Global Ag News For Aug 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Survey confirms lower protein, high test weights in French wheat

Updated quality results from this year’s French soft wheat harvest showed that 69% of the crop had a protein content above 11%, down from 74% last week and well below a five-year average of 83%, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Wednesday.

For test weights, another measure of milling quality, the survey conducted with crop institute Arvalis showed that 93% of the 2025 crop had test weights above the 76 kilograms per hectoliter threshold, compared to 95% last week and well above the 62% average.

The survey also showed that 99% of this year’s crop had Hagberg falling numbers, another milling specification, above 250 seconds, down from 100% last month and a five-year average of 83%.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 0.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 in SRW, down 8 1/2 in HRW, down 11 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 3/4; Soybeans down 13 1/4; Soymeal down $3.10; Soyoil down 2.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 in SRW, down 34 1/4 in HRW, down 24 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 3/4; Soybeans up 56 1/4; Soymeal up $11.80; Soyoil down 2.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.9% in SRW, down 12.7% in HRW, down 7.3% in HRS; Corn is down 16.5%; Soybeans up 2.8%; Soymeal down 5.4%; Soyoil up 31.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 23 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil down 28; Palm oil down 42; Corn up 19 — Malaysian Palm is down 52.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 52 ringgit (-1.16%) at 4436.

There were changes in registrations (-40 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 475 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 27 were: SRW Wheat down 14,438 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,575, Corn down 3,968, Soybeans up 6,299, Soymeal down 10,136, Soyoil down 1,462.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 28 August 2025

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

• NORTH AMERICA: There is a growing potential for a prolonged period of cold conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt into late next week
• SOUTH AMERICA: The EC Sub-seasonal forecast continues to indicate a shift to cooler/wetter weather by mid-September across Central Brazil
• EUROPE: Increasingly wet conditions in France over the next 7 days will affect national harvests, while flood risks will rise in the western Alpine region
• BLACK SEA: Warm and dry conditions in Bulgaria/Romania through the next 10 days will support a rapid corn harvest
• TROPICS: Extended forecasts show no tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico through the first half of September and potential developments are limited to the Western Pacific

Northern Plains: After the recent cooler air, temperatures will rebound closer to normal on Wednesday. Dry conditions are forecast through Thursday, but a weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool through next week.

Midwest: Cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it get a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

Delta: Showers remain limited across the region until a low-pressure center moves along the front on Thursday and Friday. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible across southern Missouri and Arkansas. Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region, and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well.

Canadian Prairies: After this past weekend’s cooler temperatures, they will moderate and largely go above normal through the weekend. With most crops maturing and awaiting harvest, the frost was not a major issue, but could have affected some fields. Precipitation will be very limited this week and the overall dry conditions will be favorable for harvest. Another shot of cooler air will arrive early next week, but frost will likely not be widespread.

Brazil: Recent rainfall in the south has been helpful for heading to filling wheat. After a brief stretch of cooler temperatures, they’re expected to trend above average late this week and this weekend. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week, but showers will be spotty.

Argentina: While some advanced wheat could have received damage from recent frosts, temperatures will start to trend warmer late this week. A system will move through late Friday through the weekend, which should bring more widespread rainfall. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture well ahead of the spring planting season.

Europe: An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent that will last into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September. Temperatures will fluctuate between near to below average in the west through next week while above-average temperatures remain likely in the east.

 

The player sheet for 8/27 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, and sellers of 2,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a tender which closed on Wednesday
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons on Wednesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 21.

• Corn est. range 1,000k – 2,600k tons, with avg of 1,917k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 1,000k tons, with avg of 733k

 

Canadian 2025-26 Wheat Crop Seen at 35.6M Tons

Canadian 2025-26 wheat production seen rising to 35.6m metric tons from 35m last season, according to a Bloomberg survey of five analysts

• Estimates varied from 34.2m tons to 37.1m tons
• Canola production seen 4.6% higher at 20.1m tons
• Statistics Canada in Ottawa is scheduled to release its estimates on Aug. 28 at 8:30am ET

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.6% to 22.549M Bbl

Dominic Carey

(Bloomberg) — According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.752 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.07m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.073m

 

China Books Australian Canola Cargoes After Canada Trade Spat

China has booked at least three shipments of Australian canola, potentially ending a years-long freeze as the Asian nation seeks to diversify its sources following a trade fallout with major supplier Canada.

Cofco International Ltd. booked the cargoes for the fourth quarter, likely arriving at Chinese crushing plants after December, according to people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak to the media. Canola is usually crushed for animal feed in China.

Canada was the top supplier of canola to China last year but relations between the two countries soured after Ottawa slapped levies on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. Beijing has retaliated with tariffs on Canadian supplies of the oilseed, which is also known as rapeseed.

Australia is the world’s second-biggest exporter of canola but has been shut out of China’s market since 2020 due to so-called phytosanitary concerns, which can include plant disease. Farmers usually start harvesting their crop around late September and most shipments go to the European Union and Japan.

State-run Cofco and its global trading arm Cofco International — headquartered in Geneva — and China’s Ministry of Commerce didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

“This is an active and ongoing government-government discussion and details have not been finalized,” an Australian government spokesperson said.

Given the Australian cargoes are booked for the fourth quarter, there is still a possibility for changes, such as cancellation or diversion.

Last year, China purchased 6.39 million tons of canola, almost all of it from Canada. Cofco started making inquiries on Australian supplies earlier this year, with interest accelerating after further moves against Canada last month.

 

Argus Raises Russia 2025-26 Wheat Output Forecast to 86.1m Tons

Argus Media raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 soft-wheat crop harvest to 86.1m tons from a June projection of 84.8m tons.

• That would be the third-biggest harvest on record in Russia
• Ukraine soft-wheat harvest seen at 21.9m tons
• Argus sees record soft-wheat harvests in Spain, Romania, Bulgaria
• Soft-wheat harvest outlook for France unchanged at 33.4m tons from July projection, rebounding from “catastrophic” production the year before
  • Amid stable domestic and European demand, increased French production means the country needs to export “massively” more to non-EU markets to balance its supplies
  • France needs to ship 9.5m tons outside the EU, but Argus only forecasts 8m tons of sales outside the block, “an already ambitious objective, which would leave a final stock of 4m tons – a level not seen in the past 20 years in France”
  • France, which has lost the Algerian market due to political tensions and has seen decreasing Chinese purchases, should focus on boosting exports to Morocco and sub-Saharan Africa, while exploring new markets. Recent contracts with Egypt and countries in Southeast Asia illustrate this need to diversify
• EU corn output seen dropping 4m tons to 55m tons in 2025 compared with last year
• US corn harvest seen at record 412m tons in 2025, up by 35m tons from last year

 

South Africa Crops Body Lifts 2025 Corn-Crop Forecast by 5.1%

Crop Estimates Committee increases forecast for commercial-corn output in 2025 to 15.8 million tons.

• The harvest would be 23% bigger than a year earlier, it says in an emailed statement
• It raises the estimate for production of the white variety by 4.5% to 8.08 million tons, and increases the forecast for output of yellow corn by 5.8% to 7.7 million tons
• Non-commercial corn-crop estimate unchanged at 621,500 tons
• NOTE: White corn is used to make a staple porridge known as pap while the yellow variety is mainly used in animal feed

 

Egypt Raises Local Wheat Purchase Price for 2026 Season

Egypt’s government raised the price paid for local wheat to 2,250-2,350 Egyptian pounds per ardab, according to the cabinet.

• Price in previous season was 2,100-2,200 Egyptian pounds per ardab

 

U.S. corn production slightly up despite crop disease concerns in western Corn Belt

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 415 [404–425] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Continued favorable August weather across the Plains/Upper Midwest, overall high condition scores, and mostly positive early September weather prospects slightly (<1%) increase 2025/26 U.S. corn production to 415 [404–425] million tons, despite late season crop disease concerns in some areas of western Corn Belt due to lingering wetness. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 August), USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 425.26 million tons, above our median projection. Our current estimate puts planted area at 96.3 million acres, up 6.3% from last season, which is 0.92 million acres below the USDA’s August estimate of 97.25 million acres. Yield is estimated at 185.4 bushels per acre (bpa) (vs. USDA’s 188.8 bpa), which leads to a production of 16.32 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s 16.74 billion bushels). The recently concluded (18-21 August) ProFarmer Crop Tour has found the strong potential for a record high corn yield/production this season as expected, but ultimately pegged it at 182.7 bpa and 16.2 billion bushels, respectively, both below the USDA’s latest projection.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 25 August) put total national-level corn dented at 44%, in line with the 5-year average as well as last year’s pace. Crop condition scores continue to remain around at least 5-year high, with now 71% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 65%), despite a consistent downward trend since mid-July. Better than expected overall weather conditions have been a key contributing factor to high yield potential this season, starting in May – when it was not excessively wet for sowings but beneficial enough to improve soil moisture conditions where needed. Most of the excessive wetness in June occurred outside of the central Corn Belt during this period (largely focused on areas to the southwest of the main Corn Belt), while long awaited above average rains benefited some of the driest areas including the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, and southern Illinois. Hot temperatures dominated the Corn Belt in July as expected, but a series of widespread precipitation events during the month offset much of the downsides, keeping soil moisture levels afloat. Some lingering localized excessive wetness has fostered the spread of various crop diseases, especially across the western-central and northern parts of the Corn Belt, warranting attention. Most key areas of the Corn Belt will now likely see a shift in weather pattern soon and welcome dry conditions into early September, which should help the plants to dry down/mature properly and get prepared for harvest.

 

Heat in the North China Plain slightly lowers China corn production, even as conditions remain favorable in the Northeast

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 299.0 [294.1–303.1] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Persistent high temperatures were recorded in the North China Plain throughout July and August. Although a brief period of cooler weather occurred from August 8-12, hot and dry conditions have returned to the major corn-producing regions in Henan and Shandong over the past two weeks. These hot temperatures may have adversely impacted corn pollination, shortened grain-fill periods, and reduced overall yield potential. In contrast, Northeast China has experienced favorable weather, with sufficient soil moisture and near-normal temperatures. Near-record high vegetation densities (NDVIs) confirm good to excellent crop conditions in this area. Offsetting updates have slightly decreased China corn production to 299.0 million tons, which is approximately 4.1 million tons higher than the previous season.

 

Fertilizer Sales Slow in Brazil as Farm Credit Crunch Deepens

Fertilizer purchases for Brazil’s corn season have slowed significantly as the country grapples with a surge in farm-loan defaults and record delinquency rates of 3.94%. Interest rates have also spiked to their highest level since 2006, adding 20% to farmers’ costs and pushing barter ratios to historic highs.

 

Urea, MAP, Potash Prices Edge Lower in Brazil

Brazil urea at midweek was reported at $440-$465 a metric ton (mt) cost-and-freight, below last week’s $460-$490/mt, with the low reflecting product of Chinese origin. Granular ammonium sulfate held at last week’s $180-$190/mt. Though stronger ammonium sulfate prices in China should reflect a $195-$200/mt level in Brazil, sellers have yet to be able to pass the increase on to buyers. Brazil monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices slipped to $720-$740/mt from last week’s $740-$750, with minor-concentration phosphates fueling the decline. Potash in Brazil was down slightly, to $345-$355/mt from last week’s $345-$360, as inventories remain high and liquidity for September limited.

 

Brazil soy farmers, Bayer clash over seed ‘breeding incentives’

An association representing soybean farmers nationwide asked Brazil’s antitrust watchdog to formally complete a pending review of a case challenging the legality of “breeding incentives” offered by one biotechnology company to its commercial partners.

According to a public complaint lodged in mid-August with competition watchdog CADE, Aprosoja Brasil specifically expressed concern regarding the timing for issuance of a final opinion by the agency’s General Superintendent regarding the case.

The latest significant development came in September 2023, when CADE’s Economic Studies Department concluded “the granting of breeding incentives led to a decrease in the number of cultivars developed with alternative technology” to Bayer’s Roundup Ready, according to public disclosures. Two months later, CADE’s SG concluded additional studies that supported the department’s findings.

“The case is ripe,” Amanda Oliveira, a lawyer representing Aprosoja before CADE, told Reuters.

In Aprosoja’s filing, it calls on the SG to issue its final recommendations, allowing the matter to be heard before CADE’s tribunal. Oliveira said farmers fear delays triggering a “statute of limitations,” which bars legal claims after a certain period of time of the alleged injury.

CADE declined to comment.

In a statement, Bayer defended its breeding incentives program targeted at breeders which develop germplasm, or genetic resources, adapted to the biotechnologies it creates. The contracts signed by Bayer that included breeding incentives were “submitted, scrutinized, adjusted, and approved by CADE in a series of merger proceedings between 2013 and 2016,” it added.

Bayer, which completed its acquisition of Monsanto in 2018, said its soy biotechnologies helped farmers boost yields in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the oilseed.

“Farmers have a wide variety of seed options from other companies, and it is up to them to decide which soybean variety and technology best suits their needs,” Bayer said.

 

 

 

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