Global Ag News For Aug 29.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Canada, India appoint new envoys to each other’s countries in sign of improving ties

Canada and India announced new high commissioners to each other’s countries on Thursday, in the latest sign of improving ties frayed by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegation that India was linked to the killing of a Sikh separatist leader on Canadian soil.

India’s previous high commissioner left Canada in October. Ottawa said he was among six diplomats who were expelled after they were linked to the murder of separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, while India said it had withdrawn the envoy.

India also said that same day that it had ordered the expulsion of six high-ranking Canadian diplomats, including the then-acting high commissioner.

Trudeau’s successor, Mark Carney, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to reinstate senior diplomats when they held their first bilateral meeting in Canada in June.

Canada’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday that veteran diplomat Christopher Cooter would take up the post, which had been vacant since the previous incumbent left last year.

“The appointment of a new High Commissioner reflects Canada’s step-by-step approach to deepening diplomatic engagement and advancing bilateral cooperation with India,” Foreign Minister Anita Anand said in a statement.

India’s foreign ministry said its new high commissioner, Dinesh K. Patnaik, was “expected to take up the assignment shortly.”

Nijjar, who was designated a terrorist by India in 2020, was shot dead outside a Sikh temple in June 2023.

Trudeau in September of that year said Canada was pursuing “credible allegations” linking Indian government agents to his murder, but India dismissed the claims and accused Canada of providing a safe haven for Sikh separatists.

Canada has the largest population of Sikhs outside India’s Punjab.

India is Canada’s top source of temporary foreign workers and international students, as well as an important market for pulses such as lentils and yellow peas.

Canadian Prime Minister Carney has stressed the importance of diversifying trade away from the United States.

The appointment of a new high commissioner came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump’s doubling of tariffs on imports from India to as much as 50% took effect, delivering a serious blow to ties.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 4 3/4; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil down 0.50.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1/4 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 12 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 15 1/4; Soymeal down $4.90; Soyoil down 3.39.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 in SRW, down 30 in HRW, down 24 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans up 54; Soymeal up $10.60; Soyoil down 2.81.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.4% in SRW, down 13.2% in HRW, down 7.7% in HRS; Corn is down 15.4%; Soybeans up 3.3%; Soymeal down 8.2%; Soyoil up 29.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil down 32; Palm oil down 128; Corn up 9 — Malaysian Palm is down 72.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 72 ringgit (-1.62%) at 4377.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 475 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 28 were: SRW Wheat down 10,649 contracts, HRW Wheat down 15, Corn down 8,106, Soybeans down 8,085, Soymeal down 7,461, Soyoil up 1,328.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 29 August 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Flood warnings are in effect for corn-producing areas of South Dakota and Minnesota due to overflowing rivers, with isolated storms likely to continue
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heavy rain of 80-100 mm/7 days is expected in Argentina Pampas and Rio Grande do Sul (S Brazil) with local flooding possible.
• SOUTH ASIA: Abundant rain in Northwest India over the next 10 days will help boost water storage for wheat areas before the season
• AFRICA: Early September rains in Western Africa are currently expected to bypass coastal cocoa regions with adverse impact on late developing main crop
• TROPICS: Another tropical system is likely to affect North-Central Vietnam over the weekend, as Tropical Depression Twenty has formed over the South China Sea

 

WET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EUROPE AND THE BLACK SEA REGION

What to Watch:

• Heavy precipitation across both regions
• Shifting temperature pattern ahead

 

Northern Plains: After the recent cooler air, temperatures have rebounded closer to normal. A weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest. Another cold front will sweep through early next week, providing more scattered showers and another shot of cooler air.

Central/Southern Plains: A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool through next week. Overall, the wet and cool conditions are unfavorable for finishing crops.

Midwest: Cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it gets a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

Delta: A low-pressure center moves along a front on Thursday and Friday. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible across southern Missouri and Arkansas. Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region, and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well. Below-average temperatures are likely through the first week of September.

Canadian Prairies: A strong upper-air ridge has led to relatively dry and warm conditions across the region this week that will continue into the weekend. The dry and warm conditions are favorable for maturing crops and harvest. By early next week, a cold front will sweep through from the north and slightly cooler air will arrive for eastern areas, allowing temperatures to drop closer to average. Temperatures will likely not get cold enough for frost to be widespread.

Brazil: Recent rainfall in the south has been helpful for heading to filling wheat. After a brief stretch of cooler temperatures, they’re expected to trend above average late this week and this weekend. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week, but showers will be spotty and mainly favor Rio Grande Do Sul.

Argentina: While some advanced wheat could have received damage from recent frosts, temperatures will start to trend warmer late this week. A system will move through during the weekend, which should bring more widespread rainfall. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture well ahead of the spring planting season.

Europe: An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent that will last into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September. Temperatures will fluctuate between near to below average in the west through next week while above-average temperatures remain likely in the east.

Black Sea: While Ukraine is getting some shots of rainfall, southwest Russia continues to see relatively dry and hot conditions. Early next week, a few spotty showers will try to make it into southwest Russia, but rainfall will be hit or miss, unfavorable for filling corn and sunflowers. More rainfall is needed ahead of winter wheat planting that should start up in September.

 

The player sheet for 8/28 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in an international tender, European traders said. The purchase was expected to be sourced from South America, although the tender sought optional origin supplies from either South America, the United States or China. One consignment was bought at an estimated $348.68 a ton cost and freight (c&f) including a surcharge for additional port unloading. Trading house Olam was believed to be the seller.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 1.18M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 2.07M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Aug. 21.

• Corn sales fell to 2,072k tons vs 2,833k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 1,183k tons vs 1,137k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 580k tons vs 482k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 21, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 381k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 563k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Vietnam with 157k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 21, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 26.7k tons of the 42.4k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Canada 2025 Wheat Crop Est. 35.5M Tons, Canola 19.9M: StatsCan

Wheat production seen 1.1% lower than last year’s crop, according to estimates released Thursday by Statistics Canada on its website.

• In a Bloomberg survey, analysts were expecting 35.6m tons of wheat production
• Durum wheat production seen falling 4.7% y/y to 6.1m tons; survey avg 5.9m tons
• Canola production seen rising 3.6% y/y to 19.9m tons; survey avg 20.1m tons
• Canadian farmers projected to produce less total wheat compared with 2024.
• Farmers projected to produce more canola, compared to previous year.
• Output of durum wheat, barley and soybeans is expected to fall relative to 2024.

 

USDA July soybean crush seen at 207.2 million bushels, analysts say

The U.S. soybean crush likely rose in July to 6.218 million short tons, or 207.2 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Tuesday.

If the average of estimates gathered from nine analysts is realized, the crush would be up 5.1% from the 197.1 million bushels processed in June and up 7.2% from the July 2024 crush of 193.3 million bushels, according to USDA data. It would also be the biggest July crush on record and the fifth largest for any month on record.

In response to surging demand for vegetable oils from biofuel producers, U.S. soy processors have increased capacity by expanding or adding facilities, resulting in historically high output.

Strengthening margins in July encouraged more active crushing ahead of scheduled seasonal maintenance downtime before the autumn harvest, analysts said.

Crush estimates for July ranged from 204.8 million to 212.0 million bushels, with a median of 207.1 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Tuesday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of July 31 were estimated at 1.903 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from six analysts.

The estimate reflects a 0.5% increase from 1.895 billion pounds at the end of June and a 5.2% drop from 2.009 billion pounds at the end of July last year.

Estimates ranged from 1.875 billion to 1.960 billion pounds, with a median of 1.900 billion pounds.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 195.699 million bushels in July, the most in six months, while end-of-month oil stocks held by NOPA members rose slightly to 1.379 billion pounds.

 

China boosts soybean buys from Argentina, Uruguay amid US trade war, sources say

Reuters News

• China 2025/26 soybean imports from Argentina, Uruguay may reach up to 10 million tons
• LatAm suppliers benefit from China’s reduced reliance on U.S.
• China has yet to book US soybean imports for fourth quarter

China’s soybean importers are boosting purchases from Argentina and Uruguay over the next year to fill the supply gap left by the absence of U.S. shipments as the trade war drags on between Washington and Beijing, according to two trade sources.

Chinese processors may buy up to 10 million metric tons of soybeans from the two South American exporters during the 2025/26 marketing year ending next August, which would be a record, said the sources, a Singapore-based trader at an international company which sells soybeans to China and a second person who trades soybeans for China.

They have already booked 2.43 million tons from Argentina and Uruguay for shipment from September to May next year, the sources said.

From September 2024 to July 2025, China imported 5 million tons of soybeans from the two countries, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

The rise in supply from the two Latin American producers will add to large imports from Brazil to China, dealing another blow to U.S. exporters as the world’s biggest soybean importer reduces its dependence on U.S. farm products.

With more soybean suppliers to China, the country will need less from the U.S., which will help in the trade war, said the Singapore-based trader.

This year, China has not booked any U.S. soybean purchases for shipment in the fourth quarter, which is typically the key sales period for the United States as freshly harvested supplies reach the market.

The world’s top two economies have imposed tit-for-tat import tariffs that have taken a toll on commerce, particularly agricultural goods such as soybeans.

By mid-August, Chinese buyers had booked 1.575 million tons for September loading from Argentina and Uruguay, 660,000 tons for October, and smaller volumes of 66,000 tons each for November, December, and May 2026, the traders said.

Since the trade war with China in U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, Beijing has taken steps to reduce its reliance on American farm goods to bolster its food security.

The U.S. supplied 12% of China’s agricultural imports in 2024, down from 20% in 2016, while Brazil supplied 22% last year, up from 14% in 2016, according to Chinese customs data.

The second trader said the higher imports from Argentina and Uruguay are primarily because China is not buying U.S. beans and also because both countries have had bumper harvests.

Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean harvest was 50.9 million tons, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed, up from 48.2 million tons a year ago and 25 million tons in 2022/23 when a severe drought curbed yields.

In Uruguay, soybean output was 4.2 million tons in the 2024/25 period, up from 3.3 million tons a year ago, the USDA data showed.

 

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates Aug. 28: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn production estimate maintained at 49m tons
• Harvesting advanced to 97.2% from 95.9%

 

EU Cuts Grain Output Forecast for 2025-26 on Smaller Corn Crop

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 276.9m tons in the 2025-26 season, down from a July forecast of 278.4m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook.

• The crop projection for corn was cut to 57.6m tons from 60.1m tons
• The soft-wheat forecasts was slightly raised, to 128.1m tons from 127.3m tons
• The barley outlook was also raised to 53.7m tons

 

Late season acreage adjustments increase Brazil total corn production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2024/25 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 137.4 [133.9–140.8] MILLION TONS, UP 4% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil corn production is raised by 4% to 137.4 [133.9–140.8] million tons, after acreage adjustments to some key first crop corn and second crop Safrinha corn areas of the Central-West, the South and the Northeast. We have adopted CONAB’s state-level area projections for top three Safrinha crop producing states such as Mato Grosso, Paraná, and Goiás, where the discrepancy was deemed to be excessive. By the same token, five first crop corn region estimates (i.e. Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Goiás, Bahia, and Mato Grosso) were adopted from CONAB’s latest projection as well. This leads to an increase in Safrinha crop production to 110.1 million tons (up 7.3 million tons compared to last update) and a decrease in the first crop production of 24.8 million tons (down 1.1 million tons from last update). Our 2025/26 new season Brazil corn production outlook is scheduled to be released in early October.

 

Indonesia projects stable biodiesel exports growth to EU following WTO ruling

Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade has projected the annual biodiesel export growth rate to the European Union (EU) to remain at 6.7 percent, following the country’s recent victory in a World Trade Organization panel dispute on countervailing duties (CVD).

“We certainly hope that our biodiesel export projections will continue to grow at 6.7 percent,” said Djatmiko Bris Witjaksono, the ministry’s director general of international trade negotiations, at a press conference in Jakarta on Thursday.

According to the ministry, Indonesian biodiesel exports have fluctuated over the past decade, with a decline recorded in 2020-2021 after the imposition of CVD in 2019. The downturn was also influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and a global drop in biodiesel exports.

During the CVD period from 2020 to 2024, Indonesia’s biodiesel exports to the EU still grew by 6.7 percent, with an average annual value of 319.7 million U.S. dollars.

Djatmiko stressed that Indonesia must also balance exports with domestic demand, in line with its energy transition targets. National biodiesel consumption is expected to reach 15.6 million kiloliters by 2045, which could influence future export volumes.

“If we look at the 6.7 percent figure, it can be maintained or even grow,” he said.

He also confirmed that the EU, through the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA), has committed to opening greater market access, particularly for palm oil and its derivatives.

“Market access is a commitment from the IEU-CEPA, which recognizes that palm oil and its derivatives from Indonesia are renewable and sustainable,” he added.

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Aug. 26: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Aug. 26, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas remained at 5% in the week
• Drought in soybean areas rose to 11% from 9%

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 485k tons in the week ending Aug. 23 from 667k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 29% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 27.4% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.63 per short ton, an increase of $0.12 from the previous week

 

Billionaire investments could boost corn ethanol production by 50% by 2027

After a period of retraction, the corn ethanol industry in Brazil has picked up pace again. New investments announced in July should boost production by more than 50% by the 2026/27 harvest. According to a survey by Itaú BBA, supply will rise from the current 8.2 billion liters (2024/25 harvest) to more than 12.1 billion liters in two years.

The mapping identified 21 active projects, which together should require an additional 14 million tons of cereals per year to produce 6.1 billion liters of ethanol. The total estimated investment volume is around R$23 billion, plus around R$5 billion in working capital. In the investment schedule, R$15 billion would be disbursed between 2025 and 2027.

The survey shows that of the 22 projects identified in the 2024 study – including new plants and expansions – three have already been completed, 13 are still under construction or in the pipeline, and six have been postponed. It is noteworthy that all the postponed projects belong to groups that would have made their debut in the sector, which highlights the segment’s challenges, especially given the high cost of capital in Brazil.

Among the active projects, 12 are already under construction, with a combined capacity of 3.1 billion liters per year. The other nine are being planned and, if feasible, should add another 3.0 billion liters of capacity. For Itaú BBA, the expansion should have a significant impact on the Matopiba region, traditionally lacking in biofuel supply, but which may feel greater pressure on grain supply.

Another point to watch out for is the geographical dispersion of the new plants, many of them in areas where hydrous ethanol consumption is still low. However, this decentralization could contribute to increasing the use of biofuel in the North and Northeast regions, as well as encouraging the cultivation of corn there.

The region that will be most impacted by the new projects will be Matopiba and the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás, which will reach a combined capacity of 6.6 billion liters more in corn ethanol production when the projects that are under construction or in the pipeline are at full capacity.

 

 

 

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