Global Ag News For April 20.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Indonesia to stop diesel imports, shift to palm oil fuel

TradeArabia

Indonesia will stop importing diesel fuel starting July 1, 2026, in line with the implementation of B50, a biofuel blend consisting of 50 per cent diesel and 50 per cent crude palm oil (CPO).

“We will no longer import diesel. Per July 1, 2026, we will stop (diesel import), as B50 comes into effect,” Minister of Agriculture Andi Amran Sulaiman stated at the Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology (ITS) here on Sunday.

According to him, the move is part of the government’s efforts to strengthen national energy independence by utilising palm oil as an alternative fuel.

He explained that palm oil can be processed not only into diesel but also into gasoline and ethanol, whose development is currently being accelerated.

“This is Indonesia’s future energy, as it is sourced from palm oil. Palm oil can become diesel, and it can also become gasoline,” he said as quoted by Indonesian news agency (ANTARA).

In addition, the government is preparing cooperation with state-owned plantation firm PTPN IV to develop palm oil-based gasoline on a small scale before expanding it into a large-scale industry.

“If this succeeds, we will expand it on a large scale. Indonesia’s future is bright,” he said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal down $2.60; Soyoil up 0.83.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 17 1/4 in SRW, up 44 3/4 in HRW, up 1/3 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/2; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal down $4.30; Soyoil up 2.17.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 in SRW, up 11 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/2; Soybeans down 2 1/4; Soymeal up $10.30; Soyoil down 0.14.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 18.4% in SRW, up 26.0% in HRW, up 14.5% in HRS; Corn is up 2.0%; Soybeans up 13.1%; Soymeal up 11.7%; Soyoil up 43.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 26) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal down 14; Soyoil down 32; Palm oil down 33; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 47.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 47 ringgit (+1.06%) at 4497.

 

There were changes in registrations (-90 Corn, -20 Soyoil). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 452 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,516 Soyoil; 187 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 17 were: SRW Wheat down 4,146 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,735, Corn up 6,691, Soybeans down 15,876, Soymeal up 4,441, Soyoil down 2,658.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 20 APRIL 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold temperatures with widespread frost in the Northern Plains and Western Midwest may affect spring crop sowing early next week
• SOUTH AMERICA: Persistently dry conditions are likely to continue for the next 15 days in southeastern Brazil’s coffee regions and central Brazil’s corn areas
• SOUTH AMERICA: A cold front is advancing across northern regions of Argentina, creating a risk of crop damage from severe storm events
• BLACK SEA: Low temperatures with overnight are forecast across northern Ukraine over the next 10 days, which may affect the ongoing development of winter wheat
• TROPICS: Tropical Storm Sinlaku has developed in the Eastern Pacific, may become a severe typhoon but is expected to remain well offshore

 

MOST CROPS IN THE E.U. AND BLACK SEA MAY EXPERIENCE A FAVORABLE SUMMER THIS YEAR

What to Watch:

• Key crop areas of the E.U and Black Sea region are likely to face a favorable summer without major heat stress risks
• Wet conditions are expected along the Western EU coast and Black Sea region, promoting crop growth and soil moisture levels, but mature crops in the Black Sea area may face risks later in summer
• Risk of dryness should be limited to the spring crop regions of Italy, Balkans, Continental Russia and Northern Kazakhstan

 

The player sheet for 4/17 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 23,000 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 14,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER PASSED: A Tunisian state grains agency is believed to have rejected offers and made no purchase in an international tender seeking about 25,000 metric tons of animal feed which closed on Friday, European traders said on Saturday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is April 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 105,950 tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 23.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase about 20,000 tons of rice sourced from the United States and Vietnam, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is April 28. Results of the tender may not be known for some weeks after price submissions, traders said.
• BARLEY TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 10,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Cattle on Feed Placements Fell to 1.71M Head in March

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more fell 7.3% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

• Analysts were expecting a drop of 6.7%
• The US feedlot herd as of April 1 were down 0.5% y/y to 11.576m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 5.5% to 1.632m head

 

China’s US soybean imports recover in March but lag year-earlier levels

China’s soybean imports from the United States rose in March from the first two months of the year as more shipments arrived after Beijing resumed purchases late last year, though volumes were still sharply lower than a year earlier.

Trade tensions had stalled Chinese buying of the U.S. autumn soybean harvest, with customs data showing no imports between September and December.

Purchases resumed after a late-October trade truce, with China buying about 12 million metric tons since then, now gradually reaching ports.

Imports from Brazil climbed in March but fell short of expectations due to tighter inspections.

 

China sees lower soybean imports in 2026 and over next decade, report shows

China is expected to import fewer soybeans, pork, beef and dairy products in 2026, with volumes projected to fall 6.1%, 8.2%, 3.9% and 4.1%, respectively, from a year earlier, according to an agriculture ministry-backed outlook released on Monday.

“Overall agricultural product prices are likely to remain stable, with most commodities expected to hold steady initially before rising later in the year,” the China Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 report said.

Grain output is forecast to reach 733 million metric tons by 2030 and rise further to 753 million tons by 2035, the report said, up 2.5% and 5.3% from a record harvest of 715 million tons in 2025.

Grain imports are projected to decline to 115 million tons by 2035 from 140.56 million tons in 2025. Soybean imports are forecast to fall to 82.55 million tons, down 26.2% from a record 111.83 million tons in 2025.

 

Indonesia March Palm Oil Exports Fall 45.9% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 45.9% m/m in March, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports fell to 1.285m tons from 2.376m tons in February
• Crude palm oil shipments fell to 20,500 tons from 282,930 tons in February
• RBD palm olein shipments fell to 474,429 tons from 953,824 tons in February
• RBD palm oil shipments fell to 208,029 tons from 444,606 tons in February
• Palm oil sales to European Union fell to 226,668 tons from 276,187 tons in February
• Palm oil sales to India fell to 157,670 tons from 650,556 tons in February
• Palm oil sales to China fell to 210,221 tons from 439,002 tons in February

 

Russia Cuts Wheat Export Duty to Zero for April 22-29: IFX

Russia cuts wheat export duty to zero for April 22-29 from 329 rubles per ton a week earlier, Interfax reports, citing Agriculture Ministry.

• NOTE: April 7, Russian Wheat Exports Seen at 3.7M Tons in April: Rusagrotrans

 

Russia ships first wheat to Iran via Caspian Sea in years

Russia sent wheat to Iran through the Caspian Sea for the first time in years in the first quarter of 2026, data showed on Friday, as the landlocked salt lake gains importance as a trade route between the two countries due to the war in the Middle East.

Iran had already been receiving Russian barley and corn via the Caspian Sea but wheat was being sent from the country’s Black Sea ports to Iran’s main grain terminals on the Strait of Hormuz.

The data from the agriculture ministry’s grain quality control unit showed that in the first three months of the year, Russia shipped 500,000 metric tons of feed corn, 180,000 of feed barley and over 4,000 tons of food grade wheat from its Caspian ports to Iran, the third-largest buyer of Russian wheat this season.

“The Caspian ports have not seen export wheat for more than eight years, the entire flow was directed to the Black Sea, to Novorossiysk,” said Alexander Sharov, head of consultancy RusIranExpo.

In March, Russia exported 300,000 tons of grain via the Caspian Sea, compared with almost no shipments in March 2025, when export restrictions were in place for barley and corn, according to shipping data from industry sources released this week.

The agriculture ministry data showed that grain shipments from the Astrakhan region rose 61% to 730,000 tons in the first quarter. The shipments were mainly destined for Iran.

Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has been enhancing its Caspian Sea export logistics in recent years, also targeting markets in the Gulf states, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

It operates three grain ports on the Caspian Sea, two in Astrakhan and one in Makhachkala, with a combined capacity of at least 3 million tons. A new, 1.5-million-ton terminal in Makhachkala is expected to become operational in 2028.

 

US buyers redirect imported fertilizer overseas as Iran war drives up global prices

U.S. fertilizer buyers are redirecting shipments out of the country, as higher overseas prices give them an incentive to divert critical supplies, a fertilizer analyst said.

Barges of imported urea nitrogen fertilizer were purchased this week at the Port of New Orleans for export overseas, said Josh Linville, vice president for fertilizer at financial services firm StoneX.

“We saw a lot of physical barges that were being traded. They were linked to exports,” Linville said, adding, “It is feasible to buy barges on the Mississippi River, reload them on a vessel, and ship them out.”

Since the U.S. and Israel launched a war with Iran on February 28, nitrogen fertilizer prices have soared, with more than 30% of global exports caught in Iran’s near closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Israel said on Friday the waterway had fully reopened after Israel’s ceasefire with Lebanon, sending oil prices sharply down.

 

US is leading G20 initiative to ensure fertilizer access, sources say

The U.S. is urging G20 members and the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to take coordinated action to ensure fertilizer access amid disruptions in food trade supply chains caused by the war in the Middle East, two sources familiar with the matter said on Friday.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent views fertilizer and agriculture supply chains as of essential importance, and is encouraging collaboration among G20 members and the global financial institutions, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

The IMF and others have warned that supply chain disruptions caused by the war, especially to fertilizer at the start of the critical growing season, threaten to push 45 million more people into a position of food insecurity.

Several sub-Saharan African nations already are seeking help, and the IMF expects at least a dozen countries to negotiate new lending programs with the global crisis lender as a result of the war, which has also sent energy prices sharply higher.

The U.S. is the current chair of the Group of 20 major economies, which includes Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, as well as the African Union and European Union.

The U.S. views fertilizer as intrinsic to food security, and views the initiative as an action that G20 members “can immediately move on,” said one senior U.S. official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

Details of the plan were not immediately available, but Washington is emphasizing the need for agility and flexibility in policy responses and cooperation on fertilizer.

The United Nations has been pushing a separate initiative to create a humanitarian corridor through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that fertilizer and other needed goods get through.

 

Ukraine Aims for 45.5M Tons Grain and Legumes Exports in Season

Ukraine expects to export 45.5 million tons of grain and legumes in the 2025/2026 marketing season, which ends June 30, the Ministry of Economy told Bloomberg in an emailed statement.

• This is 12% higher than the 2024/25 season: Ministry
• As of mid-April exports had reached 27.8 million tons: Ministry
  • That compares to 34.3 million tons by mid-April last season
• Russian war remains the main factor that directly affects both the agricultural production and exports: Ministry

 

Share of grain in Russian agricultural exports falls to 27% in 2025 -Agroexport

MOSCOW. April 17 (Interfax) – The share of grain in Russian agricultural exports amounted to 27% by value in 2025 against 37% in 2024, but it retained its leading position in total shipments, according to the Agricultural Exports of Russian Regions review prepared by the Agroexport federal center.

The share of oil and fat products increased to 22% from 20%, food and processing industry products rose to 14% from 12%, and fish and seafood increased to 14% from 11%, respectively.

Russia plans to reduce the share of grain in agricultural exports to 25% by 2030, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut previously said. Exports are increasingly focusing on supplies of high value-added products, she said.

According to the review, the highest average annual export growth rates for the period 2021-2025 were recorded in shipments of meat and dairy products, at 14.1%. Exports of oil and fat products grew 6.1% on average, while food industry products grew 3.6%. However, for exports of grain as well as fish and seafood, the indicator was negative – 0.1% and 2.6%, respectively. Compared to 2024, the largest revenue growth was recorded from exports of fish and seafood (22%), meat and dairy products (19.9%) and food industry products (12.2%).

Among the goods that showed the largest growth in shipments in the period from 2021 to 2025, the center highlighted lamb (fourteenfold), live animals (3.5-fold), sunflower seeds (3.1-fold), sugar (2.8-fold) and frozen edible pork offal (2.7-fold).

The center recalled that Russia exported agricultural products worth $41.6 billion in 2025. The discrepancy with the data of the Federal Customs Service ($40.9 billion) was previously explained by the fact that the service’s figures do not include exports of fish and seafood caught outside Russia’s customs zone, as well as a number of other items included in the Export of Agricultural Products federal project. In physical terms, exports amounted to 83.3 million tonnes.

Russia exported agricultural products to more than 170 countries in 2025. “As in the previous two years, China took first place in value terms among leading importers ($7.7 billion). Next are Belarus ($4 billion), Kazakhstan ($3.8 billion), Turkey ($3.8 billion), Iran ($2.9 billion) and Egypt ($2.3 billion),” Agroexport said.

The center also reported that almost 63% ($26.1 billion) of Russian agricultural exports were provided by ten regions with export revenues exceeding $900 million each last year. The top five remained unchanged: Moscow ($7.5 billion), the Rostov region ($5.2 billion), the Moscow region ($2.8 billion), the Krasnodar region ($2.25 billion) and Primorye Territory ($2.21 billion). The top ten also included the Kaliningrad, Belgorod, Novosibirsk and Murmansk regions and Kamchatka Territory. St. Petersburg, Lipetsk and Kursk regions left the top ten.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Index falls 5% this month

Cepea, 17 – Corn prices declined more sharply this week in Brazil, pressured by ample supply and the pressure from buyers. The depreciation of the US dollar against the Brazilian Real further reinforced the downward trend in the spot market. Between March 31 and April 16, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices (Campinas/SP) declined by 4.8%, to close at BRL 67.01 per 60-kg bag on April 16.

Buyers continue to monitor the progress of the summer harvest, weather conditions for the development of the second crop, and the recent sharp decline in the US dollar. As a result, trading activity remains limited, with only a few deals being closed. On the supply side, some sellers have shown price flexibility, but still face difficulties in trading large volumes.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values decreased by 2.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 2.4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) from April 9-16.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Soybean prices fall on record crop and weaker dollar

Cepea, 17 – Soybean prices declined this week in Brazil, pressured by the depreciation of the US dollar against the Brazilian Real and expectations of ample domestic supply. The US dollar fell 1.4% from April 9-16, closing at BRL 4.993, its lowest level since March 2024. This environment, combined with prospects for a record crop, has constrained market liquidity, as participants await more favorable trading opportunities.

Data from Conab indicate that the 2025/26 area is likely to increase 2.4% compared to the previous, at 48,472 thousand hectares, with average productivity at 3,696 kilos per hectare (+2%). Thus, the national output is estimated at 179.15 million tons, a new record, and up 4.5% against the previous.

The harvest has reached 85.7% of the area, and activities have finished in Mato Grosso and Paraná. In Rio Grande do Sul, on the other hand, irregular rainfall has affected productivity.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) declined by 1.2% from April 9-16, to close at BRL 120.31 per 60-kg bag on April 16. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 0.9% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 126.67 per 60-kg bag.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices decreased by 0.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.5% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) between April 9 and 16.

 

China agriculture minister urges pig breeders to reduce capacity as prices fall

China’s Agriculture Minister Han Jun urged the hogs industry to meet production-capacity reduction targets and scale the breeding sow herd to a reasonable level, the ministry said late on Friday, as hog prices languished at low levels.

Han met with industry representatives with a message to coordinate the advancement of capacity regulation and upgrade the industry to reduce cyclical volatility.

Home to half the world’s pigs, China’s massive hog sector is struggling with overcapacity and weak consumer demand.

Pig prices are hovering at a low level due to high production capacity and an inertia-driven increase in market supply, the statement said citing experts at the meeting.

The most-active live hog futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange DLHc1 touched its lowest level since the inception of the futures in January 2021 at 9,000 yuan ($1,320.25) per metric ton on April 13.

Prices then climbed to their strongest since March 9 at 11,295 yuan per ton on April 17, supported by concerns over potentially reduced supply due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the northwest region.

“Leading enterprises must take the lead in implementing capacity reduction requirements and refrain from reckless expansion,” the statement said.

The meeting called for the need to accelerate the culling of low-yielding, aging sows and weak piglets as they seek tighter policies to control production capacity.

The industry will also promote independent innovation in breeding, vigorously promote low-protein diet technology, and continuously improve the level of breeding standardization and intelligence, the ministry said.

 

China forecasts moderate-or-stronger El Nino to hit this summer, autumn

China’s National Climate Centre expects El Nino conditions to emerge in May and forecasts a moderate-or-stronger El Nino weather event in the summer and autumn, state media reported:

• The El Nino event is expected to last “at least through the end of this year”, the NCC said
• The forecaster said it is too early to say if global temperatures will hit a record high this year, but “related risk is rising significantly”
• In China, the El Nino effect generally causes increased rainfall in southern regions during autumn, raising the risk of disruptions to the harvest of late-season rice
• El Nino could also lead to warmer-than-usual conditions in winter, reducing water supplies for spring ploughing next year

 

DESPITE A LOOMING EL NIÑO, INDIAN MONSOON RAINS MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN 2026

WHAT TO WATCH:

• Forecast indicators/analogs suggest that the Indian monsoon is likely to be slightly drier than normal during June-September
• The prospects of a looming El Niño may be offset by a positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to keep seasonal rainfall close to normal, though a failed monsoon is also plausible
• North/central India is expected to be hit the hardest by dry conditions this year to the detriment of wheat, with high rainfall over southern India preventing downside risks to sugarcane

2026 INDIAN MONSOON FORECAST (JUNE-SEPTEMBER) & IMPACTS

Crop Impacts (sugarcane/wheat): Direct crop impacts from the Indian monsoon throughout June-September are focused on sugarcane development. Our forecast for a near normal monsoon with high rainfall focused on the south should prevent major downside risks to sugarcane, since a portion of the crop resides in the southern regions. Dry conditions are likely to be focused on north/central India. This will most negatively impact the upcoming wheat crop that will be planted after the monsoon season winds down, as reservoir levels for irrigation and soil moisture may be depleted.

2026 Indian Monsoon Outlook: Our official 2026 Indian monsoon outlook suggests that a below normal season is likely during June-September (Figure 1). The all area-weighted total in the forecast across India is 840 mm, which is 3% below a normal season. If this occurs, it will mark the first below normal monsoon season since 2023. 60% of the weighted analog years in the forecast experienced below normal monsoon rainfall, and 50% were failed monsoons. Therefore, while there is a reasonable (40%) chance that rains could still come in above normal during June-September, the strong influence of failed monsoons among the analogs suggests considerable potential for a failed monsoon in 2026 even if it is not the most likely scenario. There was even one extremely dry season (2014) in the top analogs, though such an outcome (seasonal rainfall more than 10% below normal) is unlikely this year. Nonetheless, the full range of outcomes for the 2026 Indian monsoon extends from moderately above normal totals to excessively dry conditions, highlighting the lean toward a dry outcome.

Forecast Drivers and Trends to Monitor: ENSO is typically an important driver for the Indian monsoon, and this year is no exception. El Niño development is anticipated during the June-September season, and it could become a strong event, though that would likely occur after the monsoon season ends. El Niño favors dry monsoons especially toward the latter portion of the season, and it specifically supports dry conditions over central/northern India with high rainfall in the southern regions (Figure 2). Therefore, the LSEG monsoon outlook for 2026 is very much in line with a typical El Niño season. An offsetting factor that is likely to limit the potential for a failed monsoon this year is the forecast for an increasingly positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during June-September, which typically brings widespread rains. Taken together, El Nino and the +IOD will combine to keep Indian monsoon totals in the near normal range (within 5% of normal), even if leaning on the dry side.

Long-term Climate Trends: One trend in Figure 1 that could have negative long-term crop impacts if it continues is the downward trajectory in Indian monsoon rainfall from 1980-present. Using linear regression, a trend line demonstrates a ~2% drop in June-September India all area-weighted rainfall over the past ~45 years. The presence of only one failed monsoon (2023) since 2018 put a dent in this trend, though the 2026 season and the potential for a long-lived El Niño could start to bend the long-term curve more sharply downward if a failed season develops in the next few years. Therefore, the situation warrants monitoring for interests in the region in the years to come as an issue with relevance on the climate change time scale (decades).

 

 

 

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