Global Ag News For Aug 27.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Indonesia says US agrees tariff exemption for its palm oil, cocoa and rubber

• US fuel storage investment in Indonesia discussed
• Indonesia wants to attract investors into industrial parks
• Focus on silica sand processing for solar panels, semiconductors

The United States has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesian exports of cocoa, palm oil and rubber from the 19% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump since August 7, Indonesia’s top trade negotiator said on Tuesday.

The exemption will take effect once both sides reach a final agreement, but no timeline has been set because the U.S. is busy in tariff talks with other countries, Airlangga Hartarto, who is also the chief economic minister, told Reuters.

The two countries also discussed potential U.S. investment in fuel storage in Indonesia in partnership with the Southeast Asian nation’s sovereign wealth fund Danantara and state energy firm Pertamina, Airlangga said in an interview.

“We are waiting for their response, but during the meeting, basically, the principal (exemption) has been agreed for products not produced in the U.S., such as palm oil and cocoa and rubber … it will be zero or close to zero,” he added.

The U.S. embassy in Jakarta did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Indonesia is the world’s biggest exporter of palm oil and a major rubber supplier.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil up 0.20.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil down 1.64.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 14 in SRW, down 30 1/2 in HRW, down 13 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans up 63 3/4; Soymeal up $15.20; Soyoil down 1.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.2% in SRW, down 12.5% in HRW, down 5.2% in HRS; Corn is down 15.7%; Soybeans up 3.5%; Soymeal down 3.8%; Soyoil up 33.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 32 yuan; Soymeal down 42; Soyoil down 74; Palm oil down 26; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 19.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 19 ringgit (+0.43%) at 4489.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 515 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 26 were: SRW Wheat down 15,361 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,330, Corn down 22,441, Soybeans up 1,677, Soymeal down 7,515, Soyoil up 1,219.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 27 AUGUST 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A heatwave will expand across the western Canadian Prairies, affecting the conditions of late-developing spring crops
• SOUTH AMERICA: Recent models maintain the forecast of heavy rains across the Pampas at the end of this week, with rainfall totals exceeding 100 mm in the wheat crop areas of Cordoba
• AUSTRALIA: Light frost may occur across the elevated wheat crop areas of New South Wales at the end of this week
• SOUTH ASIA: Persistent rains across western-central India (Maharashtra) over the next 10 days will pose the risk of flooding
• TROPICS: Tropical Storms Fernand over the Atlantic and Juliette over the Pacific will remain over the open waters and pose no land threat

 

HEATWAVE APPROACHES CANADIAN CROPLANDS, U.S. FACES NOTABLE COLD SPELL

What to Watch:

• Cold and dry conditions in the U.S. Cron Belt will reduce growing degree days at late stages of spring crop development
• Heatwave will expand across the western Canadian Prairies and may affect mature wheat conditions

  

Northern Plains: Colder air moved into the region late last week and will stick around for another day before temperatures rebound to near normal midweek. Morning lows fell into the 30s both Sunday and Monday mornings in a couple of spots, but frost generally did not occur. Dry conditions are forecast for much of the week, but a weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool through next week.

Midwest: Cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it get a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

Canadian Prairies: Temperatures will moderate and largely go above normal over the next couple of days. With most crops maturing and awaiting harvest, the frost was not a major issue, but could have affected some fields. Precipitation will be very limited this week and the overall dry conditions will be favorable for harvest.

Europe: An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent starting on Tuesday and lasting into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September.

 

The player sheet for 8/26 had funds: net buyers of 1,250 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 8,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house Cargill at an estimated $267.50 a ton cost and freight included (c&f) for shipment in the first half of October, they said. Reports reflect assessments from traders and further estimates of prices and volumes were still possible later.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat, European traders said. Shipment is sought in one consignment in a series of possible combinations in the second half of September and first half of October. The deadline for submission of price offers is believed to be August 27. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 22 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly higher than last week at 1.073m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.752m bbl vs 22.688m a week ago

 

India Reduces Wheat Stockpile Limit for Traders and Retailers

The government cut the stockpile limit for traders and wholesalers to 2,000 tons from 3,000 tons, according to a statement from the food ministry.

• It also lowered the requirement for retailers to 8 tons from 10 tons; the cap for processors has been set at 60% of their monthly installed capacity, against 70% earlier
• The restriction on reserves will be effective until March 31, 2026
• NOTE: India’s wheat production climbed to a record 117.51 million tons in the 2024-25 season; the crop is harvested from the middle of March
• NOTE: India’s average wheat retail price was 31.57 rupees a kilogram on Tuesday, up 2.4% from a year earlier: government data

 

IKAR Raises Russian Wheat Harvest Forecast to 86 Million Tons

IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat harvest in 2025 to 86 million tons, up from 85.5 million tons, according to Director General Dmitry Rylko.

• The revision is due to higher-than-expected yields in the Volga and central regions, Rylko said
• IKAR also increased its wheat-export forecast for the 2025-26 season by 0.5 million tons to 43 million tons

 

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching 7.8 Million Tons In August – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 8.9 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 8.94 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.13 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 2.33 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.8 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 8.05 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

EU Wheat Exports Down 48% So Far in 2025-26; French Data Missing

The EU’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled about 2.18m tons as of Aug. 24, compared with 4.15m tons at a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Saudi Arabia (254k tons), Morocco (195k tons) and Nigeria (129k tons)
• Barley exports were about 1.4m tons, up 14% y/y
• Corn imports total 1.62m tons, down 56% y/y
• NOTE: The commission says export data is incomplete for France since the start of 2024 and missing for the 2025-26 season
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland also incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season. Import data for Romania is missing for the past three weeks
  • “The Commission services are in contact with member states concerned working to resolve the issue”

 

Analysts lift Australia’s wheat harvest forecast on improved crop conditions

Australia is on track to produce between 32 million and 35 million metric tons of wheat in its upcoming harvest, according to analysts, who raised their forecasts after an improvement in crop conditions and said they could further upgrade them.

That level of production would be similar to last season’s 34.1 million tons and well above the 10-year average of 27.6 million tons, adding to global wheat supply at a time when benchmark Chicago prices are near their lowest since 2020. Wv1GRA/

Australia is one of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat, barley, canola and other crops.

The government’s ABARES agency is due to publish its latest harvest projections on September 2. Its last estimate, issued in June, was for a 30.6-million ton wheat harvest this season.

Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters, said he lifted his wheat forecast by 7% this month to 33.1 million tons.

“I’ve got a feeling ABARES will be even more bullish on their numbers,” he said.

“There is potential for these figures to go higher.”

Widespread rain during July and August boosted soil moisture, though crops in the south and southeast, which were dry earlier in the season, remain behind schedule.

“September is critical. If we get through that without any major frost events (or) heat stress then this crop will continue to grow,” Baker said.

Harvesting begins in October.

Four other analysts estimated output to be in the 32 million-35 million ton range, with most saying that production is more likely to exceed estimates than fall short.

Australia is also likely to carry over several million tons of unexported wheat from the last harvest, which combined with a large new crop, should push down prices, said Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia.

Analysts forecast a barley crop between 13.2 million and 16 million tons, compared with year-ago 13.3 million and a 10-year average of 11 million tons. They predicted a canola harvest between 5.8 million and 7.2 million tons, compared with last year’s 6.1 million tons and a 10-year average of 4.8 million tons.

 

Ukraine 2025 wheat crop seen at 21.8 million tons, corn at 28 million-29 million – farm union

Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest is forecast at a maximum of 21.8 million metric tons, down from 22.7 million tons in 2024, the UAC farmers’ union said on Wednesday, slightly raising its outlook for this year’s corn crop.

Ukraine is a major global supplier of grains, including wheat and corn, and exports about 40 million tons in total per season.

The Economy Ministry has forecast this year’s wheat harvest at 21 million tons, but the UAC – the largest Ukrainian farming union – said that estimate did not include output from small farmers that could add 500,000 to 800,000 tons.

Official data showed Ukraine’s farmers had harvested 21 million tons of wheat, with crops gathered from 98% of the sown area as of August 22.

UAC added that low demand had caused milling wheat prices to fall by several dollars over the past week to approximately $228-$230 per ton carriage paid to (CPT).

“There is competition with Russia in the North African markets. There are many sellers in the market, and we are seeing a seasonal decline in prices,” UAC said, adding that prices could decrease to $222-$225 per ton CPT in the near future.

The union slightly increased its outlook for Ukraine’s 2025 corn output to up to 29 million tons from 28 million tons previously.

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry sees corn production at 28 million tons.

UAC said traders were gradually starting to contract corn, and that about 3.2 million tons of the grain had already been contracted from September to December.

“The main competition will come from American corn, and we will be competing with them for the European market. Our advantage is that our corn is GMO-free,” UAC said.

Ukraine will start the corn harvest in September.

 

Ukrainian wheat production slightly increased due to favorable harvest weather

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 20.9 [20.4-21.3] MILLION TONS, UP 0.8% FROM LAST UPDATE

We slightly increased our total production forecast for Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat to 20.9 million tons, aligning with the official government estimate of 21.0 million tons. Production without Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is kept at 19.9 million tons. As of August 22, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy, reported that farmers have threshed 4.873 million hectares, with total harvest reaching 21.0 million tons.

Our total production forecast for Ukrainian wheat was based on worse-than-average NDVI profile. The vegetation densities (NDVI) values are below the long-term median across the country since the beginning of May. Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has experienced cooler temperatures across the country. Small precipitation was noted in the wheat producing Oblasts, allowing the harvest to be completed at a similar pace to last year. Looking ahead, warm and dry conditions are expected across the region in the coming 10 days. The long-term weather forecast for September predicts moderate temperatures and dry conditions, which should not cause any obstacles for farmers finishing their fieldwork.

 

Lower area decreases 2025/26 Kazakhstan wheat production outlook

2025/26 KAZAKHSTAN WHEAT PRODUCTION: 16.3 [15.5-17.1] MILLION TONS, DOWN 1.5% FROM LAST UPDATE

Reductions in sown area decrease 2025/26 Kazakhstan wheat production to 16.3 [15.5-17.1] million tons. Provisionally adopting the acreage reported by the Bureau of National Statistics, we lowered wheat area slightly to 12.4 million hectares. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of August 25, 2.2 million hectares (3.1 million tons) of grains have been harvested by farmers.

Over the past two weeks, Kazakhstan experienced cooler-to-normal temperatures, and precipitation surpluses (18-37 mm above normal) in the northern Oblasts. Vegetation density index (NDVI) values in the major wheat-producing regions are above the long-term median, confirming good crop conditions, setting national yield level at 1.32 t/ha.

Looking ahead, cooler temperatures and heavy rainfall are expected across Kazakhstan starting from next week, which may delay ongoing harvesting campaign.

 

Malaysia To Start Producing Sustainable Aviation Fuel By 2025-End- Deputy Minister

Malaysia is expected to start producing Sustainable Aviation Fuel, or SAF by this year-end, the deputy plantation minister said Wednesday.

The ministry is advancing Malaysia’s SAF industry through licensing facilitation, strategic feedstock planning, collection campaigns, policy updates, a proposed Kuala Lumpur International Airport blending mandate and sustainability studies to secure long-term competitiveness, Chan Foong Hin said in the upper house of parliament.

“The ministry is confident that the implementation of these measures will strengthen Malaysia’s position as a leading producer and exporter of SAF in the region, while also creating new opportunities for the national agri-commodity industry,” Chan added.

 

Human screwworm case poses no risk to agriculture, says USDA official

• Human screwworm case is the only one this year, says USDA undersecretary
• USDA learned of the human case only in recent days, says official
• No timeline to reopen U.S.-Mexico border to cattle imports

The human case of screwworm reported this week by U.S. health officials is the country’s only one so far this year and poses no risk to the farm sector, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official said on Tuesday.

Screwworm, a flesh-eating parasite that eats its hosts alive, has moved northward through Central America and southern Mexico, putting the U.S. cattle industryon high alert.

A screwworm infestation can be fatal to livestock if untreated. An outbreak could cost the economy of Texas, the top cattle-producing state, nearly $2 billion, according to U.S. estimates.

The human case in a person who had traveled from El Salvador to Maryland was confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on August 4, but the agency did not publicly disclose it until Reuters exclusively reported on the case on August 24. The affected person fully recovered and there was no sign of spread to other people or animals, Maryland state health officials told Reuters.

In the USDA’s first remarks on the subject, Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said on Tuesday at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois, that the agency had only recently learned of the case.

“I don’t know the exact date that she learned about it, but we found out about it I think it was over the weekend,” he said, referring to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

When asked why the case was not announced sooner, Vaden said he was not familiar with the CDC’s notification process and added that the human case poses no risk to U.S. agriculture.

Following Vaden’s comments, the USDA released a statement late on Tuesday, saying the CDC has been leading the response to the human case. In support of that response, the USDA initiated targeted screwworm surveillance in a 20-mile (32 km) radius including parts of Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia, which had so far not detected the pest.

The release did not clarify when the agency learned of the human case or initiated its surveillance. The USDA did not immediately respond to a request to clarify the sequence of events or whether Rollins has communicated with CDC about the case.

The release also said the risk to U.S. public health from the human case is very low and that there have been previous travel-associated human cases of screwworm. The USDA has not detected screwworm in livestock or other animals since 2017, the release said.

Conservation and cattle groups previously told Reuters that the CDC’s delay in publicly reporting the case erodes trust between producers and government agencies.

The USDA is investing $750 million to build a Texas facility that would produce and distribute sterile flies to mate with the wild screwworm population and drive down their numbers.

Vaden said the plant will open in about 18 months. Rollins previously said it could take two to three years for such a facility to come online.

Animal health experts have told Reuters that a number exponentially greater than the current supply of sterile flies would be needed to stop the spread of screwworm.

The USDA has also been working closely with Mexican officials to combat the spread of the pest, though the U.S. decision to keep its border mostly closed to Mexican cattle imports since May has injected some fresh tension into the countries’ ongoing trade deal negotiations.

There is still no timeline to reopen the border, and the USDA is sending a team to Mexico in two weeks to verify that Mexico is following protocol to prevent screwworm’s northern spread, Vaden said.

 

Vietnam Ministry Seeks Mandatory Use of Biofuels From Jan. 2026

Vietnam’s trade ministry proposes all gasoline for motor vehicles nationwide should be blended with 10% ethanol starting Jan. 1, 2026, according to a report on the ministry’s website.

• The trade ministry’s proposed roadmap also requires all gasoline for motor vehicles nationwide to be E15 or other biofuel blends from Jan. 1, 2031
• Increased biofuel use could boost US ethanol and corn imports and help balance Vietnam’s trade with key partners, report says

 

JBS Says Australia to Boost Beef Exports to US on Brazil Tariffs

US tariffs on Australian beef are just 10% while supplies from Brazil incur a levy of almost 70%, Christiane Assis, JBS’s director of investor relations, said at a conference in Sao Paulo.

• Australia’s cattle industry is in a “very positive’ moment, with ample supplies and high margins
• Nation should have ample cattle supplies for the next year or year and a half, she said

 

 

 

 

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