Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US Dollar is unch. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower on profit taking. US Fed Chairman said Fed can take time to lower rates. CBOT closed Sunday night and Monday for holiday.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.37. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil were lower while palmoil was higher. Dalian soybean and soymeal prices are at 2 week lows. Palmoil is at 3 month highs. USDA left China soybean imports at 109 mmt. USDA left Brazil soybean crop at 169.0 and but lowered Argentina 3 mmt to 49.0. Brazil soybean crush is est at a record 55 mmt. C/S Brazil is seeing rains. India weather remains warm and dry. India vegoil stocks are at 3 year low. USDA left 2024/25 soybean carryout at 380. Some could eventually see US soybean exports and crush up 25 mil bu each higher than USDA.
CORN
CH is near 4.84. CH dropped to lower end of a 4.80-5.00 range after USDA left US 2024/25 carryout at 1,540 mil bu. Funds remain large spec longs. C Brazil is seeing rains. Argentina continues to see needed rains. USDA dropped Brazil crop at 1 mmt to 126 mmt with some even 1-2 mmt lower due to late plantings. USDA dropped Argentina crop 1 mmt to 50.0. US Midwest is forecasted to see 2 winter events, one mid week and another this weekend. Some could eventually see US corn exports and ethanol up 100 mil bu each higher than USDA but feed and residual down 175 mil bu. USDA dropped China corn imports 3 mmt to 10.0 and vs 23.4 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.81. KWH is near 5.95. MWH is near 6.23. World 2025 weather uncertainty could be offering support. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. US plains are dry with colder temps newt week. India is warm and dry. USDA est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 794 vs USDA 798 due to higher food use. USDA lowered EU export 1 mmt to 28.0 vs 37.9 ly and Russia exports .5 to 45.5 vs 55.5 ly. USDA lowered World imports 4 mmt and end stocks 1 mmt. USDA lowered China imports 2.5 mmt to 8.0 and vs 13.6 ly.
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