Global Ag News for Apr 25.23

TOP HEADLINES

Lavrov Sees No Progress on Russian Part of Black Sea Grain Deal

Russia sees no progress in meeting its demands regarding implementation of the Black sea grain initiative, said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after his talks with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

“We don’t see a will from Western countries to implement what is necessary to achieve a successful realization” of the Secretary General’s initiative for a packaged approach to agricultural-product exports from Ukraine and Russia, Lavrov said after they met Monday to discuss the war and the Black Sea deal.

Russia has previously threatened to pull out of the UN-mediated grain pact, if restrictions on its own grain and fertilizer exports aren’t resolved by mid-May. The UN says the deal is vital to ensuring global food supplies.

Guterres gave Lavrov a letter for President Vladimir Putin, “outlining a proposed way forward aimed at the improvement, extension and expansion of the deal,” according to a UN readout. Lavrov said it would be studied. Guterres also sent letters to leaders of Turkey and Ukraine, other parties to the pact.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 263/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 ; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 14 3/4 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 12 1/4; Soymeal down $5.40; Soyoil down 0.76.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 46 1/4 in SRW, down 47 in HRW, down 54 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 27 1/4; Soybeans down 38 3/4; Soymeal down $23.10; Soyoil down 2.81.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 18.6% in SRW, down 6.2% in HRW, down 10.1% in HRS; Corn is down 3.9%; Soybeans down 3.3%; Soymeal down 8.0%; Soyoil down 17.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil down 6; Palm oil down 28; Corn down 8 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 68 ringgit (-1.84%) at 3637.

There were changes in registrations (-10 Soyoil). Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 11 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 603 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 24 were: SRW Wheat down 4,800 contracts, HRW Wheat up 107, Corn down 31,858, Soybeans down 14,205, Soymeal down 11,160, Soyoil down 41.

Northern Plains Forecast: Below-normal temperatures continue in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next week but will still be warm enough to continue melting the snowpack in the region. A system moving through later this week will bring in scattered showers, mostly in the form of rain despite the cooler temperatures. Rain should not be heavy enough to increase pressure on the ongoing flooding across the Red River by too much, but the colder temperatures will slow the drying process, limiting fieldwork and planting.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A system will bring more widespread showers to the drought areas over the next few days and could be substantial in some areas. That will help to reduce the impact of the drought but won’t make much of a dent in it. Additional showers could be possible late this week with another system. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions, but the increased soil moisture would favor corn and soybean planting and establishment.

Midwest Forecast: A system continued through the Midwest this weekend with scattered showers and a rush of colder air. That produced some frosts and freezes on Sunday and Monday mornings. Additional frosts continue this week. The cold air may cause damage to more-developed wheat and emergent corn and soybeans. Showers will be limited for most of the week, but a system will come through late week and weekend with widespread showers, mostly in the form of rain. Cooler temperatures will generally be in place into early May, unfavorable for planting and somewhat dangerous for additional frosts.

Delta Forecast: A front moved through the Delta with widespread precipitation on Friday and more are expected with a couple of systems this week. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month. Northern areas may catch a frost as well.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A system brought some showers to northern Argentina Sunday and will continue there Monday. Most of the agricultural areas missed out and conditions are favorable for harvesting a severely damaged crop. Winter wheat areas are in need of more moisture as the crop will start to be planted in the next week or two.

The player sheet for 4/24 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES CANCELLATION: The U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday morning that private exporters reported cancellations of corn sales to China totaling 327,000 tonnes.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 43,500 tonnes of rice, European traders. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is April 25.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline to submit price offers is May 2.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

TODAY

US Inspected 914k Tons of Corn for Export, 375k of Soybean

In week ending April 20, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 375k tons vs 530k the previous wk, 607k a yr ago
• Wheat: 364k tons vs 252k the previous wk, 290k a yr ago
• Corn: 914k tons vs 1,237k the previous wk, 1,666k a yr ago

EU Soft-Wheat Yield Outlook for This Year Trimmed Slightly: MARS

This year’s average soft-wheat yield is seen at 5.96 tons/hectare, down slightly from a March estimate, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report.

• MARS also lowered the barley yield estimate
• Fair conditions have been seen across most of Europe
• Surplus rainfall in large parts of northern Europe was welcomed after a dry February, but caused planting delays for sugar beet, potatoes and/or spring barley in Britain, northern France and Benelux countries
• In northern Italy and Spain, irrigation concerns amid low water reserves is leading to a “substantial reduction in planted area and/or shifts from rice or maize to more drought-tolerant crops”
• Says some rain-fed areas might not be sown at all

Brazil farmers harvest 92% of soybean-planted area -AgRural

Brazilian farmers have harvested 92% of the soybean area planted for 2022/23 through last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up six percentage points from the previous week.

At the same time last year, 91% of the Brazilian soy fields had been reaped, AgRural said in a statement, noting fieldwork has been completed in all center-western and southeastern states.

Argentine transporters end strike that threatened grains shipments

A union of Argentine transporters on Monday ended a strike that was posing a threat to the country’s grains shipments, local agriculture exporters groups said.

The transporters began the strike Monday morning, raising concerns over activity at the Rosario agro-port hub and forcing exporters to rely on dwindling grain reserves at the terminals.

The country’s government and the union signed a memorandum of understanding with the commitment to lift any measure of force in place, within the framework of a “table for dialogue and social peace,” the transportation ministry said in a statement.

The Single Freight Carriers Union (Siunfletra), which brings together truck owners, had been asking for an increase in the tariffs on the transportation of merchandise and for a seat at the table at the meeting where these rates are decided.

The ministry added it would work on a policy “that establishes that the tariff schemes, which to date have an indicative nature, become floor or base tariffs and that they would be mandatory for the suppliers.”

Earlier, transporters prevented the passage of trucks carrying grains in the province of Santa Fe, where the Rosario terminals are located, practically paralyzing the entry of vehicles to one of the largest export centers in the world.

In Argentina, more than 80% of grain transportation is done with cargo trucks.

“The transport of land cargo is in an emergency. The rates are derisory. You can’t cover the costs of the truck, you don’t have profitability,” said Daniel Seanopolo, a representative of the port branch of Siunfletra.

Argentina’s corn and soybean harvest, which has been hit by an intense drought, has just begun, meaning traffic is usually intense at this time of year in Argentina.

A source from the chamber of grain exporters and processors (CIARA-CEC) said that shipments remained steady on Monday despite the strike.

Brazil 2022/23 Soy Harvest 92% Done as of April 20: AgRural

Compares with 86% in previous week and 91% a year ago, according to an emailed statement from consulting firm AgRural.

2022/23 corn harvest reached 88% as of April 20, compared to 82% in previous week and 88% a year before

WHEAT/CEPEA: Quotations drop in Brazil and abroad; dollar rises

Despite the dollar appreciation against the Real, wheat prices dropped in Brazil and abroad last week. In Brazil, pressure came majorly from low demand. Many farmers have been away from the market, monitoring crops and claiming that the current prices are not attractive to them. This scenario added to the national holiday on Friday, 21 (Day of Tiradentes), kept liquidity low, with only sporadic deals being closed.

Sowing of the new Brazilian crop has been slow in Paraná State. According to data from Seab/Deral, 1% of the State area had been by April 17th.

As for prices, despite the dollar appreciation against the Real – by 2.7% between April 14-20, to BRL 5.052 on Thursday, 20 –, wheat prices continued to fade in the domestic market. Cepea surveys show that, between April 14-20, the prices paid to wheat farmers dropped a steep 5.84% in Rio Grande do Sul, 2.88% in Paraná and 2.1% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 3.68% in RS, 2.99% in PR, 2.46% in São Paulo and 1.79% in SC.

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS – According to Secex, in the first two weeks of April, Brazil imported 143.4 thousand tons of wheat, against 511.7 thousand tons in April/22. Exports totaled 152.5 thousand tons in that period, against 147.2 thousand tons in April last year.

Malaysian palm oil board sees higher exports to China this year

Malaysia’s exports of palm oil and palm-based products to China are expected to increase this year following better cooperation between the two countries, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said on Tuesday.

China was Malaysia’s second largest palm oil export market in 2022 and accounted for 11.2% of Malaysia’s exports, according to MPOB data.

An agreement between MPOB and the China Chamber of Commerce of Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce, and Animal By-products (CFNA) earlier this month will broaden cooperation and strengthen Malaysia’s position in the Chinese market, MPOB said in a statement.

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