Global Ag News For Aug 25.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Severe drought may hit Ukraine winter rapeseed sowing, forecasters say

The ongoing drought in central, southern and eastern regions of Ukraine may have a negative impact on winter rapeseed sowing, which has already begun, state weather forecasters said at the weekend.

Ukraine is a major European rapeseed grower and exporter with winter rapeseed accounting for the vast majority of the crop.

“The lack of moisture accumulation in the soil will have the greatest impact on winter rapeseed, which is best sown between August 25 and September 10,” forecasters said in a report.

Forecasters said that the most difficult conditions were in the southern, south-eastern and central regions where the period without rainfall reached 30-80 days.

In these regions, precipitation during the period from June 1 to August 20 amounted to only 30-60% of the norm, they added.

In some areas of the southern Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk regions, precipitation during the summer was just 5% to 25% of normal levels.

“Both the upper and deep soil layers were almost completely depleted of moisture,” the forecasters said.

Ukrainian agricultural analysts have said that sunflower fields have been the hardest hit by the drought, significantly reducing their estimates for this year’s harvest.

Ukraine is a major global sunflower seed grower and sunflower oil exporter.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil down 0.09.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 5 3/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 9; Soybeans up 17 1/4; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil up 1.91.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 3/4 in SRW, down 21 1/4 in HRW, down 11 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 69 1/4; Soymeal up $17.10; Soyoil up 0.49.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.9% in SRW, down 10.5% in HRW, down 4.4% in HRS; Corn is down 14.3%; Soybeans up 3.8%; Soymeal down 1.3%; Soyoil up 37.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 9 yuan; Soymeal up 16; Soyoil up 32; Palm oil up 68; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is down 36.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 36 ringgit (-0.79%) at 4493.

There were changes in registrations (-603 Soymeal). Registration totals: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 555 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 22 were: SRW Wheat down 12,902 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,044, Corn down 35,887, Soybeans down 12,724, Soymeal down 8,370, Soyoil up 3,891.

 

WIDESPREAD COOLDOWN EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. NEXT WEEK

What to Watch:

• Sharp temperature shift underway
• Dry conditions expected across most regions

Northern Plains: Colder air moved into the region late last week and sticks around for a few days before temperatures rebound to near normal midweek. Dry conditions are forecast for much of the week, but a weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week.

Midwest: A big cold front moved through the region over the weekend and temperatures have fallen significantly behind it. The cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it get a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

Delta: Though a front moved into the region and largely stalled, showers have been isolated to non-existent over the weekend and very few showers are forecast in the region until a low-pressure center moves along the front on Thursday and Friday. Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region, and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well.

Canadian Prairies: Cold air moved into the region over the weekend and some patchy areas of frost were noted or possible in several areas. Potential continues on Monday before temperatures moderate and largely go above normal. With most crops maturing and awaiting harvest, the frost is not a major issue, but could have affected some fields. Precipitation will be very limited this week and the overall dry conditions will be favorable for harvest.

Brazil: A front moved into the south over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain, which are helpful for heading to filling wheat. Some frosts will be possible behind the front for the next couple of mornings, which could be damaging. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week.

Argentina: Frosts developed in some areas over the weekend, which may have been damaging to some more advanced wheat. A couple more frosty mornings will be possible across the north that will need to be monitored as well. A system will move through late Friday through the weekend, which should bring more widespread rainfall. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture well ahead of the spring planting season.

Europe: An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent starting on Tuesday and lasting into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September.

Black Sea: A system brought showers through Ukraine over the weekend, but turned into very isolated showers in southwestern Russia, which has endured a lot of heat and dryness again this summer. Dry conditions for much of this week will continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and sunflowers. It also puts winter wheat planting behind schedule in many areas, which should start up in September.

Australia: A front produced areas of heavy rainfall again in Western Australia over the weekend, as conditions for winter wheat and canola have been increasing in recent weeks. The front will struggle to produce much precipitation for southeastern Australia early this week, which has been suffering more of a dry trend and needs rain as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages. A system may move through later this week that would possibly bring more widespread showers that would help. However, it will also bring in some cold air and damaging frosts will be possible as well.

China: A stalled front continued to produce beneficial rainfall to central China over the weekend. The region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Another front will move through midweek with more potential beneficial showers. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

 

The player sheet for 8/22 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 7,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: Exporters sold 119,769 metric tons of U.S. corn to Costa Rica and 140,452 metric tons of U.S. corn to Spain, all for delivery in the 2025-26 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• RICE PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. purchased an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States in an international tender that closed on August 8.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Cattle on Feed Placements Fell to 1.6M Head in July

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more fell 6.1% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

• Analysts were expecting a drop of 9%
• The US feedlot herd as of Aug. 1 were down 1.6% y/y to 10.922m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 5.7% to 1.749m head

 

Crop tour projects record 2025 US corn harvest, but disease could hit yields

• Disease pressure in Midwest could impact corn, soybean yields
• Corn, soybean futures rise as USDA forecasts questioned
• Favorable weather in most of the main growing states supported crops

U.S. farmers will harvest a record corn crop in 2025 after ideal weather across much of the Midwest this summer, but the bounty will fall short of the U.S. government’s lofty outlook as pockets of plant disease and heat stress dented yields in spots across the farm belt, crop consultancy Pro Farmer said on Friday.

Growers are also expected to reap a bumper soybean crop, although dry conditions in parts of the eastern Midwest and pockets of disease pressure in Iowa may limit yield potential, Pro Farmer said after its annual four-day tour across seven top-producing states this week.

The United States is the world’s top corn exporter and No. 2 soybean exporter, and favorable weather in most of the main growing states supported crops but pushed futures prices to recent multi-year lows.

The warm and wet conditions that fueled crop growth also fostered fungal diseases such as tar spot, southern rust and northern blight in corn, and sudden death syndrome in soybeans.

“Each day we’ve noted the disease pressure in corn. Tar spot, southern rust more widespread than we’ve ever seen before. Those are going to be some real yield robbers,” said Lane Akre, Pro Farmer economist and one of the leaders of the tour’s eastern leg.

Pro Farmer projected 2025 U.S. corn production at a record 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, and soybean production at 4.246 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.0 bpa.

The outlook is below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest forecast for corn production at a record 16.742 billion bushels with yields averaging 188.8 bpa, and soybean production at 4.292 billion bushels with record average yields of 53.6 bpa.

 

China says ‘rampant’ US protectionism threatens agricultural ties

• China says US protectionism hurts agricultural cooperation
• Farmers should not pay for trade war, says Chinese envoy
• Beijing criticizes US farmland purchase curbs as political

U.S. protectionism is undermining agricultural cooperation with China, Beijing’s ambassador to Washington said, warning that farmers should not bear the price of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

“It goes without saying that protectionism is rampant, casting a shadow over China-U.S. agricultural cooperation,” said Xie Feng, according to the transcript of a speech published by the Chinese embassy on Saturday.

Agriculture has emerged as a major point of contention between China and the U.S. as the superpowers are locked in a tariff war launched by President Donald Trump.

China in March slapped levies of up to 15% on $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products in retaliation for sweeping U.S. tariffs. Washington and Beijing this month extended a truce for 90 days, staving off triple-digit duties on each other’s goods.

U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 53% in the first half of the year from the same period in 2024, with a 51% decline in soybeans, Xie said in the speech to a soybean industry event in Washington on Friday.

“American farmers, like their Chinese counterparts, are hardworking and humble,” Xie said. “Agriculture should not be hijacked by politics, and farmers should not be made to pay the price of a trade war.”

The envoy said agriculture is a promising area of cooperation and a “pillar of bilateral relations”. China has a comparative advantage in labour-intensive products, while the U.S. excels in land-intensive bulk commodities through mechanised, large-scale production, he said.

Last month U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Washington would curb farmland purchases by “foreign adversaries,” including China.

The Department of Agriculture said it had fired 70 foreign contract researchers after a national security review intended to secure the U.S. food supply from adversaries including China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Xie dismissed the U.S. concerns. “Chinese investors hold less than 0.03% of U.S. agricultural land, so where does the claim of ‘threatening U.S. food security’ even come from,” he said, calling the U.S. restrictions a “political manipulation”.

U.S. soybean exporters risk missing out on billions of dollars worth of sales to China this year as trade talks drag on and buyers in the top oilseed importer lock in cargoes from Brazil for shipment during the key U.S. marketing season, traders say.

 

Brazil’s 2025/26 soy crop seen growing 3% versus the previous cycle, says AgResource

The 2025/2026 soybean crop in the world’s largest soy producer, Brazil, is estimated at 176.5 million metric tons, a 3% increase from the previous cycle, consultancy AgResource said on Friday.

The area of the Brazilian soy crop in the 2025/2026 season is seen growing 2%, the slowest pace in five years, to 48.7 million hectares (120.3 million acres), according to AgResource.

Farmers in Brazil usually kick off planting the new soy crop around September.

Meanwhile, AgResource sees the 2025/2026 corn crop in Brazil, which farmers have already begun to sow, at 138.4 million tons, up 0.7% from the amount estimated for the previous cycle.

The second corn crop, which is planted in Brazil in the same fields as soybeans after soybeans are harvested, is seen contributing to 110.4 million tons of the total, a 2% increase, the consultancy firm said.

It added that the total corn area for the 2025/2026 season in Brazil is expected to expand 1.3%, while the area for the second corn crop specifically is seen edging up near 2%.

 

Bunge Set to Send Another Cargo of Soy Meal to China

Crop trader Bunge has chartered bulk carrier Kashing to load a cargo of Argentine soybean meal to China, according to people familiar with the matter.

• 30,000-ton cargo will load at the T6 terminal on the Parana River, said the people, who asked not to be named because the information is private
• Ship expected to arrive at the River Plate estuary on Sept. 15
• Kashing is currently off the coast of northern Brazil heading for Imbituba, Bloomberg vessel tracking shows
• Bunge declined to comment
• NOTE: T6 is a joint venture between Bunge and Argentine trading house AGD
• NOTE: Argentina’s first cargo of meal to China was diverted to Southeast Asia

 

Trump EPA Waives Refiners From Biofuel-Blending Mandate

The Trump administration granted some oil refineries exemptions from mandates requiring them to blend renewable fuels into gasoline and diesel, while delaying a critical decision over how much other oil companies will be forced to pick up the burden.

The decision by the Environmental Protection Agency applies to requests from small refineries seeking waivers from annual blending quotas dating back to 2016, according to a statement on Friday. The EPA said it had granted full exemptions to 63 refinery petitions for biofuel-blending waivers while issuing 77 partial exemptions. At the same time, it denied 28 petitions for relief and cast seven aside as “ineligible.”

The EPA’s ruling on small refinery exemptions — the first under the new Trump administration — will affect costs for oil companies in complying with the US biofuel-blending mandate. Biofuel producers say it also threatens to curb demand for their products — as well as the corn and soybean crops used to make them — at a time when farmers have seen trade disputes limit their export markets.

The issue presents a major test for President Donald Trump and two loyal segments of his political base: oil and agriculture. While some farming and fossil-fuel interests had increasingly aligned on biofuel policy, that relationship has been tested by the EPA’s ambitious June proposal that oil refiners blend record amounts of biofuels into gasoline and diesel in 2026 and 2027.

 

Indonesia urges EU to remove biodiesel import curbs after WTO ruling

• Indonesia urges EU to revoke biodiesel duties after WTO ruling
• Duties deemed non-compliant with WTO rules, Indonesia says
• Indonesia-EU disputes persist despite nearing free trade pact.

Indonesia urged the European Union on Monday to immediately scrap countervailing duties on imports of biodiesel, after the World Trade Organization backed several of its key claims in a complaint to the trade body.

The world’s biggest palm oil exporter had contended in its 2023 complaint that the duties levied by the European Union, its third-largest destination for palm oil products, broke the trade body’s rules.

“We urge the EU to immediately revoke these countervailing import duties that are not WTO-compliant,” Trade Minister Budi Santoso said in a statement after the WTO’s ruling last week.

The dispute is the latest squabble between the bloc and Indonesia, following rows over biodiesel tariffs and palm oil’s link to deforestation, as they edge nearer to signing a free trade deal, after a political agreement struck in July.

The EU has imposed the duties, ranging from 8% to 18%, since 2019, saying the Southeast Asian nation’s biodiesel producers benefit from grants, tax benefits and access to raw materials below market prices.

The trade ministry said the WTO panel held that Indonesia’s export duty and export levy on palm oil could not be categorised as a subsidy.

The EU Commission failed to prove a threat of material harm to European biodiesel producers caused by imports of the Indonesian fuel, it added.

Indonesia’s exports of palm oil-based biodiesel stood at 27,000 kilolitres (kl) in 2024, after having plunged to 36,000 kl in 2020 from 1.32 million kl in 2019.

The Indonesia Biofuel Producers Association doubts the EU will comply with the request, going by past experience, Catra de Thouars, an official of the association, told Reuters, however.

“We, as an industry, must remain vigilant and ready for any movement by the EU after this ruling,” he said, adding that Jakarta was still in dispute with Brussels over the EU’s anti-deforestation rules that could affect its palm oil shipments.

The countervailing duties came a year after the European Court of Justice had ordered the EU to do away with anti-dumping duties on imports of Indonesian biodiesel.

However, Jakarta expects the upcoming free trade pact to open the way for greater market access for palm oil, among other products.

The WTO’s finding can be appealed.

But no final ruling is possible since its top appeals court ceased functioning in 2019, due to repeated blockages of judicial appointments by the first administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

 

Fertilizer Sales Stall in Brazil as Farm Credit Crunch Deepens

Fertilizer purchases for Brazil’s corn season have slowed significantly as the country grapples with a surge in farm-loan defaults and record delinquency rates of 3.94%. Interest rates have also spiked to their highest level since 2006, adding 20% to farmers’ costs and pushing barter ratios to historic highs.

 

US Egg Production Fell 2.5% in July From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 8.79b eggs in July vs 9.02b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs fell 3% y/y to 7.48b
• Hatching eggs up 0.5% to 1.31b

 

China to Beef Up Trade-In Policy Support, Analysts Say: CSJ

China may enhance its financial support for the consumer goods trade-in policy and expand its scope to boost domestic consumption, China Securities Journal reports, citing analysts.

• Authorities should accelerate the expansion of the program into areas such as services consumption, Liu Xiangdong, a senior researcher with the government think-tank China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said
• China is likely to strengthen support for the program as its effects have been obvious since its launch, Wang Qing, an analyst at Gold Credit Rating, said
• Meanwhile, China’s subsidized consumption loan policy that will be launched next month is expected to drive the consumer finance industry to expand into more categories, Securities Times reports, citing people in the industry

 

 

 

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