Global Ag News For Aug 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Argentine rains seen boosting corn planting area to near-record size

Argentina’s corn planting area is expected to span some 7.8 million hectares this 2025/26 season, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, up 9.6% from the area that was planted for the current season thanks to abundant rains.

If planted, this will be Argentina’s second-largest area ever planted with the staple yellow crop, after the 8.4 million hectares recorded in 2023/24. Corn planting is set to begin in September.

The exchange estimates that Argentina, the world’s third-largest corn supplier, produced some 49 million tons in 2024/25.

In a report, the exchange pointed to better water conditions ensuring good availability of moisture across much of the country’s agricultural heartlands ahead of the early planting phase.

It also marks a recovery from last season, when farmers held off planting due to fears of a plague of leafhopper bugs, which carry a stunting disease that damages the plant’s cobs and kernels.

The separate Rosario grains exchange also hailed the abundant rainfall over recent months, saying this could bring the coming crop to among the country’s highest ever levels.

Some 50 to 150 millimeters (2 to 6 inches) of rain fell across the core agricultural area in recent days, the Rosario exchange said, marking record levels for August after a similar trend last month.

“The 2025 season is progressing with a production potential that could be among the highest in history,” it said in a report, saying the rainfall also boded well for the upcoming soybean season, set to begin planting in October.

Argentina produced 49.5 million tons of soy in 2024/25. The Rosario exchange has yet to give forecast for this season. It expects the country to produce some 20 million tons of wheat, after farmers recently finished planting their fields.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil up 0.27.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 3/4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/4; Soymeal up $1.10; Soyoil down 1.51.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 3/4 in SRW, down 17 in HRW, down 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/4; Soybeans up 45; Soymeal up $19.60; Soyoil down 3.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.4% in SRW, down 9.7% in HRW, down 3.8% in HRS; Corn is down 16.7%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal down 4.8%; Soyoil up 29.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal down 18; Soyoil down 4; Palm oil up 36; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 36.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 36 ringgit (-0.80%) at 4462.

There were changes in registrations (-34 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 1,255 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 20 were: SRW Wheat down 3,370 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,183, Corn down 10,993, Soybeans down 597, Soymeal down 9,449, Soyoil down 3,034.

 

Moderate weather outlook for September in Europe, with potentially wetter France

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

What to Watch:

• The LSEG monthly forecast predicts moderate temperatures across most of the E.U. for September, with cooler than normal Eastern Europe and Western Russia
• France may experience excessive rainfall, posing risks at final harvest stages and planting activities
• Rainfall in the Black Sea region is unlikely to bring much improvement to drought-affected croplands.

Northern Plains: A strong front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will continue to drop through the region over the next couple of days with scattered showers. Another front will move through late this week and weekend, stalling across the south where rain may be heavy going into next week. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind that front that will make it feel like fall. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

Midwest: A front brought scattered showers as it passed through the region this week, but missed some key areas in southern Illinois as well as some parts of Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio that have been drier over the last few weeks. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that are drier. These dry areas need rain though to finish up, but this run of dryness is not good for that prospect.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue in the region, especially across the south. Though a front is moving into the region Wednesday and another will move in and stall this weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton.

Canadian Prairies: A system will move across the region through Friday, bringing some rainfall and being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures behind the front will take a dive, especially across the east through the weekend. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur. Largely dry weather follows for next week, which would be beneficial for maturing and harvest of crops.

 

The player sheet for 8/20 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, and buyers of 500 soymeal.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: Exporters sold 100,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Colombia and 125,741 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, all for 2025-26 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Syria will issue an international tender to import 200,000 metric tons of wheat to help cover a domestic supply shortfall, the Ministry of Economy and Industry told Reuters, without specifying a date for the tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria has issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 90,200 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

 

 

 

TODAY

Crop tour finds strong corn, soy potential along with diseases in Illinois, western Iowa

• Illinois soybean pod count highest since at least 2003
• Western Iowa sees above-average corn, soy prospects
• Timely rains boost crops but also spread diseases
• Full Iowa crop figures to be released Thursday, Pro Farmer estimates Friday

Corn yield potential and soybean prospects are significantly above average across Illinois and western Iowa, though plant diseases could threaten final yields, scouts on an annual crop tour of the Midwest said on Wednesday.

The four-day Pro Farmer crop tour, which started on Monday and covered seven major corn and soybean states, found strong production potential so far. Grain market participants have been monitoring the tour’s findings to gauge the size of the 2025 harvest in the United States, the world’s largest corn exporter and No. 2 soybean supplier.

The tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Illinois, the top soy-producing state, at an average of 1,479.22, above last year’s tour average of 1,419.11 pods and the highest in tour records, which date back to 2003.

The tour projected the Illinois corn yield at 199.57 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 204.14 bpa in 2024, but the second-highest on tour records.

In Iowa’s western third, the tour’s corn yield forecasts and soybean pod counts were well above the three-year averages. It will release full statewide figures for Iowa on Thursday.

Timely rains benefited crops in western Iowa but also promoted the growth of fungal diseases such as southern rust in corn and sudden death syndrome in soybeans, which tend to lower crop yields.

“I think we’ve lost 10% of the yield due to disease,” Roger Cerven, an Iowa farmer who is on the tour, said of sudden death syndrome in soybeans.

For corn, southern rust was so widespread in some Iowa fields that scouts emerged with sleeves covered in dusty orange-colored residue from rust spores on corn leaves.

The extent of any impact of diseases on yields won’t be fully known until crops are closer to harvest, scouts said, but some effects may emerge sooner.

“The crop, I think, is going to look a whole lot different in 10 days or two weeks than what it does right now,” said Chip Flory, one of the tour’s leaders.

Roughly 100 crop scouts are on the tour, which wraps up in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday. The editors of Pro Farmer, a newsletter, will release their own estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production on Friday.

 

Western Iowa crops exceed expectations, but disease risks remain, tour scouts say

Corn yield potential and soybean prospects were significantly above average across western Iowa, though crop diseases could threaten final yields, according to scouts on an annual tour of the major corn-producing state on Wednesday.

In northwest Iowa’s Crop District 1, the tour projected corn yields at 197.89 bushels per acre (bpa), above the 176.59 bpa last year and the three-year tour’s average of 180.09 bpa.

Corn yields in west-central District 4 were pegged at 207.25 bpa, well above the tour’s average yield of 195.86 bpa last year and higher than the district’s three-year average of 181.79 bpa.

Corn yields in southwestern District 7 were seen at 195.03 bpa, up from 191.59 in the year-ago period and the three-year average of 183.38 bpa.

Soybean pod counts per 3-by-3 foot area averaged 1,279.25 pods in District 1, up from 1,108.76 last year and the three-year average of 1,111.91 pods.

Pod counts in District 4 averaged 1,376.15, up from 1,254.09 in 2024 and the three-year average of 1,211.11 pods.

In District 7, soybean pod counts averaged 1,562.54, surpassing last year’s count of 1,366.22 and the three-year average of 1,253.45.

The tour will release statewide Iowa figures on Thursday.

 

Crop tour sees stellar Illinois soybean prospects, corn yield down from 2024

The average soybean pod count in Illinois is the highest on the Pro Farmer crop tour in at least 22 years while its corn yield potential is the second-highest, trailing last year’s estimate, scouts on the annual tour of top grain-producing states said on Wednesday.

The four-day crop tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Illinois, the top soybean producing state, at an average of 1,479.22, above last year’s tour average of 1,419.11 pods and the highest in tour records, which date back to 2003.

The crop tour projected the Illinois corn yield at 199.57 bushels per acre (bpa), down from the tour’s 2024 Illinois average of 204.14 bpa but above the three-year average of 196.19 bpa.

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 14.

• Corn est. range 950k – 2,000k tons, with avg of 1,525k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 1,100k tons, with avg of 800k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.2% to 22.688M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.77 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.072m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.09m

 

SovEcon Raises Russia Wheat Forecast on Record Yields in Siberia

Russia’s wheat production is expected to reach 85.4m tons in the 2025-26 season, an increase from the 85.2m tons forecast last week, according to agriculture consultancy SovEcon.

• Favorable weather may lead to record harvests in Siberia and the Urals
• “Yields in non-southern regions continue to confirm our optimistic expectations”: SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov
• “However, while good crops may offset losses in the South, it will take time to deliver that wheat to Azov and Black Sea ports, complicating Russia’s export program over the next few months”: Sizov.

 

Ukraine’s grain, oilseed harvest projected to drop 5 pct in 2025-2026

Ukraine’s grain and oilseed harvest is projected to drop by 5 percent in the 2025-2026 marketing year to about 73.4 million tons, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).

A forecast released by the UCAB on Wednesday indicates that grain output is expected to decline by 3 percent to 54.6 million tons, while oilseed production is projected to drop by 11 percent to 18.8 million tons.

Specifically, farmers are expected to harvest 26.7 million tons of corn, 21 million tons of wheat and 10.1 million tons of sunflower seeds.

According to the Ukrainian Grain Association, in the 2024-2025 marketing year, which ended on June 30, Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports totalled 46.7 million tons, down from 57.5 million tons in the previous season.

 

Bunge diverts Argentina’s first soy meal shipment set for China

Agricultural export firm Bunge BG.N told Reuters on Wednesday it had diverted a shipment of Argentine soybean meal that was destined for China to another destination “for commercial reasons,” after reports this was due to quality concerns.

The shipment had been set to mark Argentina’s first soy meal cargo to China since Beijing approved imports in 2019.

Bunge was responding to a report from Bloomberg earlier on Wednesday that said, citing unnamed sources, that the cargo was diverted due to concerns it might fail to meet Chinese quality specifications.

Gustavo Idigoras, the president of the South American nation’s CIARA-CEC grains exporting and crushing chamber, told Reuters the diverted 30,000 metric ton shipment was now destined for Vietnam following a request from the importer.

“It is for commercial reasons related to the importer’s needs to supply consumption in Vietnam,” he said, noting this was an option in the contact.

Bunge did not immediately reply to a request for comment on the new destination.

China normally buys soybeans from Argentina to process in its own plants, but analysts have recently noted that Beijing has been taking advantage of lower prices in the South American market.

Reuters reported late July and early August that China had made two purchases of Argentine soy meal totaling 60,000 tons.

The world’s biggest exporter of soybean meal, Argentina last year shipped 27.2 million tons worldwide, for some $10.55 billion. Vietnam is its largest importer, buying up some 15% of sales last year.

 

Indonesia June Palm Oil Exports Rise to 3.606m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose to 3.606m tons in June from 2.664m tons in May, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output rose to 5.289m tons from 4.561m tons in May
• Palm oil stockpiles fall to 2.530m tons from revised 2.915m tons in May
• Palm oil domestic consumption rose to 2.072m tons from 2.029m tons in May
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption rose to 1.080m tons from 1.039m tons in May

 

IMPACT OF US MARKET RESTRICTIONS ON MALAYSIAN PALM OIL EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL

The Ministry of Plantation and Commodities (KPK) expects the direct impact of the United States (US) market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry to be minimal.

According to the KPK, the main factor contributing to this is the specific characteristics and functions of Malaysian palm oil which has been certified sustainable through the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification, making it difficult to replace with other oils in the global market.

“Therefore, the level of industry dependence in the US on sustainable palm-based materials is high,” the ministry said on the parliament website in reply to a question from Kamal Ashaari (PN-Kuala Krau) on the government’s short- and medium-term plan for the palm oil industry to adapt to the US market.

In 2024, Malaysia exported 191,231 tonnes of palm oil to the US. This value was only 1.1 per cent of the country’s total palm oil exports for the year.

At the same time, the KPK said the government remains committed to providing various forms of aid, particularly for smallholders.

Among which are the Oil Palm Smallholders Replanting Financing Incentive Programme as well as special grants such as the supply of products for the control of ganoderma stem rot disease to assist smallholders.

“This type of assistance can help to reduce the impact on smallholders in Malaysia from changes in international trade policies,” it added.

 

NCGA says Brazil’s ethanol tariff burdens U.S. commerce

The president of the National Corn Growers Association says Brazil’s 18% tariff on U.S. ethanol imports is unreasonable.

Kenneth Hartman Jr. tells Brownfield Brazil was once a top market for U.S. ethanol producers.

“That (tariff) basically was a freefall of us selling ethanol into the Brazilian market. We’re just frustrated with this because obviously we’ve got a big crop coming on here.”

Last month, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office announced a U.S. Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s trading practices, specifically on ethanol. Hartman says the investigation allows USTR to determine if a foreign country has taken unfair trade actions that burden or restrict U.S. commerce.

“We appreciate President Trump and his diligence to look into unfair practices. This is definitely unfair practice.”

He says NCGA is seeking a fair resolution.

“The resolution I would see is if we’re going to have tariffs, then they need to be tariffs similar for either country. Or, have no tariffs that we can basically sell ethanol into Brazil and they can sell ethanol back.”

U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil have decreased from $761 million in 2018 to $53 million in 2024, according to data from NCGA.

 

Moderate late season weather across the spring wheat belt bodes well for U.S. wheat production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 52.9 [51.4–54.6] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Late season weather conditions, crop ratings and harvest progress fractionally increase 2025/26 U.S. total wheat production to 52.9 [51.4–54.6] million tons. In its August WASDE report (released on 12 August), the USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. wheat production at 52.45 million tons, slightly below our current projection. Our current median estimate puts national-level winter wheat yield at 52.6 bushels per acre (bpa), 1.7% above last season and also above trend yield. This leads to total winter wheat production of 37.6 [36.5–38.9] million tons. Production of total spring wheat is estimated at 15.3 [14.9–15.7] million tons (with durum and other spring wheat at 2.4 and 12.9 million tons, respectively), up slightly (<1%) from last update. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 18 August) indicates that the winter wheat season is largely coming to a close, with 94% complete so far, on par with last year’s 96% and the five-year average of 95%. Spring wheat is 36% combined as of 17 August, also in line with the five-year average, well ahead of last year’s 29%. A moderate precipitation pattern across the Dakotas and areas to the east should continue to support spring wheat late season activities, though temperatures could plummet around the end of the month, warranting attention.

 

Healthy soil moisture conditions keep Argentina wheat yield afloat despite localized flooding

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 20.2 [18.9–21.4] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina wheat production is largely unchanged at 20.2 [18.9–21.4] million tons, amid overall healthy soil moisture conditions across core producing areas of the eastern Pampas, as the crop’s prime growing season begins. Localized flooding concerns due to excessive moisture during July warrant attention. In August’s WASDE (released on 12 August) USDA placed Argentina wheat production at 19.7 million tons, slightly down from its July forecast of 20 million tons. A wet weather pattern continued to dominate the eastern half of the Pampas over the past two weeks, but with less intensity compared to late July/early August. Drier weather is in the forecast through early September, which should provide a much needed relief to wet soils. The current soil moisture conditions in top producing provinces such as Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, and western Córdoba are mostly healthy, but remain excessive in some core areas of Buenos Aires and eastern Córdoba, warranting attention.

 

Canada wheat production steady but heat risks to be monitored

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 35.0 [33.9–36.8] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Canada wheat production is unchanged at 35.0 [33.9-36.8] million tons, with early harvest season around the corner amid moderate weather. Over the past two weeks, temperatures and precipitation levels were generally favorable across the key producing wheat regions of the Southern Prairies, supporting positive late season development and harvest preparation. Crop vegetation densities (NDVI) derived from satellite imagery are above the historical median levels in Manitoba (MB) and Saskatchewan (SK), and above last year’s levels in Alberta (AB), indicating overall healthy crop conditions. Looking ahead, LSEG’s latest weather forecast calls for heat risks in AB and SK in the next 10 days. The impact of elevated temperatures should be closely monitored.

 

Brazil’s chicken exports may fall 2% as bird flu embargoes curb trade, lobby group says

• Brazilian chicken exports may drop due to trade embargoes -ABPA
• Brazil egg exports to surge 117% by 2025, driven by US demand

Brazilian chicken exports are expected to fall as much as 2% to 5.2 million metric tons this year, meat lobby ABPA said on Wednesday, citing the impact of trade embargoes by large importers following a local outbreak of bird flu in May.

Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, reported its first ever bird flu outbreak in a chicken breeding farm in the south.

Countries like China, Brazil’s top trade partner, have not yet lifted trade embargoes even though the Brazilian government managed to control the outbreak within a month. Other trade partners have gradually eased restrictions over time.

ABPA had previously expected Brazilian chicken exports to rise as much as 1.9% this year.

The group, which represents firms like BRF BRFS3.SA and JBS Z98.F, said Brazil’s egg exports were forecast to jump almost 117% to 40,000 tons in 2025, due largely to strong U.S. demand as egg supplies fell due to a bird flu outbreak there.

ABPA said it expected Brazilian chicken output to rise as much as 3% this year to 15.4 million tons, citing a potential increase in per capita consumption of up to 5.4% domestically.

For pork, Brazilian production this year is forecast to grow by as much as 2.2% to 5.42 million tons while exports could rise by 7.2% to 1.45 million tons, the group said.

 

China suspends Argentine poultry imports five months after ban lifted

China has suspended imports for Argentine poultry products from August 20, just five months after lifting a two-year ban.

The notice of suspension, which was posted on a customs website, did not state a reason for the move or how long the suspension might stay in place.

Customs authorities did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Beijing has also banned on poultry and related imports from its largest supplier, Brazil, since May and on imports from Spain this month, with authorities noting bird flu outbreaks in both countries.

The two-year ban on Argentine poultry followed the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the country’s commercial poultry.

“This decision may help support the prices of some poultry products as China has restricted imports from some major suppliers,” said Pan Chenjun, a senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong.

“However, its overall impact (on prices) is likely limited due to China’s current surplus of poultry meat and the industry’s ongoing financial struggles.”

China mainly imports poultry products such as chicken feet, chicken wings, and bone-in chicken pieces.

China’s poultry meat imports from January to July totalled 226,013 metric tons, down 2% compared to the same period last year, customs data shows.

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.