Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices higher, testing levels near all-time highs last seen in October, as markets weigh the monetary policy outlook from the Fed next year, while geopolitical tensions heated up. November’s nonfarm payrolls report, which came in above expectations but showed an uptick in the unemployment rate and largely reflected subdued hiring conditions. November payrolls rose by 64,000, while revisions to August and September saw the labor market shed 33,000 jobs. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks resurfaced after President Trump ordered a “total and complete” blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, following last week’s seizure and a US military buildup, partly offsetting easing risks tied to progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks. Markets now await November’s CPI data due on Thursday, followed by PCE figures on Friday, for further insight into inflation pressures.
Markets will also monitor any news regarding the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, as the president recently signaled that he expects an unfavorable ruling. President Trump has continuously reiterated that the effects of appealing the tariffs could be disastrous for the economy, signaling that he could be expecting an unfavorable ruling towards his trade policies. Trump did suggest that the tariffs could stay but would require a longer implementation process, while calling the ruling the greatest threat to national security in history. Trump argued that his method of instituting tariffs is far less cumbersome than other methods, suggesting that if the court knocks down his tariffs, there are still feasible ways to implement them.
Silver: Silver futures are substantially higher, gaining 4.3% to $66.03 as November’s labor data and geopolitical tensions supported safe haven demand for the metal alongside supportive fundamentals. Industrial demand for silver is expected to rise through 2030 as growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence drives consumption, the Silver Institute noted in a recent research report. Prices have been further supported by persistently tight supply and falling global inventories, resulting in a supply-demand deficit that is expected to continue over the coming years.
Platinum: Platinum is up 3.1% at $1,935.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices rose as persistent worries about potential shortages spurred buying despite weak data and worries about the property sector in top consumer China at the beginning of the week. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME gained 1.2% to $11,732. Supply disruptions and continued shipments to the US are expected to offer copper a solid price floor but focus on demand in China will also play a large factor in price direction. Thin liquidity conditions are expected until year end, leaving the metal vulnerable to volatility. Also supporting the metals market were higher oil prices after President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela. Energy is a key input for producing minerals, meaning that higher oil prices feed into mining costs and metal prices
Disappointing economic reports out of China came Sunday night, showing retail sales growth that was much weaker than expected, while fixed asset investment fell 2.6%, which was worse than an expected -2.3% and below the previous -1.7% reading. China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low, while retail sales posted their worst performance since the country abruptly ended its “zero-COVID” curbs, highlighting the urgent need for new growth drivers heading into 2026. China has recently pledged to keep expanding domestic demand and the broader economy in 2026.
Flows to COMEX warehouses continued due to higher prices in the US, leaving tighter supply elsewhere around the globe. The US excluded refined copper from the 50% import tariffs that came into force in August but kept it under review, which has led to expectations that US tariffs on copper will be announced in mid-2026. That dynamic has lent continued support to LME -COMEX arbitrage, as US inventories of copper reach over 500,000 tons. As long as US prices remain elevated due to tariff expectations, flows into the US are expected, keeping LME-COMEX arbitrage trade going.
Zinc: Zinc added 0.4% to $3,052.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose 0.6% in official activity to $2,894. Australia’s South32 said it would place the Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique under care and maintenance by March after failing to secure a power deal with the government. Morgan Stanley expects aluminum prices to reach $3,250 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 as demand outpaces supply.
Tin: Tin climbed 2.6% to $42,100.
Lead: Lead was up 1.1% at $1,963.
Nickel: Nickel advanced 1.2% to $14,430.
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