-year run of “substantial annual gains,” according to the Agricultural Newsletter from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

• Values eased for the first time in five years in Illinois, and for the first time in six years in Indiana
  • NOTE: the Seventh Federal Reserve District includes north and central Illinois, most of Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and south-central Wisconsin
• Decline comes amid deteriorating credit conditions, with higher interest rates and a smaller pool of funds for farm operating loans

 

China to develop gene-editing tools, new crop varieties in biotech initiative

China issued guidelines on Friday to promote biotech cultivation, focusing on gene-editing tools and developing new wheat, corn, and soybean varieties, as part of efforts to ensure food security and boost agriculture technology.

The 2024-2028 plan aims to achieve “independent and controllable” seed sources for key crops, with a focus to cultivate high-yield, multi-resistant wheat, corn and high-oil, high-yield soybean and rapeseed varieties.

The move comes as China intensifies efforts to boost domestic yields of key crops like soybeans to reduce reliance on imports from countries such as the United States amid a looming trade war.

The document pledged to research and develop precision gene-editing tools with independent intellectual property and enhance key cultivation technologies, it said in the statement.

Additionally, efforts will be made to breed high-performance livestock, including pigs with strong reproductive capacity and high feed conversion rate, and disease-resistant broiler chickens.

 

Japan Will Tap Emergency Rice Supplies as Prices Surge 82%

Japan will sell 210,000 tons of rice from its emergency stockpiles as households are paying record prices for the grain.

The average retail price for 5 kilograms of rice surged 82% to 3,688 yen ($24) in the week of Jan. 27th compared with a year ago, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

The Japanese government heavily regulates the country’s rice market and imposes significant tariffs on imports. Problems in the distribution system have led to increased prices despite an improved harvest last year, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said at a press conference on Friday.

The 210,000 tons is about 3% of the country’s forecasted annual demand, according to Bloomberg’s calculations. The government will offer the first tender for 150,000 tons, equivalent to about a month’s sales by distributors, in early March and delivery should start in the middle of the month. The amount sold will be increased if necessary, the ministry said.

The price of rice has also been affected by a spike in demand last year, according to Katsuhito Fuyuki, a professor of agricultural market studies at Tohoku University. There was panic buying after the government warned in August of a potentially devastating earthquake in the Nankai Trough off the coast of southern Japan.

The stockpiling system was introduced in 1995 in response to a poor harvest in 1993. The government stockpiles about 1 million tons of rice.

“The closed nature of the market is problematic,” said Tohoku University’s Fuyuki. “It’s possible this will spur calls for a reduction in tariffs.”

The expensive rice in Japan comes even as global prices sink. Wholesale costs for Thai white rice, an Asian benchmark, fell to the lowest since 2022 this week.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 623k tons in the week ending Feb. 8 from 617k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 14% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 14.2% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.87 per short ton, an increase of $2.99 from the previous week

 

 

 

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