Global Ag News 9.17
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 5; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 20 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 28 yuan in soybeans, up 23 in Corn, up 16 in Soymeal, up 150 in Soyoil, and up 102 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 80 ringgit at 2,989 (basis December) at midsession, an eight month high on increased demand from China ahead of a key festival week.
U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest turned with some differences in the models. The GFS remains dry across the region, the European has light rains for the northeast sections of the Midwest, others remaining dry. Temps run below average but no cold air threats. The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has below average rainfall and average to above average temps.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 20,000 Corn; bought 20,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 6,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 21,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 66,000 Corn; net long 213,000 Soybeans; net long 44,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 97,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,100 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,400; Corn up 8,100; Soybeans up 11,400 contracts; Soymeal up 5,000 lots, and; Soyoil up 9,200.
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 15; Soybeans down 11; Soyoil down 20; Rice down 4; HRW down 6)—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 277; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 1,915 lots; Soymeal 300; Rice ZER0; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,288.
Tender Activity—Egypt bought 235,000t Russian, Polish wheat—Japan bought 104,000t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat—Jordan bought 120,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea bought 38,000t optional-origin wheat—Algeria seeks 30,000t optional-origin soymeal—
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended September 11th averaged 926,000 barrels per day (down 1.59% versus a week ago, down 7.68% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 19.798 mil barrels (down 0.98% versus a week ago, down 14.80% versus last year); corn use for the week was 91.9 mil bu (52.7 mil last week) and versus the 97.9 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections.
The Trump administration is considering at least $300 million in cash aid to U.S. oil refiners that are denied exemptions to U.S. biofuel blending laws for the 2019 compliance year; although the administration has yet to rule on the 2019 waivers, it is considering basing the amount allocated on those who applied for exemptions; the move would aim to help refiners that must comply with U.S. laws requiring they blend biofuels into their fuel mix.
A Farm Futures magazine survey of U.S. planting intentions for 2021 indicated that producers expect to add soybean acres in the coming crop year in response to rising prices, while corn acres should decline slightly.
Wire story reported Chicago-traded soybeans have been on an uncharacteristic run over the last several weeks, breaking through double-digit prices for the first time in the U.S.-China trade war era, possibly incentivizing U.S. producers to significantly boost bean plantings next year; the recent rally is unprecedented.
China Xiangtai Food Co. Ltd. said its Chongqing Ji Mao Cang Feed subsidiary completed a $7.2 million sale of soybean meal over three months, after purchasing an aggregate of 18,000 tons of supply from China Grain Reserve Corp.’s Zhenjiang branch office.
Brazilian farmers in the north and northeast of the country, regions dominated by the Amazon rainforest and Cerrado savanna, are expected to expand their soy fields by more than 6% in the 2020/21 crop season, the fastest rate in four years; separate forecasts from consultancies Arc Mercosul and AgRural show that in percentage terms the regions will be the fastest growing in all of Brazil for soy; both outfits forecast the regions to add more than 350,000 hectares (865,000 acres) this crop season.
Russia has harvested 114.8 million tons of grain before drying and cleaning from 82% of the area with an average yield of 2.93 tons per hectare, data from the agriculture ministry’s analytical centre showed.
Night frosts expected in central, northern and eastern Ukraine this week could present more trouble for winter grain sowing for the 2021 harvest, weather forecasters said; Ukraine is facing the worst weather conditions for winter sowing in at least 10 years because of severe drought across most of the country.
Ukraine’s APK-Inform agriculture consultancy revised down its forecast for Ukraine’s 2020/21 grain harvest and export forecast because of severe drought across most the country; Ukraine is likely to harvest 71.3 million tons of grain in 2020, including 25.5 million tons of wheat and 35.1 million tons of corn, the consultancy said; the export could total 51.2 million tons in the 2020/21 July-June season, including 28.5 million tons of corn.
Ukraine, the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter, is likely to reduce its sunoil exports to 6.17 million tons in 2020/21 season from 6.63 million in 2019/20 due to a smaller sunseed harvest, analyst APK-Inform said; the consultancy said the 2020 sunseed crop could fall to 15.53 million tons versus 16.10 million tons in 2019.
Belarus has almost completed the 2020 grain harvest, threshing 8 million tons of grain, the agriculture ministry said; the yield averaged 3.69 tons per hectare compared with 3.11 tons a year earlier.
Farm office FranceAgriMer said it expected the average protein content of this year’s French soft wheat harvest to be at 11.6%; in a final estimate for the 2020 soft wheat crop’s quality, based on a survey with crop institute Arvalis, it also pegged the average specific weight at 79.2 kilos per hectolitre.
Farm office FranceAgriMer lowered its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in the current 2020/21 season to 6.6 million tons from an initial projection of 7.75 million in July; that would be 51% below a record 13.46 million tones estimated for the 2019/20 season, a figure revised from 13.6 million in July; like other forecasters, FranceAgriMer has been anticipating a steep drop in exports in 2020/21 after France’s wheat crop fell by around a quarter this year due to adverse weather.
Euronext wheat reversed from a two-week low to end higher on Wednesday as traders assessed news that Algeria may be about to open its wheat import tenders to cheaper Black Sea origins; benchmark December milling wheat closed up 1.50 euros, or 0.8%, at 188.25 euros ($222.85) a ton.
Five more cases of African swine fever (ASF) found in wild boars in the eastern German state of Brandenburg on Tuesday have been confirmed, the Brandenburg state government and federal agriculture ministry said; this brings to six the number of cases of swine fever confirmed in wild boars in Germany in the last week.
Pig prices in Germany have steadied at 1.27 euros a kg this week, despite a series of import bans after a case of African swine fever (ASF) was found in the country, the association of German animal farmers VEZG said; prices had been about 1.47 a kg slaughter weight before the ASF case was confirmed on Thursday, and fell to 1.27 euros a kg on Friday.
An increase to planted area and expected rainfall raise 2020/21 Australia wheat production by 2% to 26.3 [23.2–30.8] million tons; in its September Crop Report, ABARES raised Australia wheat production to 28.9 million tons on the basis of expected favorable spring weather.
Algeria is planning to open up its market to imports of Russian wheat, a French exporters group said, a long-anticipated move that could shake up competition in one of the world’s largest consumers of the grain; the country is changing its import terms to allow the shipment of wheat of Black Sea origin, including Russian and Ukrainian grain.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.