Global Ag News for Feb 11.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China’s Corn and Soybean Demand Improves After Holiday: CASDE

China’s feed and processing demand for corn has improved after the Lunar New Year holiday, according to a monthly report from the country’s agriculture ministry.

• Corn users are actively making purchases as new crops hit the market, the China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report shows
• Crushing margins for soybeans have improved due to rising soymeal and soyoil prices, boosting trade and processing
• Globally, US trade policy and weather in South America are the key factors affecting corn and soybean prices going forward
• Estimates for production, imports and consumption of corn, soybeans, cotton, edible oils and sugar for 2024-2025 remained unchanged
• NOTE: Beijing has boosted purchases of domestic corn for its reserves, and limited imports, to bolster local prices and protect farmers

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.20; Soyoil down 0.08.

For the week so far wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil down 0.30.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 23 1/4 in SRW, up 19 1/2 in HRW, up 11 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 11 3/4; Soybeans up 9 1/2; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil down 0.34.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5.7% in SRW, up 7.1% in HRW, up 5.2% in HRS; Corn is up 7.3%; Soybeans up 5.3%; Soymeal down 1.9%; Soyoil up 14.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 22 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil down 44; Palm oil up 130; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 89.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 89 ringgit (+1.98%) at 4593.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 10 were: SRW Wheat down 7,264 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,458, Corn up 10,990, Soybeans up 3,600, Soymeal down 3,545, Soyoil down 7,779.

 

Brazil & Argentina Weather

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in south/central Pampas
• Heavy rains in far South/North Brazil

Discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop into a Phase 6-8 event near the end of the 15-day forecast. The Antarctic Oscillation is likely to develop into a negative phase and will support dry weather across Southern Brazil. On EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has outperformed the GFS over the past month.

Argentina/Paraguay: Warm temperatures (1 °C above normal) are expected across Central/North Argentina during the 5-day forecast. In the 6-10-day forecast, cool weather is expected across Central/North Argentina and then warmth will arrive in the 11-15-day outlook except the northeast Pampas. Dry weather (10-40 mm below normal) is expected across Central and wet (10-80 above normal) in North Argentina during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather may be a concern for corn/soybean development across the south/central Pampas, while wet weather benefits North Argentina and the north Pampas belts.

Brazil: Near normal to warm temperatures (1 °C above normal) will prevail across Brazil during the 15-day outlook. Moderate to heavy rains (50-115 mm above normal) are expected across North/far South Brazil during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather may help 1st corn harvesting/2nd corn planting across Center West/Southeast Brazil.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 10 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 365,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for shipment to Mexico in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley and 35,000 tons of soymeal.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders’ Committee (FLC) has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.334m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.042m of Soybeans

In week ending Feb. 6, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 536k tons vs 253k the previous wk, 408k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 1,042k tons vs 1,140k the previous wk, 1,343k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,334k tons vs 1,253k the previous wk, 892k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Feb. 6

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Feb. 6 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 555k tons of the 1.04m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soybean Harvest 15% Done as of Feb. 6: AgRural

Compares with 9% a week earlier and 23% in the same period last year, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Rains were a good sign for harvesting in the southern region of key producer state Rio Grande do Sul, but some northwestern areas in the state under watch due to low precipitation and high temperatures
• Winter corn seeding in the Center-South of Brazil was 20% completed, compared to 9% in the previous week and 38% a year ago
• Summer corn harvest reaches 18% in the Center-South, from 14% a week earlier and 25% in the same period last year

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices are firm in Brazil

Wheat values are firm in Brazil, especially in Rio Grande do Sul state. Sellers are away from closing deals, since they are focused on the good pace of exports in this early 2025. This scenario has been limiting the supply in the spot market.

Purchasers, in turn, have been trying to press down values. They are focused on imports, since the volume is high. In January/25, the amount of imports was the highest for the month since 2008 and the highest since April 2020.

Brazil exported 551.68 thousand tons of wheat in January, according to data from Secex. The average price was at USD 226.83 per ton, equivalent to BRL 1,364.37/ton at the Brazilian port. Imports totaled 716.9 thousand tons in the first month of 2025, and the average price was at USD 230.10/ton, equivalent to BRL 1,384.03/ton.

Based on data from Cepea, the price average in Rio Grande do Sul state was at BRL 1,270.02/ton (wholesale market) in January/25. Although the price is below the average quotation of imports, the limited supply of high-quality wheat leads wheat processing companies to import good volumes to meet their needs.

According to data from Cepea, between January 31 and February 7, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) increased 2% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.12% in Santa Catarina, but remained stable in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values upped 0.5% in São Paulo, 0.46% in Santa Catarina and 0.81% in Rio Grande do Sul, but downed 0.14% in Paraná. Dollar quotations decreased 0.89% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.788 on February 7.

BYPRODUCTS – Wheat bran prices rose in the first week of February, due to the firm demand. Comparing the average last week (Feb. 3-7) to the average in the previous week (Jan. 27-31), values of wheat bran in bags increased 0.54%, and prices of the product in bulk, 1.04%.

 

Brazil January Corn and Soybean Exports by Country: MDIC

Brazil’s Trade Ministry updates its website with exports by country of destination for January.

• Jan. soybean shipments to China fell by 59% vs the same period last year
• Corn to Iran up by 128% y/y

 

Russia could export 2.4-2.5 mln tonnes of wheat in Feb to remain at record level since start of season – Rusagrotrans

Russia could export 2.4-2.5 million tonnes of wheat in February, the Rusagrotrans analytical center forecasts.

Rusagrotrans told Interfax that the forecast was raised from 2.2-2.3 million tonnes based on information about an increase in the number of ships approaching Russian ports. However, the new estimate is still several times lower than the figure of 4.4 million tonnes for February last year.

Rusagrotrans said that wheat exports fell to 2.47 million tonnes from 4.08 million tonnes in January 2024 when accounting for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries. The center also said that exports have remained at the record level of 32.2 million tonnes since the beginning of the current season from July 1, 2024, despite the overall drop in wheat exports in January against 31.8 million tonnes the previous season.

 

Russia Distributes Wheat Export Quota Among 219 Companies

The Russian Agriculture Ministry distributed the bulk of the wheat export quota for 2025 among 219 companies, according to the order published on the ministry’s website.

• Quota’s total size is 10.6m tons and it is in force between Feb. 15 and June 30
  • The ministry’s order has distributed quotas for a total of 8.6 million tons, or 81% of the full quota, according to calculations by the Russian Union of Grain Exporters
  • Of the total, Russia’s major trader Grain Gates gets a quota of 2.39m tons, Aston gets around 1m tons and OZK Trading 494k tons, according to the order
• The quotas applies only to wheat deliveries outside the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union
• In 2024, the quota was divided among 261 companies, in 2023 – among 203

 

Kazakhstan says grain transit issues with Russia resolved

Kazakhstan has resolved most of its grain transit and transhipment issues with Russia, allowing grain exports to Europe and North Africa through Russia’s Baltic ports to flow unhindered, the country’s agriculture minister said on Tuesday.

Ex-Soviet neighbours Russia and Kazakhstan, both members of the Eurasian Economic Union, have been in a grain trade dispute since last year with both countries banning each other’s grain from their domestic markets.

Kazakhstan, which only has access to the inland Caspian Sea and relies on Russian ports for exports, had a record grain harvest of 26.7 million metric tons in 2024 and plans to export 6.5 million tons with 1.5 million tons going to Europe and North Africa.

Russia allowed transit of Kazakh grain through its ports last November, but on condition the grain was loaded directly from railcars into vessels without going into temporary storage, creating logistical problems for Kazakh exporters.

“Issues with grain, legumes, and oilseed crops have been resolved. The rail cars are no longer standing idle at the transshipment points as they used to. We have resolved this promptly, and exports are being shipped,” said Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov.

 

France raises 2025 winter soft wheat area estimate

France’s farm ministry on Tuesday increased its estimate of the area sown with winter soft wheat for the 2025 harvest to 4.57 million hectares from 4.51 million in its initial projection in December.

The revised estimate was up 10% compared with the area harvested in 2024, when repeated rain led to the smallest crop since the 1980s, and 0.4% above the average area of the past five years, the ministry said in a report.

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.