Written Commentary
TODAY—EXPORT SALES— ETHANOL STATS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 1 cent, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil up 90 points.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 6 yuan in soybeans, up 20 in Corn, up 18 in Soymeal, down 40 in Soyoil, and down 72 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 124 ringgit at 3,536 (basis March) looking at a supply crunch.
There is no need for any significant forecast changes in South America. Conditions in Argentina will still be stressful for crops through at least Monday. There will be some erratic showers and thunderstorms, especially in the west; however, any meaningful moisture in central and eastern areas will be localized. Rain may then increase some Tuesday due to a frontal boundary which would be beneficial.
Net drying will occur in far southern and some of northeastern Brazil through next Tuesday with favorable rain elsewhere in the region. The frontal boundary in Argentina will then likely move into far southern Brazil in the middle part of next week and help enhance the rain.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 12,000 Corn; net bought 5,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 325,000 Corn; net long 244,000 Soybeans; net long 100,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 108,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,500 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,200; Corn up 9,500; Soybeans down 12,000 contracts; Soymeal down 14,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 4,200.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 65 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 175; Soyoil 1,313 lots; Soymeal 225; Rice 313; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,041.
Tender Activity—Bangladesh seeks 50,000t optional-origin wheat
USDA hogs/pigs report to show smaller U.S. swine herd -survey – Reuters News
The U.S. hog herd likely decreased by 1% in the September-November quarter from a year earlier, a Reuters survey of analysts showed on Friday ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
Aprosoja, an association representing Brazilian grain growers, has cut its forecast for the country’s 2020/2021 soybean crop, citing an expectation of falling yields due to dryness in key producing states. In a new forecast disclosed on Tuesday, Aprosoja said it now expects farmers to harvest 127 million tonnes of the oilseeds, down from 129 million tonnes in previous forecast.
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 120,000 TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 88,989 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.423 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 4.457 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
Wage talks between Argentine port workers and soymeal manufacturers were stalled on Tuesday, with a labor strike going into its 13th day, bogging down agricultural exports. Oilseed workers and grains inspectors are demanding pay increases big enough to compensate them for high inflation and the risk of working during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Euronext wheat edged higher on Tuesday, in step with Chicago futures, as uncertainty about supply from Russia and further gains in soybeans and corn underpinned the market. March milling wheat was up 0.50 euros, or 0.2%, at 208.50 euros ($253.83) a tonne. The contract earlier reached a one-week high of 209.75 euros but held below chart resistance at 210 euros.
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