Global Ag News for Apr 25.24

TOP HEADLINES

Warmer winter seen hitting Argentine corn due to leafhopper outbreak

Argentine corn farmers are bracing for a warmer than usual Southern Hemisphere winter that will likely undermine efforts to reduce the population of leafhopper insects that damage the crop, the Rosario grains exchange (BCR) said on Wednesday.

Agricultural powerhouse Argentina is the world’s No. 3 corn exporter, as well as a major soybean, wheat and beef producer. Local corn yields, however, have been hit by explosive growth of leafhoppers, whose appetite for plant sap weakens corn plantings while triggering stunted growth and leaf yellowing. The insects also help spread plant disease.

Farmers were hoping that cooler weather in the weeks ahead could check the growth of leafhoppers, as they do not tolerate temperatures below about 39 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius). But the exchange forecasts that upcoming winter weather conditions are unlikely to help control the pest with “minimum temperatures at average values ​​or even slightly higher,” according to a BCR report citing climate specialist Alfredo Elorriaga.

“A particularly cold year is not expected,” Elorriaga said.

A separate report from the Buenos Aires grains exchange also released on Wednesday predicted cooler temperatures from this coming weekend, but they are not expected to fall below 41F (5C) in agricultural areas.

Earlier this month, BCR cut its corn harvest forecast by 6.5 million metric tons to settle at 50.5 million tons, citing damage attributed to the leafhopper outbreak for the downward revision.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil down 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 53 3/4 in SRW, up 51 1/4 in HRW, up 37 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans up 11 1/4; Soymeal up $4.40; Soyoil up 0.30.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 44 3/4 in SRW, up 54 1/2 in HRW, up 36 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans down 28 1/4; Soymeal up $6.60; Soyoil down 3.24.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.1% in SRW, down 2.1% in HRW, down 5.5% in HRS; Corn is down 6.9%; Soybeans down 10.2%; Soymeal down 10.7%; Soyoil down 6.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans up 42 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil down 34; Palm oil down 108; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 72. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 72 ringgit (-1.83%) at 3870.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 10 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 24 were: SRW Wheat down 4,503 contracts, HRW Wheat down 345, Corn down 10,790, Soybeans down 9,927, Soymeal up 4,658, Soyoil down 3,837.

Northern Plains: The region awaits potential for widespread and heavier showers starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. This favors the Dakotas more than Montana, but all areas have potential for some needed rain. If rain is heavy, it could lead to some wetter fields and slow planting progress. More disturbances will move through next week with areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Several storm systems are going to move through the region going into early May that will keep the region busy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain, and strong winds are all going to be on the table in the active pattern. That does include some better chances at getting moisture into drier areas around Kansas that have seen drought increasing lately, but could slow down planting progress in places that have better soil moisture at the moment like Nebraska. The gaps between storms will be short for at least the next 10 days. Though not all areas will see rain falling from each storm, this will likely lead to some sort of delay in planting.

Midwest: More frost is coming on Thursday morning after a small storm moved through on Tuesday that brought some heavier-than-forecast amounts in a streak from Illinois to northwest Ohio on Tuesday. Warmth will return late this week but so will an active pattern that will bring multiple storm systems through going into early May. Gaps between storms will be short, leading to delays in planting either due to soaked fields or just wet conditions.

Delta: Recent heavy rain has kept soils wet and likely caused some producers to delay planting, though that had been off to a quick start in most areas anyway. It will be quieter for most of the week with some isolated showers possible Wednesday and Thursday, but could get busy again as the storm track runs from the Southern Plains through the Midwest, bringing risks of thunderstorms, severe weather, and heavy rain through the region going into May. The region will be on the edge of the storm track though, and may luck out with some more limited precipitation in areas that have become too wet.

Canadian Prairies: Mixed conditions over the winter and early spring have not been able to affect drought much in the region, which is expansive. An active pattern this week and next will bring rounds of showers through the region, but nothing overly heavy or widespread is forecast at the moment, which causes some delays to planting without providing much for soil moisture. Eastern areas have done better recently, though, and soil moisture there may be more favorable than for most of Alberta.

Brazil: Much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dry for the foreseeable future, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest, will see showers for the next couple of days, but then pull back south later this week. The front makes a return next week, which may disrupt harvest, but may also get into the far southern safrinha corn areas as well.

Argentina: A front will continue to waffle around the northern end of the country through the weekend before getting pushed northward early next week. Areas of heavier rain will affect harvest and make it difficult going into May as well as lead to quality issues for a fairly good looking crop. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

Europe: Cool and wet conditions have infiltrated much of Europe over the last week and continues for most of this week as well. Frosts have been common across northern growing areas where wheat is less developed, but has likely slowed down early planting of summer crops. Areas in the northwest like France and the UK continue to be too wet while Spain and areas in the south are welcoming the rain. The storm track will favor western areas with rainfall starting this weekend as it dries out a bit farther east.

Black Sea: The storm track has favored systems moving through western and central Ukraine at the expense of eastern Ukraine and most of southwestern Russia recently. That pattern continues through the weekend before getting drier next week. Hotter and drier conditions in the east have been unfavorable for wheat that is developing quickly after a warm and wet winter. Crop conditions for winter grains are no doubt falling in the region while planting progress is likely quicker than normal.

Australia: Dry conditions are favored in most areas for the next week, though western areas should see some rain early next week and some showers may develop along the east coast next week as well. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in mostly favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays to planting as the country awaits better soil moisture conditions for winter crop establishment. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

The player sheet for 4/24 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 500 soybeans, sellers of 0 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 70,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 106,675 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending April 18.

• Corn est. range 475k – 1,150k tons, with avg of 758k
• Soybean est. range 350k – 900k tons, with avg of 638k

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.3% to 25.733M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.756 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.954m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.983m

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.48 Million Tns In April Versus 13.74 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week – Anec

Brazil: 111.8 [107.0–115.0] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Beneficial harvest weather raises India wheat production by 1% to 111.8 [107.0-115.0] million tons as the harvest season is near completion. Over the past 2 weeks, beneficial dry weather has persisted across major producing wheat regions in India. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, near normal temperatures and precipitation levels favorable for harvesting activities are expected to continue across the major wheat producing regions in India for the next 10 days.

Our production estimate is fractionally below the India Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare’s (MOAFW) estimate of 112.0 million tons. Vegetation densities (NDVI) derived from satellite imagery have consistently remained at or near record highs throughout the entire growing season across the primary wheat-producing states, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Rajasthan. This is indicative of good to excellent crop conditions, setting our median yield estimate at 3.49 tons per harvested hectare.

Rabobank sees Brazil’s grain ports near limit

The volume of Brazilian exports of soybeans and corn is expected to exceed the capacity of the country’s ports by 2027, Rabobank said in the report “Can Brazil’s infrastructure handle booming G&O production?”

Currently, the shipping capacity of Brazilian ports is 178 million tonnes. However, according to the bank, the investments planned for the next two years should add only 15 million tonnes to the capacity of the port terminals.

For the Dutch bank, this expansion will be insufficient to account for Brazil’s increasing soybean and corn supply. Rabobank calculates that the soybean area in the country will grow 3.5% per year in the 2023-2030 period. With this, the bank projects, oilseed production will rise from 159 million to 206 million by the end of the decade.

In the case of corn, the harvest will rise from 123 million tonnes to 180 million tonnes by the 2029/30 harvest, Rabobank estimates. The expansion of off-season corn harvest will drive the increase in grain production.

With the growth of the grain harvest and the limitations of the port infrastructure, the country will have to invest in increasing the processing capacity of corn and soybeans, the bank said. Brazil may not be able to export all the growing production of grains and oilseeds due to the lack of investment in infrastructure and restrictions such as the new anti-deforestation law of the European Union, Rabobank said in the report.

The Dutch bank estimates that one of the consequences of the low investment in logistics structure, in a scenario of increased domestic grain production, will be the continuous increase in freight costs. The report also says that more and more resources for investment in storage will come out of the pockets of producers. Historically, industrial companies and cooperatives have concentrated their investments in grain warehouses in the country.

Russian Wheat Exports Seen at Record High for Any April: SovEcon

Russian wheat exports are seen reaching 4.6m tons this month, a record for the month of April, due to competitive supplies, according to SovEcon.

• That’s up from 4.4m tons last year and 2.9m tons on average, it said in a report
• The “competitive edge of Russian wheat remains strong,” SovEcon said, pointing to lower prices than in France
• The resumption of navigation in rivers including Volga-Don canal may also have contributed, it said
• NOTE: Shipments usually slow in the winter as some river navigation closes due to ice
• SovEcon Managing Director Andrey Sizov expects to see a “notable slowdown” during the next two months as major importers will probably switch to purchases of new crops
• He also said a dispute between Russia and TD Rif, one of the country’s top grain traders, hasn’t significantly impacted exports

Paraguay soybean production unchanged thanks to widespread dryness – LSEG Commodities Research & Forecast

2023/24 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 10.1 [9.4–10.8] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2023/24 Paraguay soybean production is unchanged from our last estimate at 10.1 [9.4-10.5] million tons thanks to widespread dryness off-setting concerns of excessive moisture.

Our area estimate is fractionally below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 3.55 thousand hectares, which projects national level production and yield at 10.3 million tons and 2.9 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. LSEG Ag Research’s 2.9 tph).

Pakistan Sees 29.7m Tons Wheat Output This Yr, Missing Target

The govt’s Federal Committee on Agriculture estimates the grain output at 29.7 million tons vs 32m tons target, National Food Security ministry says in a statement.

• The wheat production will be 5.4% higher than last year
• NOTE: Farmers start harvesting wheat in April
• Committee sets target to produce 10.8m bales cotton
• Targets to harvest 8.7 million tons rice and 76.7 million tons sugarcane
• Committee seeks quick decisions on importing fertilizer in case of shortage this year
• Weather department forecast normal to slightly above normal rains during April-June cultivation of crops

China’s end-March sow herd at 39.92 million, down 3.6% q/q

China had 39.92 million sows at the end of March, down 3.6% from the previous quarter and down 7.3% from the previous year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Thursday.

The number of pigs slaughtered by pig enterprises in the first quarter fell 2.2% from the year before to 194.55 million.

Brazil Fertilizers Stable to Higher as Demand Moves to Soybeans

Fertilizer prices were mixed in Brazil as nitrogen demand remains at a seasonal lull and sellers switch to potash and phosphates for soybeans. Urea prices were up after several weeks of decline, with ammonium sulfate also strengthening while phosphates and potash stayed stable.

 

 

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