Global Ag News for Apr 22.22

TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are down 12 1/4 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans down 16 1/4; Soymeal down $0.41; Soyoil down 0.29.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 40 1/4 in SRW, down 19 1/4 in HRW, up 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 38; Soymeal up $0.41; Soyoil up 2.46. For the month to date wheat prices are up 62 1/4 in SRW, up 108 1/4 in HRW, up 75 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 58; Soybeans up 105 1/4; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 10.71.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 37% in SRW, up 41% in HRW, up 17% in HRS; Corn is up 34%; Soybeans up 30%; Soymeal up 13%; Soyoil up 44%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 14 yuan; Soymeal up 6; Soyoil up 54; Palm oil unchanged; Corn down 13 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 36 ringgit (+0.57%) at 6349.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 99 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 21 were: SRW Wheat up 1,575 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,010, Corn down 7,142, Soybeans down 4,438, Soymeal down 4,228, Soyoil down 671.

Northern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal south and well below normal north Friday, well below normal west and near to above normal east Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, south Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday, below normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, below to well below normal Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Friday, well above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Scattered showers east Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday. Scattered showers east Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday, near to above normal west and well below normal east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal west and below to well below normal east Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

 Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers west Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

The player sheet for 4/21 had funds: net sellers of 10,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 13,500 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 47,120 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 27,320 tonnes of food-quality wheat from Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat

Argentina 2022-23 Wheat Planting Est. 6.5m Ha: Grains Exchange

Argentine wheat planting is expected to cover 6.5m hectares in the 2022-23 season, a 3% decrease from the previous year, the Buenos Aires grains exchange wrote in a report on April 20.

• Decrease represents a loss of 200,000 hectares of wheat planting area from last season
• Despite higher wheat prices globally, increases in input costs, the improvement in relative margins of the barley, and uncertainty over changes to policies that affect wheat cultivation are contributing to the decrease
• The grains exchange plans to release estimates for production and exports for wheat and barley on May 12

China to Auction 500,000 Tons of Imported Soybeans April 29

China plans to sell 500,000 tons of imported soybeans from state stockpiles on April 29, according to a statement from the National Grain Trade Center, an online trading platform for the reserves.

• Bidders are limited to domestic soy crushers with GMO soybean processing permit

Planalytics Raises U.S. Winter Wheat Forecast to 49.5 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s U.S. winter wheat crop yield is up slightly from previous forecast of 49.2 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday in its third forecast of the season so far.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
• Kansas 44.4 vs 44.1
• Oklahoma 31.1 vs 31.2

Global Grains Trade to Fall in 2022-23 for Second Season: IGC

Global grains trade will contract to 407m tons in the coming 2022-23 season, down from 416m tons this year, the International Grains Council said in its first outlook for the season ahead.

• Estimates are “especially tentative given the conflict in the Black Sea region”
• Production will fall to 2.275b tons, from 2.287b tons this year
  • Includes a 13m-ton drop for corn, 2m-ton drop for sorghum and 1m-ton drop for wheat
  • Barley and oats output will increase
• Stockpiles to shrink to 581m tons, from 608m tons this year
  • Wheat inventory seen falling to a three-season low
  • Corn stockpiles will fall 21m tons y/y
• “Despite forecasts for slower-than-average growth in feed and food uses, tied to potentially high prices and resulting demand rationing, world consumption is expected to edge to a new peak”
• Soybean production seen rebounding to 383m tons in 2022-23, from 349m tons this year
  • Stockpiles will increase by 10m tons
• Rice production and stockpiles also expected to increase

Russia’s Spring-Planting Pace Is Ahead of Last Year: Interfax

Russia has planted 3.5m hectares of spring crops so far, Interfax reported, citing comments from Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev.

• Compares with 3.1m hectares at the same time last year
• Good weather allowed farmers to start field work 2-3 weeks earlier than usual; spring sowing is expected to cover 53.6m hectares
• 97% of winter crops are in good condition, more than last year
• Ministry sees grains harvest totaling 123m tons this year, compared with 121.4m tons last year

Russia suspends publication of import-export data to avoid ‘speculation’

Russia’s customs service has decided to temporarily suspend publication of import and export data in order to exclude errors and “speculation”, the head of the service said on Thursday.

The move will make it much harder to gauge the impact on trade of sweeping western sanctions imposed against Russia since it sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it calls a special military operation.

“The Federal Customs Service is not publishing statistics on imports and exports. I support this decision, I think it is justified in order to avoid incorrect estimates, speculation and discrepancies regarding imports. This is a temporary measure,” Interfax news agency quoted the head of the service, Vladimir Bulavin, as saying.

The customs service used to disclose import and export data for the country’s most important products in the first 10 days of each month.

Earlier on Thursday, the service, when asked to comment on the delay, told Reuters that “the data you are interested in is not available as of today”. It last disclosed data for January in March.

Russian imports fell by “tens of percent” in March due to logistical constraints and the departure of foreign companies, Kremlin aide Maxim Oreshkin said in mid-April.

Russia is a major exporter of oil, gas, metals, wheat and vegetable oils. It imports hundreds of million of dollars of bananas, citrus fruit and coffee, among other products, each year.

Earlier this month, Russia’s Energy Ministry suspended publication of monthly oil production and export data, while the central bank stopped disclosing data on foreign trade and external debt.

Ukraine’s 2022 Grain Harvests to Halve Y/y Amid War: IGC

Ukraine’s grain production is estimated at 44.9m tons in the coming 2022-23 season, the International Grains Council says Thursday in a report.

• That’s down from 86.5m tons in 2021-22
• Of the total, wheat production could fall to 19.4m tons, from 33m tons
  • Corn output may drop to 18.6m tons, from 41.9m tons
• Ukraine grain exports seen at 28.3m tons, versus 47.2m tons
  • Meanwhile, Russia sales will grow to 41.8m tons, versus 38.2m tons
  • Sales also expected to rise from Canada, EU and Brazil

Egypt Has 2.6M Tons of Imported Wheat in Storage: Minister

Country also has enough sugar for 6 months and seeks to be self-sufficient in the commodity by 2023, Supply Minister Aly El-Moselhy says in televised comments.

• Vegetable oil enough for 5.4 months
• Egypt cultivated 250k feddans of soybean in 2022; 100k feddans of sunflower

Peru Farmers Strike Nationwide to Ask for Dissolving Congress

Peru farmers are blocking roads around the country to ask for the dissolution of Congress and for an agrarian reform promised by President Pedro Castillo, according to images broadcast on the major TV networks.

Farmers, who are also asking authorities for an end to monopolies, are calling for a Constituent Assembly

Sovecon Boosts Russian Wheat Crop Estimate to Record 87.4M Tons

Sovecon raised its Russian wheat crop estimate for this year to a record high of 87.4m tons because of good crop conditions and availability of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides.

• Crop was previously expected at 86.5m tons, Andrey Sizov, managing director of the research firm, said in an email
• NOTE: Russia’s previous record wheat harvest was 85.4m tons in 2020-21, according to USDA
• Sees 2022-23 wheat exports at 41m tons, from 33.9m tons in the current season, provided there are no sanctions on food exports or escalation in the war
• “Weather in recent months has been friendly for winter wheat, leading to below-average winter kill,” he said
  • This fully offsets a 5% decrease in planting area

IKAR Raises Russia’s 2022 Wheat-Crop Estimate to 83.5m Tons

Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies raised its estimate for Russia’s wheat crop to 83.5 million tons from 83 million tons, general director Dmitry Rylko said by email.

• Estimate “sounds quite conservative” if compared with “the currently strong state of winter wheat across European Russia,” Rylko said
• NOTE: Estimate is below Sovecon’s projection that Russia’s wheat crop this year will reach a record high of 87.4 million tons; Russia’s previous record wheat harvest was 85.4 million tons in 2020-21, according to USDA

Malaysia Keeps Crude Palm Oil Export Tax at 8% in May

Gazetted price for crude palm oil at 6,759.22 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 8%, according to a statement from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• NOTE: Tax has been kept at 8% since Jan. 2021, following government exemption in July-December 2020
• NOTE: Export duty structure starts at 3% when FOB prices for CPO are in the 2,250-2,400 ringgit per ton range
• Maximum tax rate is 8% when prices are above 3,450 ringgit per ton

French Wheat Ratings Ease, Corn Sowing Pace Trails 2021: AgriMer

The share of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition eased to 91% as of April 18, the first weekly decline since early March, according to the latest FranceAgriMer data.

• That remains the best score for this point in the season since 2016
• Corn was 32% planted, versus 8% the prior week
• Compares to 37% at this time last year

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 14% Last Week

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Up 6% Week Ended April 13