Global Ag News for Dec 18
TODAY—CATTLE ON FEED—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $3.50, and Soyoil up 10 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up down roughly 1 cent; HRW down 7; HRS down 1; Corn is up 10 cents; Soybeans up 51 cents; Soymeal up $20.00, and; Soyoil up 155 points. Crushing margins are up $0.09 at $1.00 (March); Oil share unchanged at 33%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 29 yuan in soybeans, up 4 in Corn, up 19 in Soymeal, up 98 in Soyoil, and up 52 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 65 ringgit at 3,443 (basis March) on La Nina supply concerns and labor shortage.
In Brazil, conditions are still expected to be favorable for crop development in most of the nation. Bttom line remains good for much of the crops.
In Argentina, significant rain will still impact a large portion of the region Friday. This event will mostly miss the far northwestern part of Argentina’s production region. The rain will cause some temporary reduction in dryness concerns; though, dryness in week 2 of the outlook will then lead to some increase in crop stress, especially in the pockets that miss out from much rain Friday.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 22,000 Corn; net bought 14,000 Soybeans; bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 7,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 29,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 314,000 Corn; net long 228,000 Soybeans; net long 81,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 118,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,500 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,200; Corn up 1,600; Soybeans up 9,100 contracts; Soymeal up 900 lots, and; Soyoil up 250.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 65 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 175; Soyoil 1,421 lots; Soymeal 250; Rice 313; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,061.
All Wheat sales are running 10% ahead of a year ago, shipments down 1% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase
By class, HRW up 5%, shipments up 2% with a 5% increase forecasted. SRW down 28%, shipments down 31% (down 18% seen). HRS up 9%, shipments up 6% (up 1%).
Corn is up 142%, shipments up 59% with a 49% increase seen
Soybeans up 89%, shipments up 72% (31% increase forecasted). Soymeal up 4%, shipments up 5% (unchanged on the year). Soyoil up 4%, shipments down 31% (down 3%)
The United States generated fewer renewable fuel blending credits in November than in October, the Environmental Protection Agency said.
Argentine soy planting has been slowed by dryness, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly crop report; reaching 67.8% of the 17.2 million hectares expected to be sown with the oilseed in the 2020/21 season. This year’s planting tempo lags last year’s by 2.5 percentage points, the exchange said in a statement.
Grain traders said they are experiencing delays in obtaining export documents from Russia’s customs service, leading to the late departure of several ships. Russia is attempting to stabilise food prices with a grain export quota and a wheat export tax of 25 euros ($30.6) per tonne within that quota from mid-February to the end of June. Extra customs checks could be aimed at ensuring that grain exports do not accelerate in the run up to Feb. 15, when the wheat export tax is due to be introduced, the traders said.
The final estimate for the grain harvest in Russia could be raised to 134 million tonnes, President Vladimir Putin said during his annual press conference.
Ukraine’s state statistic service said the volume of wheat harvested in 2020 totalled 25.28 million tonnes. The economy ministry this week said the harvest was at 25.1 million tonnes in bunker weight. The clean weight figure is usually published in January by the statistics service. Ukraine harvested 28.33 million tonnes of the commodity clean weight in 2019.
The European Commission on Thursday raised its estimate of 2020/21 usable maize production in the European Union’s 27 countries to 62.5 million tonnes from 60.2 million seen in late November.
The Commission lowered its forecast for 2020/21 EU maize imports to 19 million tonnes from 21 million projected last month.
For soft wheat, the bloc’s main cereal crop, estimated usable production in 2020/21 was increased slightly to 116.1 million tonnes from 115.8 million, while forecast exports were unchanged at 24 million tonnes
Paris wheat futures rose on Thursday while physical premiums in western Europe held steady, with traders seeing scope for extra export demand as Russian shipments were expected to slow. A further rally in the euro to a new 2-1/2 year high against the dollar kept gains in Paris smaller than in Chicago; March milling wheat settled up 1.50 euros, or 0.7%, at 207.25 euros ($254.11) a tonne.
Japan’s use of corn in animal feed rises in October – Reuters News. Japan’s usage of corn in animal feed rose to 49.1% in October, compared with 48.4% in the year-ago period
NEW DELHI: Government figures show that Food Corporation of India procurement has far exceeded the buffer stock limit and by January 1, 2021, India will have foodgrain reserves 2.7 times more that what is required, reflecting sustained procurement but also a massive problem of plenty. Figures show procurement continued even after FCI stocks met the demands of the country’s food security and other welfare schemes.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.