Global Ag News for Dec 5.24

TOP HEADLINES

Corteva’s CEO Wants to Replicate US Soybean Success in Brazil

• Corteva aims to expand its weedkiller technology in Brazil
• CEO says company could win 20%-30% of Brazilian soy acres

After conquering the US market with its weedkiller technology for soybeans, Corteva Inc. has its sights on the nation that produces more of the oilseed than anywhere else.

The agribusiness company is targeting Brazil for its next stage of growth, Chief Executive Officer Chuck Magro said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York office.

Corteva, the agricultural chemical and seed company spun off from DowDuPont five years ago, wants to repeat in Brazil what it did in the US with its seed and herbicide technology used for soybeans. The system launched in 2019 with tiny US market share. Now, it’s expected to make up 65% of American soybean acres this year and next, according to the company.

“We don’t see any reason why we couldn’t have 20% or 30%” of Brazil’s soybean acres by the end of the decade, Magro said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York office.

The soy system, known as Enlist E3 in the US and Conkesta E3 in Brazil, first captured more than 50% of key parts in the US soy belt in 2022. It currently has negligible market share in Brazil.

The company will also run up against challenges in Brazil, where farmer finances have come under pressure. Bankruptcy filings in the nation’s agriculture sector have climbed from a year ago, and soy producers have been hit hard by a retreat in prices for the commodity.

Corteva’s Enlist E3 competes with Bayer AG’s glyphosate Roundup product for the billions of dollars spent annually by farmers to fight weeds.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 4 1/4; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil up 0.31.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 5 1/2 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 0.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.3% in SRW, down 17.8% in HRW, down 21.4% in HRS; Corn is down 10.6%; Soybeans down 23.6%; Soymeal down 25.4%; Soyoil down 13.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 17 yuan; Soymeal down 54; Soyoil down 70; Palm oil down 122; Corn down 28 — Malaysian Palm is up 103.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 103 ringgit (+2.05%) at 5135.

There were changes in registrations (20 SRW Wheat, -2 Oats, -22 Soybeans, 150 Soymeal). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 114 Corn; 378 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 1,041 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 4 were: SRW Wheat up 487 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,820, Corn up 441, Soybeans up 5,651, Soymeal up 7,696, Soyoil up 4,504.

 

Brazil: Scattered showers continue in central Brazil though they will again go more isolated this weekend. Another front will move through southern areas with heavier rainfall over the weekend that should boost showers in central Brazil again next week. Overall, conditions are still largely favorable for developing corn and soybeans across most of the country.

Argentina: A front moves through Thursday through Saturday with scattered showers. Most areas have good growing conditions, but there are some areas in the south that are too dry. If the late-week front disappoints, it could be more concerning as the pattern will tend to be drier afterward with more limited rainfall from passing systems.

Australia: Scattered showers in the east have been heavy over the last week. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more showers for the east as well. The rain is unfavorable for winter wheat and canola harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum development. Soil moisture is improving in many areas, though western areas are much drier with only spotty showers.

Northern Plains: Temperatures are falling again with a clipper bringing a strong cold front through. Temperatures will increase rapidly on Friday though and despite a system moving through on Sunday with a burst of colder air, it should be closer to normal and temperatures will rise again a couple of days later. The showers that move through will not be heavy enough to significantly improve drought conditions in the region.

Central/Southern Plains: A burst of showers will go through eastern Texas on Wednesday, but dry conditions continue. Temperatures will waffle around as clippers go by to the north and a larger system may go through Sunday and Monday that may or may not have widespread precipitation with it and another burst of colder air.

Midwest: A larger clipper is moving across Ontario with scattered showers and strong winds that are bringing through another burst of colder air for the end of the week. Temperatures will rise this weekend and though a system will go through Sunday through Tuesday with scattered showers, the drop in temperatures will not be as severe as we have seen lately and temperatures will rise again later next week. The rain and potential snow from the system could be heavy over some of the drought areas.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels on the Mississippi River are above the low mark, but are still falling. Several clippers are moving through the region, but potential for heavy rain and snow is not in the forecast. There could be a significant system that moves through on Sunday through Tuesday with better chances for heavier precipitation in parts of the region, which could be a temporary lift to water levels.

Europe: Several fronts and systems will continue to move through the continent this week and next, allowing for quite a lot of precipitation for France, Germany, and the UK. Some of these areas are too wet as winter wheat continues to go dormant. Southern areas will enjoy the continued rainfall, though Spain may miss out on a lot of the precipitation.

Black Sea: Precipitation picked up in the east recently, helping to build some soil moisture as wheat continues to go dormant in mostly poor condition there. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to get a good start when the crop comes out of dormancy in the spring. Precipitation may pick up this weekend into next week and would be helpful if it does. This appears to favor eastern Ukraine over western Russia.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 4 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYOIL SALE: Exporters sold 30,000 metric tons of U.S. soyoil to South Korea for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: The Thailand animal feed importer group TFMA is believed to have purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a tender seeking up to 120,000 tons
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 111,405 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• FEED CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
• NO PURCHASE IN FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• NO SALE IN DURUM EXPORT TENDER: Turkish state grain board TMO is believed to have made no sales in an international tender to sell and export 100,000 metric tons of durum wheat because prices offered were too low.

 PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is Dec. 10. A previously issued tender from Bangladesh also seeking 50,000 tons of rice closed on Dec. 2.
• NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase a total of 70,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically modified organisms.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Nov. 28.

• Corn est. range 800k – 1,550k tons, with avg of 1,165k
• Soybean est. range 1,500k – 2,400k tons, with avg of 1,960k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.6% to 23.003M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.102 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.073m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.104m

 

Brazil 2025 Feedstock Production Seen Growing About 2% From 2024, Says Industry Group Sindiracoes

BRAZIL 2025 FEEDSTOCK PRODUCTION SEEN GROWING ABOUT 2% FROM 2024, SAYS INDUSTRY GROUP SINDIRACOES

  

China’s Sinograin Boosts Corn Stockpiling as Local Prices Slide

Sinograin and its subsidiaries will increase purchases of locally produced corn for China’s reserves, according to a statement from the state-owned company, as domestic grain prices tumble.

• The stockpiler will buy corn produced from the new crop in main growing areas including the northeastern region, the company said in the statement posted on its WeChat account on Thursday
• Beijing has previously stockpiled corn and restricted imports to support the domestic market, but prices of the grain have extended declines due to ample supplies and sluggish demand
• Corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange recently plunged to their lowest level in more than four years, as farmers rushed to sell some low-quality grain after weather damaged the crop

 

Chinese buyers slash Canadian canola imports on fears of anti-dumping duty

• Canadian farmers face US tariff threat amid reduced China demand
• Some Chinese crushers switch to soybeans due to policy risks
• Lower imports could further squeeze canola futures

Chinese importers are scaling back purchases of Canadian canola with shipments from December likely to plunge as most buyers are reluctant to sign new deals for fear that Beijing could impose retaliatory anti-dumping duties.

The canola trade between the two countries is worth about $2 billion a year, but lower imports by China, the world’s biggest canola importer, could further squeeze ICE canola futures, which have dropped more than 10% in the past month.

China has sufficient canola supply for the coming months, but Canadian oilseed farmers face a double whammy as its reduced buys coincide with import tariff threats by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, including canola, traders and analysts said.

“China has yet to impose any duties but it already has a desired impact as buying of Canadian canola has come to a standstill,” said a trader with an international company that sells oilseeds to China.

“As of now, supply of canola in China is sufficient, with large imports in the past months.”

Oilseed buyers in China have been shipping Canadian canola at a record pace since September to take delivery of cargoes contracted before Beijing unveiled an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian imports of the oilseed, in retaliation to Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

Buyers in China have booked to ship just about 250,000 metric tons of Canadian canola, also called rapeseed, for December shipment, two Singapore-based oilseed traders said, after taking around 500,000 tons in November and 863,000 tons in October.

“Buyers have been busy ensuring they ship the cargoes booked before Beijing’s announcement and before actual duties come into force,” the second trader said.

Canola is crushed to produce cooking oil and other products, including renewable fuels, and meal for animal feed.

China also has plentiful supplies of soybeans to bridge any shortfall in availability of canola, however, traders said.

“Some domestic rapeseed crushing plants have been forced to change to crush soybeans,” said Gan Quankun, director of agriculture products with trading company Zhangchiyoudao Asset Management in the commercial hub of Shanghai.

“Mainly because you (importers) are worried about policy risks, so you don’t dare to import rapeseed.”

While Chinese crushers are switching, retail demand for canola oil is likely to persist as many consumers prefer it to alternatives, despite its higher price.

China has enough stocks of canola to last until February, traders said, with buyers likely to switch to other origins, including Australia, in 2025. China imported 5.074 million metric tons of canola between January and October this year, up from 4.27 million a year ago, customs data shows. That includes 4.84 million tons from Canada, 184,555 tons from Russia and 46,366 tons from Mongolia.

 

Brazil Nitrogen Stabilizes, Phosphate Firms

Urea prices in Brazil narrowed to $330-$340 a metric ton (mt) cost-and-freight in early December, within last week’s broad $325-$345 range. The latest granular ammonium sulfate offers were reported at $150-$155/mt this week, also narrowing from last week’s $145-$160. Though nitrogen prices were stable, the monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market in Brazil firmed to $635/mt for the latest business, reflecting the top of last week’s range. Potash prices in Brazil also edged up to $285-$295/mt from last week’s $280-$295, with sellers offering at $300/mt for January loading due to a positive barter ratio as potash buyers remain active securing their forward needs.

 

Ammonia Firms, Phosphate Slips as Demand Ebbs

Tampa ammonia moved up $10 a metric ton (mt) for December and terminal prices in the Corn Belt were quoted at a firm $595-$610 a short ton (st), up from a recent low of $585, in the final push for fall application. New Orleans (NOLA) urea barges narrowed to $311-$314/st for December business, within last week’s range, while international prices saw a slight drop in the Mediterranean and a rebound in Egypt. NOLA diammonium phosphate (DAP) barges dropped to $555-$560/st from last week’s $568-$570 as fall demand slowed, with prices also declining $10/mt in Morocco. Potash was flat at NOLA and inland, though prices were up in Southeast Asia on stronger palm oil prices.

 

 

 

 

 

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