Global Ag News for Feb 12.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina prosecutors find irregularities in maintenance auction for key grains transport river

An Argentine prosecutors’ office said on Tuesday that it found irregularities in a planned auction to provide maintenance to the Paraguay-Parana river, a key route for grains transport.

The tender, which had been announced in November, was set to go live on Wednesday.

Prosecutors found evidence of “serious and evident irregularities in the wording of the tender documents,” they said in a report detailing their findings.

The auction would have assigned contracts for dredging and buoying Argentina’s stretch of the Paraguay-Parana waterway, a key transport route to the sea from inland areas of Paraguay, Bolivia and southern Brazil.

Argentina uses the 3,400 km-long (2,100 mile-long) waterway to move nearly 80% its foreign trade, including its massive farm exports such as processed soybeans, corn and wheat.

Some foreign dredging firms had already decried the auction guidelines, arguing they favored the waterway’s current operator, Belgian firm Jan de Nul. Opposition lawmakers requested an investigation into the process.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/4 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil down 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1/2 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 9 1/4; Soymeal down $5.50; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 22 3/4 in SRW, up 18 in HRW, up 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal down $5.20; Soyoil down 0.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5.6% in SRW, up 6.8% in HRW, up 4.7% in HRS; Corn is up 5.8%; Soybeans up 4.1%; Soymeal down 3.8%; Soyoil up 15.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 41 yuan; Soymeal down 30; Soyoil down 16; Palm oil up 90; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is up 28.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 28 ringgit (+0.61%) at 4621.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 11 were: SRW Wheat down 5,506 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,175, Corn down 27, Soybeans up 26, Soymeal down 1,631, Soyoil down 3,225.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 11 February 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A winter storm will blanket the U.S. from the Central Plains through the Midwest tomorrow, which will protect winter wheat during the upcoming cold snap
• SOUTH AMERICA: Mild temperatures will prevail through the next 10 days along the Argentina Pampas, but heat risks will return in the 11-15 day forecast to the detriment of corn/soybeans
• AFRICA: Cool temperatures and much needed rains are in store for the South Africa maize crop into late February in a favorable outlook on the heels of a recent dry spell
• AUSTRALIA: Hot and dry weather through the next 10 days in Queensland will be unfavorable for sugar development, though conditions could improve thereafter

 

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL REGIONS OF BRAZIL INTO LATE FEBRUARY

What to Watch:

• A divided weather pattern across Argentina through the next couple weeks will offer regional rainfall relief to corn/soybeans, though some key areas will miss out
• Increasingly hot/dry conditions will overtake most of Brazil into late February in a very unfavorable outlook for coffee and cotton
• Paraguay will experience hot and dry weather through the 15-day forecast, elevating downside risks to corn/soybeans

 

DISCUSSION: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop through a Phase 1 event in the last week of the month. This will support the potential for mild South America temperatures, and high rainfall from Argentina into South Brazil with dry conditions to the north by that time. On numerical model performance, the GFS has recently outperformed the EC in South America. Therefore, the GFS is the preferred forecast model. Numerical model performance has been declining of late, making for a low confidence 15-day outlook.

ARGENTINA/PARAGUAY: Oscillating temperatures and a divided rainfall pattern are in store for Argentina Paraguay into late February. Temperatures through 5 days will be near normal along the Argentina Pampas, and 2-5 °C warmer than normal from northern Argentina through Paraguay. Cool temperatures will push northward through most of Argentina during the 6-10 day forecast, while Paraguay will remain warm. By the 11-15 day period, widespread heat risks are likely to overtake both countries. 15-day rainfall totals will be up to 25-75 mm (~1-3 in) drier than normal from Buenos Aires westward and in Paraguay, while areas in between will be 25-125 mm (~1-5 in) wetter than normal. In the final week of the month, rains could expand north/southward over Argentina/Paraguay as an item to monitor. The uptick in regional rainfall in the outlook is a positive trend for Argentina corn/soybeans that have often suffered from drought risks this season, while Paraguay crops will suffer from heat/dryness.

BRAZIL: Increasingly hot and dry weather will expand across Brazil over the next couple weeks. Temperatures through 5 days will be 2-5 °C above normal over the South, Southeast, and Northeast regions, while Central-West Brazil will average out near normal. Heat risks will then expand across Central-West Brazil during the 6-15 day outlook, while the Northeast region will moderate toward near normal levels as the main changes. 15-day rainfall totals will be 25-100 mm (~1-4 in) drier than normal along a zone from Mato Grosso through Parana, while areas to the north and south from there will receive near normal totals (see figure below). Toward the end of February, rains are expected to increase over the South region, while most other areas will remain dry. Persistent dryness ahead will negatively impact coffee/cotton and any remaining 1st crop corn/soybean development, while it will also facilitate the Central-West Brazil crop progress toward 2nd corn plantings.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 11 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: South Korean flour mill CJ CheilJedang purchased about 30,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin milling wheat on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders’ Committee (FLC) has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa only
• WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 115,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in private deals on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley and 35,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Output Seen at 168.2M Tons

Brazil soybean production est. seen 1.9m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est. made in January, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 165.6m tons to 171m tons
• Brazil’s corn crop seen 0.5m tons higher at 120.1m tons

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Feb. 7 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.09m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.542m bbl vs 26.412m a week ago

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 10.1 Million Metric Tns In Feb. Versus 9.77 Million Tns Seen In The Previous Week- Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 10.1 MILLION METRIC TNS IN FEB. VERSUS 9.77 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.93 MILLION TNS IN FEB. VERSUS 1.52 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.3 MILLION TNS IN FEB. VERSUS 1.03 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 577,937 TNS IN FEB. VERSUS 478,200 TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC

 

AgResource raises Brazil’s soybean output forecast; Patria cuts estimate

Agribusiness consultancies diverged on Tuesday about the size of the country’s 2024/25 soybean crop, with AgResource hiking its forecast after a crop tour while Patria AgroNegocios trimmed its projection for the second consecutive month.

AgResource Brasil pegged production at a record 172.28 million metric tons, slightly increasing its estimate from a prior 172.07 million tons, while Patria reduced its forecast to 165.87 million tons from 167.94 million previously.

AgResource said that the bumper crop would come on the back of higher yields and a larger planted area, estimating it to reach 47.47 million hectares (117.3 million acres) – up from 46.10 million hectares in the previous season.

The firm noted in a statement that it concluded its crop tour in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Parana in early February and identified a “promising scenario” for soybean production.

Patria, on the other hand, argued that there had been a reduction in soybean yields in key areas such as Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

“Rio Grande do Sul had the largest percentage drop so far, as a consequence of the lack of rainfall,” Patria head Matheus Pereira said, citing Brazil’s southernmost state.

AgResource mentioned some drought-related production losses in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul states, but said that Goias and top-grain producing state Mato Grosso may reach record yields and help offset them.

Patria also trimmed its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn production to 125.83 million metric tons from 129.83 million tons.

 

EU’s Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 36% Y/y During Season to Feb. 9

EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 13m tons as of Feb. 9, compared with 20.4m tons for the same period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 2.01m tons, Morocco with 1.46m tons and the UK with 973k tons
• Barley exports were 2.86m tons, down 19% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 12.4m tons, up 6% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: Export data for Italy are not complete for the last nine weeks; export data for France are not complete since the beginning of calendar year 2024; export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are not complete since the beginning of marketing year 2023/24

 

Malaysia’s palm oil stock drop 7.55 pct month-on-month in January

Malaysia’s palm oil stock dropped by 7.55 percent to 1.58 million tons in January from December last year, official data showed recently.

According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), crude palm oil (CPO) production for the month fell 16.80 percent month-on-month to 1.24 million tons.

Meanwhile, Malaysia’s palm oil export declined by 12.94 percent month-on-month to 1.17 million tons.

Malaysia’s palm oil imports, on the other hand, surged by 133.34 percent month-on-month to 88,474 tons.

Looking ahead, MIDF Research opined that biological tree rest and a slower-than-expected recovery in output will persist, with local production projected to grow marginally by only 1 percent year-on-year to 19.5 million tons in 2025.

According to the research house, the continuation of the current La Nina phenomenon and the Northeast Monsoon could further hinder crop productivity.

Moving into February, the MIDF anticipates that the current CPO prices will remain stable, driven by restocking activities in preparation for pre-Ramadan demand, amidst slower palm oil output and lower closing stock.

 

India Jan. Vegetable Oil Imports Fall to 1.05m Tons: SEA

India’s vegetable oil imports fell to 1.05m tons in January from 1.23m tons in December, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Palm oil imports fell to 275,241 tons from 500,175 tons in December
• Soybean oil imports rose to 444,026 tons from 420,651 tons in December
• Sunflower oil imports rose to 288,284 tons from 264,836 tons in December

 

Upcoming cold breaks increase winter-kill risks to Ukrainian wheat production

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 20.3 [19.3-21.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Ukrainian wheat production remains unchanged at 20.3 [19.3-21.3] million tons (mmt) but upcoming weather poses potential winter-kill risks. Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 19.1 million tons.

The past two weeks featured warm and dry weather conditions across Ukraine. The lack of precipitation has kept soil moisture levels at a 6-year low, especially in the main wheat producing Oblasts, which poses risk for plants development for upcoming spring season. Warm anomalies meant that a thin layer of snow fell only in the eastern Oblasts, leaving winter crops vulnerable to cold spells across the country.

According to the latest weather forecast, cold and relatively dry conditions will be in store for the next two weeks, which raises concern for crop damage. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather condition in the upcoming weeks and update our forecast accordingly.

 

EXTREME COLD IS SET TO HIT THE U.S. AGAIN, BUT SNOWFALL SHOULD PROTECT WINTER WHEAT

• A cold air outbreak that will rival the January event will overspread the U.S. during the next 1-2 weeks, with regional moderation late in the month
• An active storm track will bring ample snowfall across most of the Plains and Midwest states this week in advance of the coldest conditions
• Despite the likelihood of winterkill temperatures being approached over some winter wheat areas, the crop should be protected by snow cover

 

 

 

 

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